文｜半导体产业纵横

​guoneishichangdramxianhuojiagezaizhengge11yuefenchixuzoudi，youqishiddr4shoudaodechongjiyouweiyanzhong。xiangbizhixia，nandshancunjiagexianshichuwendingjixiang。

yeneiguji，shuangshiyiqijian dram mozuzhengtixiaoliangyu 2023 niantongqixiangbixiajiangyue 20%。danweixiaoliangxiajiang 16%，pingjunshoujiaxiajiangyue 9%。zaichanpinjiagegongxianfangmian，2024nianshuangshiyiqijian，ssddexiaoshoubiaoxianyichaoyuedrammozu。jinnianshuangshiyi，zhangjiangcunchuqixiadezhitaipinpaibiaoxianliangyan，zaijingdongshixianlessdpinleijiaoyizonge（gmv）hexiaoliangdeshuangliaodiyi，chaoguolesanxing。

jinru12yue，suizheguoneicuxiaohuodongjieshuyijihaiwaishengdanjiebeihuogongzuodeshouwei，cunchuxianhuoshichangjinruxiangduipingwenqi。caigouxuqiudejiangdi，rangxianhuojiagesuizhipingwen，shichangzhengtitaishiwuxianzhubianhua。shichangbiaoshi，jingguo2～3gejidudekucundiaozheng，kucunyaliyixianzhuhuanjie。yujizhizaoshanggengyangedegongyingkongzhijiangzhujianhuifubuhuoxuqiu。yeyouyeneirenshibiaoshi，jinqiyoubufenyuanchangkonghuoxishou，lingbufendijiaziyuanchuxianhuizhangxianxiang。

01、DDR4价格大跌

shancunshichangshujuxianshi，zaiguoquliugeyuezhong，suizhefenxiaoqudaodelianxuweisuo，ssdhedrammokuaidejiagexiajiangle20%yishang。zailianxulianggejidujiagexiajianghou，11yuedexianhuoshichangrengranchuxianbodong，guoshengdegongyinghepiruandebuhuoxuqiujiangdramjiagetuizhidiyuquniantongqideshuiping。

11yuedexianhuoshichangshujuxianshi，ddr4jiagedafuxiadie，4gb、8gbhe16gbdengrongliangdeyuedudiefuzai8%zhi10%zhijian。zidisijidukaishiyilai，jiagejixuzhubuxiajiang。ddr4 16gb 3200dejiagecong10yuechude2.92meiyuanxiajiangdao11yuedide2.40meiyuan，leijixiajiangle17.8%。tongyang，ddr4 4gb ettdejiagezailianggeyueneixiajiangle16%。xiangbizhixia，ddr5dejiagebaochidegengweiwending，tongqijinxiajianglezhonggeweishu。

congguoneixiaofeidianzishichanglaikan，ddr4neicunzi2014nianwenshiyilai，pingjieqiwendingdexingneng、guangfandejianrongxinghexiangduiqinmindejiage，xunsuchengweileshichangshangdezhuliuxuanze。qigongzuodianyawei1.2v，shujuchuanshulvkeda1600-3200 mt/s，zuidadimmrongliangkeda64gb，zheixietexingshideddr4zaixingneng、nengxiaohechengbenzhijianqudelelianghaodepingheng。

zaidangqianddr4neicunjiagepubianshajiadeqingkuangxia，qixingjiabiyoushigengjiatuxian。duiyudaduoshurichangbangong、youxiyulehechangguiduorenwuchulideyonghulaishuo，ddr4neicunyijingwanquannenggoumanzuxuqiu，qiewuxuchengdangaoangdeshengjichengben。

ddr3、ddr4dengchengshuchanpinjiagezoushiyuxiaofeixingchanpinzhongduanxiaoshou、gongyingliankucunquhuagengzhijiexiangguan。congdangqiandeshichangshoujialaikan，ddr4neicundejiageyijingjiangzhilishidiwei，shichangfenxi，ruoxiaofeixingshichangxuqiuhaozhuan，2025nianxiabannianchengshuxingcunchuqixingqing，huoyoufanzhuankeneng，danshangbannianyingrengchengxiangongguoyuqiudezhuangkuang。

zaiguojichangshangmiaozhunddr5yuhbmdetongshi，ddr4zaizhongguodalushichanghaiyoubuxiaodefazhankongjian。

02、DDR5保持韧性

ddr5neicunzuoweixinyidaineicunjishu，dailailezhuduogaijin。qigongzuodianyajiangdizhi1.1v，shujuchuanshulvtishengzhi3200-6400 mt/s，zuidadimmronglianggengshigaoda128gb。zheixietishengshideddr5zaidaikuan、gonghaoheneicunrongliangfangmianjunyouyuddr4，weichulidaxingshujuji、yunxingfuzaruanjianhejinxingduorenwuchulitigonglegenggaodexiaolv。

danddr5neicunrengmeiyouyinglaiquanmianpujishidai。shouxian，ddr5neicundejiagesuiranyousuoxiajiang，danrengranmingxiangaoyuddr4。duiyuyusuanyouxiandeputongwanjialaishuo，shengjichengbenkenengshiyigebuxiaodefudan。qici，ddr5neicunxuyaojianrongdezhubanhecpuzhichi，zheiyiweizheyonghuzaijinxingshengjishikenenghaixuyaogenghuanqitayingjian，jinyibuzengjialeshengjichengbenheshijianchengben。

duiyuputongwanjialaishuo，ruguodangqiandeddr4neicunyijingnenggoumanzushiyongxuqiu，neimeshengjiddr5neicunsuodailaidexingnengtishengkenengbingbuxianzhu，ershengjichengbenquexiangduijiaogao。yinci，congxingjiabidejiaoduchufa，putongwanjiazaidangqianjieduanjiangddr4neicunshengjiweiddr5neicundebiyaoxingbingbuda。

congguoneishichanglaikan，daludedramzhizaoshangzhengtongguotuichujijuxingjiabidechanpinlaikuodashichangfene，youqishizaiddr4neicundeshengchanshang，jiangfudadaojingrende50%。yuanbenyousanxing、skhailishihemeiguangzhizaodexiangtongguigeddr4xinpian，zhuanxiangzhongguozhizaoshangdechanpin，gengjuxingjiabi。zheizhongqingkuangbujinshizhongguochangshanghuodelexindekehu，haiyinfalewaiziqiyedejinzhangqifen，hanqiyekaishidiaozhengshengchancelve，zhujianjianshaoddr4dechanliang，zhuanxianggenggaoduandeddr5hehbmchanpin。

qiansancunchudachangzaihbm3edegongyingjindu，jiangzhijieyingxiangqiduiddr5chanpindegongyingnengli，yejiangzhijieyingxiangddr5dejiagezoushi。

chuantongdrampingjunshoujia，yugucongdiyijizhidisiji，jiechengxiangeweishuzihuandie，qizhong，ddr5jiagezoushi，jiaoddr4jiagebodongxiao。

03、HBM冲出重围

ddr4、ddr5suiranxiaoshoubushenleguan，danhbmzai2024rehuochaotian，tongshishichangyeyucehbmleguandexingqinghuichixudao2025nian。pengboyujidao 2033 nian，shiyong hbm de ai xinpianyujijiangyimeinian 17% desuduzengzhangzhichaoguo 1900 wanpian，youyu ai moxingfuzaxingdezengjia，meipianxinpiande hbm xuqiuyejiangyitongyangdesuduzengzhang。zheiyizengzhangyujijiangshi hbm zongxuqiucong 2023 niande 3.72 yi gb zengjiadao 87 yi gb，nianzengzhanglvwei 37%。

jigouyuce2025niandrampingjunshoujianianzenglvda17.0％；buguo，drampingjunshoujiashangyangdedongli，jinlaizihbmchanpin。trendforceyuqi，2025niandramchanyechanzhinianzeng36.3％zhi1,247.16yimeiyuan、weiyuanchuhuoliangnianzeng24.7％、pingjundanjianianzeng17.0％，sanzhejiechengshuangweishuchengzhang。hbmzaidramshichangdeshentoulvjiangzhubutisheng，yugu2025niandisijidushi，hbmshentoulvyueda10％，hbm3ekeliyujizhan2025nianhbmde85％。

jiudramzongtigongxueryan，2024niandisijidao2025niandiyiji，chengxianduanzangongguoyuqiuhou，zhi2025niandierjihou，suizheshichangkaishibeihuo，jiangzhuanweigongbuyingqiu。dramqiansandachangzhengzaijijibeizhanhbmshichang，2025nianjiangjiakuaichanxianshengjizhi1bnami，zhuyaogongyinghbm3e；2026 nianjiangzaiwang1cnamimaijin，zhuyaogongyingzuixinchanpinhbm4。

quanqiuyunfuwugongsijidaqiyejijitouzishengchengshiaijiangduidramdehouxudailaijijiyingxiang。sanxing、skhailishijimeiguangdengsandadramdachang，fenfenjiangyanfayushengchanzhongxinzhuanxianghbm，yeyingxianglechuantongdramchannengjijiage。

sk hailishi2025 nianshezhileaixinpiankaifabumen。xinshede ai xinpiankaifabumenzhenghele dram、nand hejiejuefangandekaifanengli，zheyanyuxiayidai ai neicundengweilaijishu，xintibadeguanlizheduolaizi hbm he dram denghexinchanpinjingzhenglitishengtuandui，tuxiangongsiduiweilaizengzhangdezhanlvebuju。skhailishijihuayu2025niandiyijidutigongyejierongliangzuida、cengshuzuiduode48gb、16cenghbmchanpinyangpin。

sanxingjihuazai 2025 nianchutuichuyongyu hbm4 de 10 namiguimodediliudai (1c) dram；zai 2026 niantuichuxiangtongguimodediqidai (1d) dram；zai 2027 niantuichuqishoukuanya 10 nami (0a) dram。

gongyinglianxiaoxirenshitoulu，zaizhengfuziyuandedalizhichixia，gongyilianglvkenengbushixinpianzhizaoshangdeshouyaodanyou。zai hbm fazhandeguodujieduan，suizhejingyuanzhizaodezengjia，hbm he ddr5 zhijiande ic gongyijiaochakenenghuidaozhi ddr5 gongyingliangchuxiankuaisubodong。zheiyichushizengzhangkenenghuishenkeyingxiang ddr5 dexiaofeiyingyongshichang。

04、NAND市场保持稳定

zuihou，zailaikanyixianandshichang。

shancunshichangshujuxianshi，2024niandisanjiduquanqiunand flashshichangguimoda190.2yimeiyuan，huanbizengzhang5.7%，tongbizengzhang93.9%。nandjiagecong11yuekaishiwending，512gbjingyuanjiagecong3.3meiyuanxiaofuxiajiangzhi3.2meiyuan。raner，gongyinglianneiburenshizhichu，shijijiaoyijiagerengdiyushichangguapaijiage。11yuechu，xiaofeiji512gb nandjingyuandeyijiayuewei2.9meiyuan，youyujiliejiagejingzheng，yixiebaojiadizhi2.2-2.3meiyuan。2024nianzaoxieshihoudetoujixingqihuojiaoyidaozhilekucunyalihelixichengben，daozhisangeyuehoudedaguimopaoshou。

zaijinglilejigedongdangdejiduhou，zhiyou2-3jiazhuyaodeneicunmokuaizhizaoshangbaoliulekucun，daduoshujiaoxiaodezhizaoshangyijingqingkongletamendekucun。

zi11yuezhongxunyilai，shangyouzhizaoshangshoujinlefahuokongzhi，shi512gbjingyuandexianhuojiageyuguanfangjiagebaochiyizhi。zheiyicelvezhizaiwendingshichang，yinweiniandifahuozhujianjianshao，yibaochijiagewendingbingzhichigaishandenianzhongcaiwuyeji。

shichangfenelaikan，bs businessworld he blocks and files baogaocheng，sanxingshi nand shichangdelingdaozhe，zhanyou 36.9% defene，er sk hynix he solidigm hejizhanyou 22.1%。zhidezhuyideshi，skhailishizaiquanqiunandshichangdefeneyijingcong2020niande11.7%zengzhangdao2024niandierjidude22.5%。

nandshichangchangshangmenchongcicengjingzhengjilie，yuji2025niannandshidaijiangjinru400ceng，2027nianjiangdadao1000ceng。hanguoyeneizhuanjiarenwei，sanxing、skhailishi、meiguangdengdoujiangzai2025niantuichu400cengnandchanpin。

skhailishiyikaishiliangchan321ceng1tb tlc 3d nand flashchanpin。ciqian，nand chanpindezuigaocengshuwei238ceng，skhailishichengweidiyijiachenggongliangchan 300 ceng nand chanpindegongsi。xinkuan 321 ceng 1tb tlc 3d nand deshujuchuanshusuduheduquxingnengfenbietishengle 12% he 13%，shujuduqugonglvxiaolvyetishengle 10% yishang。

sanxingdianzijiangyu2026niantuichuchaoguo400cengdegaorongliang、gaosanredechuizhijianhe（bv）nandshancun，cijuzhizaizengqiangqigenbendejishujingzhengli，bingzhuazhumuqianluohoudeqiyejigutaiyingpan（essd）shichangdejiyu。

neicunxingyelilaizhuanzhuyutongguoguimojingjikuodachannengyijiangdichengben。youyusanxinghe sk hailishizai nand shichangchuyulingxiandiwei，bingyou dram yewudezhichi，zheixiegongsikenenghuijixutouzi nand，jinguankenengchuxiankuisun，bingliyong dram delirunlaizengqiangqizai nand lingyudejishujingzhengli。