记者 | 安晶

zi2011niandexuliyaneizhanyilai，xuliyabashaer·asadezhengfuzaiyicizhanzaishizilukou。

cong2024nian11yue27rikaishi，xuliyafanduipaiwuzhuangzaixuxibeibualeposhengheyidelibushengyuxuliyazhengfujunfashengdaguimojiaohuo。29ri，fanduipaiwuzhuanggongrualeposhengshoufu、xuliyadierdachengshialepo，wei2016nianyilaideshouci。

naxiaalepodefanduipaiwuzhuangxunsutuijin，zaibudaoyizhoushijianliyu12yue5rigongruxuliyazhongbuhamashengshoufuhamashi。hamashizhanlvezhongzhen，weiyulianjiexuliyananbeidem5gaosugonglushang。yanm5gaosugongluconghamawangnan，jiangdidaxuzhongbuzuidachengshihuomusiyijixuliyashoudoudamashige。

hamajulihuomusijin46gongli，julidamashigeyue190gongli。xuliyaneizhanbaofayu“alabozhichun”shiqi，fanzhengfuyundongcongtunisi、aijimanyandaoyemen、libiya、xuliya。hamashishouxianbaofafanzhengfuyouxingdexuliyachengshizhiyi。1982nian，bashaerdefuqin、shirenxuliyazongtonghafeizicengxialingzhenyamusilinxiongdihuizaihamadepanluan。

zhousi，xuliyajunfangfashengmingzhengshifanzhengfuwuzhuangjinruhama，zhuzhazaihamashidezhengfujunyizhongxinbushubingzhuanyidaochengwai。shamujiefangzuzhi（hts）lingdaorenabu·muhanmode·zhulanifashipin，ranghamayinandehuomusi、damashige、delazuohaozhunbei，yingjiefanzhengfuwuzhuangdedaolai。fanzhengfuwuzhuangdebenlunjingongyoushamujiefangzuzhilingdao。

hamabeigongpohou，huomusichengweidamashigedezuihouyidaopingzhang。

xuliyazhengfukongzhizhequanguoyue70%dediqu，xibeibudeyidelibushengshifanzhengfuwuzhuangdejudian，dongbeibuzeshikuerdewuzhuangdedipan。dansuizhefanzhengfuwuzhuangbijinshoudou，xuliyazhengfuzaicimianlinyanjuntiaozhan。

xuliyaneizhansuiranyouguoneidefanzhengfuyundongdianran，dandiquguojiahedaguoruchanghou，waibuliliangduixuliyajushidezouxiangqidaolejuzhongqingzhongdezuoyong。

eluosi、yilanghelibanenzhenzhudangshixuzhengfudeguanjianmengyou，zhengshieluosizai2015nianyingxuzhengfuyaoqiuchubingcaibangzhubashaerzhengfuzhanwenlejiaogen。xuliyafanzhengfuwuzhuangcengdedaotuerqi、shatealabo、kataer、meiguodengduofangzhichi。cicifaqifanpudewuzhuangzhongjiuyouqintuerqiwuzhuang。

“yisilanguo”（isis）zaixuliyalakaxuanbu“dingdou”hou，meiguojiedajiisiszhimingjinruxuliyabingyuxudongbeibudekuerdewuzhuangjieweimengyou，zhijinrengzaixuliyazhuyou900shibing。tuerqizebakuerdewuzhuangshiweigaiguokongbuzuzhikuerdegongrendangdefenzhi，duociduixubeibufadongjunshixingdong。zaixuliyaneizhanchuqi，yiseliechiguanwangtaidu。suizhelibanenzhenzhudangzaixuliyaneizhanzhonghuoyue，yiseliekaishipinfanduixuliyadeyilanghelibanenzhenzhudangmubiaofadongkongxi。

rujin，eluosidezhuyaojinglifangzaileewuchongtu，yilangyinweibayichongtuheliyichongtuyuyiselieduizhishengji，libanenzhenzhudangzejinglileyiseliedemenggong。mengyoumendeliliangjianruohou，xuliyazhengfuhainengfoukangzhu？

俄罗斯和伊朗的支持

jualianqiu《guojiabao》baodao，zhouwuzaoshang，eluosikongtianjunzhahuiletongwanghuomusishidedaqiao，yifanghuanxufanzhengfuwuzhuangtuijindesudu。daqiaoweiyum5gaosugonglushang，lianjiehamayuhuomusi，huomusijuminyijingkaishicheli。huomusidelianyouchangyeshixuliyazhengfukongzhidezhuyaolianyouchangzhiyi。

conghuomusiwangxikeyijingm1gaosugongluqianwangdizhonghaipandetaertusi。sulian1971nianjiuzaitaertusigangshelilejunshijidi，muqiantaertusigangshieluosizaidizhonghaideweiyihaijunjidi，yeshizaihaiwaiweiyidehaijunjidi，weieluosizhihengbeiyuedezhongyaojudian。eluosizaixuliyaxibudelatajiyashenghaiyouhemeimimukongjunjidi，shieluosizaigaiguodezuidakongjunjidi。

xuliyafanzhengfuwuzhuanggongrualepozhishi，eluosiyijingzhongshenduixuzhengfudezhichi，kongtianjunyeduixufanduipaijudianshishilehongzha。daneluosidejunlizhuyaojizhongzaiewuzhanchang，ejundekongximeinengzudangxufanduipaidejixutuijin。

xiaoxirenshijieshoulutoushecaifangshihaitoulu，xufanduipaiwuzhuangzhanlingalepozhihou，yilangzhichideyilakewuzhuangfenpijinruxuliyazhunbeixiezhuxuzhengfuzuozhan，danlibanenzhenzhudangshangweipaichushibing。

ningxiadaxuezhongguoalaboguojiayanjiuyuanyuanzhanglishaoxianduijiemianxinwenbiaoshi，xianzaishixuliyazhengfuzi“alabozhichun”yilai，diercixianrushengcunweiji。suiraneluosi、yilanghelibanenzhenzhudangdoubeibangzhuleshoujiao，daneluosiheyilangbuhuizuoshixuliyazhengfuxianrushengsiweiji。

lishaoxianzhichu，eluosizaixuliyayouzhongyaoliyi。“2015nianhou，eluosizaixuliyajianlile5gejunshijidi，latajiyahaiyoudaliangeluosiqiaomin。ruguoxuliyazhengfudaotai，jiangduieluosizaochengquanfangmianyingxiang。”

eluosimeitigongbudexinxixianshi，chuletaertusihelatajiyazhiwai，eluosizaihuomusihebaermilashizhijianyoubushuwurenjihezhishengjidekongjunjidi，zaixudongbeibuhasaikesheng、daierzuershengyeyoujunshijidi。

lishaoxianrenwei，suiranyouewuchongtuqianzhi，daneluosijiangchongfendiaodongzaixuliyadexianyouliliangxiezhuxuzhengfuzuozhan。ejunzaixuliyabushudejutirenshuweibaomixinxi，lishaoxianzhichuyibangujiejunzaixuliyayou7000ren，ewuchongtukaishihouhaiyouduoshaoejunliuzaixuliyashiweizhishu。chulezhengguijun，eluosiyekenengcongfeizhoudiaodongguyongbingjinruxuliya。

zaizuixindepingguzhongzhichu，eluosikenengba“feizhoujuntuan”chengyuanpaiwangxuliya。guyongbingwagenajituanpanluanshijianzhihou，eluosizujianle“feizhoujuntuan”yiqudaiwagenajituan，gaizuzhiyoueluosiguofangbuzhijiezhihui。

“yilangjiugengbuhuizuoshixuliyazhengfubeituifan。”lishaoxianzhichu，ciqianzaixuliyaneizhanzhong，yilangzaidimianzuozhanshangjixuzhengfutigonglezhongyaozhichi，baokuotuidonglibanenzhenzhudangjinruxuliya。xuliyazhengfujunbenshenjiushiyilanglingdaode“dikangzhihu”chengyuan，zhiyoubaozhuxuliyazhengfucainengyouxiaobaozhu“dikangzhihu”，baochiyilangduizhongdongdiqudeyingxiangli。

tabuchong，eluosiheyilangdouyoujixuzhichixuliyazhengfudedongli，muqiancunyidedianzaiyueluosijiujingyuanyidiaodongduoshaojunshililianglaixiezhuxuliyazhengfu，lingyigeshiyilangmuqianzaixingdongshanghaibijiaoyouyu。lishaoxianguji，yilanggaocengduiyuzhiyuanxuliyadefangshihuohaicunzaifenqi。

土耳其想干什么？

zaixuliyaneizhanqianqi，tuerqidemubiaoshituifanxuliyazhengfubingweicizhichileduozhifanzhengfuwuzhuang。xuliyazhengfuzhanwenjiaogen、yualaboguojiahejiehou，tuerqiyexunqiugaishanyuxuliyadeguanxi。danxuliyabeibudekuerdewuzhuang“renminbaohubudui”yizhishituerqizongtongleijiepu·tayipu·aierduoandexinfudahuan。tuerqijiangrenminbaohubuduishiweikuerdegongrendangfenzhi，kuerdegongrendangxunqiujianlidulidekuerdeguojia。

cicifaqijingongdefanzhengfuwuzhuangzhong，xuliyaguominjundedaoletuerqizhichi。zaigongrualepozhishi，xuliyaguominjunxuanbuduirenminbaohubuduifaqidaihaowei“ziyouliming”dejunshixingdong。tuerqibanguanfangtongxunsheanaduolutongxunshezhichu，xuliyaguominjunjinrualepohou，jiangwanchengduitaier-lifatedequanfangweibaowei。taier-lifatejulialeposhiyibeiyue40gongli，shirenminbaohubuduikongzhiqu。

lishaoxianzhichu，fanzhengfuwuzhuangcongyidelibushengjinrualepohou，teyibakaojintuerqibianjingdediqujiaojilexuliyaguominjun。chucizhiwai，genjutuerqiyueluosi2020nianzaiyidelibudachengdetinghuoxieyi，yidelibuzuoweifanzhengfuwuzhuangkongzhiquyoutuerqifuzejianguan。yincicicifanzhengfuwuzhuangdedaguimoxingdong，“tuerqimeiyoufahuizuoyongshibukenengde。”

zhongguoxiandaiguojiguanxiyanjiuyuanzhongdongyanjiusuofusuozhangqintianzhichu，zaiyingxiangxuliyajushidegefangliliangzhong，“tuerqishizuifuza，yeshizuimolengliangkede。”

tabiaoshi，benlunbayichongtuyilailibanenzhenzhudang、yilangdengxuzhengfumengyoumangyuyuyiseliejiaoliang，xuliyabuduanzaodaoyiselieliandaikongxi，eluosimangyuewuchongtu，shidexuliyachuxianleanquanzhenkong，“tuerqicongzhongkanjianlejihui。”

qintianzhichu，bayichongtuzhongzhuyaofahuizuoyongdeliangfangshiyiselieheyilang，tuerqimeiyouguoduodongzuo。dantuerqishizhongdongdiqudaguo，taxiwangzaibayichongtuyinfadediqubianjuzhonghuodehuayuquan、kuodayingxiang。

“xuliyajiushituerqidejihui，tongguoxuliyafanduipaidegongshiyingzaoduituerqiyoulidejumian。renheyifangxiangjiaotingmuqiandezhandou，wuluneluosi、yilanghaishimeiguo，douxuyaoyutuerqitanpan，rangtuerqichongdangzhongjianrenyuxuliyafanzhengfuwuzhuangxieshang。tuerqiyetongguozheiyangdeshouduanzaizhongdongdiqudebianjuzhongzhuadaoleyizhangdapai，tishengzijideyingxiangli。”tabiaoshi。

qintianrenwei，duiyuxuliyamuqiandezhanju，tuerqidetaidushi“biandabiankan”。ruguoxuliyazhengfubeituifan，tuerqiyuanyishunshuituizhou；ruguoxuliyazhengfuzaieluosiheyilangxiezhuxiakangzhujingong，neimeyaoxiangjinxingtinghuotanpanxuyaoyutuerqishangliang，“tuerqizaixuliyakeyihuodeyurenheyifangjiaobandeyoushidiwei。”

叙利亚政府会垮台？

此次领导反政府武装发dongxijideshamujiefangzuzhibeilianheguodingweikongbuzuzhi，yebeimeiguodengduoguodingweikongbuzuzhi。gaizuzhiqianshenshijidizuzhifenzhi、zaixuliyaneizhanzhongchoumingzhaozhudenusilazhenxian。nusilazhenxianjingguoduocigaiming，haicengxiaozhongisis。

isisxuanbu“jianguo”zhihouyaoqiunusilazhenxianjiesan，nusilazhenxianjujuehouyuisisjueliebingkaishiyugaizuzhizuozhan。dao2016nian，nusilazhenxianjinyibuyujidizuzhijueliebingfashengneidou，tuolijidizuzhideyipaigaimingweizhengfuxuliyazhenxian。

zhengfuxuliyazhenxiansuihouyuqitafanduipaiwuzhuangchenglileshamujiefangzuzhi。shamujiefangzuzhizaixuliyaxibeibubuduankuozhangbingkaishixiangfanduipaizhengfuzhuanxing，2017niangaizuzhizaiyidelibushengjianlile“xuliyajiushuzhengfu”。xuliyaxibeibudealeposheng、yidelibusheng、hamasheng、latajiyashengdouyoushamujiefangzuzhidekongzhiqu。

lishaoxianbiaoshi，xuliyazhengfubeixueruo、yilangliyishoudajifuhemeiguoheyiseliedeliyi，liangguolejianqicheng。danshamujiefangzuzhideshi，duimeiguoheyiselielaishuoshi“yidugongdu”。meiguoduishamujiefangzuzhitoumuzhulanixuanshang1000wanmeiyuan，jiangqishiweiyuisisqiantoumuabu·bakeer·bagedadileisideweixianrenwu。

qintianrenwei，zhengshiyouyushamujiefangzuzhidekongbuzuzhixingzhi，meiguoheyiseliedetaiduyehuisuijushibianhuaerbianhua。ruguoshamujiefangzuzhishilizhuangda、naxiagengduozhanlingdi，meiguokenenghuicaiquezhixingdong。

李绍先指出，沙姆解放组织的高调亮相几乎引发了所有地区国家的警惕和一定程度的惧怕。正是由于此，此次叙利亚反政府武装发dongjingonghou，dabufenalaboguojiamingquezhichixuliyazhengfu。erzai2011nianxuliyaneizhangangbaofashi，dabufenalaboguojiadouzhichituifanxuliyazhengfu。

tarenwei，diquguojiaduishamujiefangzuzhidejingti、eluosiyuyilangdezhichi、yijixuliyazhengfujunzhulibiruwangpaibudui“laohushi”shangweifali，douyiweizhexuliyazhengfubuhuiqingyikuatai。