wenshuluozhiheng majiajin

一、全球和中美经济运行逻辑转变：从“供需互补”到“需求争夺”

guoqushiyunian，gefanggongtongjianzhenghejinglilequanqiuhezhongguojingjijushidefengyunbianhuan。meiguozhudongbeiqiyouzishenzhudaodejingjiquanqiuhuatixi，pinfanduizhongguofaqimaoyimoca。zhongguojingjizengsuhuandang，cong10%yishangdegaosuzengzhangjiangzhi5%zuoyoudezhongsuzengzhang；jingjizhongsuzengzhangzhixia，chuxian“lianggepianli”。yishigongxushihengyinfadewujiadimidaozhimingyizengsudiyushijizengsu，yushijuminshouruhecaifuzengzhisudupianman；ershishijizengsuyoudiyuqianzaizengsu，yushijiuyerengmianlinjiegouxingyali，weiguanzhutihuodegandetigaoxiangduizhihou。youbiyaocaiquyixiliezhengcehegaigejucuotuidong“mingyizengsuhuiguishijizengsu”“shijizengsuhuiguiqianzaizengsu”。

yaotongshijieshizhongmeijingmaoguanxicongmiyueqizhuanxiangmocaqi、zhongguojingjizengsuhuandangliangzhongxianxiang，congjingjijiaodushisuizhezhongguojingjichixuzhuanxingshengji，zhongmeizhijianguanxicong“gongxuhubu”jieduanfazhandaole“xuqiuzhengduo”jieduan。chanyexiangzhonggaoduanshengjishizhongguofazhandezhengdangquanli，bukenengyongyuantingliuzaizhongdiduanshengchancongeryumeiguohubu，yincijiejue“xuqiuzhengduo”dehexinzaiyuzhongsuhongguanzhililinian——congzhiduhezhengcecengmianshixian“zhonggongji”zhuanxiang“zhongxuqiu”，tongguokuodaneixushixianwoguoxindegongxujunheng。

（一）为何中美经贸关系从蜜月期转向摩擦期？

gaigekaifangyilaizhizhongmeimaoyimocazhiqian，zhongmeijingmaowanglaizhangqichuyu“gongxuhubu”deliangxingyunzhuan。zhongguoshengchanzhongdiduanchanpin，weimeiguojumintigonglianjiashangpin；meiguoshengchanzhonggaoduanchanpin，congzhongguozhuanqugaoelirun。zhongmeizhijianxianghujiaohuangongjihexuqiu，shuangfangjingjidangaojunzuoda，shangpincengmianshi“chenyihuanfeiji”，yaosucengmianshizhongguodelianjialaodonglihuanqumeiguodezibenhejishu。

dansuizhezhongguojingjifazhanhechanyeshengji，zhongmeizhijiankaizhan“xuqiuzhengduo”。zhongguogongjifanweibuduankuozhang，yumeiguogongjifashengzhongdie，yushichuxianleduicunliangdangaodezhengduo，dangranzheishizhongguofazhandequanli。shangpincengmian，zhongguoyixianzhudejingzhengyoushizhanjulemeiguoyuanxianzhonggaoduanchanpindebufenshichangfene，liruxinnengyuanqichehedianzichanpindeng；yaosucengmian，zhongguodezibenhejishuyezhubucanyuquanqiuyaosufenpei，duimeiguoyuanxiandechaoeshouyixingchengchongji。zaiciguochengzhong，meiguochuxianzhizaoyekongxinhuahechanyegongrenshiye，tongshibansuiquanqiupinfufenhualada，mincuizhuyiheniquanqiuhuasichaoyongdong。

meiguoduihuajiazhengguanshui，shizhishangjiushishitutongguomaoyibileipaijizhongguogongji，jiangqiguoneixuqiuhaijimeiguogongji；tongshiyimeiguoxuqiuweichouma，qiangpozhongguozengjiaduimeijinkou，rangmeiguogongjiqiangzhangengduodezhongguoxuqiu。zhengduoxuqiushizhijiemubiao，zhizaoyehuiliuhejiuyegangweihuiguishimeiguozhengduoxuqiudeqiwangjieguo。

（二）为何中国经济增速换挡以及当前微观主体获得感有待增强？

改革开放之后，中国经济进入到“供需互相促进”的良性循环。居民和企业等市场主体keyigengziyoudijinrugengdadeshichang，zaidaguimochengzhenhua、gongyehuajinchengzhongcanyushengchan、huodeshouru、jierxingchengduiqitashangpinhefuwudexuqiu，youjinyibucujinduifangdeshengchan、shouruhexuqiu，yushijingjidangaoyuezuoyueda，gefangdoucongzhongxianzhuhuoyi。difangzhengfuyetongguo“gaishanyingshanghuanjingzhaoshangyinzi—cujindangdijingjifazhan—caizhengshouruzengjia—jiadajijiantouzi—jinyibuzhaoshangyinzi”dezhengxiangxunhuancanyujingjijianshe。

dansuizhejingjichixufazhan，zhongguojingji“gongxushiheng”demaodunzhujianxianlu。yifangmian，gongjinenglikuaisukuozhang，zhongguochengwei“shijiegongchang”；lingyifangmian，renkoulaolinghuashaozihua、juminshouruhelaodongbaochouzhanbipiandi、shourucaifufenhua、yiliaojiaoyuyanglaogonggongfuwurengbuchongfendengyinsujixianzhilejuminxiaofeixuqiuzengzhang，yezuailexiaofeixuqiushengji。youxiaoxuqiubuzudaozhichannengliyonglvxiajiang、shiyezengjia，xuqiushengjitingzhizuaichanyehelaodonglizhuanxing，jingjideshijizengsuheqianzaizengsujunsuizhixiajiang。

宏观总需求不足背景下，微观市场主体xianru“neijuanshijingzheng”。cunliangboyidaozhileleisi“qiutukunjing”dedishuipingjunheng，gongzuoshijiangengzhang、zijintourugengduo，quemianlinzengchanbuzengshou、zengshoubuzenglidejieguo，shengchanyaosudehuibaolvxiajiang，xueruoleweiguanzhutidehuodegan。shijihemingyigdpzengsufenbiefanyinglechanliangdezengzhangheweiguanzhutishourudezengzhang，jingjimingyizengsudiyushijizengsu，shihongguanshujuyuweiguanganshoubeilidezhijieyuanyin。

二、重塑宏观经济治理理念：从“重供给”到“重需求”，以名义GDP增速和就业为锚

jiyuquanqiuhezhongmeijingjiyunxingluojidezhuanbian，zhiyoukuodazongxuqiu、shixianxindegongxupingheng，cainengjiejuezhongmeimaoyimocayijiguoneijingjizengsuxiaxing、neijuanshijingzhengdewenti，zheixuyaohongguanjingjizhililiniancongzhonggongjizhuanxiangzhongxuqiu。

kuodaneixu，jishimanzurenminduimeihaoshenghuodexiangwang，yeshiyingduizhongmeimaoyimocaheguoneijingjizengsuhuandangdezhibenzhice。guoneixuqiukuoda，yifangmian，nenggoubufenduichongmeiguoxuqiufenedesunshi，yejiangzengjiazhongmeiguanshuitanpandechouma；lingyifangmian，shiweiguanzhutitiaochu“neijuanshijingzheng”dexianjing，congdishuipingjunhengtishengzhigaoshuipingjunheng，zengqianggefangdehuodegan。

首先，要进一步深化改革，破除“重供给、轻需求”的制度障碍。liru，jiangshengchandizhengshuiyuanzezhuanweixiaofeidizhengshui，tuidongdifangzhengfugengjiazhongshixiaofeihuanjinggaishanerfeizhaoshangyinzi；congjianshecaizhenghechifancaizhengzhuanweiminshengcaizheng，jiejuejuminxiaofeidehouguzhiyou；tuidongnongmingongshiminhua、tuidongzhuanyizhifusuirenzou，youliyushifangnongmingongdexiaofeixuqiuheluohuhoudegoufangxuqiu；buzaiyigaoangzhuzhaiyongdimibudijiagongyeyongdideng。

其次，政策目标体系应做出系统调整，以适应新的发展阶段。qiyi，gaoduzhongshiwujiazhibiao，jingjizengsumubiaogengjiazhongshimingyigdpzengsu。qier，caizhengzhengceyinggengduodingzhuzhichuzengsumubiao，erfeichizilvmubiao，chizilvyaodadantupo3%。qisan，huobizhengceyinggengduodingzhushijililv，jimingyililvjianquwujiazhishu，ruguowujiazhishuchixuxiaxingyinfashijililvshangshengzeyoubiyaojiangxi。

最后，要努力实现有就业的增长、有收入的增长、有获得感的增长。hongguandiaokongdemubiaoshijiangshijijingjizengsuweichizaiqianzaizengsufujin，ershiyelvshiguanchachanchuquekoudezhongyaozhibiao。dangshiyelvxianzhugaoyuheyishuiping，jiuyiweizheziyuancunzaixianzhi，yaokuodazongxuqiuyishixiangenggaozengzhang。2024nian10yue，16-24suiqingnianshiyelvrengchuyu17.1%degaowei，yishiduilaodongliziyuandejudalangfei；ershibuliyurenlizibendejilei，jiangdiweilaijingjiqianzaizengsu；sanshiyingxiangjuminjiuyeheshouruyuqi，yizhixiaofeinenglihexinxin，jiajuyouxiaoxuqiubuzu。yinciyoubiyaogengjiaqiangdiaozengzhangdejiuyedaoxiang，bajiuyezuoweizhengceshifouxuyaojixuhejiadalidudezhongyaobiaozhun。

三、回顾2024年：经济运行的明线与暗线

2024nianzhongguojingjifenbieshoudaosandazhichenghesandatuolei。zhichengfangmian，yishichukouchaoyuqihuinuanjirenxing，ershishebeigengxindaidongzhizaoyetouzi，sanshizhongyangzhengfujiaganggandaidongzhongyangjijiantouzi；tuoleifangmian，yishijuminxiaofeibuzhen，ershidifangjijiantouzixiahua，sanshifangdichanshichangchixudimi。

suizhe9yuexiaxunyilaiyixiliezengliangzhengcedeshishi，weiguanzhutiyuqihexinxinmingxiantisheng，gushi、fangdichanshichanghuoyuedushangsheng，jingjijiakuaihuifu。2024nianzhongguojingjizongtichengvxingzoushi，qiansanjidugdptongbifenbiewei5.3%、4.7%he4.6%，sijiduhuohuishengzhi5%zuoyou，yujiquannianzengsuwei4.9%。

2024nianzhongguojingjihaicunzailiangtiaojiaoshaozhuyidaodeanxian：

其一，社零消费低迷，除了居民消费不振以外，还有社会集团消费下滑的拖累。shehuijituanxiaofeizhanshelingxiaofeideyibanzuoyou。juminxiaofeidimi，zhiyueqiyeyingshouhelirunzengzhang，yushiqiyejiangbenzengxiao，yasuobangong、chalvdengxiangguanfeiyong。2024nian1-10yuequanguowenhuabangongyongpinleilingshoueleijitongbiwei-0.6%；beijingheshanghaidecanyinshouruleijitongbifenbiewei-5.2%he-5.6%，bufenyuanyuqiyeshangwuyanqingjianshao。

其二，地方财政紧平衡不仅制约地方基建投资，也影响了政府消费支出和公共服务业发展。yifangmian，jiceng“sanbao”yalizengda，yingxianggdpzhichufahesuanzhongdezhengfuxiaofeizhichu。lingyifangmian，difangzhengfuyasuojicenggongzuorenyuangongzifuli，yingxianggdpshengchanfahesuanzhongdexiangguanxingyezengjiazhi。2024nianqiansanjidugdpleijitongbi4.8%，erbaohangonggongfuwuyedeqitaxingyedezengjiazhileijitongbiwei3.3%，duijingjidetuoleijinciyufangdichanye。

四、展望2025年：化债之后地方基建投资回升，出口直面“特朗普冲击”

2025nianjingjizengsumubiaokeshezhiwei“shuang5”，jimingyizengsuheshijizengsujundadao5%。jiezhi2024niansanjidu，mingyigdpzengsuyijinglianxu6gejidudiyushijigdpzengsu。mingyizengsupiandi，yingxiangzhengfushouru、qiyelirunhejuminshouru，kenengkuodahongguanshujuyuweiguanganshoudechaju，yingxiangshujugongxinli。

2025nianzhongguojingjiyunxingdezhudaoyinsu，cong2023-2024niandefangdichanhedifangzhaiwuwentizhuanhuaweifangdichanhe“telangpuchongji”，dangrandifangzhaiwuwentirengxuyinqiguanzhu，jijinru“2+1”jieduan。yilanzizengliangzhengcehou，fangdichanshichangzhengzaizhudihuiwen，baogongji、cuxuqiuhewenfangjiarengshihexinrenwu，rengyingxiangzhejingjiyunxing。tongshi，telangpujihuaduihuajiazhengguanshui，jiangdaozhizhongguoduanqichuxian“qiangchukou”xianxiang，danquannianchukourengjiangchengya。huazhaihuanjieledifangzhengfudeliudongxingfengxian，danhuazhairengweijieshu，bufenquyurengmianlinfuxiyalihe“sanbao”yali。yaochongfenliyongshijianchuangkougoujianzhaiwuguanlizhangxiaojizhiheshenhuacaishuitizhigaige，hexinshijianlizhaiwuhezibenyusuan、tigaozhongyangshiquanhezhichubizhong。

congxuqiukan，2025niandexiaofeihejijiantouzijianghuisheng、fangdichantouzijiangfushouzhai，danchukouhezhizaoyetouzihuiluo。xiaofeixuqiukenengzaifangdichanhezibenshichangzhubuwendingdejichushangerbufenshifang；fangdichanshichangzhubuzhidiehuiwen，duifangdichantouziyeshizhengxianggongxian，danfangqiliudongxingfengxianyijiyinfadeshangxiayousanjiaozhaiwentiyiranyaoyinqiguanzhu。chukouzaitelangpujiazhengguanshuidezuoyongxiadagailvhuiluo。2024nianzhizaoyetouzijishujiaogao，dangranzaishebeigengxinhegaoduanhua、zhinenghua、lvsehuadezhichixia，2025niantouzizengsujianglveyousuohuiluoerfeidafuxiahua。

tongzhangfangmian，yujicpitongbiwenhehuisheng，you2024niande0.3%huishengzhi0.9%；ppitongbirengweifuzengzhang，danjiangfushouzhai，you2024niande-2.2%huishengzhi-1.2%。

五、宏观政策建议：更大力度、更快节奏、协调配合

2025nian“telangpuchongji”jiangjiajuwoguohongguanzhengcedewaibuchezhou：yifangmian，meiguoduihuajiazhengguanshuichongjizhongguochukou，bingjiajumeiguo“zaitongzhang”fengxian、yanhuanmeilianchujiangxibufa，renminbihuilvchengya，kenengyingxiangwoguohuobizhengcecaiqugengdalidudejiangxijucuo。lingyifangmian，telangpuduineidaguimojianshui，kenengzaiduyinfaguojishuishouzhudijingzheng，zaizibenwailiuheguojiyulunzhanfengxianxia，woguojianshuideyalikenengjinyibujiada，daozhihongguanshuifuxiaxing、tuishengcaizhengshouzhiquekouhezhengfuzhaiwu。

danwoguocaizhenghuobizhengcerengying“yiwoweizhu”，tongguogengdalidudezhengcecuoshiwendingjingjihou，huilv、zhaiwudengwentidoukeyiyingrenerjie。tongshizhengceyingkaoqianfali，zouzaiyuqiqianmian。

caizhengzhengcefangmian，2025niankekaolvyixiafangan：chizilv4.0%（guimo5.5wanyi）、zhuanxiangzhai4.5wanyi、chaozhangqitebieguozhai1wanyi（zhichi“liangzhong”“liangxin”）、tebieguozhai3wanyi（buchongyinxingzibenjin1wanyi，fangdichanwendingjijin2wanyi），heji14wanyi，xiangdangyugdpde10.2%。zheiqizhongzhiguanzhongyaodeshichizilv，wulunshi3.0%，haishi3.5%he4.0%，chizijueduiguimoxiangchabuda，danxinhaoyiyihewendingyuqideyiyiquexiangchawanqian。

yu2024nianbijiao，2024niandechiziguimo4.06wanyi、zhuanxiangzhai3.9wanyi、chaozhangqitebieguozhai1wanyi、zengfaguozhai1wanyi（2023nianfaxingdanzhuyaoshiyongzai2024nian），heji9.96wanyi，xiangdangyugdpde7.6%，jikekaolv2025nianguangyichizilvjiao2024niangao2.6gebaifendian，guimogao4wanyi。

huobizhengcefangmian，yishikaolvfenbiejiangzhunjiangxi0.5gebaifendian，yipeihecaizhengfazhai、weihuliudongxingwending、jiangdishitijingjirongzichengben；ershidiaozhengyouhuabaozhangxingzhufangzaidaikuan，zhengquan、jijin、baoxiangongsihuhuanbianli，gupiaohuigouzengchizaidaikuandengjiegouxinghuobizhengcegongju，jiangqiluodaoshichu、qudeshixiao。

fangdichanzhengcefangmian，yishijiakuaijiechufeibiyaodexianzhixingcuoshi，rangshangpinfanghuiguishichanghuapeizhi，zhuyaoshibeijingheshanghai；ershijiakuaituijinbaojiaofang、shouchucunliangfang、shougoufangqicunliangtudidenggongzuo，baozhangminsheng、huanjiefangqiliudongxingyali；sanshiyindaoguligaopinzhizhuzhaichanpinkaifa，yiyouzhigongjimanzujuminhelixuqiu。

 

（作者罗志恒，系粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长；马家进，系粤开证券首席宏观分析师。文本首发于作者微信公号“粤开志恒宏观”，文章仅代表作者观点。）