文｜融中财经

pochanzhongzhengzhengzaichengweiyigetouzixinsaidao。

zhaozhaocengshiyijiaxinnengyuangongsichuangshiren，houyinzhanlvecuowu，gongsidaobi。zuijinxiangzhongxinchuangye，raneryinweizhaiwuhezhengxinwenti，yinxingdaikuan、rongzizulindengdouwufanadaozijin。liyangheqizizhiqiangongtongjingyingyijiaxiaoxingmaoyigongsi，enaiyoujia。qianbujiugongsidaobi，liangrenweilezhaiwuwentizhengchaobuxiu，zuizhongfendaoyangbiao。

2024nian，bushaoxirimingxingdujiaoshouqiyedouchuxianlecaiyuan、jiangxin、pochan、daobidengwenti。dianxingrurouyukeji，shenzhenshizhongjirenminfayuanyu11yue18riganggangzhengshicaidingrouyukejixuangaopochan，zichanbuzuyiqingchangquanbuzhaiwu，baokuoliangjiaquanzizigongsiyeweinengxingmianyunan。

jubuwanquantongji，shangbannian，quanguofanweineigongkaidepochananjianshuliangdadao48000yujia，qizhongzhucezibenzai500wanzhi5000wanyuanzhijiandeqiyeshuliangzhanbidadao35.4%，shejigedaxingyelingyu。zixilaikan，“zibudizhai”shiduoshuxianrupochanqingsuanqiyedezhongyaoyuanyin，yishimeiyouwendingdexianjinliu，kangfengxiannengliruo，ershimeiyouzizhuyanfanengli，quefahexinjingzhengli。

zhidezhuyideshi，pochanzhongzu，chenglejinnianchuangtouquanzuirecizhiyi，shenzhiyouwangchengweiyijishichangpe/vclingyiqianzaituichufangshi。xianggaosheng、heishi、xiangshuzibendengguojijigouzaojiujiasubujuzhongguo，tongguodijiashougoubinlinpochangongsidezhaiquan，zhongzuhougaojiamaichu。erzaiguonei，chulechanyetouziren，amc、jinrongjigoudengcaiwutouzirenjishangshigongsi，difangguoziyangqiyefenfenzhanxianleduipochanzhongzhenganjiantouzidejidaxingqu。

zheiliangnian，pochandedujiaoshou、zhongzudeshangshigongsi，yipijiezheyipi。juanlianmaoyi《quanqiupochanbaogao》，yujijinnianpochanshuliangjiangshangsheng11%，2025nianzaishangsheng2%bingdadaofengzhi，zhizhi2026niancaihuiwendingxialai。jianyanzhi，quanqiushangyehuanjingjiangmianlingengweiyanjundeqianjing。canyupochanzhongzutouzi，huoxuzhengchengweizhongguozibenshichangyouyizuijuxiyinlidexifentouzilingyu。

“子弹”不足，不愿意call款的基金越来越多

“tschule，touqianjindiaozuowanle，guowantouweihuile，spaqianwanle，jiuchamuzile。”zheishimoutouzirenqianbujiufabudeyitiaopengyouquan，henjudiaokanyiwei，danyeshijinnianhenduojigoudezhenshixiezhao。

duiyuneixiezhangqiyilaiwaiburongzishengcundeqiyeeryan，zijinquefakenengdaozhiyanfa、kuozhangdengjihuabeipogezhi，jineryingxiangshengsicunwang。suoyiqiyebudebuxunzhaogengduogenglinghuoderongzifangshi，yiqiuzaizheichanghandongzhongcunhuoxialai。danduihenduotouzijigoueryan，qishiyijingzigubuxia。congshujushangkan，shangbannianzhongguosimuguquanshichangmuzizongejiaoquniantongqixiajiangyue30%，shichanghuoyueduzhoujiang，qiyerongzibiandeyujiafuzahekunnan。

“shanggeyueyougehaoxiangmubeilaobanjiaotingle。”beijingmoujigouirchentingtinggaosujizhe，“xianzaishichanghuanjingbuhao，lpbuyuanyicallkuanhenduojijinzidanbuzu，jishixiangmuliaowanqianwantsdouhennantuidongxiayibu。”

anzhaoguanli，touzijigouhuiyulpshangdingdakuanzhouqihebilifenpicallkuan，yibanfen2-3pi。zheiyangdechukuanfangshizaiguquantouzishichanghenchanggui，danshidangshichangxiaxing，juedaduoshulpshoujinkoudai，anzhaohetongyuedingzouchengxujiuyoulebuquedingxing。jintian，yijishichanggpmuzideduixianglunkuoyijingriyiqingxi，zhengfuyindaojijinjichanyezibenchengweizhuyaoqudao。keshiduiyuzhuzhongxiaolvdeshichanghuagplaishuo，difangguozideshenpiliuchengrengshibijiaofansuo，jiashangjinnianyouyudaozuiyanshenji，henduojijinnanyiluodi。tebieshijiaodadeguozilptongchangyaodengdaoqitachuzirenjiaowanzaichuzi，napayijiaxiaolpbuzunshouqiyuejingshen，douhuidaozhijijinmuzishouzu。

zuijintingpengyoutucao，moumingxinggongsizhengzaidaliangcaiyuan，yuanyinshishangyilunnademoudizhengfudeqian，zijinchichimeidaozhang。“guozideliuchengzhendetaizhang，touzifangzijinyizhidabuguolai。rujingongsizhangshangzijinyejiuzugouzhichengbannian，budebukaiyuanjieliu。”jujizhelejie，zheijiagongsizhiqianwancheng5lunrongzi，shenhoubufatengxuntouzi、danmaxi、fandaxiyangtouzidengyixianjigoushenying。

zixikanzheiliangnian，qiyerongzihouzhaojigouyaoqianjigoufenqifukuan、dadaojiaogetiaojianhoubutoudebibijieshi，bufayoutouyouliandevc/pe。shizeshijigoudeqianyemeidaozhang！mouzhimingzaoqichuangtoujigouhehuorenjiucengmingquegaosuguojizhe，“womenbunazhengfujijindeqian，ershihuixuanzeshichanghua、buxianzhitouzifangxiangdeqian。”

zaigpyuguozilpdehezuozhong，shuangfangdoumingbaigutoudezhongyaoxing，danyixiexiangmukenengcaiquqingzichanyunying。jishiqianqiyugongyingshanghezuoshengchanhexinbujian，dengdaotiaojianchengshuzaixiangshangxiayouyanshenfazhan，yenanyidadaoguozilpdegaogutouyaoqiu。ciwai，suizhelpdegphuariyimingxian，yixiexinwentisuizhichansheng。birubushaoguozilptouxiangmushiyaoqiuhuiyoufayanquan，shenzhiyixieyindaojijinchuzi10%-20%queyaoqiutouweihuizhongyipiaofoujuequan。ruguoxieyibunengmingquehuafenbicidejiexian，henrongyihouqixianruxianghuchepideguocheng。

touzirenchenxuefengjinqijiukanleyixiexiangmu，douyoushijiluodixuqiu，danfaxianyuguozilpqiwangdefantouhaishicunzaichaju。“birutouxinpianbandaoti、zhinengzhizao，kendingyaozhaozhouweishuiyuanchongzu、jiaotongbianli、zhouweipeitaochanyejiaoweifengfudediqu，fouzetoudexiangmuyebuyuanyiqianzhi。ranerduiyuguozilperyan，jishixiangmubenshenyejikeguan，dantamengengkanzhonggudingzichantouruhezhijiedehuibaofangshi，jigutouhefantou。”

jianeryanzhi，qiyenabudaoqian，vc/pezhaoyangnanyouqian，suoyidajiacaigongtonghuyu：naixinziben、dadanziben，congyuantoushangjiejuekejichuangxindedongliwenti。

1/3独角兽已死，只是秘不发丧

xiangshuzibenlianhechuangshirenhuohuade·makesishuoguo，“dangnijingliguoyiduanhenrongyichoujidaozijindefanhuashiqi，zhuanerjinruyiduanjishichuyuhaomudeyehennanchoudaozijinshi，xianranjiuhuiyougengduogongsidaobi。”

yuangongweitaohui6000wanqianxin，sichuxunrenzhaolaoban，shoujitingji，jialimeiren，zhongzhongjixiangbiaomingrenpaolule。guobuqiran，sigeyuehou，yuangongjiuzaimeiguowangqiugongkaisaixianchangfaxianlemeinvxiangbandeta——rouyukejiliuzihong，yiweizaiguoneishenfu29yizhaiwu、74cibeixiadaxianzhigaoxiaofeilingde“laolai”。

qianbujiu，cengjingguzhi400duoyiyuande“dujiaoshou”rouyupochanpaimai，lingwushuchuangtourenxixubuyi，ertasuokandemeiwangpiaojiazuigao2.3wanmeiyuan、zheherenminbi16wanyizhang。shulirouyudechengzhanglicheng，zi2012nianzaishenzhenchuangyeqibu，chengliciyuebianhuodeshenchuangtouhesonghezibengongtongfaqidealunrongzi，jiaoyijineshuqianwanrenminbi。9nianneiwancheng13cirongzi，2020nianzuihouyicirongziguzhigaoda60yimeiyuan。ranergaoguangshikeguoyuduanzan，2020nianmo、2021nianchu，rouyuxianhoudasuanfumeifuashangshi，junyishibaigaozhong，bujiuhoubeipuxianruzijinlianduanlie、yuangongtaoxin、pochanzhongzudengkunjing。duanduanliangsannian，xiri“shenshou”biandieluoshentan。

zaiyijishichang，rouyukejizheigebiaodeqishiyizhitingyouxiyinli。danjuxiangguanrenshitoulu，jinnianyilai，jingdifangzhengfuqiantourouyujiechuguojijiayixiangtouzizhe，qiesuoxudediyibizhongqizijinbingbusuantaiduo，shijiyiyuanjiugoule。dancongzuizhongjieguolaikan，rouyuyijiuhaishizouxianglepochan。

zaijingjizengsufanghuan、shichangxuqiupiruan、zibenshichangbuduanshousuodenianfenzhong，qiyeyouqishizhongxiaoqiyemianlinzhongzhongshengcunkunjing，shaoyoubushenjiuhuimianlinbeibianyuanhuanaizhipochandefengxian。erneixiemingxingqiye，guzhiguogao，huijinrulingyigekunjing：qiankuaishaowanle，xinyilunrongzichichijinbulai。weilehuoxiaqu，bixujiangguzhi，danlaogudongmenyouhennantongyi。youci，chuangshituanduikazailexingudonghelaogudongdeguzhikunjingzhizhong。

beijingmoubluntobqiyechuangshirenqiaoshenggaosujizhe，“yudaqiyexiangbi，zhongxiaoqiyezaizhuiqiujishuchuangxindetongshi，bixuzhuzhongqiyedewenjianjingyinghefengxiankongzhi。yinweizichandiyapinbuzu、jingyingzhuangkuangbuwending，huoderongzibuguanshiqudaohaishifangshidouhuigengjiakunnan。suiranzheiliangnianzhengfuyezainulishukun，danjuedabufenminyingqiyechuyujiaodakunnanzhizhong。yifangmianyulutaishao，lingyifangmianyeshidabufenqianliuxiangleguoziqiye。”

guoqude2023nian，zhongguoxinzeng15jiadujiaoshou，jinjinshi2018niandeshifenzhiyi。gaoguzhiwurenjiepan、“rongbudaoxiayilun”dedujiaoshouyuelaiyueduo，youqixinnengyuanchexiangguanlingyu，guoneibaiteng、tusen、weima、gaohe、nazhadengdaduoyinzijinwentijielianchuanchujingyingkunnandengwenti。

破产重组，正成为一个“类定增”的投资新赛道

jinnianyilai，pochanzhongzhengderedumingxianzaishangsheng。

chuledujiaoshouhechuangxinchuangyeqiye，jiezhi11yue24ri，yiyou44jiashangshigongsibeishenqingzhongzhengjiyuzhongzheng，shuliangchaoguo2023nianquannianguimo。shangshigongsitongchangdoujuyouyidingjingjiguimoheshehuiyingxiang，yudaozhongdazhaiwuweijishi，yibanbushijinrupochanqingsuanchengxu，ershizaiduofanghuchixiaqidongpochanzhongzheng，qiechengxujiaoweifuza，yibanxuyaoshengzhengfu、zuigaoyuanhezhengjianhuidoudiantoucaizhengshiqidong。danshishangshigongsipochanzhongzhengshejizhaiquanren、gudong、zhigong、difangzhengfudengduofangliyizhuti，ruhebaohuzhaiquanrenliyidetongshijianguzhongxiaotouzizheheyuangudongdequanyishijudatiaozhan。ciwai，xunzhaozhongzhengtouziren，yeshipochanzhongzhenggongsimianlindezuidananti。

chenxuefengzuijinjiushouyaocanjialeduogepochanzhongzubimenhui，tingxialaizuidadeganshoujiushi：touzirenzhennan！bujinjinshiyijishichang，chulesidaamc，shenzhiyiqianzuocaiwuguwende，jinronghandong，dajiadouhennan。”

congmuqianshichangkan，guozi、minqi、simu、amcdengjibenshizuizhuyaodezhongzhengtouziren。tebieshidifangguozicanyupochanzhongzhengdezhanbizaikuaisushenggao。biru，quanzhoufazhanjituan、hubeishengliangshiyouxiangongsideng14jiatouzirencanyufujianaonongshengwuzhongzhengtouzi，qizhongquanzhoufazhanjituanshiquanzhoushishuguoziqiye，hubeishengliangshiyouxiangongsishijikongzhirenweihubeishengguoziwei，qiyu11jiajigouzehuichengweigongsicaiwutouziren。ciwai，beijingguoyouzibenyunyingguanliyouxiangongsicanyulewentoukonggudepochanzhongzheng，shanxicaikong、guangfayuecaiyuemintoudengcanyulehanmakejidepochanzhongzhengdeng。

duiyudifangguozieryan，touzipochanzhongzhengxiangmujinengrangqiyezhongxinfazhan，yekeyiweihuwending、jidifangbaoliushuishouhegongzuogangwei。gengzhongyaodeshi，congcaiwujiaodukan，tongguozhongzhengnaxiashangshigongsikongzhiquan，touzirenrugujiadezhekoukongjianwangwanggengda，yeshiyizhongchengbengengdi、shouyigenggaode“leidingzeng”。ciwai，haiyouyizhongdongji——bao“qiao”。congguanlirenjiaoduchufa，yehuigengxihuanguozibeijingdetouziren。yifangmiandifangguoziyouqian，lingyifangmian，yuguozihezuo，zaizhaotoubiaodengyewuzhongyenenghuodexinyongbeishu。ciwai，fayuanhedifangzhengfuyedouyuanyiguozijieru，huijiangdizhongzhengnandu，tigaozhongzhengxiaolv。

buguo，pochanzhongzhengshigefuzadeguocheng，zhongzhengjihuashejiqiyefuzaliyixiangguanfang。guozi，tebieshidifangguozi，wangwangdaibiaozhedifangzhengfuduixiangmudezhichi，danchanyenengliheyunzuonenglibuyidingzugoulinghuo。yinci，zaijiaoduoxiangmuzhong，huichuxianguoziheminjianzibengongtongdataichangxideqingkuang。

qishibinggouzhongzubujinshituijinqiyechanyekuozhangheziyuanzhenghedeyoulishouduan，yeshizhulikunjingqiyezhuanxingtuokun、tizhizengxiaodezhongyaolujing。dianxingru2024nian2yue，jinguiyinyeshougoubaoshankuangye100%guquanwanchengguohu，konggugudongzhengshiyizhuweihunanshengguoziwei。2019nianjinguiyinyeshangbaiyiyuanzhaiwujuleiyinbao，quanniankuisun43.49yiyuan，zibudizhai，susongchanshen，2020nian11yue，chenzhoushiguoziweiqixiadechenzhoushifazhanchantouqiantouchengweizhongzhengtouziren。jiezhucicibinggou，shangshigongsijingyingkunjingdeyiniuzhuan，“lianzhu”qiyechenggongfunengchanyeliangongsi，hunanshengneichanyezhenghezhanlvemaichujianshiyibu，zuizhongshixianduofanggongying。

“qishitanbaishuo，zaiteshuzichanhebuliangzichanchulizheiyilingyutouzidebufenzhangmianshouyihaishitingkeguande。”chenxuefengxiaozhegaosujizhe。“chuciwai，canyupochanzhongzheng，youkenengchengweiyijishichanglingyizhongqianzaituichufangshi。dangbeitouqiyezoubutongipo，keyichangshiyichanyetouzirenshenfencanyudaotongchanyelianshangshigongsidepochanzhongzheng，ruci，touzijigoubiankebaxiangyingguquanhuanweishangshigongsiguquan，jinerhuodeliudongxing。”

youmeititongjiguo，2021nianji2022nianwanchengzhongzhengde20duojiashangshigongsianlizhong，zhongzhengtouzirenpingjunshouyilvchaoguo100%。danwulunruhe，pochanzhongzhengyijingshikunjingqiyezuihouyicijiumingjihui，zuilixiangdejieguohaishixiwangzhururouyukejizheileidujiaoshouyijineixieshangyoujihuihenenglidest，rengkeyizaishijiandeyingyueshuxiajingguofuzadegefangboyihoukeyituotaihuangu，niepanzhongsheng。