记者 辛圆

haiguanzongshuzhouergongbushujucheng，yimeiyuanji，11yuechukoujinetongbizengzhang6.7%，zengsujiaoshangyuedafuhuiluo6.0gebaifendian；jinkoutongbixiajiang3.9%，jiangfubishangyuekuoda1.6gebaifendian，wei9geyuelaizuidi。dangyueshixianmaoyishuncha974.4yimeiyuan。

11yuechukou、jinkoubiaoxianjunbujiyuqi。jiemianxinwencaijide7jiajigouyucezhongzhixianshi，11yue，chukoutongbizengzhang7.5%，jinkoutongbizengzhang1.5%。

suiranshoushangniantongqigaojishudeyingxiang，chukouzengsuyousuofanghuan，danyiranbaochizaijiaogaozengzhangshuiping。fenxishirenwei，zheihedangqianwaixurengchuyujiaoqiangzhuangtaiyijiqiye“qiangchukou”youguan。

“11yuechukoutongbizengsuhuiluozhuyaoshishoushangniantongqijishutaigao，yijishangyuetuidongchukouzengsupiangaodeduanqiyingxiangyinsuxiaotuidengsuozhi。buguo，dangyuechukouzengsurengchuyupiangaoshuiping。”dongfangjinchengguojixinyongpingguyouxiangongsishouxihongguanfenxishiwangqingduijiemianxinwenshuo。

9yuefen，shoujiduantianqi、quanqiuhangyunbuchang、meiguodonghaianmatougongrenbagongdengyinsuraodong，dangyuewoguochukoutongbizengsujinyou2.4%，zheixieraodongyinsuzai10yueyoubutongchengdudexiaotui。

zhongguoguangdayinxingjinrongshichangbuhongguanyanjiuyuanzhoumaohuabiaoshi，11yuechukouqiangyujijiexing，zhuyaoyuanyinbaokuohaiwaixuqiurenxing、dianzichanpinxuqiufusu，diejiabufenwaimaolingshoushangweiguibiguanshuiyingxiang，tiqianzengjiajinkou“dunhuo”。

huachuangzhengquanshouxihongguanfenxishizhangyuciqianzaiyanbaozhongbiaoshi，muqianyousanfangmiandezhengjuxianshiqueshicunzai“qiangchukou”dexingwei：yishi11yueguanfangzhizaoyecaigoujinglirenzhishu（pmi）zhongdexinchukoudingdandafushangsheng0.8gebaifendianzhi48.1%；ershizhongguogangkoujizhuangxiangtuntulianghuanbicong10yuedexiajiang2.8%zhuanweishangzhang3.7%；sanshi11yueshanghaichukoujizhuangxiangyunjiazonghezhishujunzhihuanbishangzhang7.3%，10yueweixiajiang13.6%。

haiguanshujuxianshi，11yue，woguoqiansandachukoushichangfenbieshidongnanyalianmeng、meiguoheoumeng，qizhong，duidongmengchukoutongbizengzhang14.9%，bishangyuefanghuan0.9gebaifendian；duimeiguochukouzengzhang8.0%，bishangyuefanghuan0.1gebaifendian；duioumengchukouzengzhang7.2%，bishangyuefanghuan5.5gebaifendian。suiranduisandashichangchukouzengsujunyousuofanghuan，danduimeichukoufanghuanchengduzuiqing，yidingchengdushanghe“qiangchukou”youguan。

zhuyaochukoushangpinzhong，fuzhuangjiyizhefujianchukoujinetongbizengzhang3.8%，fangzhishaxian、zhiwujiqizhipintongbizengzhang9.3%，jichengdianlutongbizengzhang11.0%，zidongshujuchulishebeijiqilingbujiantongbizengzhang16.2%，qiche（handipan）tongbixiajiang7.7%，shoujixiajiang0.6%。jinnianqian11geyue，qichechukoutongbizengzhang15.8%。

wangqingzhichu，10yueqichechukoushujuchuxianxiahua，weijin51geyueyilaishouciyuedutongbifuzengzhang，zheikenengyiweizheoumengzhengshoufanbutieshuiyingxiangkaishixianxian。kaolvdaooumengshiwoguozhongyaodediandongqichechukoushichang，houxuyingxianghaixuguanzhu。

congqushilaikan，zhoumaohuabiaoshi，zonghekaolvquanqiuxuqiurenxing、guanshuixiaoyingyijiwoguowaimaojingzhenglitisheng，yujiweilaijigeyuewaimaoyouwangpingwenzengzhang，jixulvegaoyujijiexing。

王青表示，考虑到去年同期出口基数抬高，加之近期外需出现放缓态势，12月出口增速预计在6.0%左右。不过，对美“抢出口”xiaoyingyoukenengtuigaoniandichukouzengsu。zhengtilaikan，sijiduwoguochukoujiangbaochijiaogaozengzhangshuiping。

duiyu11yuejinkouxiahuachaoyuqi，fenxishirenwei，zhuyaohaishiguoneixuqiufusupianruo，qiyekuozhangzengjiajinkoukucunjuecepianjinshen，jiashangguojinengyuandengshangpinjiagedimiyadizhengtijinkouchengben。

“9月底以来一揽子增量政策陆续出台，虽对市场信心有较强提振，但鉴于政策落地见效还需要一段时间，其对进口需求的实际拉动效果仍然有限。这也反映在，11月官方制造业PMI进口指数虽较上月回升0.3个百分点，但仍处于47.3%的收缩区间。”王青说。

shangyuezhuyaoshangpinzhong，tiekuangshijinkoushuliangtongbixiajiang0.9%，jinkoujinetongbixiajiang19.6%；yuanyoujinkoushuliangtongbizengzhang14.3%，danshouyoujiazoudiyingxiang，jinkoujinetongbixiajiang4.7%；tianranqijinkoushuliangtongbixiajiang1.4%，jinkoujinexiajiang8.3%。

fenxishibiaoshi，bansuiyilanzizengliangzhengcejinyibuxianxiao，weilaiyiduanshijianjinkouxuqiuhuoyougaishan。

“9yueguoneizengliangzhengcechutaimingxiantizhenshichangyuqi，diejiaguoneicunliangzhengcexiaoguoshifang，guoneixiaofei、fangdichanhetouzifusudongnengzengqiang，youwangzengqiangqiyekuozhangshengchan、zengjiatouziyiyuan，jinkouxuqiuyouwanggaishan。”zhoumaohuashuo。

王青表示，12月9日中央政治局会议要求“实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，扩大国内需求”，“加强超常规逆周期调节”，这将对市场信心产生有力提振，加之前期出台的一揽子增量政策进一步显效，以及各地为完成今年经济社会发展目标而在年底前发力稳增长，年底进口需求存在改善空间。不过，考虑到去年同期进口基数有所抬升，以及10月中旬以来大宗商品价格回落可能在12月进口数据上有所反映，12月进口同比增速改善幅度可能有限，预计将在0%附近。