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如何理解“加强超常规逆周期调节”,财政货币“双松”要来了?

“jiaqiangchaochangguinizhouqidiaojie”detifashibencihuiyidezuidaliangdian,yushizhehouxuzhengcededuoyuanhuahelidudequanmianjiada。

2024年12月8日,广西梧州,长洲区倒水镇大垌村的苍容高速互通,工人正在加紧施工。图片来源:CFP

记者 王珍

zhonggongzhongyangzhengzhijuzhouyizhaokaihuiyi,fenxiyanjiu2025nianjingjigongzuo。huiyitichu“gengjiajijidecaizhengzhengce”、“shidukuansongdehuobizhengce”yiji“jiaqiangchaochangguinizhouqidiaojie”zheisanxiangbiaoshu,yinqishichangguangfanguanzhu。

cicihuiyixiangjiaoyuzhiqiandezhongyangzhengzhijuhuiyi,zaicuocishangchuxianlemingxianqianghua。7yue30ridehuiyiyaoqiu“shishihaojijidecaizhengzhengcehewenjiandehuobizhengce”,9yue26ridehuiyizezhichu“yaojiadacaizhenghuobizhengcenizhouqidiaojielidu”。erdaole12yue9ridehuiyi,zhengcebiaoshujinyibushengji,mingquetichule“shishigengjiajijidecaizhengzhengceheshidukuansongdehuobizhengce,chongshiwanshanzhengcegongjuxiang,jiaqiangchaochangguinizhouqidiaojie”。

jieshoujiemianxinwencaifangdezhuanjiarenwei,“jiaqiangchaochangguinizhouqidiaojie”detifashibencihuiyidezuidaliangdian。zheiyibiaoshubujinshoucichuxianzaizhongdahuiyizhong,gengyushizhehouxuzhengcededuoyuanhuahelidudequanmianjiada。

guangkaishouxichanyeyanjiuyuanyuanzhangjianshouxijingjixuejialianpingzhichu,woguoshishijijidecaizhengzhengceyida15nianzhijiu,dan“gengjiajijidecaizhengzhengce”tifajiaoweishaojian。dangqianwoguojingjiyunxingzongtipingwen、wenzhongyoujin,danneixubuzuwentirengzaichixu,qiemingnianjingjiyunxingjiangmianlingengdadewaibuchongji;weiyouxiaocijixiaofei、kuodatouzi、wenwaimao、wenwaizi,zhongyangtichu2025nianyaoshishigengjiajijidecaizhengzhengce,jiushiyaocaiqubi2024niangengdalidudezhengcecuoshiyijiakuaijingjiqiwenhuisheng。

huobizhengcejidiaoyechuxianlexianzhudebianhua,you“wenjian”diaozhengwei“shidukuansong”,zheiyibianhuatongyangyinrenzhumu。fenxirenshizhichu,shangyicizhongguotichu“shidukuansong”dehuobizhengceshizai2008niandi,2011nianhoujiubuzaiyou“kuansong”debiaoshu。

lianpingzhichu,dangqianhongguanjingjihejinrongzhibiaojiaoweipiruo,ciqianlianxushishi14niande“wenjian”huobizhengcejidiaoyushichangxinliyuqizhijiancunzaimingxianluocha,zaizhengcelidushangshangyoubuzu。bencihuobizhengcejidiaoyou“wenjian”diaozhengwei“shidukuansong”hou,keyigengdachengdushangpeihehaogengjiajijidecaizhengzhengce,shishi“shuangsong”zuhe,jinyibuzengqiangchaochangguinizhouqidiaojiedezhengcexiaoguo。

jinjinian,woguojingjimianlinjiaodaxiaxingyali,zhengcecengmianchixujiadalenizhouqidiaojielidu,jinnianyilaiyijingleijixiadiaocunkuanzhunbeijinlv1gebaifendian、xiadiaozhengcelilv0.3gebaifendian、yicixingdaguimoxiadiaocunliangfangdaililv、jiechuxiangouxiandai、zengfatebieguozhaiyuchaozhangqitebieguozhai、yicixingzengjia6wanyiyuandifangzhuanxiangzhaieduyongyuhuajiedifangyinxingzhaiwudengdeng,jiaoyiwangnianduhongguanzhengcedecaozuolidudafuzengjia。2025nianwoguojingjiyunxingsuomianlindeneiwaibuyalibujian,yinciyoubiyaojiaqiangchaochangguidenizhouqidiaojie。

lianpingbiaoshi,“chaochanggui”nizhouqidiaojiekenengtixianzaizhengcesilugengjiajiji、gongjugengjiafengfu、caozuolidugengda、gengyouzhenduixing、gengjuzonghexingdengduogefangmian。shouxianshicaiyong“chaochanggui”dezhengcegongju,2025nianzhengcecaozuosiluhuigengjiajiji,jiangbujuxianyuchuantongdezhengcegongju,huijiejianguowaijingyanjinyibuchongshiwanshanzhengcegongjuxiang,biru,yangxingdaguimogoumaiguozhai、chenglitedingmudegongsihuojijinzhijiegoumaifangdichanxiangguanzichan、chenglipingzhunjijinzhichigushifazhandeng。

qicishizhengcegongjucaozuoguimojiangchixujiama。caizhengzhengcefangmian,fenxirenshibiaoshi,jiangdaguimozengjiacaizhengchizi,chizilvdafutishengzhi4%yishang;faxinggengdaguimodetebieguozhai,guoqushi1wanyiyuan,jinhoukenenghuizengdazhi2wanyiyuanyishang。

lianpingyuji,quannianyouwanganpaichizilv4%-4.5%,chiziguimo5.5wanyiyuanyishang,guangyichizilvshengzhi10%yishang,yishifangzhengcejiamaxinhao、wendingyuqi、zengqiangxinxin。qici,difangzhuanxiangzhaieduyouwangtishengzhi6wanyiyuanyishang,yongyubuchongdifangcaili,jinyibujiadajijian、nonglinshuili、nengyuan、cangchuwuliu、baozhangxinganjugongchengdenglingyudetouzizhichi,qizhong2.8wanyiyuanweifadingchengxushenyitongguoyongyuhuajieyinxingzhaiwudeedu。disan,youwangzengfa2wanyiyuanchaozhangqitebieguozhai,yibufenjiangjixuyongyuzhichi“liangzhong”(guojiazhongdazhanlveshishihezhongdianlingyuanquannenglijianshe)he“liangxin”(shebeigengxinhexiaofeipinyijiuhuanxin)gongzuo,yibufenhaikenengyongyuzhichixinxingchengzhenhuajianshe。

dongfangjinchengshouxihongguanfenxishiwangqingbiaoshi,mingnian“lianghui”zhengfugongzuobaogaoquedingdemubiaocaizhengchizilvhuicongjinniande3.0%shangdiaozhi4.0%zuoyou,chizijiangzhuyaoyouzhongyangcaizhengchengdan;xinzengdifangzhuanxiangzhaiguimohuicongjinniande3.9wanyiyuankuodadao7wanyiyuanzuoyou(baohan2.8wanyiyuanhuazhaiedu);yujimingnianchaozhangqitebieguozhaifaxingguimohuicongjinniande1wanyiyuantigaozhi1.5wanyizhi2wanyiyuan,chujixuzhichi“liangzhong”touziwai,dui“liangxin”dezhichiliduhuicongjinniande3000yiyuanjiadadao6000yiyuanzuoyou。zheijiangdui2025niankuotouzi、cuxiaofeixingchengqiangyoulidezhicheng。

huobizhengcefangmian,fenxirenshibiaoshi,yangxingjiangzai2025nianjixushishiyoulidudejiangxijiangzhuncaozuo,yiyindaoqiyehejuminrongzichengbenxiaxing。zheibujinjiangcujinxindaizengzhang、cijixuqiukuozhang,gengjiangweijingjizengzhangtigongyoulizhicheng。

lianpingyuji,2025nianquannianyouwangjiangzhun1gebaifendianzuoyou,shifangjin3wanyiyuanyishangliudongxing;jiangxifuduzai40-50gejidian,muqianyinxingjingxichamianlinyidingyali,2025nianzaidushishigengdajiangxifengxianxiangduijiaogao,qielilvgongjuxuyaoweijianglailiuyouyidingdecaozuokongjian;ciwai,youwangjinyibutishengxianyoujiegouxinggongjudeeduyushiyonglv,chixufahuijiegouyouhuazuoyong。

yinhezhengquanshouxijingjixuejiazhangjunyuji,2025nianquanniankenengleijidiaojiangzhengcelilv40-60gejidian,yindao5nianqilpr(daikuanshichangbaojialilv)xiaxing60-100gejidian;quanniankenengleijijiangzhun150-250gejidian。

wangqingbiaoshi,2025nianzhengcexingjiangxifuduyoukenengdadao0.5gebaifendian,mingxiangaoyujinnian0.3gebaifendiandejiangxifudu,bupaichutongguojiaodafuduyindao5nianqiyishanglprbaojiaxiaxingdengfangshijixuduijuminfangdaishishijiaodalidudingxiangjiangxidekeneng。tahaiqiangdiao,2025nianrenminbihuilvkenenghuichuxianyidingfududebodong,danbuhuidongyao“shidukuansong”dehuobizhengcelichang。

disan,“chaochanggui”nizhouqidiaojietixianzaizhengcegongjucaozuogengjuzhenduixing,ruzhuanxiangjiejueyinxingzhaiwuwentidegongju、jiejuefangdichanshichangfengxianwentidegongju、tizhengushidegongju、jiejuezhongxiaoyinxingfengxiandegongju、jingwaijiazhengguanshuideyingduigongju。

disishihongguandiaokongjianggengjuzonghexing。lianpingbiaoshi,2024nianyilanzizengliangzhengcechutaishi,zhongyangjinyibuqiangdiaoleyaojiaqiangzhengcejian、bumenjiandexiediaopeihe;2025nianyaodahaozhengce“zuhequan”,xuyaozhongyanggebuwei、gezhuzedanweijiaqiangpeihe,gexiangzhengcecuoshichutaiyushishiguochengzhongyaozhuzhongxitongjicheng、xietongpeihe,quanfangweidituijingexiangpeihegongzuo,jinyibutishenghongguanzhengceshishixiaoguo。

wangqingrenwei,mianduigeleiqianzaineiwaibuchongji,2025nianhongguanjingjijiangjixuzhanxianqiangdarenxing。qizhong,minyingqiyehuoli、xinzhishengchanlifazhanhe“chaochangguinizhouqidiaojie”jiangshizhuyaozhichengdian。yujigdpzengsuyouwangdadao4.7%zuoyoudejiaokuaizengzhangshuiping,congerquebao“shisiwu”guihuashunlishouguan,wendingjiuyedaju。

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如何理解“加强超常规逆周期调节”,财政货币“双松”要来了?

“jiaqiangchaochangguinizhouqidiaojie”detifashibencihuiyidezuidaliangdian,yushizhehouxuzhengcededuoyuanhuahelidudequanmianjiada。

2024年12月8日,广西梧州,长洲区倒水镇大垌村的苍容高速互通,工人正在加紧施工。图片来源:CFP

记者 王珍

zhonggongzhongyangzhengzhijuzhouyizhaokaihuiyi,fenxiyanjiu2025nianjingjigongzuo。huiyitichu“gengjiajijidecaizhengzhengce”、“shidukuansongdehuobizhengce”yiji“jiaqiangchaochangguinizhouqidiaojie”zheisanxiangbiaoshu,yinqishichangguangfanguanzhu。

cicihuiyixiangjiaoyuzhiqiandezhongyangzhengzhijuhuiyi,zaicuocishangchuxianlemingxianqianghua。7yue30ridehuiyiyaoqiu“shishihaojijidecaizhengzhengcehewenjiandehuobizhengce”,9yue26ridehuiyizezhichu“yaojiadacaizhenghuobizhengcenizhouqidiaojielidu”。erdaole12yue9ridehuiyi,zhengcebiaoshujinyibushengji,mingquetichule“shishigengjiajijidecaizhengzhengceheshidukuansongdehuobizhengce,chongshiwanshanzhengcegongjuxiang,jiaqiangchaochangguinizhouqidiaojie”。

jieshoujiemianxinwencaifangdezhuanjiarenwei,“jiaqiangchaochangguinizhouqidiaojie”detifashibencihuiyidezuidaliangdian。zheiyibiaoshubujinshoucichuxianzaizhongdahuiyizhong,gengyushizhehouxuzhengcededuoyuanhuahelidudequanmianjiada。

guangkaishouxichanyeyanjiuyuanyuanzhangjianshouxijingjixuejialianpingzhichu,woguoshishijijidecaizhengzhengceyida15nianzhijiu,dan“gengjiajijidecaizhengzhengce”tifajiaoweishaojian。dangqianwoguojingjiyunxingzongtipingwen、wenzhongyoujin,danneixubuzuwentirengzaichixu,qiemingnianjingjiyunxingjiangmianlingengdadewaibuchongji;weiyouxiaocijixiaofei、kuodatouzi、wenwaimao、wenwaizi,zhongyangtichu2025nianyaoshishigengjiajijidecaizhengzhengce,jiushiyaocaiqubi2024niangengdalidudezhengcecuoshiyijiakuaijingjiqiwenhuisheng。

huobizhengcejidiaoyechuxianlexianzhudebianhua,you“wenjian”diaozhengwei“shidukuansong”,zheiyibianhuatongyangyinrenzhumu。fenxirenshizhichu,shangyicizhongguotichu“shidukuansong”dehuobizhengceshizai2008niandi,2011nianhoujiubuzaiyou“kuansong”debiaoshu。

lianpingzhichu,dangqianhongguanjingjihejinrongzhibiaojiaoweipiruo,ciqianlianxushishi14niande“wenjian”huobizhengcejidiaoyushichangxinliyuqizhijiancunzaimingxianluocha,zaizhengcelidushangshangyoubuzu。bencihuobizhengcejidiaoyou“wenjian”diaozhengwei“shidukuansong”hou,keyigengdachengdushangpeihehaogengjiajijidecaizhengzhengce,shishi“shuangsong”zuhe,jinyibuzengqiangchaochangguinizhouqidiaojiedezhengcexiaoguo。

jinjinian,woguojingjimianlinjiaodaxiaxingyali,zhengcecengmianchixujiadalenizhouqidiaojielidu,jinnianyilaiyijingleijixiadiaocunkuanzhunbeijinlv1gebaifendian、xiadiaozhengcelilv0.3gebaifendian、yicixingdaguimoxiadiaocunliangfangdaililv、jiechuxiangouxiandai、zengfatebieguozhaiyuchaozhangqitebieguozhai、yicixingzengjia6wanyiyuandifangzhuanxiangzhaieduyongyuhuajiedifangyinxingzhaiwudengdeng,jiaoyiwangnianduhongguanzhengcedecaozuolidudafuzengjia。2025nianwoguojingjiyunxingsuomianlindeneiwaibuyalibujian,yinciyoubiyaojiaqiangchaochangguidenizhouqidiaojie。

lianpingbiaoshi,“chaochanggui”nizhouqidiaojiekenengtixianzaizhengcesilugengjiajiji、gongjugengjiafengfu、caozuolidugengda、gengyouzhenduixing、gengjuzonghexingdengduogefangmian。shouxianshicaiyong“chaochanggui”dezhengcegongju,2025nianzhengcecaozuosiluhuigengjiajiji,jiangbujuxianyuchuantongdezhengcegongju,huijiejianguowaijingyanjinyibuchongshiwanshanzhengcegongjuxiang,biru,yangxingdaguimogoumaiguozhai、chenglitedingmudegongsihuojijinzhijiegoumaifangdichanxiangguanzichan、chenglipingzhunjijinzhichigushifazhandeng。

qicishizhengcegongjucaozuoguimojiangchixujiama。caizhengzhengcefangmian,fenxirenshibiaoshi,jiangdaguimozengjiacaizhengchizi,chizilvdafutishengzhi4%yishang;faxinggengdaguimodetebieguozhai,guoqushi1wanyiyuan,jinhoukenenghuizengdazhi2wanyiyuanyishang。

lianpingyuji,quannianyouwanganpaichizilv4%-4.5%,chiziguimo5.5wanyiyuanyishang,guangyichizilvshengzhi10%yishang,yishifangzhengcejiamaxinhao、wendingyuqi、zengqiangxinxin。qici,difangzhuanxiangzhaieduyouwangtishengzhi6wanyiyuanyishang,yongyubuchongdifangcaili,jinyibujiadajijian、nonglinshuili、nengyuan、cangchuwuliu、baozhangxinganjugongchengdenglingyudetouzizhichi,qizhong2.8wanyiyuanweifadingchengxushenyitongguoyongyuhuajieyinxingzhaiwudeedu。disan,youwangzengfa2wanyiyuanchaozhangqitebieguozhai,yibufenjiangjixuyongyuzhichi“liangzhong”(guojiazhongdazhanlveshishihezhongdianlingyuanquannenglijianshe)he“liangxin”(shebeigengxinhexiaofeipinyijiuhuanxin)gongzuo,yibufenhaikenengyongyuzhichixinxingchengzhenhuajianshe。

dongfangjinchengshouxihongguanfenxishiwangqingbiaoshi,mingnian“lianghui”zhengfugongzuobaogaoquedingdemubiaocaizhengchizilvhuicongjinniande3.0%shangdiaozhi4.0%zuoyou,chizijiangzhuyaoyouzhongyangcaizhengchengdan;xinzengdifangzhuanxiangzhaiguimohuicongjinniande3.9wanyiyuankuodadao7wanyiyuanzuoyou(baohan2.8wanyiyuanhuazhaiedu);yujimingnianchaozhangqitebieguozhaifaxingguimohuicongjinniande1wanyiyuantigaozhi1.5wanyizhi2wanyiyuan,chujixuzhichi“liangzhong”touziwai,dui“liangxin”dezhichiliduhuicongjinniande3000yiyuanjiadadao6000yiyuanzuoyou。zheijiangdui2025niankuotouzi、cuxiaofeixingchengqiangyoulidezhicheng。

huobizhengcefangmian,fenxirenshibiaoshi,yangxingjiangzai2025nianjixushishiyoulidudejiangxijiangzhuncaozuo,yiyindaoqiyehejuminrongzichengbenxiaxing。zheibujinjiangcujinxindaizengzhang、cijixuqiukuozhang,gengjiangweijingjizengzhangtigongyoulizhicheng。

lianpingyuji,2025nianquannianyouwangjiangzhun1gebaifendianzuoyou,shifangjin3wanyiyuanyishangliudongxing;jiangxifuduzai40-50gejidian,muqianyinxingjingxichamianlinyidingyali,2025nianzaidushishigengdajiangxifengxianxiangduijiaogao,qielilvgongjuxuyaoweijianglailiuyouyidingdecaozuokongjian;ciwai,youwangjinyibutishengxianyoujiegouxinggongjudeeduyushiyonglv,chixufahuijiegouyouhuazuoyong。

yinhezhengquanshouxijingjixuejiazhangjunyuji,2025nianquanniankenengleijidiaojiangzhengcelilv40-60gejidian,yindao5nianqilpr(daikuanshichangbaojialilv)xiaxing60-100gejidian;quanniankenengleijijiangzhun150-250gejidian。

wangqingbiaoshi,2025nianzhengcexingjiangxifuduyoukenengdadao0.5gebaifendian,mingxiangaoyujinnian0.3gebaifendiandejiangxifudu,bupaichutongguojiaodafuduyindao5nianqiyishanglprbaojiaxiaxingdengfangshijixuduijuminfangdaishishijiaodalidudingxiangjiangxidekeneng。tahaiqiangdiao,2025nianrenminbihuilvkenenghuichuxianyidingfududebodong,danbuhuidongyao“shidukuansong”dehuobizhengcelichang。

disan,“chaochanggui”nizhouqidiaojietixianzaizhengcegongjucaozuogengjuzhenduixing,ruzhuanxiangjiejueyinxingzhaiwuwentidegongju、jiejuefangdichanshichangfengxianwentidegongju、tizhengushidegongju、jiejuezhongxiaoyinxingfengxiandegongju、jingwaijiazhengguanshuideyingduigongju。

disishihongguandiaokongjianggengjuzonghexing。lianpingbiaoshi,2024nianyilanzizengliangzhengcechutaishi,zhongyangjinyibuqiangdiaoleyaojiaqiangzhengcejian、bumenjiandexiediaopeihe;2025nianyaodahaozhengce“zuhequan”,xuyaozhongyanggebuwei、gezhuzedanweijiaqiangpeihe,gexiangzhengcecuoshichutaiyushishiguochengzhongyaozhuzhongxitongjicheng、xietongpeihe,quanfangweidituijingexiangpeihegongzuo,jinyibutishenghongguanzhengceshishixiaoguo。

wangqingrenwei,mianduigeleiqianzaineiwaibuchongji,2025nianhongguanjingjijiangjixuzhanxianqiangdarenxing。qizhong,minyingqiyehuoli、xinzhishengchanlifazhanhe“chaochangguinizhouqidiaojie”jiangshizhuyaozhichengdian。yujigdpzengsuyouwangdadao4.7%zuoyoudejiaokuaizengzhangshuiping,congerquebao“shisiwu”guihuashunlishouguan,wendingjiuyedaju。

未经正式授权严禁转载本文,侵权必究。