文｜财经故事荟 王萍

编辑｜万天南

“meixiangdaoyamaxundeheiwudacu，maidehaibururichang。guanggaofeizhangle，zhuanhualvyuanbibushangpingshi。”yamaxunmaijiachenxiaodongnanyanshiwang，“tousankuaideguanggao，huanlaiyikuaidexiaoshoue，meifawanle”。weici，tatiqiantuichuleheiwudacuhuodong。

temumaijialiuleyeyudaoleisideqingkuang，jishicanjialepingtaihuodong，dingdanyiranbuwending，youshijishigedingdan，youshiquezhiyoujigedingdan。

“yulubujunzhan”，shijinnian“heiwu”yizhongkuajingdianshangmaijiafuzaxinqingdexiezhao， yetongguoshujuyoulegengjuxianghuadetixian。

justatistics.blackfridayshujuxianshi，2024nianmeiguoxiaofeizhezai“heiwu”dangtiandezaixianxiaofeidadao108yimeiyuan，tongbizengzhang10.2%，yeshiguoqusannian（7.8%、2.3%he-1.3%）dezuigaoshuiping，danxianzhudiyu2020nianjiyiqian15%yishangdezengsu。

temu、tiktok、yamaxunjingguoliangniandeshitanyuduikang，zhijizhibi，tongxiangbutonglu，bubuzouruduifangdefudi。 heiwudacu，zhengzaiheguoneideshuang11yiyang，biandeyuefaneijuan。

一、3元的广告，1元的业绩，流量去哪儿了？

11yue21ri，chenxiaodongcanjialeyamaxunde“heiwu”dacuhuodong，anyaoqiujishangpindale8zhe，shiyongyuprimehuiyuan。

zuoweichangerdaidechenxiaodong，zuoyamaxunyiyouliangnian，qunianjiucanjiaguoyici“heiwu”huodong，dangshishouhuolekeguandedingdan，xiwangjinniannenggengjinyibu。

pingshi，tadianpudeacos（advertising cost of sale）nengkongzhizai25%yinei。haodeshihou，qiacosshujushenzhinengbudao20%。“acoszhideshiguanggaochengbenxiaoshoubi，jizaiguanggaoshangdezhichuzhanxiaoshoushourudebili，shiyonglaihengliangshangjiaguanggaotoururoibiaoxiandeguanjianzhibiao，gaizhibiaoyuediyuehao。”tajieshi。

canjiayamaxun“heiwu”huodonghou，zaichenxiaodongdeyuliaozhong，dianpudedianjilianghepuguanglvqueshishangsheng，danmeixiangdaodeshi，acosshujuturanbiaodao300%zuoyou——toufang3yuandeguanggaofei，cainenghuanlai1yuandexiaoshoue。

weilejishizhisun，chenxiaodongzai11yue30rijiutuichulehuodong，eryamaxunheiwuguanfangdacujieshushijianwei12yue2ri。tuichudacuhou，dianpudedingdanliangyouhuifuzhengchang。rujin，duiyamaxunyouxieshiwangdechenxiaodong，kaishikaolvchangshitemudequantuoguanmoshile。

danbushisuoyoudetemumaijia，doukeyiqingsongnaniezengzhang。

temubantuoguanshangjialiule，yiduduiheiwudacuqidaihengao， “zhengtidingdanliangzhongguizhongju。”weiyutemuheiwudacuzhouqide11yue29ri，qidingdanliangjiaoqianyitianshangzhangchaoguo10%，quejiaojin7rixiajianglechao8%。

liulezuodeshitemuribenzhan。jugongkaiziliao，temuzaijinnian8yuezairibentuichulequantuoguanmoshi，bimeiguozhanwanle5geyue。10yuezhongxun，liulezaitemumaichulediyidan，10yuediyinglaiyixiaoboduanzandedingdangaofeng，danrishouchuershiduodan，cishizhengshitemukaiqiyuredejieduan。suihou，dingdanzhuanerbodongshixiajiang。“jiuganjueheiwuyiban，cuoguojinnianderedule，dengmingnianzaidagan。”

xiangbiquantuoguanmoshi，bantuoguanmoshijileshangjiagengdadeziyouhekongjian。quantuoguanmoshixia，pingtaiquanbulanxiayunying、dingjia、wuliu、shouhoufuwudenghuanjie，shangjiazhixugonghuo。erxuanzebantuoguandeshangjia，bixudezaihaiwaiyoucangku，xuyaofuzeshangpinkucunguanlihewuliufuwu，gaimoshiyoualisumaitongzuixiantuichu，temuxunsugenjin。

wulunshiquantuoguanhaishibantuoguan，temudoutigongguanggaotuiguanghekefuzhichi。liulebiaoshi，zaitemuzijijibenbuyongguanyunying，danhuibeipingtaicuizhebaomingcanjiahuodong，peihedazhe、songyouhuiquandeng，jibianruci，baolehuodongyebujiandeyidinghuiyouliuliang。

suoyiliuleyemeiyoudasuanba“jidanquanfangzaitemu”,qiyamaxundianpugangyunyingleyigeduoxingqi，danrixiaoliangnengyou20duodan。

tiktok shopmeiguozhanmaijiakevindeheiwugmvdaoshishangshengle，kechengbenyezhixianwangshangzou。“heiwubaodanzhengchang，danbaodangenzhuanqianshiliangmashi，zhishaowosuanzhanghoufaxianhaimeipingshizhuanqian”，kevintoulu。‍‍

tiktok shopfabudechengjidanqueshiliangyan—— “heiwu”dangtian，qimeiguoshichangzhengtixiaoshouetupo1yimeiyuan，zai“heisexingqiwu”he“wangluoxingqiyi”zhijianliangtianxiyindegouwuzheyetongbizengzhangle165%。

zonghe36kehepengboshebaodao，tiktokdianshangzai2024niandingxia500yimeiyuandegmvmubiao，jimeiququanniandegmvmubiaoshi175yimeiyuan。jinniandeqianjigeyuezhong，tiktokshopmeiqudegmvgaodianshi10yuede7.93yimeiyuan。keyikanchu，jinnianpingtaidegmvyalijihuquanbujidaolenianmo。

shanghaizishenkuajingrenshiponytoulu，jutahedianshangmaijiadejiaoliu，tiktokdianshangdequanniandegmvmubiaoshi150yimeiyuan，jiezhimuqianjinwanchengjin80duoyimeiyuan。tajiechudetiktokshopshangjiazhong，xiaoshouezuidadeshangjiadanrimaichu20wanmeiyuan。

“shenbianyamaxunmaijiadedingdanqingkuangdouhenbucuo，jibendoudachengyuqimubiao。tongqiquniandouzai20%zengzhang，danlirunlvjiaoqunianlvedi。”ponybiaoshi，dangxiayamaxunhenkaoyanyunyingnenglihegongyingliannengli，zhiyaoyunyingqiadang，dingdanhaishinengdedaobaozhengde。12yue3riyamaxunguanfangxuanbu，weiqi12tiande“heiwuwangyi”dacuzaixiaoshoueheshouchushangpinshuliangshangjunchuangxingao，chao60%xiaoshouelaizidisanfangmaijia。

shangjiageticengmiandeganshou，yuguanfangshujude“wencha”，yidingchengdufanyingchuliangjifenhuadejumian，wangzheyuewang，danzheyuedan。 chenxiaodongtongyizheigeguandian，“zaiyamaxun，gujizhiyou10%-20%deshangjia，zaizheigeheiwumaidefeichanghao。”

二、短促变长促，黑五卷过双11

2009nian11 yue 11 ri，taobaofaqidiyijie“shuangshiyi”dianshangdacujieri，chixushijianzhiyou1tian。2024nian，jingguo15niandefazhan，“shuangshiyi”yijingbeiduogepingtaijuandaozuizhangzhouqida35tian。

beizhongguodianshangpingtaigaibiande，haiyouguowaide“heiwu”dacu。shangshiji50niandaigangyou“heiwu”zheiyishuofashi，shangjiadedacujinchixuyitian，rujinyecongduancubianchenglezhangcu。

weiqiangzhan“heiwu”liuliang，jinniantemudedacuzhouqikuayuesangeyue，cong10yue20rizhi12yue5ri，zongshizhang47tian，chuangxiaxinjilu。

‌tiktok shoptongyangtiqianbuju，heiwudacuzhouqishezhiwei11yue13rizhi12yue2ri‌，weiqi19tian。

sumaitongdatongguonei“shuangshiyi”yu“heiwuwangyi”lianggejiedian，11yue11rizhi11yue18rixianmai8tian，ranhou11yue22rikaiqidierlunshoumai，yanxudao12yue3ri，zhangda20tian。

xiangbijuanzhangzhouqidezhongguopingtai，yamaxundecuxiaozhouqiyiranpianduan，baoumeigezhandeheiwudacushijianduandingwei11yue21rizhi12yue2ri，weiqi12tian，biqunianjinjinzengjiayitian。

“zhanxian”yuelayuezhang，benzhishangshipingtaixiangzaiquanqiujingjidimimianqian，lvxianqiangdaoliuliang，xiyingengduodexiaofeizhelaigoumai。danduiyushangjiaeryan，bianzhangdedacuzhouqi，wangwangyiweizhebiangaodechengben。

liru，shangjiaxuyaozhunbeigengduodekucunlaibaozhenggongying，bimianduanhuo，danxiaoliangshibuquedingde，ruoxiaoliangjiaocha，dailaijiya，xiangyingdecunchufeiyonghuibiangao。weitishengpuguanglv，henduoshangjiahaiyaoewaitouliumailiangdeng，erzaidacuqijian，liuliangchengbenpubianzougao。

zhiyuduancudeyamaxunshifoubeizhangcudetemudengzhongguopingtaiqiangleliuliang，chenxiaodongrenweiliangzhebingbucunzaiguanlian。tachangshifenxizijidianpuxiaoliangjiaochadeyuanyin：yilai，tajuedezijizhugongdefuzhuangsaidaotaijuan，jingzhengguoyujilie；erlai，2021nian、2022niantiqiantouzhilemeiguodexiaofei，yougaofeng，biranyejiuyoudigu。

ciwai， “shuangshiyi”xianzhangjia、houjiangjiadetaolu，yebeiguoneidianshangpingtaibandaole“heiwu”。liulefaxian，heiwudacuqian，tazuoweishangjia，hetemupingtaizaihoutaidejiesuanjiabingwubianhua，dantemubaqiantaizhenduiyonghudelingshoujiagediaogaole。

qitapingtaiyecunzaileisideqingkuang，dacuqianhoudeshangpindingjiabingbuwending。yiweixiaofeizhezaishejiaopingtaitucao，zaisheinxiadanmaileyiduinvxie，daohuoqianfaxianjuranjiangjia7meiyuan，ganjuebeipingtaiwannong，suihouyoufaxianzijimaidaoshoudeqitayifuzai“heiwu”dangtianqiaoqiaozhangjia。

he《caijinggushihui》jiaoliuguodekuajingshangjiadoubiaoshi，pingtaizhijianhuoyaoweishizu，neijuanchengduyouzengwujian，danheguonei“shuangshiyi”yiyang，jinnian“heiwu”dijiafenweidanleyixie，gedapingtaifalidianzhongzaituchuzishenyoushi。

temudanshengjin2nian，rengzainuliqianghuazuidijiadeyonghuxinzhi，jinnian“heiwu”temuyirangaojudijiadaqi，dianzichanpin、jiatingcunchu、xiezi、peishidengchanpindezhekouzuigaoshenzhikeda90%，shengdanmao1meiyuan、shengdanzhuangshihua2meiyuanrenxuandeng。

tiktokzetuichuyutemudezhengmianjiageduikang，zhuyaozaizhijiangbutiehuodongzhongjiyudanshangpinpingtaizuigaobutie30meiyuan，ranhouzhuanzhuyuzijideshushiqu，teyishelimaijiazhibozhengbasaiyuduanshipinchuangyitiaozhansai，haiyaoqingzhiminggeshou“malaji”daihuo。

zaizuigao90%dezhekouyu“baiyibutie”yiwai，sumaitongdecelveshinaqianzaliuliang，zaimeiguolianhechaoguo1000mingwanghongfaqiyaoyiyao1meiyuantiaozhansai。tongshi，sumaitonghaiyouhuatuihuozhengce，baokuohecha、lanjieyichangtuikuanhedandeng。

yamaxunchuleqiangdiaoxingjiabi，tichu“tibaoheiwuwangyideprimezhuanxiangzhekoujiage，bixubicankaojiadizhishao15%”，yezhenduishangjiatuichuyouhui——“goumaipeisong”dewuliufuwuxianshijiangdaole68zhe。

三、亚马逊往下卷，Temu、TikTok向上卷

jinnianlai，temu、tiktokshoptdengzhongguokuajingdianshangpingtaiqiangshijueqi，bubuqinruyamaxundefudi。jusimilarweb 9yuefabudeshuju，temuchaoyueebay，chengweiquanqiufangwenliangpaimingdierdedianshangwangzhan，jinciyuyamaxun。

jinnian“heiwu”qianxi，yamaxunzhongquanfanji，11yue13rishangxianledijiashangchenghaul。

pinleishang，zheixieshangpinjunshitemu、shein、tiktokdengpingtaiderexiaoleixing，fugaifuzhuang、zhubao、jiaju、meizhuang、dianzi、peishi、chufangyongpindeng15gedalei。

jiageshang，suoyouchanpinjunzai20meiyuanjiyixia，juedabufenshangpinpubiandiyu10meiyuan，duozhongshangpinbeixianzhizuigaobudechaoguo7meiyuan，shenzhibufa1.79meiyuandeshoujiqiao、1.99meiyuandenvshiyaodaidengdijiabaipaishangpin。yaozhidao，yamaxunxianglaishigulishangjiafazhanzizhupinpaide。

“guanyuyamaxundijiashangchenghaul，jiajupinleichudanbijiaomeng，danrinengda200danzuoyou。”ponybiaoshi，henduozhongguoshangjiadoumoquancazhang，xiangyaoruzhuhaul，baomingshifenyongyue。danyinmuqianchuyushouyaoruzhujieduan，jinyou1000jiazuoyoudeyamaxunshangjiashouyaoruzhu，shouyaopinleixianzhijiaoda，youdaijinyibukaifang。jijiahuanxijijiachou，bushao3cleimushangjiarichudanjingeweishu。

dangyamaxunxiangxiajuandijia，tiktokfanerkaishixiangshangjuan。 tiktokshopdiaozhenglezhaoshangzhengce，2025nianqijiangdalifazhan60yuanyishanggonghuodanjiadechanpin，bingduiqijiyuxiangyingdeliuliangqingxie。

jinnian11yue，tiktokmeiqukuajingdiangengxinleruzhuzhengce，fangkuanxinshangjiadejinrumenjian，zhiyaojuyoubentubeihuotiaojianheyingyezhizhaojiukeshenqingkaidian，haiyunxubufenchuangzuozhezaiqichuangzuoneirongzhongtianjiadisanfanggouwulianjie，baokuoyamaxun、woerma、cjdeng。zheiyiweizhe，tiktokshenzhibujieyiweijingzhengduishouyinliu，zhiyaoshangjiayuanyilai。

temuzaijianchidijiazhengcedetongshi，yeduigaodanjiachanpinchikaifangdetaidu。muqian ，temuzhaoshangrenyuanjilizhengquyamaxunshangjia，eryamaxunshangjiatongchangyongyoufengfudeyunyingjingyanhechengshudegongyingliannengli，zhangwoxingjiabigaodeyouzhishangpin。

buliuyulizhengduoyamaxunshangjiabeihou，shiwaibuhuanjingderiqufuza，youqizaimeiguo，temu、tiktokmianlinzhemianshuihonglixiaoshideyali。

meiguobaidengzhengfu9yuebiaoshi，jiangjiaqiangdui“xiaoehuomian”baoguodejianguan，tebieshiduilaizizhongguodehuowu。telangpudeguanshuizhengcegengjiajijin，shichangyucezaiqirenqineijiangshoujinhuoquxiao800meiyuanyixiabaoguomianshuidezhengce。

suowei“xiaoehuomian”zhengce，shimeirenmeitiankeyijinkoubuchaoguo800meiyuandeshangpinerwuxujiaonaguanshui。qichu，yamaxunshizuidadeshouyizhe，suizhetemu、shein、tiktokdengpingtaizaimeiguojueqi，fenzouleyamaxundefene。

shujuxianshi，2023nian，yiju“xiaoehuomian”zhengcejinkoudehuowujiazhida234yimeiyuan，qizhonglaizizhongguodehuowujiazhiyue46yimeiyuan，sheinyutemugongzhansanchengfene。

ruguonanyibimianzuihuaidejieguo，neimetemumenjiudezuohaohuanchong，tiqiangaibianzishenyishihexinhuanjing，erbushisishoudijiashichang。

jinguankuajingdianshangshichangyuefaneijuan，danwulunshipingtaiheshangjia，ningyuanzaifengkoushicuo，yebuyuancuoguofengkou。

（ 文中受访者均为化名。 ）