wen | zhaibo pangmengyuan

01 库存变多，服装还是一门好生意吗？

2024nian11yuezhongxunzhiqian，chudongbei、beijingdengshaoshubeifangchengshiwai，quanguodaduoshudifanghaiweipubianjiangwen，jiangzhehurijianwenduhaizai20duyishang。jibiangangjinglileyigeshuang11，danbushaodongzhuangchangrengweidengdaojinniandebaodan，fanerkufanglidecunhuohaizaibianduo。

cishijuli2025nianchunjiezhisheng50duotian，fuzhuangchangtongchangzainianqian20duotianjiuhuifangjia，yejiushishuo，ruguoweilaiyigeyuehaibudafanweijiangwen，kenengzhenggedongzhuangshichangdouhuidashouyingxiang，youqishixuedixue、yangrongyangmao、yurongfudengjiduyilaitianqidegongji。

haixinggeshijiangsudanyangdeyigechangerdai，shoushangyouyigechenglile40duonian、10duonianqiancongfubeishouzhongjieshoudepixiechang，yigeyurenhezuodeyanjingchang（danyangshiquanguonaizhiquanshijiedouyoumingdeyanjingchanyedai）heyigequnianrugudexuedixuechang，pixiechangshitazuizhuyaodeshengyi。

qunian，haixinggedexuedixuechangmailedajiwanshuang，jinnianxiandunle5000shuang，dandaoshuang11jieshuqian，pingjunmeitianzhinengmaiersanshidan，zhuyaofawangdongbei。

tarenshideyurongfuchang、yangmaoyangrongchang，bushaodoushiruci。tahaitingshuo，guoneiyangmaoqianduanshijianyinweiyuancailiaozhangjia，bushaoyangmaofuzhuangchangshibantinggongzhuangtai，「bugandunhuo」。

zhejiangjiaxingshiyangmaoyangrongchanyedaijujidizhiyi。dangdiyigebijiaodadeyangmaochanglaobanyegaosuwomen，tamen「jinniankucunfengxianhenda，kucunduolejiangjin10wanjian。」

fuzhuangshigongxuliangduandoufeichangfensandexingye，youyinweijidufeibiao，shoujijieheshishangfengchaoyingxiangda，xiaofeixuqiurongyibeiciji，danyounanyipipei，yincijiyichanshengkucun。

2018niankaishi，zhongguofuzhuangshichangyijingjinrugongjiguoshengjieduan。yeneihenzaojiuyoudiaokan：jibianquanguofuzhuangchangdoutinggong，kucunyegouquanguorenminchuan3nian。

xiangduipiruandejingjizhouqijiajulekucunwentideyanjunxing。jinnianyilai，xuduochanyedouyudaogongjiguoshengwenti，yuandaoshiyou，jindaoruzhipin、canyin，yijifuzhuang。

shangshuyangmaochanglaobangaosuwomen，jinnianshuang11huodongshouri，tamenzaipingtaihuodongdejiachixia，shenzhidapolezhiqiandeshourixiaoshoujilu，danzhenggeshuang11dexiaoshou，jibianzongtianshubianzhang，zongxiaoshouyebujiqunian。

jiutalejiedaodezhoubiangongchangdeqingkuang，jihumeigepingtaideyangmaoxiaoshoudoumeiyoubaode，「yuanlaishuang11deshihou，zheigegongchangyaojiaban，neigegongchangyaofahuo，jinnianmeiyouzheigexianxiang，doubuqise。」

yigejiyichanshengkucundexingye，zaigongjiguoshengdexingyezhouqilidiejiaxiaofeipiruandexiaofeizhouqi，zaochengdejieguozhinengshikufanglidefuzhuangyuelaiyueduo。

shangzhouwude《2024zhongguolingshoushangpinliutongdahui》shang，fengshijituanzhixingfuzongcaizhangzhengcaitidaoyigeshuju：meiniancongweishangjiaxiaoshoudefuzhuangzhanzongchanliangdeyue25%。

shangyezimeiti《yilanshangye》jinnian9yuedetongjijieguoxianshi，52jiashangshixiefuqiyecunhuoliangda536.55yi，pingjunmeijiada10.32yi，zheigeshuzichaoguole24jiashangshiqiyedeshangbannianyingshoushuju。zuoweiduibi，laopaifuzhuangqiyehongdougufenshangbannianyingshou10.81yi，hongqingting11.60yi。

dongzhuangchanglaobandekunjing，shibenjiubuduanjiajudefuzhuangkucunwenti，diejialebulitianqizheimeyigedangxiadexinnanti。

02 库存变多的根本：需求更分散多变

xiaofeipiruandebeijingxia，yixiezhiqianyouxiaodekuodaxiaofeidefangshidaolelinjiedian，kaishicongzhengzuoyongbianweifuzuoyong。

zhibodianshangbianshiruci。zhibodianshangzuichushiyifuzhuangxingyexinjiejuefangandexingxiangchuxiande。

xiangduixianxiahechuantonghuojiadianshanglaishuo，tashiyigexinqudao。jinguanzheigemoshibenshenyufuzhuangxiaoshoudepipeixingshiyouxiande。

congneirongxingshishang，tabihuojiadianshanghetuwengengshihezuochanpinzhanshihejiangjie，yinergengnengjifaxiaofeizhexiadan，yenengbangyixiegengyoushejigandeyifudailaigengduochengjiao，naizhibangyixiexiaozhongshejipinpaizhaodaozijidexifenshouzhong，huodeshizhidepinpaizengzhang。dantongshiyehuiyinweicijixingdailaibubiyaodexiadan。

congliuliangtezhengshang，tayoujiqiangdeliuliangjujixiaoying，danfengguxiaoyingmingxiandedingdanzoushi，huijiajugongyingliandebaodanquehuohuozhegaokucunyali。tadebuquedingxingjigongyinglianderouxingnenglitichulefeichangfeichanggaodetiaozhan。（juwomenlejie，muqianyezhiyouyayadengshaoshujigetoubupinpaijianliqileweiraozhongduanzhibodianshangxiaoshoujiezoudexiaodankuaifanshengchannengli。）

zaizhibodianshangrengyouliulianghongli，zhenggexingyeyuanyiyongtouruhuanzengzhangdeshiqi，neixiebutaipipeidebufenjiukeyibeizengzhangyanmaihuohulve。

suizhedianshangjingzhengdejiaju，「jintuikuan」zaiyiduanshijianneideliuxing，yijijinnian618qianhou，zuoweikucundiaojieqide「yushoumoshi」beijieduanxingquxiao，fuzhuangtuihuolvzaibeiyibubutigao，gongchangdekucunguanlinandudafutisheng。

kucunzhijieyingxiangxianjinliuhuoyuedu，meiyouxianjinliu，renheyigeqiyedoucunbunanxing。

tuihuohaihuizaochengshangjiawuliuchengbenzengjia。nashangshuyangmaochanglaishuo，fachuqudehuodagai 3.5yuanyijian，tuihuowuliu12.5yuanyijian，zaijiashangyunfeixian，liangcidebaozhuangfeiherengongfeisuan1.5dao2yuan，zaibusuanzhibojiantouliudeqingkuangxia，「yijianyifufachuquruguomeiyouchengjiao，womenjiuyijingsunshile20kuaiqian」。

yincipingtaizaijishangjiajianfudeshihou，tongchanghuitidaojishangjianixiangwuliudebutie。birutaobaotuichudetuihuobaofuwu。

xiaofeishoujin+tuihuozengduozhiwai，fuzhuangkucunzengjiadelingyigexingyeyinsushi，suizheneirongpingtaizhujianchengweixiaofeijuecedi，suizheugczaineirongpingtaihuayuquantisheng，xiaofeizhedexuqiubiandegengjiafensan、duobian，xuqiuyucehekuaisufanyingbiandeyuelaiyuenan。

zhiqian，meiniandeliuxingchuandalaiziyinianjidudejidashizhuangzhou，kuaishishangshishizhuangzhoudexiangying，jichukuan、gongnengxingfushiduishishangganyaoqiumeineimegao，baipaigensuikuaishishang。zhengtishichangchuyugongjijuedingxuqiujieduan，yeyincixuqiuxiangduikeyuqi，xiaofeizhedegexinghuaxuqiuyishimeiyoubeipeiyuchulai，ershimeiyoubiaodakongjian。

danzaineirongshidai，chuandabozhuyekeyiyinlingqushi、jujixuqiu（dangchudezhangdayidenghongrenshouxianfahuideyeshizheigezuoyong，zhishidangshimeiyouneimeduozhangdayi），xiaofeizhekeyifanxiangtichugexinghuaxuqiu。chuandabujinshiweilegongneng、weileshishang，yekeyishiweilegexing，weileziwobiaoda。fuzhuang，zaixuqiuduanbiandeyuelaiyuefensan，diedaiyuelaiyuekuai，zaiyixielingyuyuelaiyuebubiaozhunhua。

suoyi，jinguangongyinglianyizhizaijiangxiaodankuaifan、rouxingdingzhi，dangongyinglianshengjisuduhennangenshangzhengtixuqiubianhua，gongxupipeinanduyizhizaibuduanjiada。

fuzhuangshengyiqishishiyuelaiyuenanzuole。zheibuzhishipingtaibutietuihuowuliujiunengjiejuede。

neirongpingtaijierujuece，yegaibianlefuzhuangdejiaoyiliantiaohegehuanjiedelirunfenpei。zainanyikaodaguimoshixianduoxiaodeqingkuangxia，zhengtiyingshouhelirunhuidadazhekou。

jiuxiangyangmaochanglaobansuoshuo，「womenyijingshiyuantougongchang，douzheimenan，bierengengbuyongshuole。」laobanshuo，yangrongyangmaokanshangqushigaodanjia、gaomaolidepinlei（jiejin40%demaoli），dansuanshangpingtaikoudian、zhubogongzi、zhenggetuanduifeiyong，yijishuifei，「yibannengzuodao 5 dao 8 gedianjiuhenkaixinde。」

zhangdayiyezaiguandianweiboyebiaodaguoleisiguandian：「fuzhuangzheigepinleiweibodemaolilvzhichengbulegexiangyunyingchengben，zhuanpingtaidoukui」。

03 基础款、小单快反、尾货特卖渠道，都只能解决一部分问题

xingyeliyizhizaixunzhaotigaofuzhuangkucunzhouzhuanlvdefangshi。fuzhuangxingyedefazhanshi，yidingchengdushangjiushikucunnenglidejinhuashi。naizhijihumeicidadejingjizhouqibiandong，douhuiyoudaizhexindekucunjiejuefangandefuzhuangpinpaidanshengchulai。

jiejuekucunwentidehexin，longtonglaijiang，jiushigengzhunquedexiaofeiyuce，yijigenglinghuohekuaisudegongyinglianfanyingnengli。

youyikuhesheinshibutongzhouqixiamianxiangbutongshichangdeliangzhongjingdiandekucunjiejuefangan。

youyikudanshengzai80niandairibenfangdichanpaomokuibengshi，zoudeshixingjiabijibenkuanluxian，zhongshimianliaochuangxin。xingjiabiqiezhongledangshidexiaofeixuqiu，jibenkuanzexiangdangyutongguojianshaoskudefangshi，huanjielefuzhuangkucunnanti，yaolirong、heatechdengmianliaochuangxinyidingchengdushangyebangyouyikuxingchengleyuqitaxingjiabichanpindechayihua。buguozheiyedaozhiyouyikushangxinzhouqizhang，kuanshishao。

jinjinianguoneiliuxingdegongnengxingyundongfushi、junmafushi，doukeshiweishijibenkuan、jingdiankuandeyizhongyanxu。huiguijingdian，duixiaofeizhelaishuogengshiyong，duishangjialaishuo，yejianshaolefeibiaodailaidekucunnandu。

sheindachengzaiyiqingzhihou，yuyouyikubutongdeshi，sheinzaixingjiabi（pingjun5-25meijinyijian）hehaodekucunguanli（jushuozai30duotian，zarajiangjinbaitian）dejichushang，haiyougenghaodeshejiganhegengkuaideshangxinnengli（4-5wanjianyizhou，congchanpinshejidaoshangjiajinxu14tian）。

sheindehexinnenglishiqianduancongfacebook、instagramdengneirongpingtai、googledengsousuoyinqinghuodexiaofeidongcha；houduanyituozhongguogongyinglianyoushi，yuwushuzhongxiaogongyinglianjianlijinmilianxi，jigongchangxiayangedeshengchanzhiling，baokuomianliao、kuanshi、gongyi，tongshihuibuzugongchangyindingdanxiaoshaozhuandeqian，youdadingdanshihaiyuanyitiqiandakuan；zhongjian，zeyong100jiandexiaodanlaikuaisuceduozhongkuan，ruguofanyinghaojiukuaisujiadashengchan，fanyingbuhaoyezhiyoujishaoliangkucun。

SHEIN上海夜店网

jizhigongyinglian+kuaifannengliyeshikuaishishangpinpaizarachenggongdemijue。sheinbiyibankuaishishanggengjinyibudeshi，tashichedixianshanghuade，yinerxiaodankuaifandenengligengjizhi，tayouzijidexianshangjiaoyipingtai，congneirongpingtaihesousuoyinqingshangxiyinlaideyonghuyehuizaisheinpingtailiuxiazijideliulanhexiaofeishuju，zheixieshujuhuibangzhusheingengjingzhundilejieyonghuxiangyao，gengjingzhundixianggongchangxiadan。

sheinkaichuangdezheizhonggongxupipeidejiejuefangan，yelilaibeixingyeshiweiyoujidadechanyejiazhi。tayouzugoufengfudexiaofeizhedongcha，jiangxiaofeidongchafanyiweikuanshishejidenengli，zugouduodekeyikuaisuxiangyingdegongchang，yijiyizhengtaoshengchan、xiaoshou、kucunguanlitixi，queyibuke。zheiyeshitayoupingtaihuahequanpinleikenengxingdejichu。qielilunshang，ruguosuizhelishixiaofeishujujileiyueduo，gongyinglianyenengchixujinhua，kuaifannenglihuiyuelaiyueqiang。

04 核心是需要关键的中间环节

danmuqianweizhi，guoneifuzhuangxingyebingmeiyouchuxianzijidesheinmoshi。

duizhenggefuzhuangshichanglaishuo，toubupinpaizuojichukuan，zuoxiaodankuaifan，zhishizaizijidefugaifanweinei，bufendijiejuelekucunwenti。

rengzaidafanweicunzaide、youqishizaizhongxiaoshangjiaqunticunzaidekucunnanti，xuyaogengdadonglilaituidonggongxujiegoudebiange，zuogongxupinghengdediaozheng。

weihuotemaiqudaokeyibangzhuxiaohuayibufenyiranchanshengdekucun。weipinhui、aolai，naizhipinduoduo，xianxiadexuduoweihuopifashangjia，doushijingnianleiyuejileixialaidequedingxingde、chengshudeweihuoqudao。

ju《2023—2024zhongguoaotelaisixingyebaipishu》jizhongguobaihuoshangyexiehuishuju，woguoaotelaisixingyezai2023nianxiaoshouguimoyuewei2300yiyuan，tongbizengzhangyue9.5%，zaisuoyoulingshouyetaizhongzengzhangbilizuigao。

xianhuoshengyiyuweihuoshengyikanshangqushiniqiangtajiuruodeguanxi，lazhangzhouqilaikanbingbushi，dajiagongxiangtongyipianxiaofeihuanjing，zhishifuwubutongrenqundepingtaiyougezibutongdeduanqijiyu。

dangqiandexiaofeihuanjingxia，yixieweihuoqudaoyezhengzaimianlinzijidepingjing。

zhuanzhudapaiweihuotemaideweipinhui，lianxu40duogejiduyingli，danjinnianyilai，lianxuyudaoyingshouhelirunxiahua，zhuanerkaishiqiangdiaosvipyonghushuhexiaofeizhanbidezengzhang。qiyuanyinkenengjiubaokuo，dazhouqixia，dapaishangxinpincijianshaohuozhekaishizijianzhekouqudaoshi，weipinhuidehuopingongjifengfudu、jiageyoushiyehuishoudaoyingxiang，diejiaxianshangliuliangyuelaiyuegui，tayezhinengzhuanershousuo，jujiaozuihexindecunliangyonghudexiaofeibaozhang。

xianxiazuoweihuopifadeshangjiayezaidaliangzoudan。douyindengpingtaiyoubushaozheiyangdeshangjiazaifashipinjizijiyinliu，tamendehuoyuanlaizigongchang、dangkou、zhibodianshang，maijixianxiaxiaob，baitanchuangyededaxuesheng，huozhedongnanya、feizhoudenghaiwaishichang，「yijianzhuan1kuaiqian，5maoqian，zhishao100jianqipi，meiyouzhiliangwentibutuihuan。」zheijiushigengshihedabufenzhongxiaoshangjiadeweihuoxiashuidao。

zhaodaogengduoxiashuidao，shizhongxiaoshangjiajiejueyijingcunzaidekucunwentidejibencaozuo。

chuyushengcunxuyao，yixielinghuodezhongxiaoshangjiazaikucunguanlishangyijingbeichuiliandefeichangyoujingyan，youqishinenggouzijibawokehuheshengchandeshangjia。biruwenzhangkaitoutidaodehaixingge。

haixinggeyitouyouzijidegongchang，yitoutongguojingxihuadesiyuyunyingjishiganzhixiaofeizhexuqiu，tongshidingqizaisiyuquntongguofafulidefangshiqingkucun。

yincitafeichangzixin，「womenbuhuisizaikucunshang。」

napixiechangjuli。haixinggedepixiechangyewubaokuosankuai，taobaodianhepinpaidaigong，yiniangejiangjin1000wan，siyukuaituantuanyinianxiaoliangjin200wan。tadexianshangdianpuzhuyaojiushitaobaohekuaituantuan，xiaohongshu、shipinhao、weibozhuyaozuotuanzhanghedarenyinliu。

weibimiankucunwenti，congyuantoushang，pixiechangshezhikucunhongxianweiyiwanshuang，yangezunshou。yidanjiejinjiuyaoxiangbanfakuaisuchuqing。

siyuweixinqunshihaixinggefeichangzhongyaodeqingkucunqudao。muqianyou20duogequn，gong3wanduosiyuyonghu。suoyousiyuyonghudoushixiaofeihouruqun，biruxieziyaoxiaofei3shuangyishang，yanjingyaoxiaofei300yuanyishang。

meigesiyuqunzuidadezuoyongshifafuli，baokuojiejiarihongbao、huiyuanshengrihongbao，yijidingqishangxiandefulikuan，yejiushijianlouweihuo。yizhouzuoyicifulizhibo，taobao、xiaohongshu、shipinhao、kuaituantuanjigepingtailunliuzuo，「bukenengfangzaiyigepingtaishang。」

haixinggeshuo，yonggezhongfangshishangfulikuan，「shijikehufulideyigefangfa，yeshiwomenqingkucundeyigefangfa」。

fulikuandezhiliangheputongkuanmeiyouqubie，zhishikuanshichayi，huozhemashubuyiyang，zhekouquetongchangjinhu5zhe。yincichuqingxiaolvhengao。「yigequnlifang30shuang，jibenshang5fenzhonghuo10fenzhong，miaomei。」

suoyi，jiandanzongjiehaixinggenenggoukuaisuqingkucundeyuanyin，dazhibaokuoyixiajidian：

1.jingxihuadeyonghuyunyinghehaodefuwu。zhiyoulaokehukeyijinqun。qiesuoyouqunbaoyou，baokuopianyuandexinjiang、xizangdiqu。qiejieshoudingzhifuwu，jiaopang、jiaokuan、jiaobeigaodekeyidingzhijiakuan、jiagao，jiabangao。yinianneiyouzhiliangwentikeyituihuan，youguacengkeyijihuimianfeixiubu。

2.ziyougongchang，younenglichengjiedingzhi。

3.donghuo，huoquan。piliaogouhao，laiyuanwendingqiejiagegoudi。

4.kehuqiquan。youdegongchangyouduanmahuo，danshimeiyouduanmadexiaofeizhe，yiyanghuibianchengkucun。danhaixinggejiazhuanmenfenlebutongchimadequn，baokuo32-34dexiaomaqun，40yishangdedamaqun。

haiyouyigexijieshi，haixinggejiadehuomeiyoupinpaibiao。jinguantamendepixieyishuangmailiangsanbaiyuan，genyixiepinpaixiejiaweichabuduo。haixinggemeiyouyaozuogongchangpinpaidexiangfa。tarenweigongchanghepinpaishengyibukejiande，bunengjiyaopinpaideyijia，youxiangxiangshougongchanghuozaijiagehequdaoshangdeziyoudu。

buguo，yinweisiyuzaizhenggeshengyiliantiaolibanyanzhongyaojiaose，suoyitamenfeichangzhongshiyonghutiyan。zaixiezidebaozhuangshang，「yonghenyingshidexiehe，limianbuhuifangyixiezaqizabadedongxi，shoudaodejiushiyishuangzhenglihaodexiezi，henjianyuehenjiandande。」

zheishijishangyeshizaizuocunlianghexinyonghudejingxihuayunying。zailaxinhezengzhangbiandeyuelaiyuenandeshihou，huiyouyuelaiyueduodazhongxiaoshangjiayishidaoyonghujingxihuayunyingdezhongyaoxing。

gerendenuliduigerenlaishuoshiyouxiaode，yeshiyoucankaojiazhide。danzaidadexingyezhuanxiangxuqiumianqian，rengshiweixiaode、kangfengxiannenglibijiaoruode。haixinggedelinghuohejingxihuaduoshushihounenggoujiejuezijiagongchangdekucunwenti，danyudaojiduantianqishirenghuijiaolv。

haozai11yuexiaxun，quanguodajiangwenzhongyudaolai，baokuohaixinggezaineidedongzhuangchangjiakeyishaoweisongyikouqi。

danwomendouzhidao，duizhenggefuzhuangchanyelaishuo，tianqiwulunhaohuohuai，doushiyigefeichangbuquedingdewaibuyinsu。fuzhuangbunengyizhitaikaotianchifan，guanjianhaishiyaohuidaoxiaofeixuqiubawohegongyinglianguanlinenglishanglai。

erzheiyangdediaozheng，dankaogongchanghepinpaishangjiashibuzugoude，xuyaoduigongxudouyoushendulejie，qienengzaigongxuzhijianfahuidiaojiehecuohezuoyongdepingtaichengdanqigengduodezerenlai。

sheinzaihaiwaiyidingchengdushangjiushibanyanlezheigejiaose，youyikudengdadepinpaishangyeshizheiyangdejiaose。tamentongguoshaixuanhuozhejuhegongjihexuqiudefangshi，shixianlegaoxiaopipei，qieyouziwojinhuaheziwodiaojienengli。

xianzai，duiyuzhenggezhongguoshichanglaishuo，xuyaoshejidaogengduoxiaofeizhehegengduogongjidegengdadezhongjianhuanjiezhanchulai。

zheiyangdejiejuefangan，henkenengshiduogepingtaizhangqinulixiatuidongdeduizhenggechanyedehulianwanghuagaizao，erbujinjinshishangxianyigexiaogongju、xiaozhengce，huozheduizhibodianshanghandahansha。

fuzhuangxingyemuqianyudaodewenti，shidangqianjingjixingshidiejiadianshanghuanjingbianhuaxiazuijilie、zuixianzhudetixian。takenengdejiejuefangan，yezhixiangdalingshoushichangxiagejieduanyigekenengdeshengjifangxiang：bujinshishengchanhexiaofeigeming，gengshichuanlianqiliangzhedeliutonggeming。