wenshuluozhiheng majiajin yuanye

12yue11rizhi12ri，zhongyangjingjigongzuohuiyizhaokai。huiyizongjie2024nianjingjigongzuo，fenxidangqianjingjixingshi，bushu2025nianjingjigongzuo。

总体上看，会议的基调更加积极，明年工作目标、政策基调、任务部署等层面都释放了积极的信号，有利于增强和夯实明年经济持续回升向好的动力。zhimiankunnan、tanchengwushi，congjutikunnandaojutimubiao，juyouhenqiangdeqianzhanxinghezhenduixing。yifangmian，zhongyangjingjigongzuohuiyiyanxule12yue9rizhengzhijuhuiyidezhongdapanduanhezhengcequxiang，liru“jingjishehuifazhanzhuyaomubiaorenwujijiangshunliwancheng”“shishigengjiajijiyouweidehongguanzhengce”“gengjiajijidecaizhengzhengce”“shidukuansongdehuobizhengce”“dalitizhenxiaofei、tigaotouzixiaoyi，quanfangweikuodaguoneixuqiu”“wenzhuloushigushi”deng。

另一方面，中央经济工作会议在形势判断和工作部署等方面增添了许多新内容，liru“dangqianwaibuhuanjingbianhuadailaidebuliyingxiangjiashen，woguojingjiyunxingrengmianlinbushaokunnanhetiaozhan，zhuyaoshiguoneixuqiubuzu，bufenqiyeshengchanjingyingkunnan，qunzhongjiuyezengshoumianlinyali，fengxianyinhuanrengranjiaoduo”“tigaocaizhengchizilv”“shishijiangzhunjiangxi”“zonghezhengzhi‘neijuanshi’jingzheng”deng。

一、总体形势判断：肯定经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，但也要正视外部不利因素和困难挑战，坦诚务实又具前瞻性

会议强调了今年经济工作的重要性，并肯定了成绩来之不易。“jinnianshishixian‘shisiwu’guihuamubiaorenwudeguanjianyinian”，nengfoushunlishixiannianchudingxiadejingjizengsumubiao，bujinzhijieguanxiguojiminsheng，haihuiyingxiangyuqi。zhongyang“chenzheyingbian、zongheshice”，shixian“jingjiyunxingzongtipingwen、wenzhongyoujin，jingjishehuifazhanzhuyaomubiaorenwujijiangshunliwancheng”。2024nianzhongguojingjizongtichengvxingzoushi，qiansanjidugdptongbifenbiewei5.3%、4.7%he4.6%，sijiduhuohuishengzhi5%zuoyou，yujiquannianzengsuwei4.9%，jibenshixian“5%zuoyou”deyuqimubiao。

但也要正视当前及明年经济面临的内需不足和外部冲击，会议明确提出“当前外部环境变化带来的不利影响加深，我国经济运行仍面临不少困难和挑战，主要是国内需求不足，部分企业生产经营困难，群众就业增收面临压力，风险隐患仍然较多”，坦诚务实，直面问题是解决问题的前提；很自然地提出“注重目标引领，着力实现增长稳、就业稳和物价合理回升的优化组合”。2025年中国经济运行的主导因素，将从2023-2024年的房地产和地方债务问题转化为房地产和“特朗普冲击”，当然地方债务问题仍需引起关注，即进入“2+1”阶段。一揽子增量政策后，房地产市场正在筑底回稳，保供给、促需求和稳房价仍是核心任务，仍影响着经济运行。同时，特朗普计划对华加征关税，将显著冲击中国出口，短期可能出现“抢出口”现象，但全年仍将承压。此外，居民消费和企业投资仍有待进一步提振。由此，会议提出明年要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大需求，来对冲外部环境的不确定性。dangranyeyaokandao，zhiyaoshishigengdalidudecaizheng、huobidengzhengcebingquebaozhengcetongxiangfali，tuidongyixiliezhiyuefazhandezhidugaigequdetupo，zhongguojingjimingnianshixian5%zuoyoudezengsurengshidagailvshijian。

会议深化了对经济工作的规律性认识，tichu“bixutongchouhaopeiyuxindongnenghegengxinjiudongnengdeguanxi，yindizhiyifazhanxinzhishengchanli。……bixutongchouhaotishengzhilianghezuodazongliangdeguanxi，hangshizhongguoshixiandaihuadewuzhijichu。”womenrenwei，jingjizhuanxinghegaozhiliangfazhanshiyigezhangqideguocheng，bukenengyicuerjiu，yinciyaowentuodituijinxinjiudongnengzhuanhuan，jianchixianlihoupo，yaorenshidaojiudongneng、zuodazongliangduiyuwendinghongguanjingjizengzhangdezhongyaozuoyong，xindongnengdefazhanhetishengzhiliangyaoyihongguanjingjiwendinghejiuyeshouruwendingweiqianti，pinghenghaosuduyuzhiliang，rengyaoyaofazhanjingjizuoweiyingdaoli。

二、政策目标新增“居民收入增长”，政策基调“更加积极有为”，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性

对于明年的宏观调控目标，会议在传统的四大目标（经济增长、充分就业、物价稳定、国际收支平衡）的基础上，额外强调了“促进居民收入增长”，tixianlezhongyangduiyuzengqiangrenminqunzhonghuodegandezhongshi。huiyizhichu：“mingnianyaobaochijingjiwendingzengzhang，baochijiuye、wujiazongtiwending，baochiguojishouzhijibenpingheng，cujinjuminshouruzengzhanghejingjizengzhangtongbu”。

政策总基调“更加积极有为”，财政政策从“积极”到“更加积极”，货币政策从“稳健”到“适度宽松”，从“着力扩大国内需求”到“全方位扩大国内需求”，充分体现了中央对于推动经济持续回升向好、提振市场信心和预期的决心。

宏观调控力度更大、更具针对性和前瞻性、更强调效果，这既是过去宏观调控的成功经验，更是基于对当前国内外宏观形势的科学判断做出的部署。dangqianhongguanjingjimianlinneibuzongxuqiubuzuhewaibuquanqiujingjipiruan、meiguoduihuajiazhengguanshuidengyali，feichangzhishidangyoufeichangzhiju、huayaliweidongli。nizhouqidiaojiejiangjiuqianzhanxing，zouzaiyuqiqianmian，youliyuwendingyuqi、wendingzongxuqiujinerhangshijingjihuishengxianghaodejichu。huiyitichu，“mingnianyaojianchiwenzhongqiujin、yijincuwen，shouzhengchuangxin、xianlihoupo，xitongjicheng、xietongpeihe，chongshiwanshanzhengcegongjuxiang，tigaohongguandiaokongdeqianzhanxing、zhenduixing、youxiaoxing”“bawozhengcequxiang，jiangqiushijilidu，gexianggongzuonengzaozezao、zhuajinzhuashi，baozhengzugoulidu；qianghuaxitongsiwei，zhuzhonggeleizhengcehegaigekaifangjucuodexiediaopeihe，fangdazhengcexiaoying”。

三、统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，全方位扩大国内需求，综合整治“内卷式”竞争

会议强调要“统筹好总供给和总需求的关系”：一方面，“大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求”；另一方面，“综合整治‘内卷式’竞争，规范地方政府和企业行为”。

dangqianzhongguojingjizengsuchuxian“lianggepianli”：yishimingyizengsudiyushijizengsu，yushijuminshouruhecaifuzengzhisudupianman；ershishijizengsudiyuqianzaizengsu，yushijiuyerengmianlinjiegouxingyali，weiguanzhutihuodegandetigaoxiangduizhihou。zhijieyuanyinshigongxushiheng、wujiadimi，genbenyuanyinshiguoneiyouxiaoxuqiubuzu，yijihongguanzongxuqiubuzuyinfadeweiguanzhuti“neijuanshi”jingzheng，youbiyaocaiquyixiliezhengcehegaigejucuotuidongmingyizengsuhuiguishijizengsu、shijizengsuhuiguiqianzaizengsu。

其一，提振消费不能仅靠刺激，还要推动改革、完善机制。xiaofeiconggenbenshangqujueyusangefangmian：xiaofeinengli（shouru）、xiaofeiyiyuan（yiliaoyanglaojiaoyudengshebaotixidewanshanchengdu）yijigongjideshipeixing。ruguozheixiegenbenwentibujiejue，xiaofeihennandafuzengjia。xiaofeishijingjifazhandemude，erbushigongju，jingjifazhanshiweilemanzujumingenghaodexiaofei，erbushirangxiaofeichengweigongju。huiyitichu“shishitizhenxiaofeizhuanxiangxingdong，tuidongzhongdishouruquntizengshoujianfu，tishengxiaofeinengli、yiyuanhecengji。shidangtigaotuixiurenyuanjibenyanglaojin，tigaochengxiangjuminjichuyanglaojin，tigaochengxiangjuminyibaocaizhengbuzhubiaozhun。jialikuoweishishi‘liangxin’zhengce，chuangxinduoyuanhuaxiaofeichangjing，kuodafuwuxiaofei，cujinwenhualvyouyefazhan。jijifazhanshoufajingji、bingxuejingji、yinfajingji。”

其二，要避免投资和消费二元对立，投资消费是并重的，关键是两者的比例关系以及支持投资和消费的领域，不是要不要，而是投什么。touziyouqishijijiantouzihaimianlinzongliangbuzu、quyubujun、jiegoushang“kandejiandejijianduo、kanbujiandejijianshao”dewenti，rengyoukongjian。tongguozhengfutouzishiduchaoqiantuijinjichusheshijiansheheyouxuwanshangonggongfuwutixi，youliyugaishanxiaofeihuanjing、shutongxiaofeidudian，tishengjumindexiaofeiyiyuanhexiaofeinengli，jifaxiaofeiqianli。ciwai，haiyinggenghaofahuizhengfutouzijijindedaidongyindaozuoyong，jinnianlai，zhongyangcengmiantongguoguojiajichengdianluchanyetouzijijin、guojiazhizaoyezhuanxingshengjijijindengdaidongshehuiziben，youlizhichileguojiazhongdazhanlveshishi。huiyitichu“jiaqiangzishangerxiazuzhixiediao，gengdaliduzhichi‘liangzhong’xiangmu。shiduzengjiazhongyangyusuanneitouzi。jiaqiangcaizhengyujinrongdepeihe，yizhengfutouziyouxiaodaidongshehuitouzi。jizaomouhua‘shiwuwu’zhongdaxiangmu。dalishishichengshigengxin。shishijiangdiquanshehuiwuliuchengbenzhuanxiangxingdong。”

其三，综合整治“内卷式”竞争，改善企业盈利能力。yishitigaojishubiaozhun，yankongxinzengchanneng。jianchibiaozhunyinling、youxutisheng，tigaoshengchan、jishu、anquan、nenghao、huanbao、zhiliangdengguojiabiaozhunhexingyebiaozhunshuiping，yangekongzhixinzengchanneng，jiakuaitaotailuohouchanneng，cujinchannengjiegouyouhua。ershizhichixingyebinggouzhongzu，changtongshichangtuichujizhi。jianchishichangweizhu、zhengfuyindao，zhichilongtouqiyeduiwentiqiyebinggouzhongzu，tigaoxingyejizhongdu，cujinguimohua、jiyuehuajingying，gaishangongqiuguanxi，fangzhineijuanshijingzheng。sanshiguifanguanlidifangzhengfudezhaoshangyinzizhengce，jianliquanguotongyidashichang。youhuadifangguanyuanzhengjikaohe、zhuanbiandifangzhengfuzhineng，fangzhigedizaizhaoshangyinzizhongjinxingzhengcede“zhudijingzheng”，bimiandicengcizhongfujianshe；dapodifangbaohuheshichangfenge，cujinshangpinyaosuziyuanzaigengdafanweineishunchangliudong，xingchenggaoxiaoguifan、gongpingjingzhengdeguoneitongyishichang。

四、财政政策更加积极，赤字率大概率突破3%，具有三重效果；财税体制改革将有明显进展

huiyimingquetichu：“yaoshishigengjiajijidecaizhengzhengce。tigaocaizhengchizilv，quebaocaizhengzhengcechixuyongli、gengjiajili。jiadacaizhengzhichuqiangdu，jiaqiangzhongdianlingyubaozhang。zengjiafaxingchaozhangqitebieguozhai，chixuzhichi‘liangzhong’xiangmuhe‘liangxin’zhengceshishi。zengjiadifangzhengfuzhuanxiangzhaiquanfaxingshiyong，kuodatouxianglingyuheyongzuoxiangmuzibenjinfanwei。youhuacaizhengzhichujiegou，tigaozijinshiyongxiaoyi，gengjiazhuzhonghuiminsheng、cuxiaofei、zenghoujing，doulaojiceng‘sanbao’dixian。”tongshizaituidongbiaozhixinggaigejucuoluodijianxiaobufentichule“tongchoutuijincaishuitizhigaige，zengjiadifangzizhucaili”，zheiyiweizhecaizhengzhengcehecaishuitizhigaigejiangzaimingnianyigengdalidutuidongjingjihuishengxianghao。

1、财政政策延续“积极”的总基调，体现了政策的稳定性和连续性，但又强调“更加”积极，zhuyaotixianzaichizilvtigao、zhuanxiangzhaihechaozhangqitebieguozhaiguimotigao，jiangmingxianzengjiacaizhengzhichuguimo，tigaocaizhengzhichuzengsu，guangyichizilvdagailvgaoyu2024nian。2024nianchiziguimo4.06wanyi、zhuanxiangzhai3.9wanyi、chaozhangqitebieguozhai1wanyi、zengfaguozhai1wanyi（2023nianfaxingdanzhuyaoshiyongzai2024nian），heji9.96wanyi，xiangdangyugdpde7.6%，2025nianchizizhaiwuguimoyujichaoguo10wanyi，guangyichizilvyoukenengjiejin10%，jitixianlezhengcedezhudongzuoweihejijidandang。jijidecaizhengzhengcezaidangqiankeyifahuiduozhongzuoyong：yishiyibiyaodezhichulidukuodazongxuqiu，yineixutizhenduichongwaibudebuquedingxing；ershiyouhuagongjijiegou，cujinxinzhishengchanlifazhan，cujinxinjiudongnengzhuanhuan；sanshiwendingyuqi，dangqiangefangduicaizhengzhengcefaliqidaijiaogao，caizhengfahuichaochangguidenizhouqidiaojienenggougenghaowenyuqi；sishifangfanhuajiebaokuofangdichanhejinrongzaineidejingjishehuifengxian，genghaodizhichifangdichanbaojiaolou、shouchudengcujinfangdichanzhidiehuiwen。

2、狭义赤字率大概率突破3%，赤字率的提高有特殊意义，可实现三重功效，体现出政策非常实事求是，因时因势顺势而为，财政理念有明显突破。一是赤字率提高意味着赤字规模进一步提高，有利于扩大支出力度，强化财政的逆周期调节能力，更好地防风险、惠民生、稳增长。二是赤字率与其他财政工具不同，公众对赤字率及其变化的关注度非常高，而且长期形成了“突破3%就是积极的，低于3%就不够积极”的认识，因此财政政策要将有限的子弹用于稳预期，同样的财政刺激规模，应该尽可能体现在赤字率上。赤字率更能传递政策意图，具有较强的政策信号意义；提高赤字率释放中央稳经济的坚定决心，有利于稳定预期。qisanshichiziguimozhongdagailvrengshizhongyangguozhaiweizhu，tongguozhuanyizhifudexingshinenggougenghaodibaozhangjicengcailiwending，zengjiadifangcailidekezhipeichengdu，youliyudifangzuohao“sanbao”gongzuo。

3、优化财政支出结构有利于提高财政支出的效率和效果，也是近年来一以贯之的做法。huiyitichu“youhuacaizhengzhichujiegou，tigaozijinshiyongxiaoyi，gengjiazhuzhonghuiminsheng、cuxiaofei、zenghoujing，doulaojiceng‘sanbao’dixian”，yu“shidangtigaotuixiurenyuanjibenyanglaojin，tigaochengxiangjuminjichuyanglaojin，tigaochengxiangjuminyibaocaizhengbuzhubiaozhun”xianghuhuying。jinnianlai，woguochixuyouhuacaizhengzhichujiegou，zhuyaotixianweicongjianshecaizhengzhubuzhuanxiangjiansheyuminshengbingzhong、minshengzhichuzhanbichixutigao，zheibujinshifazhanjieduanbianhuadeyaoqiu，yeshimanzurenminmeihaoshenghuoxuyaodeyaoqiu，haishijingjijinyibufazhandeyaoqiu。bansuiwoguojingjifazhanshuipingzhubutigao、chengzhenhuajinchengjinruhoubanduanyijirenkoulaolinghuajinchengjiakuai，jumindexuqiucongshengcunxingxiaofeizhubujinrudaofazhanxingxiaofei，youqishiyiliaojiaoyuyanglaoxuqiushangsheng，caizhengquzhiyuminyongzhiyumin，biranyeyaotigaoxiangguanzhichubizhong。2023nianyibangonggongyusuanzhongyongyuyiliao、jiaoyu、shebaojiuye、zhufangbaozhangzhichuzhanbiwei40.7%，jiao2013nianshangsheng5.5gebaifendian。tongshi，dangqianxiaofeibuzudezhongyaoyuanyinshijuminxiaofeiyiyuanbuzu，yuanyuyiliaodenghouguzhiyou，yincicongtuidongjingjijiegoucongtouzizhuanxiangxiaofeiyijiwendinghongguanjingjidejiaodu，yeyoubiyaoyouhuacaizhengzhichujiegou。

4、要充分利用化债腾出的时间窗口，构建债务管理的长效机制与深化财税体制改革。yishicongshenhuacaishuitizhigaigekan，cilungaigeduanqiyaozengjiadifangzizhucaili，danshiconggenbenshangkangaigedehexinshishangyishiquanhezhichuzerenzhizhongyangzhengfu，bimiandifangzhengfuchengdanguoduodezhichuzeren，congerjianshaoyinxingzhaiwudejuzhaidongji。sanshinianqiandefenshuizhigaigejiejueleshouruduanzhongyangcaizhengshouruzhanbiguodi、zhongyanghongguandiaokongnenglibuzudewenti，danzhuyaomaodunhelishiyinsudaozhiweinengjiejueshiquanhuafenwenti。dangqiancailiduandewentirenghenzhongyao、jixujiejue，yaojijituidongzengjiadifangzizhucaili；danshizaimuqianquanguocaizhengshouruquanbujidaodifangzhengfuhaibunengmanzuzhichudebeijingxia，zhichuduandegaigeyeyoubiyaochengweibenlungaigetuijindezhongdian。“shangyishiquanhezhichuzeren”shizhibenzhice，fouze“difangzhichuzerenduo-difangcaizhengkunnan-zhongyangjiadazhuanyizhifu-caizhengzijinshiyongxiaolvdihenixiangjili”dexunhuannanyidapo。biru，yanglaobaoxian、huanjingbaohu、shipinyaopinjianduguanlidengshiquankeyishangyijizhongyangzhengfulaichengdan。

二是从构建债务管理长效机制上，有必要在四本经常性预算之外，研究建立债务预算和资本预算，与政府资产负债表和综合财务报告衔接。dangqianwoguozhengfuzhaiwuguanlizhuyaoshiyuehexianeguanli，shangweibianzhihangaiguimo、jiegou、haibenfuxijihua、touxiangdenggengxiangxidezhaiwuyusuan，zhaiwuyueshulibuzu，youbiyaojianliqizhaiwuyusuanhezibenyusuan。zibenyusuanjizhenduizhengfugudingzichantouzidengnenggouxingchenggonggonggudingzichandecaizhengzhichuhuodongbianzhideyusuan；zhaiwuyusuanshiduizhengfuzhaiwuguimo、jiegou、haibenfuxijihuadengjinxingxiangxiguihuadeyusuan，shixianxingzhaiwuxianeguanlideshengjiban。

5、从提高2025年财政政策效率效果的角度，还要关注五个方面的问题。一是地方债务风险防范化解取得阶段性进展后，要高度关注化债之后的地方财政形势，ruguofangdichanrengchuyudiaozhengzhuanxingqi，shuishouhetudichurangshoururengranshoudaoyingxiang，difangzhengfudehaibenfuxihesanbaoyaliyijituoqianzhangkuandengwentirengyaoyinqigaoduguanzhu。

二是财政政策有必要从盯住赤字率到支出增速，从关注收支平衡到财政可持续性，年内有必要根据经济形势、财政收入和专项债发行使用情况及时追加预算，tigaozhichuzengsu，genghaodifahuicaizhengnizhouqidiaojiedegongneng。ruguo2025niancaizhengshouruzaidudiyuyuqi、zhuanxiangzhaifaxingshiyongjindupianmanyizhiyuyingxiangdaocaizhengzhichuzengsutigao，yingxiangcaizhengzhengcenizhouqidiaojiedenengli，youbiyaoguoduanzhuijiayusuan。dongzuoyaokuai，yaozouqianshichangyuqiqianmian。

三是改革专项债制度，baokuoduanqifangkuanzhuanxiangzhaideshiyongfanwei、cong“eduzhaoxiangmu”gaiwei“xiangmudingedu”、edufenpeixiangzhaiwufudanqinghechanyejichuhaoderenkouliurudiquqingxie，zhangqikanzhuanxiangzhaiyaohuiguibenyuan、jiangbufenzhuanxiangzhaixinzengedudiaozhengweiyibanzhai。weitigaozhuanxiangzhaidezhichujindubingjiangdifengxian，youbiyaocong“xiandingeduzaizhaoxiangmu”biancheng“genjuxiangmuchubeiqingkuangdingedu”，bimianyouedudanzhichubuchuqu；tongshifenpeishangyaoxiangzhaiwufudanqing、chanyejichuhaoherenkouliurudiquqingxie。dancongzhangqikan，bansuiyouzhixiangmuzhubujianshao，zhuanxiangzhaiyaohuiguibenyuan、shiyongfanweibunengwuxianzhikuoda；meiyouxiangmushouyideyaotongguoguozhaihedifangyibanzhaijiejue，zhuanxiangzhaidexinzengeduyeyoubiyaosuizhidiaozheng，congertigaoyibanzhaiedu、shidukongzhizhuanxiangzhaiedu（buhanmeinianxinzeng8000yiyongyuhuazhaidezhuanxiangzhai）。

四是加大对特定群体的补助和支持，以提高其抗风险能力并提振消费。baokuoduishiyedaxueshengdebuzhu、duinongcunlaorenquntidebutie、duiyuerhaiyishangjiatingdetedingbutiedeng，gefangduishangshuquntidebuzhuyoujiaoqiangdegongshi。

五是从中央政府层面探索成立“房地产稳定基金”，xianqiguimokezai2wanyizuoyou，zhuanxiangyongyubaojiaofang、shouchucunliangfang、shougoufangqicunliangtudidenggongzuo，baozhangminsheng、huanjiefangqiliudongxingyali；yindaoguligaopinzhizhuzhaichanpinkaifa，yiyouzhigongjimanzujuminhelixuqiu。1—10yuefenfangdichanxiaoshoutongbiwei-15.8%，qizhongxianfangxiaoshoutongbiwei18.8%，qifangxiaoshoutongbiwei-25.3%，liangzhexiangcha44.1gebaifendian，jifangdichanxiaoshouzhuyaoshiqifangxiaoshoutuolei。zheifanyingchujuminbushimeiyouxuqiu，ershiduifangdichanqiyefengxianrengyouyilv，yinci“baojiaolou”baogongjimouzhongyiyishangjiushicuxuqiu。danshidangqiandifangzhengfubaogongjinandujiaoda，keyiyanjiutansuozhongyangzhengfucengmianxuanbuchengliyigejijin，youliyuwendingjuminduifangdichandexinxin。

五、货币政策适度宽松，适时降准降息，加强金融稳定

huiyitichu：“shishishidukuansongdehuobizhengce”“shishijiangzhunjiangxi”“tansuotuozhanzhongyangyinxinghongguanshenshenyujinrongwendinggongneng”。yu2023nian“wenjiandehuobizhengceyaolinghuoshidu、jingzhunyouxiao”debiaoshuxiangbi，zhengtijidiaogengjiajiji。

事实上，今年9月24日金融“新政”实施以来，我国宏观经济政策已出现了明显的边际转变，congguoqu“gengjiazhongshizhangqizhiligaige、duanqizhengceyingduixiangduibaoshou”，zhuanbianwei“duanqizhengceyingduihehezhangqizhiligaigebingzhong”，duanqizhengceyingduibiandegengjiaguoduan，nizhouqidiaojielidubuduanjiada。tixianzaihuobizhengcecengmian，jiushichixujiangzhunjiangxi，zengjiahuobigongyingliangdeng。yuji2025nian，huobizhengcelidujiangjinyibujiada。

一是总量政策更宽松，进一步降准降息。guoqu30nianzhong，“shidukuansong”zheiyibiaoshujinchuxianzai2008-2010nianjian，qijianmianduiguojijinrongweiji，woguoyangxingduocijiangzhunjiangxi。kaolvdaomuqianwujiashuipingdimi，suiranmingyililvchuzaijiaodishuiping，danshijililvrengranpiangao，weilairengxuyaojiangdishijirongzichengben。yuji2025nianquannianjiangfenbiejiangzhun、jiangxi0.5gebaifendian；jiezoushanghuogengjiakaoqian，yiyingduitelangpu1yueshangtaihoukenengchanshengdeguanshuichongji。

二是货币政策工具箱更加充实，货币政策调控方式逐步向价格型转变，同时与财政的配合也更加紧密。jinnianyilai，yangxingxianhoukaiqiguozhaimaimai、maiduanshihuigou、“zhengquan、jijin、baoxiangongsihuhuanbianli（sfisf）”dengzhengcegongju。yifangmian，shiweiletigaohuobizhengcechuandaoxiaolv，tuidonghuobizhengcekuangjiazhubuzhuanxing，congshuliangxingzhuanxiangjiagexing。lingyifangmian，yeshiweilejijipeihecaizhengzhengce，fahuixietongxiaoying。

yuji2025nianhuobizhengcegongjuxiangrenghuijinyibuchongshiwanshan：yifangmian，diaozhengyouhuabaozhangxingzhufangzaidaikuan，“zhengquan、jijin、baoxiangongsihuhuanbianli”，gupiaohuigouzengchizaidaikuandengzhengcegongju，jiangqiluodaoshichu、qudeshixiao。lingyifangmian，huojiangshidangshouzhaililvzoulangdekuandu，yindaohuobishichanglilvweiraozhengcelilvzhongshupingwenyunxing。

三是“探索拓展中央银行宏观审慎与金融稳定功能”，货币政策工具可能被赋予更多“金融稳定”的要求，zheiyizhuanbianhuoduiyuzichandingjiafanshichanshengyingxiang。2008nianyiqianyangxingzhuyaomubiaoshi“bizhiwending”，2008nianhougeguoyangxingpubianjiang“jinrongwending”narumubiaotixi。xiangyingdi，huobizhengcegongjuyekaishibeifuyuyiding“jinrongwending”deyaoqiu。ruguozhaimaimaibenshenshitoufangliudongxingdegongju，danyebeiyonglaidadaowendingzhaiquanshichangjiagedemude。jinnian，woguoyangxingbuduantishizhangzhaishouyilvfengxian，kaiqiguozhaijieru、guozhaimaimaideng，jiushihuobizhengcegongjujianjushuangzhongmubiaodedianxingfanying。zaizheiyitansuoguochengzhong，xuyaogaoduguanzhugeleigongjuduiyuzichandingjiafanshideyingxiang。rumaiduanshinihuigou，youyuduanqineizhaiquansuoyouquanzhuanyijileyangxing，zengjiayangxingmaichuguozhaidechouma，congerduizhangqililvchanshenggengqiangdeyueshu。

六、深化资本市场投融资综合改革，打通中长期资金入市卡点堵点

huiyiqiangdiao“wenzhuloushigushi”，bingyaoqiu“shenhuazibenshichangtourongzizonghegaige，datongzhongzhangqizijinrushikadiandudian，zengqiangzibenshichangzhidudebaorongxing、shiyingxing”。jinnianyilai，dingcengshejigaoduguanzhuzibenshichanggaigejincheng，4yuezhengzhijuhuiyitichu“duocuobingjucujinzibenshichangjiankangfazhan”，7yuetichu“tishengzibenshichangneizaiwendingxing”，9yuetichu“tizhenzibenshichang”，12yuegengmingque“wenzhuloushigushi”；guanyuzibenshichangdezhengcejucuomijifabu，baokuochutaixin“guojiutiao”、wanshanzibenshichang“1+n”zhengcetixideng。2025nian，zibenshichanggaigerengshiwendingshehuiyuqi、xiufujuminzichanfuzhaibiaodezhongyaozhuashou，jutiyouyixiasantiaogaigezhuxianxuyaotebieguanzhu。

一是并购重组市场改革是重中之重。yifangmian，binggouzhongzushizhudongtuishizuizhuyaodexingshi，dalituijinbinggouzhongzushitigaoshichangchuqinglidu，tishengcunliangshangshigongsizhengtizhiliangdeguanjian。shishishangwoguoshangshigongsituishishuliangpianshao，zhuyaoshizhudongtuishishuliangpianshao。lingyifangmian，binggouzhongzushichanyejingzhengdegaojiexingshi，tongguobinggounenggoukuaisuchuqingluohouchanneng，tishengtoubuqiyejingzhengli，tigaochanyelianzhenghelidu，shixianchanyeshengji。yinci，binggouzhongzugaigebujinjinshizibenshichangzhidujianshedeyihuan，gengduixiandaihuachanyetixijiansheyouzhezhiguanzhongyaodeyingxiang。mingnianxuguanzhuzhanlvexingxinxingchanye、weilaichanyedengfangxiangdebinggouzhongzu，ruxinnengyuanqiche、bandaotichanyejiyubulianqianglianhetishengguanjianjishushuipingdebinggou。

二是长期资金入市进度加快，为市场带来更多“活水”。genjuwomencesuan，2023nianzhangqizijinzhongrushijiaoweijijideshebaojijin，chiyouquanyileizichanzhanzongzichandebiliwei36.9%（hanzhijieguquantouzi），ernuoweizhengfuquanqiuyanglaojijin、xinxilanchaojinianjinjijinheaodaliyaweilaijijinquanyitouzibilida69.8%、57.0%he47.1%。jibenyanglaojin、qiyenianjin、baoxianzijindengchigubiligengdi，rushikongjianjiaoda。weilai，huojinyibuyouhuazhangqizijintouzijianguanmoshi（fangsongbilishangxian），youhuabaoxianzijinchangzhainengliyueshuzhibiao，kuodayanglaojintouzifanwei。

三是基金行业改革提速。yifangmian，jijinfeilvhuojinyibuyajiang；lingyifangmian，etfdengzhishutouzichanpinshuliangjiangbuduanzengjia，zhishuxingbeidongjijinjiangyinglaizhongdafazhanjiyu。

七、加快房地产市场止跌回稳，构建房地产发展新模式

会议明确提出“稳住楼市股市”的目标，并做出具体部署，“chixuyonglituidongfangdichanshichangzhidiehuiwen，jialishishichengzhongcunheweijiufanggaizao，chongfenshifanggangxinghegaishanxingzhufangxuqiuqianli。helikongzhixinzengfangdichanyongdigongying，panhuocunliangyongdiheshangbanyongfang，tuijinchuzhicunliangshangpinfanggongzuo。tuidonggoujianfangdichanfazhanxinmoshi，youxudajianxiangguanjichuxingzhidu。”

未来房地产政策还可从以下三方面加以完善优化：

一是加快解除非必要的限制性措施，让商品房回归市场化配置。dangqianquanguojinshengbeijing、shanghai、shenzhendengshaoshuchengshirengzaizhixingxiangouzhengce，youbiyaojinyibufangsong。liru，fangkaijiaoquxiangou、dahuxingxiangou、shangzhuxiangou，jiangdifeibendihujigoufangshebaonianxian，zengjiaduohaijiatinggoufangzhibiaodeng。

二是加快推进保交房、收储存量房、收购房企存量土地等工作，保障民生、缓解房企流动性压力。jianyizengfaguozhai，tansuozhongyangcengmianchengli“fangdichanwendingjijin”，yuji2-3wanyi，zhuanxiangyongyubaojiaofang、shouchudenggongzuo，yijiandingbuyidejuexinbingshifangqiangliedexinhaotuidongfangdichanshichangzhidiehuiwen。

三是引导鼓励高品质住宅产品开发，以优质供给满足居民合理需求。jianyigenjubutongchengshidequhuazhouqiyijibutongdiduanzhuzhaishouhuanyingchengdu，jianghexindiduandebufenshangyeyongdixiugaiweizhuzhaiyongdi，manzujuminduihaodiduan、gaopinzhishangpinfangdexuqiu；fangkaijiaoqugongdi1.0rongjilvxianzhi，youhuajiakongceng、yangtaidengkongjianyijishequgonggongpeitaosheshidezhibiaojisuanguize；guliyouzhiyoujia，buzaishishixinjianshangpinzhufangxiaoshoujiagezhidaodeng。

八、大力培育未来产业，完善政策支持体系

huiyitichu“yikejichuangxinyinlingxinzhishengchanlifazhan，jianshexiandaihuachanyetixi”“kaizhan‘rengongzhineng+’xingdong，peiyuweilaichanye”。guoquwunian，zhongyangjingjigongzuohuiyijunhuitijikejichuangxinhechanyefazhan，jinnianduiyukejichuangxindeguanzhurengranjiaogao，weilaixuzhongdianguanzhuyixiajidian：

一是未来产业政策体系将加速完善。dangdeershijiesanzhongquanhuitichu，“jiaqiangxinlingyuxinsaidaozhidugongji，jianliweilaichanyetouruzengzhangjizhi”，muqiangediquyijingkaizhanlezhuduoxianxingtansuo。rushanghaiweiraoweilaijiankang、weilaixinpian、weilaizhineng、weilainengyuandenglingyuyishelizhangjiang、linganghedalinghaowan3geweilaichanyexiandaoqu。beijing、guangdongdengduogeshengshiyeyichutaiweilaichanyexiangguanzhengcewenjian，bingjianliweilaichanyefazhanxiandaoqu。keyishuo，weilaichanyeyimingquejinru“zhengcedaoruqi”，xiayibuxuyaoyouhuazhengcetixi，tebieyaozaichanyelianqianduanhehouduanzheli。qianduan，yaotuidongdianfuxingchuangxin，buqikejichengguozhuanhuaboruohuanjie。houduan，yaokaituojishuhechanpinyingyongchangjing，yikuodaxuqiudaidongchanyefazhan。ruzaitedingquyuneicaiyongzhengfucaigou、xiaofeibutiedengfangshichixushifangchangjingziyuan。

二是要素保障力度将加大，进一步促进创业投资高质量发展。huiyitichu：“jianquanduocengcijinrongfuwutixi，zhuangdanaixinziben，gengdaliduxiyinshehuizibencanyuchuangyetouzi，tidupeiyuchuangxinxingqiye”。mingnian，zhongyangqiyechuangtoujijinhuojinyibutigaochuzibili，luodizhangqijixiaokaohejizhi，mingquejinzhimianzerongcuotiaojian。

三是“制定全国统一大市场建设指引”，规范不当市场竞争和市场干预行为。jinnian6yue，guowuyuanfabu《gongpingjingzhengshenchatiaoli》，mingquezhengfubumenzaichutaizhengcezhiqian，douyaojingguoyangedegongpingjingzhengshenchahepinggu，jinzhichayihuashuishouyouhui、xuanzexingcaizhengjianglideng。zheiduiyupochushichangfenge，cujinyaosuziyouliudongzhiguanzhongyao。2025nian，quanguotongyidashichangjiansherengjiangzongshentuijin，zhiding“quanguotongyidashichangjianshezhiyin”wuyihuijiangdingcengyaoqiuluodegengshigengxi，mingquenaxiekeyizuo，naxiebunengzuo；“youweizhengfu”he“youxiaoshichang”yejiangcongzhimianyaoqiuyibubuzhaojinxianshi。

九、加强预期管理，激发微观主体活力

huiyijiang“wendingyuqi、jifahuoli”lieweimingnianjingjigongzuozhongdianzhiyi，bingzaigongzuobushuzhongzaiciqiangdiao“jiaqiangyuqiguanli，xietongtuijinzhengceshishiheyuqiyindao，tishengzhengceyindaoli、yingxiangli”。weiguanzhutiyuqihexinxinbuwenshiciqiantuoleijingjihuishengxianghaodezhongyaoyinsu，suizhe9yuexiaxunyilaiyixiliezengliangzhengcedeshishi，weiguanzhutiyuqihexinxinmingxiantisheng，gushi、fangdichanshichanghuoyuedushangsheng，jingjijiakuaihuifu。jiaqiangyuqiguanli，kecongyixiasanfangmianzheshou：

第一，提高宏观政策透明度，加强市场沟通。lirudangqianguoneiwujiarengjiaodimi，zhongguorenminyinxingsuirantichu“bacujinwujiahelihuishengzuoweibawohuobizhengcedezhongyaokaoliang”，dankeyijinyibushezhimingquedetongzhangmubiao，jianggongzhongdezhongzhangqitongzhangyuqimaodingzaihelishuiping，congerjiakuaiwujiahuisheng。haiyingqianghuazhengfubumenyushichangdegoutong，jishichengqingyixiewudujiduizhengcedewaiqulijie。

第二，采取更大力度甚至超预期的举措稳定经济，扭转低迷预期。liruhuiyitichu“shishigengjiajijidecaizhengzhengce，tigaocaizhengchizilv”，jianyimingnianchizilvzai3.5%yishangnaizhi4.0%。chizilvshi3.0%，haishi3.5%he4.0%，chizidejueduiguimoxiangchabuda，1gebaifendianchajuzai1.3-1.4wanyi，danxinhaoyiyihewendingyuqideyiyiquexiangchashenyuan。

第三，树立典型，重塑民营企业家信心。yaotizhenminyingqiyejiayuqihexinxin，xuyaoximulixin、qianjinmaimagu，jianyituichuzhengfanliangfangmiandezhengshangguanxianli，qingluanxiang、shudianxing，youliyugefangchuanbohexuexi，weiminyingjingjifazhanchuangzaolianghaohuanjing，gengzhongyaodeshibaochizhengcedewendingxinglianxuxingheluoshifazhi。

（作者罗志恒，系粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长；马家进、原野，系粤开证券宏观分析师。文章仅代表作者观点。）