文｜秋水笔弹

yonghuichaoshiyijinglalejigezhangtingban，ruguonenggouyixianzaidegujiataoxian，yeguofuhaowuyiwenyijingpanmanboman。

danshihenyihan，zheizheigeshihoujiaoyihaizaijinxingdangzhong，erqieyeguofudagailvyebushilaichaogude。

panggaichengbaihaihennanshuo，shuigezhixiangjiujigeguanjianxingwenti，yigefangcaibaoshujuweijichu，zaishangyanshang，zheibijiaoyishifouzhide？

yonghuichaoshizichanzhenshijiazhijihe？

mingchuangyoupindexianjinchengzhongqiang，nengfouchengshougefangmianchixujiazhongdezijinyali？

pangdonglai，yuyonghuichaoshiyijimingchuangyoupin，congliniandaomoshi，jianrongxingruhe，xietongdujihe？

一、从财报数据，看永辉超市资产的真实质量

zheijinian，yonghuichaoshishenxiankuisun，jingzichanbuduansuoshui，daoqianjitianpiludesanjiducaibao，qijingzichanyijingsuoshuidao57.95yiyuan。

9yue23ri，yonghuichaoshigonggaopilu，juncaiguojijiangjiepangongsigufen29.40%。juncaiguojideshikongfangshimingchuangyoupin，shangshujiaoyizongjinedadao62.7yiyuan。

zheiyiweizhe，budaobaifenzhisanshidegufen，mingchuangyoupinjiangyaofuchulegaoyuyonghuichaoshizhengtijingzichanjiangjin5yiyuandejiage。

erqieyonghuichaoshimuqianduanqineidaoqidefuzhai，yijingyuanyuanchaoguolezishenduanqihaizhainengli，sanjibaoxianshi，qiliudongzichan171yiyuan，danshiyinianneidaoqideliudongfuzhaigaoda226yiyuan，yinianneidehaizhainengliquekouyijingchaoguo55yiyuan，erqiezhengtifuzhailvyeyijinggaoda 87%。

zheiyiweizhemingchuangyoupinneidianshougoukuanxiang，zhigoutianbuyonghuichaoshiyinianneidehaizhaizijinquekou，danshi，zheixieqianbushijiyonghui，ershijishuaimaiyonghuichaoshiqiandagudongmende。

yucitongshi，yonghuichaoshidexianjinliuzhengzaijijuehua，jujianzhi36.86yiyuan，tongbijianshaochaoguo44%。

qizhonghaizhaijiushiqixianjinliuxunsuehuadezhuyaoyuanyin，yinweihaizhai，yonghuichaoshi，chouzihuodongxianjinliuqunianyujinniantongqifenbieliuchule69.82yiyuanyiji65.71yiyuan。

yejilianniankuisun，shiyonghuichaoshidexianjinliurubufuchudegenbenyuanyin。

yonghuichaoshi2021~2023niankoufeijinglirunkuisunyijingchaoguo83yiyuan。jinnianqiansanjiduyoukuisun6.9yiyuan。

congcaiwujiaodukan，mingchuangyoupinfuchuleyuangaoyuyonghuichaoshineizaijiazhidedaijia，dangranguminmenjiqingchaogufuchudejiagexianrangenggao。

jintianyonghuichaoshimeigugujiayijing6kuaiduo，danshimeigujingzichanzhiyou0.64。

suoyouzhangtingban，quankaojiucaimenpinjicuiruodexiangxianglizhichengzhe。

二、从财报数据看，名创优品现金承重能力，与重资产化压力

chuleyonghuidezhenshizichanjiazhizaixunsusuoshui，mingchuangyoupinzishenxianjinliuyebingbukuanyu，erqie，mingchuangyoupinzishenyemianlinzheneishengxingzengzhangnanti，yijibuduanxiangzhongzichanmoshiqingxiedeshangyemoshizhibian，zheixiedoujiangdaozhiqizhangqizijinyaligengweizhiming。

zheibijiaoyidejinewei62.7yiyuan，ermingchuangyoupincaibaoxianshi，jiezhi2024nian9yuedidexianjinyuewei62.84yiyuan。

zheiyiweizhezheibijiaoyi，zhijietaokonglemingchuangyoupindexianjinnengli。

bashoushenxiangleyinxing，zhinenghuanjiemingchuangyoupinduanqizijinyali，erqieyinxingzijindoushiyouchengbende。

gengzhongyaodeshi，mingchuangyoupinzishenyewukuozhangdezijinxuqiuqueyurijuzeng，rangqixianjinliujinyibuchengya。

shouxian，jintianmingchuangyoupindezengzhangzongtieryan，feichangyilaimendianguimodezengzhang，erfeidandianxiaoshouedezengzhang，zishenzijinyalichixujiada。

yucitongshi，mingchuangyoupinzhiyingmendianchuxianlebuchengbilidedafuzengzhang，dapoleguoqugengfangbiantengnuodeqingzichanmoshi，yejiazhonglezishenkuozhangdezijinyali。

mingchuangyoupinmendianshuliangquniansanjidu，tongbizengzhang819jia，shouru37.91yiyuan，tongbizengzhang36.7%。

qizhong，zhongguodemingchuangyoupinmendianpingjunmendianshuliangtongbizengzhang14.0%，qiepingjundandianshourutongbizengzhang23.8%，jitoptoydepingjunmendianshuliangtongbizengzhang16.5%，qiepingjundandianshourutongbizengzhang25.4%。

laizihaiwaishichangdeshouruwei12.95yiyuan，tongbizengzhang40.8%，haiwaimingchuangyoupinmendiandepingjunmendianshuliangtongbizengjia12.5%jipingjundandianshourutongbizengjia25.1%。

quniantongqigezhongyetaidedandianshourutongbizengzhangdouhaichaoguo20%，danshidaojinnian，haineiwaishichangmendiantongdianxiaoshoudoudiezhilegeweishu，qizhongzuiweihexindeguoneimingchuangyoupinmendiangengshichuxianlezhongdanweishudexiajiang。

2024nianqiansanjidumingchuangyoupinshouruwei122.81yiyuan，tongbizengzhang22.8%，zhuyaoshiyouyupingjunmendianshuliangtongbizengzhang18.5%，jitongdianxiaoshoudigeweishuzengzhang。

laizizhongguoneidideshouruzengzhang14.0%，qizhong(i)laizimingchuangyoupinzhongguoneidixianxiamendiandeshouruzengzhang11.8%，zhuyaoshiyinweipingjunmendianshuliangtongbizengzhang14.7%，ertongdianxiaoshoujiaoqunianshuipingxiajiangzhongdanweishu；jilaizitoptoydeshouruzengzhang42.5%，shiyinweitongdianxiaoshouzhongdanweishuzengzhangjipingjunmendianshuliangkuaisuzengzhang。

mianduichongmantiaozhandehongguanxiaofeihuanjing，mingchuangyoupinjijifazhano2oyewu，gaiyewutongbizengzhanglejin80%，yidingchengdushangbangzhumingchuangyoupinwenzhuletongdian。

zheiyiweizheruguobushixianshangyewudezengliang，xianxiatongdianxiaoshouxiahuafudushigengdade。

qiguoneimingchuangyoupinmendiandedandianxiaoshou、pingxiaoyijixiaolvdouzaixiahua，neishengxingzengzhangdonglimingxianbuzu。

yucitongshi，tongyangjiqixianjinliudailaichenzhongyalideshishangyemoshideqiaoranzhuanbian。

jinnianqiansanjidu，mingchuangyoupinzhiyingmendianxiangbiyiwangchuxianledafudezengzhang，haiwaizhiyingdiangengshibiquniantongqizengjiale220jia，yaozhidaodaoquniantongqihaizhiyou202jia，zengfuchaoguole108%，yucitongshi，qihaiwaidisanfangmendianzengfuzhiyou19%，bunengbushuo，qihaiwaishangyemoshizhengzaichuxianzhongdazhuanbian。

zheizhongshangyemoshiweimiaoqiexianzhudebianhua，yijingzhuanbianweimingchuangyoupinchenzhongdezijinyali。

qizulinfuzhai，congquniantongqide7.98yiyuan，jishengzhile16.09yiyuan，zengzhangchaoguoleyibei。

qiwuye、changfangjishebeiyecong7.69yiyuan，zengzhile12.77yiyuan。shiyongquanzichancong29yiyuan，zengzhangzhile38.43yiyuan。

zheizhongzijinyaliyeyijingtixiandaolegongsizhengtixianjinliudangzhong。qijiezhi2024nian9yuedidexianjinyue，xiangbiqunianniandiyijingjianshaole5yiyuan。

mingchuangyoupinzaizishenzijinyalichixujiadadeqingkuangxia，taokongxianjinliu，qutouziyijiabeifuzhechenzhongdelishibaofu、xianjinliushuaijiangengweijulie、fuzhaigaoqidelingshoushang，shifengxianfeichangdadedubo，shuoshixuanyazougangsi，bingbuweiguo。

三、胖东来与永辉超市、名创优品的格格不入

gengzhongyaodeshi，pangdonglaimoshi，congjiazhiguanqudong、liyifenpei、jujiaobentu、jizhifuwu，douyuyonghuichaoshiyijimingchuangyoupindeluxian，gegeburu。

daojintian，pangdonglaiyewuhaiyouyuyiyu，bingqieyuhenanxuchang、xinxiangbendishangyeshendubangding，pangdonglaichuangliyu1995nian，daojintianmendianbuguoququ13jia。

erchengliyu2001niandeyonghuichaoshizaidaguimobidiandeqingkuangxia，yiranzuoyong780jiamendian。

erhaizaiduomingkuangben，zaijinnianqiansanjidutongbixinzengleshangqianjiamendiandemingchuangyoupin，yijingzaihaineiwaizuoyong7186jiamendian。

yigeshibentuteselingshoulongtou，yongyoubentujigaoshentoulidetesegongyinglian，tongguobentuchangwangdexiaoshou、youzhidefuwuyijihuoyuedechuangxinnengli，jianliqilebentulingshoudedingjiaquan，jianlileshenhoudejingzhenghuchenghe。

yigeshiquanguoxingshenzhiquanqiuxingdebiaozhunhualingshoushang，xuyaodeshiquanguoxing、daguimo、gaozhouzhuandeshengcunnengli，benshenbukenengkaodanchunfuzhiyigebentulingshoushangdegongyinglian，shengcunfazhan。

yigeshipingguofengbidexitongshengtai，yigeshianzhuokaiyuanxitong，yigeyongyouwukebinidebentuhuayuquan，kefuzhixingcha，yigeyongyougengdaguimoshichangshengcunkongjian，kefuzhixingqiang。

wentizaiyuzheilianggexitongbubingbujianrong。congjiazhiguancengmian、dicengliyifenpei、yewumoshidaoyunyingmoshidoubujianrong。

diyi，shibentuhuayuquanguoxinglingshoudechongtu。

pangdonglaimoshi，benlaijiushifeichangqiangdadebentulongtou，zheishitadeyoushiyeshitadelieshi，cunzaimingxiandequyuxingkuozhangnanti。

pangdonglaidebentucaigoulianmeng、zhicaitixiyijiziyoudepinpaitixi，doushijianlizaizishengongyingnenglihuozhebentugongyingnenglizhishangde。

erqiehenanshizaizhongguoyeweishubuduodelaodonglidasheng、nongyedasheng，yeshichumuyedasheng，henannonglinmuyuyezongzhizhangqichuyuquanguodierwei，danshirenjungdpyuandiyuquanguoshuiping，2023nianhenanshengrenjungdpwei6wanyuan，biquanguorenjungdpdilejiangjin3wanyuan。

pangdonglaimoshibenshenyuqizhagendehenanbentuzujin、laodongli、shengxiancaigouchengbendilianshifenbukaide。zheiyeshipangdonglailijingershiniandoumeiyouzouchuhenandegengweigenbenxingdejingjixianshiyuanyin。

erqieguojianglongnandiditoushe，tazuiqiangdebentugongyinglianyoushi，shiyouqiquyubanjingde，zheishiwuliguilv，daolebiedequyu，zheizhongyoushijiurutongqiangnuzhimo。

likaihenancongnongyedaolaodonglidegongjiyoushi，yijipangdonglaiduonianjingyingjianlidebentugongyingliandingjiaquan，pangdonglaimoshiwucongtanqi。

zaishinianqian，pangdonglaijiuyijingweiqikuozhangmaiguodan。

2012nian，zaipangdonglaizhudongguantingqixiadianmianzhiqian，qijinzaixuchangjiukaishele30duojiamendian。jingguomendiandaguimoguanbi，zhihoushinianshijiandejinggengxizuo，judianshizuozhan，jianshoubentu，bugaokuozhang，neishengshizengzhang，rangpangdonglaizaijintianyipianaihaodelingshouye，chengweiyejiebiaogan。

2013nian，pangdonglai10yujiadian，dagai70duoyiyuandeyingshou。jiezhijinnian11yue26ri，yezhiyou 13 jiamendian，danshibenniandupangdonglaijituanleijixiaoshouyida146yiyuan，pangdonglaishidaiguangchangdianjinnianleijixiaoshoueda39yiyuan。

yucitongshi，mingchuangyoupinyiranweichi2024-2028nian5nianguihuamubiaoshimeinianquanqiujingzeng900-1100jiamendian，dao2028nianquanqiumendianshuliangjiao2023niandishuliangjiejinfanbeidadao4wanjia。

pangdonglaideneishengshizengzhang，yumingchuangyoupinbugudandianxiaoshouxiahuade、duomingkuangbendequanqiuhuakuozhang，congyikaishijiubuzaitongyigegushijubenzhinei。

dier，shifeishangshigongsiyushangshigongsidegenbenliyifenpeijizhidechongtu。

chuleyuangaoyubentupingjunshuipingdegongzi，cong2000nianqi，yudonglaikaishibazhuandeqiananbilifenjiyuangong，cong30%zengjiadao50%，dao2002nianzhangdaolelirunde80%doufenjiyuangong，zaihoulaijiushiyuefenyueduo，zheizhongfenpeizhiduyizhiyanxudaoxianzai。yudonglaishenzhizhiyan，“laobanmenruoshishebudenachu50%delirunfenjiyuangong，neijiubiedaopangdonglaixuexile，laileyexuebuhui！”

erzaisanjiducaibaodianhuahuiyidangzhong，mingchuangyoupinjituanqiangdiao，zaiweilaiyiduanshijian，yiranjianchimeinianjiangbudiyu50%dediaozhenghoujinglirunzuoweifenhong，dongtaihuigou，weigongsigudongdailaikeyuqidehuibao。

xiangbimingchuangyoupinjiangbaifenzhiwushilirunfenjitouzizhe，lingyibian，pangdonglaichangnianjiangbaifenzhibashiyishangdelirunfenjiyuangong，liangzhegenbenfangxiangdoushibeidaoerchide。

zheiwulunshimingchuangyoupin，haishiyonghuichaoshidouhennanxue，zheishiqishangshigongsideliyifenpeijizhisuojuedingde，zheijiuzhudingle。

shangshigongsi，yigudongliyiweigenbenqudongli，ergudongliyigengduojianliyuzengzhangdailaidegujiashangzhangyuqi，zheiyeshimingchuangyoupinyuyonghuiguoquduonianbuguxiaolv、duomingkuangbendegenbenyuanyin。

duiyuyouchongfenliyiqudongdeyuangongjijixing、zhurenwengjingshensuodailaidewuweibuzhidejizhifuwu，shitamennanyifuzhide，neimewulunxingshikeliduduomexi，tamenyiranzhinengxuedaopangdonglaidehuajiazi。

zheiyeshiweishenmepangdonglaiquanbukaifangzishenjingyan、zaishangchangchenliegongyingshanglianxifangshi、zaishangpinbiaomingchengbenlirunlv，shenzhibujichengbenjiangke、chuanbangdai，zhijinhaimeichuxiandiergepangdonglaidegenbenyuanyin。

meiyouliyideshendugongxiang，panggaizhishikongzhonglouge，wucongtanqi。

xiangpangdonglaixuexi，gaibianbulezheizhongzibenshichangdeshengcunfaze。

danshizheiyidian，yonghuichaoshidepanggaiyijingdaizhetianranqiezhimingdejuxian。

disan，yonghuichaoshidaoribenxiangyitengyanghuatangxuexiguo，yexiangdagudongniunaiguojiqingjiaoguo，quebugaituishi。

genjumingchuangyoupinduocibiaotai，tamenbingbuhuishendujieruyonghuichaoshiderichangguanli。meiyoukonggu，yezuobudaozheizhongchengdudeguanli。

yejiushishuo，panggaishenduyilaiyonghuichaoshiyuanlaiderencaitidui，congjintianyonghuichaoshidejiejiebaitui，yijicengjingtongyangdazhangqigudechaojiwuzhongzhuanxingbaijilaikan，qiguanlituanduikanchengpingyongwuneng。

yigepingyongdetuandui，zhudingdailaipingyongdeyeji。

disi，pangdonglaidejingyanyijingkaifangduonian，shenzhishoubashoujizhenggelingshoujiechuanbojingyanyijitigongrencai、gongyinglianzhichi，yejiushishuo，zheizhongpanggai，bingbushiyonghuichaoshidezhuanshuyoushi。

duiyuyonghuipanggaiguimo，yudonglaifeichangjinshen，zaijinnian6yue19rihuida“weishenmebukai200jiabaogaiyonghuichaoshi”dewentishi，yaotoubaishoushuo：“neibukeneng，haideyouqitadepinpai，gongtonglaifuwuzheigeshichang。”

erqie，guojidaelaishixiongxiong，woermahuixiashanmuzhongguodandianyeji，yupangdonglaibuxiangbozhong，erqiekefuzhixinggengqiang，bufenmendiandenianyingyeeyichaoguo29yiyuan，muqianzaizhongguoyikaishe51jia，kuozhangjihuarengzaichixu。

wulunshixiangduiyushanmuhaishiguoneidehema，zaishenduyilaiziyoupinpaidechayihuajingzhenglishang，yonghuichaoshidouhaowuyoushi。

lingwai，suiranyeguofuhualeyigekexuanxiaofei（mingchuangyoupin）+bixuanxiaofei（panggaiyonghui）deyewuxietongdabing，danshicongxiaofeiquntilaikan，yigeshizuoxueshengshengyi，yigeshijiazhangmaidan，xiaofeiquntijihumeiyouzhongdiexingkeyan，suoweixietongxiaoguo，kexiangerzhi。

muqianpanggaihaimeiyouzhangqiyejishujuchulai，shuigehuichixuguanzhu。danshi，jishiyonghuipanggaichenggong，neiyebuhuishiyigeqianjiamendianjibiedepangdonglai，ershiyigegongyinglianduanqineigaoduyilaishuxuedesuoshuibanpangdonglai，haimianduizhegaodubairedejingzheng。

yudonglaijiangdeconglaibushizibenshichangdegushi，ershizhongguolingshouweilaidegushi，xiangfan，yeguofujiangdeshizibengushi。

congyikaishi，tamenjiuzhudinglejitongyajiang。