文丨高瑞东 赵格格

2024nian12yue16ri，guojiatongjijugongbu2024nian11yuefenjingjishuju：

【1】11yuegongyezengjiazhitongbizeng5.4%，yuqizeng5.2%，qianzhizeng5.3%；

【2】1-11yuegudingzichantouzileijitongbizeng3.3%，yuqizeng3.4%，qianzhizeng3.4%；

【3】11yueshelingtongbizeng3%，yuqizeng5.3%，qianzhizeng4.8%。

从11月经济数据来看，“两新”、“两重”和稳楼市的政策效用明显。yishi，“liangxin”shejidejiaju、jiadianheqichexiaoshoutongbizengsuchuxianxianzhugaishan，shebeigengxinchengweigutouzengsudezhuyaogongxianliliang；ershi，zaidijishuzhichengxia，quanguoshangpinfangxiaoshoudanyuetongbizengsuyoufuzhuanzheng，dichankaifatouzidiweibodongdandiefushouzhai；sanshi，“liangzhong”suozhichideshuilijiranqitouzidezengsujiaoqiang。

但是当前经济依然存在薄弱环节，主要集中于：yishijuminduiweishejixiaofeibutiedekexuanxiaofeipin，xiaofeiqingxiangyiranpiandi；ershizaijiceng“sanbao”yalihetudichurangshourutuipodebeijingxia，zhengtijijiantouzidefusuqushizaicifanghuan；sanshidangqianwujiashuipingyiranpiandi，qiyeyinglishuipingshangweigaishan。

经济持续回升向好基础仍待巩固，在顶层会议召开后，市场下一步博弈的关键点变为政策落地进程和经济内生动能改善程度。接下来重要政策观察窗口包括各部委学习中央经济工作会议精神会议、各部委2025年工作会议、2025年1月即将密集召开的地方两会等。

一、消费：低于预期，“两新”扩围有望尽快落地

2024nian11yueshelingtongbizengsuwei+3%，diyuwindyizhiyuqide+5.3%，yediyu10yuede+4.8%。conghuanbilaikan，11yueshelinghuanbizengsuwei-3.6%，diyulishitongqi（2017nianzhi2019nian、2023niantongqipingjun，xiatong）de-0.8%，yeji11yuexiaofeidejingqidudiyujijiexingyingyoushuiping；danzaidijishudezhichengshang，congliangnianfuhelaikan，11yueshelingdeliangnianfuhezengsuwei+6.5%，gaoyu6yuezhi10yue，zengsuyijinglianxuwugeyuechuxianhuisheng。

11月消费不及预期，主要受到了商品消费的拖累。shangpinxiaofeidanyuetongbizengsuzi10yuede+5.0%jiangdizhi11yuede+2.8%，liangnianfuhezengsucong10yuede+5.7%jiangdizhi11yuede+5.4%，erfuwuxiaofeizebiaoxianpingwen，canyinxiaofeidanyuetongbizengsuzi10yuede+3.2%shengzhi11yuede+4.0%，liangnianfuhezengsuzi10yuede+9.9%shengzhi11yuede+14.4%。fuwulingshoue1-11yueleijitongbizengsuwei+6.4%，zengsugaoyutongqishehuixiaofeipinlingshoue2.9gebaifendian。

商品消费中受益于“两新”的汽车、家电和家居销售表现较强，建材受益于地产回暖而逐步复苏，而可选消费品表现较弱拖累整体社零。

yishi，qichexiaoshouweichijiaoqiangtaishi，jiagediefushouzhai。zai“yijiuhuanxin”zhengcexiaranyoucheshichanghuinuan，11yueqichexiaoshoutongbizengsuzi10yuede+3.7%shengzhi+6.6%。ercongjiageshujulaikan，11yueranyouxiaoqichejiagetongbidiefushouzhai，huanbishangzhang0.2%，weijin9geyueyilaishoucizhuanzhang（xiangqingqingcankaowomenzai2024nian12yue9riwaifadebaogao《wenwujiazhengcexiaoguochuxian——2024nian11yuejiageshujudianping》）。jiadianxiaoshoutongbizengsuzi10yuede+39.2%huiluozhi+22.2%，jiajuxiaoshoutongbizengsudadao+10.5%，gaoyu10yuede+7.40%，erzhejunbaochixiangduijiaogaozengsushuiping。

ershi，kexuanxiaofeipinbiaoxianpubianjiaoruo，liruyuleyongpin、fangzhipin、tongxunqicaihehuazhuangpinxiaoshou11yuetongbizengsujunchuxiandafuhuiluo。congduanqiyinsulaikan，huoshoudaodianshang10yuetiqianqidongnianzhongdacuyouguan，ercongzhangqiyinsulaikan，yiranshishoudaojuminneishengxiaofeidongnengpianruodetuolei。

sanshi，juzhuliantiaozhongdejiancaixiaoshou11yuetongbizengsuwei+2.9%，shijin8geyuelaideshoucizhengzengzhang。dangqianyixianchengshiershoufangchengjiaozhubuqiwen，duijuzhuliantiaodailailetizhenxiaoying。

从9月以来的数据可以验证出，消费补贴政策成果显著，预计明年“两新”政策将进一步扩围加码，提振消费。congshijianjingyanlaikan，xiaofeibutiezhengceyijingchengweidangqianqiaodongyouxiaoxuqiu、kuodacaizhengchengshudetujing。12yuezhongyangjingjigongzuohuiyijiang“dalitizhenxiaofei”dingweiweimingnianjingjigongzuodediyixiangzhongdiangongzuo，bingbushu“jialikuoweishishi‘liangxin’zhengce，chuangxinduoyuanhuaxiaofeichangjing，kuodafuwuxiaofei”。womenyujimingnianxiaofeibutiezhengcejiangconglianggeweidukuowei：

congfanweilaikan，xiaofeidianzihuonarumingnianquanguocuxiaofeidefanchou。xiaofeidianzifangmian，jinnian8yueyilai，guangdong、hubei、jiangsu、guizhoudengdiluxutuichuzhenduishouji、diannaodengshumachanpindebutiezhengce，yujimingnianshishifanweiyouwangjinyibukuodazhiquanguo。

fuwuxiaofeibutielidujiangjinyibukuoda。2024nianshangbannian，fuwuxiaofeizhichuzhanbishangweihuishengzhi2019nianquannianshuiping，youdaijinyibutisheng。yinci，chulegulidazongxiaofeizhiwai，kuodafuwuxiaofeidebiyaoxinghejinpoxingyejiaoqiang，yujimingnianzhenduicanyin、lvyou、yuledengfuwuxiaofeilingyudebutieliduheshishifanweiyeyouwangkuoda。

二、制造业：产业升级及设备更新政策提振作用显著

2024nian1-11yuegudingzichantouzileijitongbizengsuwei+3.3%，lvediyuwindyizhiyuqide+3.4%，he1-10yueleijitongbizengsu+3.4%。congdanyuelaikan，gutoutongbizengsuwei+2.4%，diyu10yuede+3.4%；congliangnianfuhelaikan，gutouzengsuzi10yuede+2.4%shangxingzhi11yuede2.6%。qizhong，xiangduiyushangyue，11yuefangdichantouzidanyuetongbidiefushouzhai，zhizaoyehejijiantouzidanyuetongbizengsuxiaofuhuiluo。

11月制造业投资增速在较高水平小幅波动。1-11yuezhizaoyetouzileijitongbizengzhang9.3%，chipingyushangyue，danyuetongbizengsuzi10yuede+10.0%xiaofuhuiluozhi11yuede+9.3%，yiranbaochizaixiangduijiaogaoshuiping。conghuanbilaikan，11yuezhizaoyetouzihuanbizengsuwei+3.1%，gaoyulishitongqide-1.6%，tixianchujiaoqiangdejingqidu。

预计四季度在出口和产业升级的带动下，制造业投资将维持较高的景气度。

yishi，chanyeshengjiheshebeigengxinzhengceduizhizaoyetouzidaidongxiaoyongmingxian，1-11yuegaojishuchanyetouzitongbizengzhang8.8%，qizhonggaojishuzhizaoyehegaojishufuwuyetouzifenbiezengzhang8.2%、10.2%。juyoudaibiaoxingdehangkong、hangtianqijishebeizhizaoye，dianzijitongxinshebeizhizaoyetouzifenbiezengzhang35.4%、8.8%；

ershi，zaishebeigengxindeladongxia，1-11yueshebeigongqijugouzhitouzizengzhang15.8%，duiquanbutouzizengzhanggongxianlvdadaole65.3%，chengweitouzikuodadezhongyaozhichengyinsu。

sanshi，11yuechukoue（anmeiyuanji）tongbizengsuwei+6.7%，yiranjubeijiaoqiangderenxing。xiangqiankan，sijiduchukouzaimaoyishang“qiangchukou”xingweidezhichengxiayujijiangweichijiaogaojingqidu，yehuiduizhizaoyekuochanyiyuandailaizhicheng。

三、基建投资：重点领域投资保持较快增长，狭义基建投资增速回落

11月狭义及广义基建投资增速均相对10月出现小幅回落。jinniansanjidukaishi，zhuanxiangzhaizijinfaxingxianzhujiasu，zai“liangzhong”jianshedechixutuijinxia，daidongjichusheshitouzihuisheng，9yuehe10yuejijiantouzizengsuchuxianlianxuhuisheng。danshicong11yueshujulaikan，xiayijijian（buhandianli）touzifusudeshitouyousuofanghuan，1-11yuefenxiayijichusheshitouzitongbizengzhang4.2%，bi10yuehuiluole0.1gebaifendian；congdanyuezengsulaikan，xiayijijiantouzitongbizengsucong10yuede+5.8%huiluozhi11yuede+3.3%，guangyijijiantouzizengsucong10yuede+10.0%xiaxingzhi11yuede+9.7%。

这与我们从PMI观察的线索是保持一致的。11yuejianzhuyeshangwuhuodongzhishuwei49.7%，jiaoshangyuexiaxing0.7gebaifendian，lianxulianggeyuexiaxing，lishihanjianluorushousuoqujian。yifangmian，suizhetianqizhuanleng，jianzhuyeshigongnandujiada，jinrujianzhuyedanji，lingyifangmian，yefanyingjianzhuyejingqichengduyousuozouruo。womencaice，dangqianjijiantouzishitouyousuofanghuan，chuleshoudaoyanhantianqideyingxiangwai，yinggaiyujiceng“sanbao”yaliyiranjiaodayouguan。

不过，受“两重”政策支持的水利管理业及电力热力生产和供应业投资则保持较高增速。1-11yue，shuiliguanliyetouzizengzhang40.9%，dianlirelishengchanhegongyingyetouzizengzhang29.6%，junchuyujijianlingyudejiaogaozengsushuiping。

四、房地产：销售继续改善，止跌回稳态势明显

商品房销售面积单月同比增速时隔18个月转正。zibenlunyilanzizhengceluodihou，duodifangdichandiaokongzhengcechuxiandiaozheng，9yue-10yuequanguodichanxiaoshouchixugaishan，11yuedichanxiaoshoujinyibugaishan，shangpinfangxiaoshoumianjitongbizengsucongshangyuede-1.6%zhuanzhengzhi+3.2%，zheiyeshizi2023nian5yueyilaishangpinfangxiaoshoumianjizengsudeshoucizhuanzheng。quanguoshangpinfangxiaoshouetongbizengsuyicongshangyuede-1.4%zhuanzhengzhi+1.4%。conggaopinshujulaikan，12yueqian16tian30dazhongchengshidefangdichandanrixiaoshoumianjijixuchuxiangaishan，zi11yuequanyuederijun39.05wanpingmishangxingzhi41.03wanpingmi。fangdichankaifatouzidiefuyechuxianshouzhai，danyiranchuyudiweiyunxingzhuangtai。fangdichankaifatouzidanyuetongbidiefucong10yuede11.8%shouzhaizhi9.8%。

综合来看，房地产行业经过了近三年的调整，已经释放出“筑底”信号，yifangmianzhengcepinchuyouzhuyuwendingjuminyuqi，jiasuzhufangxuqiushifang，hexinchengshishangpinfangshichangliangjiahuojiangqiwen；lingyifangmian，gexiangrongzigongju“zuhequan”youwangxingchengguimoxiaoying，jiasuwendingkaifashangheyinxingdenggefangxinxin，jiasufangdichanxingyexinfazhanmoshidegoujian。

接下来，稳定房地产的政策“组合拳”有望进一步落地，专项债支持收储、控制新增土地供给等政策有望进一步稳定房地产市场。12yuezhongyangjingjigongzuohuiyitichu“chixuyonglituidongfangdichanshichangzhidiehuiwen”，yiweizhemingnianfangdichanxiangguanzhengcejiangchixufali，zhidaofangdichanshichangchuxianmingquedehuiwenshitou。chulehuobitiaojianjinyibukuansongyishifangzhufangxuqiuqianli，difangzhengfuhelikongzhixinzengfangdichanyongdigongying，tongguodifangzhuanxiangzhaihuigouxianzhiyongdi、chengzhongcungaizaoxiaohuacunliangshangpinfangdegongzuojiangluxuzhankai，tuidonggengdafanweidedinengjichengshifangdichanshichangqiwen。

（文章仅代表作者观点。作者高瑞东，系光大证券首席经济学家，研究所所长；赵格格，中国人民大学数学学士，北京大学金融学硕士。文章首发于作者微信公号“高瑞东宏观笔记”，版权归属原作者。责编邮箱：yanguihua@jiemian.com。）