文 | 略大参考 付饶

编辑 | 原野

liujingzhengmeiyouhekukejianguomian，youyikuyenanhepingguocheshangguanxi，danzheibingbufangailiujingzhengbakukedangchengjingzhengduishou。

2015nian，zaijieshoumeiguo《lianxian》zazhicaifangshi，zheiweidangleduonianribenshoufudeqiyejiafangyanbiaoshi：youyiku（jixunxiaojituan）shiyijiajishugongsi，weiyidejingzhengduishoubushigap，ershipingguo。

bishishirenyouyikudeshejizongjian——longzezhiji，shenzhizaigongkaichanghezhijiejiangyouyikujichukuandegaijinguocheng，yuiphonedediedaigengxinjinxingbijiao，fangfogengjialuoshilepingguo“jingzhengduishou”deshenfen。

danrujin，zheizhongjingzhengguanxizaizhongguoshichangbufucunzai。

yinweipingguozaizhongguoshichangdefazhannanti，tongyangchuxianzaileyouyikushenshang。biru：1、doumianlinzhongguoshichangzengzhangfalikunjing；2、yewudougaoduyilaizhongguoshichang；3、zaizhongguoshichangdouzaijiadadiaozhenglidu。

weici，pingguoceokukezaijinniandapolaihuacishu，buguangxiangzhongguoshichangchixushifangshanyi，gengshiqinzixiachanglaituijinzaizhongguoqudeyewu，yiwanhuixiaoliangtuishi。ranerbiqikuke，liujingzhengbuguangyaomianlinyouyikuzaihuayejixiahuadewenti，qianduanshijiantazaibbcguanyu“youyikubushiyongxinjiangmian”deyanlun，sihuyoubazijidekengwashenleyidian。

01 中国区增长乏力

2024nian，pingguozaizhongguoshichangderizibusuanhaoguo。

zuixinpiludepingguocaibaoxianshi，disijidu，pingguoyingshoudadaole949.3yimeiyuan，xiangbiquniantongqide894.98yimeiyuanshixianle6%zengzhang。danzaidazhonghuaqu，pingguoyingshouwei150.33yimeiyuan，diyuquniantongqide150.8yimeiyuan，tongbixiajiangle0.34%。

tongshi，congquannianshijianweidulaikan，2024cainianpingguozaidazhonghuaquxiaoshouejinwei669.5yimeiyuan，diyuquniantongqide725.6yimeiyuan。

zhongguoshichangshipingguoweiyiyingshouxiahuadeshichang。congshoujichuhuoliangshanglaishuo，pingguodeshichangfenezhengzaibeigengduoguochanjisuocanshi。

gongkaishujuxianshi，2024nianqianliuzhou，pingguoiphoneshoujizaizhongguodexiaoshouliangtongbixiahua24%，zaizhongguoshoujishichangdefenediezhidisiwei。

daolejinnian7yue，pingguozaizhongguozhinengshoujichuhuoliangpaimingshenzhishoucidiechuqianwu。canalysdeshujuxianshi，jinniandierjidu，zhongguodaluzhinengshoujichuhuoliangtongbizengzhang10%，zhonghui7000wantaishuiping。qizhongvivo、oppo、rongyao、huawei、xiaomibaolanqianwu，pingguochuhuopaimingtuizhidiliu，shichangfenezhanju14%，tongbixiajiang2%。

zaidisanjidu，pingguopingjienianduxinpinshangshi，yi15.6%deshichangfenezhongfanzhongguoshichangqianwuwei，danhequnianshichang16.1%deshichangfenexiangbi，tongbizengfurengweifushu。

jinguankukezaigongkaichangheduocibiaodaleduiyuzhongguoshichangdexinxin，dantayezaicaibaodianhuahuiyizhonggaosufenxishi：zhongguo，neiliwuyishiquanqiujingzhengzuijiliedeshichang。

pingguozaizhongguoshichangdejingyu，tongyangchuxianzaiyouyikudecaibaoli。

youyikuzuijinfabude2024cainiancaibaoxianshi，zuoweiyouyikudierzengzhangzhizhudezhongguoshichangxianrulezengsudafufanghuandejingkuang。jiezhi2024nian8yuedide2024cainiannei，youyikuzaidazhonghuaqudeyingshouzengzhang9.2%，yingyelirunweizeng0.5%。

congquanniandeshijianweidulaikan，jinguanyouyikuzaizhongguoshichangdeyingshouhelirundourengzaizengzhang，danjiaociqianshuangweishudezengsumingxianfanghuan。bujinruci，xiaolvyechuxianlewenti。zhongguoqudianpudedandianyingshoujinweiribenbentudeyiban，shichangfenegengshidiepo2%。

gengzaoshihou，youyikuzaizhongguoshichangdezengzhangweijibiankaishixianxian：biruzaierjidu，tazaizhongguoshichangdebiaoxianjizhuanzhixia。jinguanyingshouzengzhang，dantongdianxiaoshouhelirunshuangshuangxiahua；zaisanjidu，zaiyouyikuyingshou、zonglirunzengshijunshixianshuangweishudafuzengzhangdeqingkuangxia，dazhonghuaqudeyouyikuquechuxianyingshou、lirundafuxiajiang，tongdianxiaoshoueweisuodengxianxiang。

zaizhongguoshichangdezengzhangdimi，tongyangfanyingdaolemendianshuliangshang。

ciqian，liujingzhengcengduizhongguoshichangzuoguoyigeleguandeyugu：zhongguoshichangkeyirongna3000jiayouyikumendian，bingjiangmeinianzaihuadejingzengmendianshuliangdingwei80jia。

buguozi2018niankaishi，youyikuzaizhongguoshichangdemendianjingzengmubiaocongweiwanchengguo，jiehewangnianqingkuanglaikan，youyikuzaizhongguodemendianjingzengshuliangshenzhichuxianchixuxiahuaqushi。2021cainianzhi2023cainian，youyikuzaizhongguodemendianfenbiejingzengle66jia、64jiahe35jia。daole2024cainian，zheiyishuliangjinwei30jia。

wulunshiduiyuyouyikuhaishipingguoeryan，“zhongguoshichangzengzhanghuanman”chengletamengongtongdenanti。

02 两种解法

gaizenmeyingduizhongguoqudezengzhangfali，pingguoheyouyikujichulebuyiyangdedaan。

pingguodedaanshijiangjia，bingjijituidongaizaizhongguoshichangdeluodi。

zaijinnianshuang11qijian，pingguogongsizaiqiguanfangqudaoduixinfabudeiphone 16xiliejinxingledaguimojiangjiacuxiao。diejiashangyijiuhuanxindebutie，iphone 16xiliezuigaojian1600yuan，yidingchengdushangbeiwaijierenweishiweilecujinxiaoliang。xiaoguoyeshimingxian。genjucounterpointdeshuju，iphone 16xiliedexiaoliangzaishouyuebiaoxianqiangjing，tongbizengzhangle20%。

danzheibingbuyiweizhepingguogaozhenwuyou。genjucounterpointzai11yue21rifabudezhongguozhinengshoujimeizhouzhuizongbaogao，jinnian“shuang11”，iphonezaiguoneidexiaoliangtongbixiajiang“liangweishubaifenbi”。

jiuqiyuanyin，xiangduizhongguotoubuqiye，pingguozaichuangxinshangshizhongquyubaoshou。zaizhedieping、aideliangdasaidaobujushang，yuanyuanluohouyuguochanjihuawei、rongyao、oppo、vivodengguochanji，zheixiepinpaizaiaigongnengdexianfayoushi，duipingguochanshenglebuxiaochongji。

jinguanpingguozaijijiyubaiduhezuo，yituidongaigongnengzaiguoneiluodi，danjugongkaibaodaoxianshijinzhanbingbushunli。zheiyerangneixieduipingguoaijishuganxingqudanwufatiyandexiaofeizhe，duipingguodexinpinchuyuguanwangtaidu。

pingguocelvezaizhongguoshichangdeshiling，tongyangyingshedaoleyouyikushang。

zai90niandaixiaofeijiangjideriben，youyikulvxianxiangguangdaxiaofeizhetigongledaliangjialianwumeidexiuxianfuzhuang。

youci，bishizhuiqiujizhixingjiabideribenxiaofeizherangyouyikudegujiazaijinianjianxunsuzhangle10bei。youyikudeyejiyeshunshijueqi，cong1990niande52yiriyuan，zengzhangdao2010niande8148yiriyuan，20niandeshijianli，youyikuxiaoshouezengzhangleyue160bei，jingyinglirunzengzhangle1500bei。

erzaitongyangzaixiaofeijiangjiqushixiadezhongguoshichang，youyikudejiaqianbujiangfanzeng，zheiyerangyuanbenzairibenshichangbeishiweixingjiabipinpaideyouyiku，xianrubeizhongguoxiaofeizheyongbaipaipingtidejumian。

zaigedashejiaopingtaishang，bushaoxiaofeizhefenfentucaoyouyikubianguile、chouledegankai，zhengshiyouyujiaqianhekuanshideyuanyin，rangbufenxiaofeizhexunzhaoqile“youyikupingti”。zaidianshangpingtaisousuo“youyikupingti””、“youyikutongkuan”dengguanjianci，huiyongxianchuhailiangshangpinhedianpu，qizhong，bufentongkuandanpinxiaoliangshenzhinenggaodajiwanjian。

erzaisanjiduyejibaogaozhong，youyikudazhonghuaqushouxizhixingguanpanningzaicaizhengjianbaozhongzhezhongtidaole“pingti”xiaofeichaoduigongsidechongji。tazhichu，daduoshuzhongguoxiaofeizhedexintaizhengzaifashengbianhua，tamengengqingxiangyuxuanzezhiliangyupinpaishangpinjihumeiyouqubie、danjiagegengshihuidechanpin。

gengduoshujuyekeyizhengmingzheiyiqushi。

junierseniq《2024 zhongguoxiaofeizhezhanwang》diaoyanshujuxianshi，yu2023nianchudiaoyanxiangbi，xiaofeizheduijiageminganduzhengtishangsheng，zaiyidijiadexiaofeizhezhanbicong20%shangshengzhi35%；kanzhongxingjiabi、duopingtaibijiadexiaofeizhezhanbicong28%shangshengwei30%，erxiaofeiziyou、zhuiqiujinjiejiazhidexiaofeizhezhengtizhanbicong52%xiajiangzhi 35%。

raner，jibianzaizhongguoxiaofeishichangbiaoxianbujia，youyikuyebingmeiyouzaijiaqianshangzuoguoduodediaozheng，ershixuanzeleguanbikuisundedianpu，tishengdandianxiaolv。2025cainian，youyikujihuazaidazhonghuaquyouzhididuankaishexindian60jia，erwangnianzheiyishuzijibenshi80jiadao100jia。

tongshi，youyikuzaijinnian2024qiudongkuanzhong，weishunyingzhongguoxiaofeizhehuwaichaoliu，tuichuleyaolirong、waitaodanpindengzuixinkejidanpinxilie。dansuizheluotuo、dikanongdengpinpaifenfenfalihuwaifuzhuangdequshixia，youyiku129yuanyijianyaolirongyifudexingjiabi，huoxuzaixiaofeizhexinmuzhong，yuanburuqianliangzhediyu100yuanyijianlaideshizai。

ciwai，youyikuxuanzezaihaiwaishichangfali，kaituoxinshichang。

2024cainian，youyikuzaichudazhonghuaquwaidehaiwaishichangdemendianjingzengjia63jia，jiezhi2024nian8yuemomendianshulianglaidao603jia，zheixieshichangduijituanzongyingshoudezhanbicong29.5%zengjiadao33.3%，shouduchaoyueribenyouyiku。

fendiqulaikan，youyikuzainanhan、dongnanya、yinduheaozhoudeyingshouheyingyelirunjunchaoguo20%zengzhang，tilianggengxiaodebeimeiheouzhoushichangdeyingshouzengfufenbiewei33%he45%，yingyelirunzengfufenbiewei65%he70%。

biyouyikugengbianyiheshishangdejiemeipinpaiguyezaifali。2024nian，gaipinpaijinzhumeiguokaisheleshoujiaquanqiuqijiandianjidianshangqudao。

jinguandazhonghuaqushichangdelirunzengsujihutingzhi。danzaibeimeiheouzhoushichang，youyikuyingyeyililvgaoda15%yishang，zheiyechengweiyouyikuhaiwailirunzengzhangdezhuyaolaiyuan。

zhongguoshichangzaodaozengzhangtingzhideyouyiku，zaihaiwaishichangzhaodaolexindezengliang。

03 都离不开中国市场

11yue25ri，kukexianshenbeijingcanjialianbohui（zhongguoguojigongyingliancujinbolanhui），jieshoujizhecaifangshibiaoshi：“wofeichangzhongshitamen（zhongguohezuohuoban），meiyouzhongguodehezuohuoban，pingguojiuwufaqudejintiandechengjiu。”

zaixianchangpingguogongsidezhanlanpaishangxiedao，applede200jiazhuyaogongyingshangzhong，youchaoguo80%zaizhongguoshengchan。

congkukejinniansancifanghuadecishushangheduocigongkaichangheli，kukebuzhiyicideshuodaozhongguoshipingguozuizhongyaoyeshizuizhongshidehuoban。danshijishang，kukeyecengxunzhaoguoduoyuanhuashichang，laiduichongzhongguoshichangdeguoduyilai。

zaikukekanlai，yuenanheyindushipingguogongsijianshaoduizhongguoguoduyilaideshouyiguozhiyi，buguangkeyifentangongyingliandeyali，zheilianggeshichanggengshipingguoqianzaidejudaxiaofeishichangzhiyi。

youyuyinduchangxuyaoyilaicongzhongguodalujinkoudalianglingbujian，bingqieyinduchangiphonedaigonglianglvjinyou50%dengyinsu，pingguozhinengjiangchannengzaicihuiliuzhongguoshichang。zaijinnian7yue，pingguocoojiefu·weilianmusilaidaozhongguo，zoufanggongyinglianqiyejiukejianpingguoduiyuzhongguoshichangdezhongshi。

duiyuyouyikueryan，chuangshirenliujingzhengyezaijinqicaifangzhongmingquebiaoshilezhongguoshichangdezhongyaoxing：zhongguobujinshiyouyikudeshengchanzhongdi，gengshiqiquanqiuzhanlvezhongdeguanjianyihuan。juyouyikumugongsixunxiaojituanjinnian9yuepiludebaogao，gaigongsi397jiahezuofuzhuangshengchanshangzhong，you211jiadouzaizhongguo。

zuoweiyouyikuzuidadeshengchanjidi，zhongguotongshiyeshiqimendianguimozuidadeshichang。cong2021nianqi，youyikuzaizhongguodemendianshuliangbianyichaoyueribenbentu。jiezhi2024nian8yuedi，youyikuzaidazhonghuaqugongyongyou1032jiamendian，qizhong926jiaweiyuneidi。tongqi，ribenbentudemendianshuliangzejiangzhile800jiayixia。

jinguanzaizhongguoshichangdemendiankuozhangcelvequyubaoshou，danzailiujingzhengkanlai，“guanbibuyinglidedianpubenshenjiushiyigeziwogaibiandeguocheng。zaiqiyezhengchangdejingyinghuodongzhong，shiyederongkushengshuaishichangyoudeshi。”zhongguoyou14yirenkou，youyikuzhikaidaolejin1000jiadian，juli3000jiamendiandemubiaohaiyoujudafazhanqianli。

zaijinnian10yuedenianducaibaofabuhuishang，youyikushezhangzhongyuedajieyezhiyan：“womenxianzaidazhonghuaqudeluzhizouleyiban。”

ciwai，zhongguoshichangshiyouyikuyingshouzuizhongyaodehaiwaishichang。xunxiaojituanjin5niancaibaoxianshi，youyikuzaidazhonghuadiqudeshouruyizhizhanzongshourude20%yishang。zuijinde2024cainiancaibaoyexianshi，youyikuzaizhongguodeniandushouyiyou6770yiriyuan，zhanqimugongsiquanqiuzongshourude21.8%。chuquribenshichang，dankanyouyikudehaiwaibantu，zhongguoshichangnengzhanqihaiwaishichangbantude40%。

wulunshiliujingzhenghaishikuke，renheyigeshangren，qishidoubuxiangbajidanfangzaiyigelanzili。

xianranyanxiadezhongguoshichangduitameneryan，shijiyuzuidayeshibibukeshaodeneigelanzi。jinguanzaizhongguoshichangmianlinzheyejiyali，juyoupangdaqianlidezhongguoshichangduiyuzheiliangjiagongsilaishuo，rengyougushikejiang，erqieshibunengchucuodezhongyaoshichang。

suizheshichangxiaofeiqushidebianhua，xiaofeirenqunguanniandebuduanbianhua，meiyouyijianengkaozheyitaomoshizoutongsuoyoudeshichang。zailiujingzhengkanlai，“jingyingjiushiyigelianxushixingdecuowu，rangyijiagongsinengyizhinenggoubaochizhixianshangshengdezhuangtai，shiyijiannanshi。”

yijiagongsidechuhaizhilubuzongshiyifanfengshunde。jibianshirujinzaioumeishichangyijinghuodejiaodazengzhangdeyouyiku，yecengjingmianlinguobeirenmenmaihuiqujiangshangbiaojiandiao，youpinleiwupinpaideganga。zai《yifuzhiwang：youyikuzhangmenrenliujingzheng》yishuzhong，tacengtoulu，youyikudajinouzhoushichangyonglewuniandeshijian，dajinzhongguoshichangyonglebaniandeshijian。

zheihuoxuyenengjidaozhongguochuhaiqiyeyixieqishi：suizhejingyinghuanjingbuduanfashengzhezhuanbian，jingyingzheyeyaosuizhewaibuhuanjingdezhuanbian，jishizhuanhuanzijidejingyingsilu。