wen | yulezibenlun zhangyihong
shenmejiaogandehaoburuchaodehao?
jinriyijiayisi“jieqiao”deshangshigongsikaozheduanjugainian,duodasantianzhangting,qimuhoudalaozhengjianboyihaozhuan50%dejingshouyi,shangshigongsishizhiyebaozhangle5geyizuoyou。erzheigebeichaozuodeduanjugongsijuzhunhuyu,shiyijiazaiduanjuxingyemingbujianjingchuandejiangxigongsi。
zaiyenei,tamenpaibudaotop30,yichongzhiesuan,tamenzhukongdeduanjuzongemeiyoupoyi,danzixiyanjiujuzhunbeihou,tamenquejiyoukenengyuxiaoyucengdiaoyanguodejiangxibangyouguan。
zhongsuozhouzhi,guoneiduanjuxingyeyou95%yishangdegongsibingbuzhengqian,gaoda85%zuoyoudechongzhifeiyongdougongxianjiletouliufang,yanyuandengyoujiutoulu,jintarenshiderenzhong,2023nianjiuyou5renyinduanjujuzudegaoqiangdugongzuoercusi。daole2024nian,zheizhongneijuanxianxiangyuefatuchu。
jiuzaihualingjinggong(603356.sh)lianxuzhangtingdeneijitian,hetunjunzhenghaozaihangzhouheduanjutongrenmenyikuaichifanhecha,dajiatongyideganshoujiushi:“gandehaoburuchaodehao”,“shenmeshihoucainengzhijietaoxianzourenyuanliduanjuzheigexiuluochang”!
01 拍短剧没赚到钱,但要给上市公司四个亿?
12yue11ri,hualingjinggong(603356.sh)zaitingpaiwugejiaoyirihoudefupaidiertianzhangting,cihouduocichuxianzhangting。tongshi,zheisangejiaoyiridehuanshoulvjundadaojingrende30%zuoyou。zheiyixilieyichangbiaoxiandelaiyuan,jingshiyijiaduanjugongsi。
hualingjinggongzai9ripilu《guanyugongsiyutedingduixiangqianshufutiaojianshengxiaodegufenrengouxieyijiguanlianjiaoyidegonggao》。hualingjinggongnixiangtedingduixiangfaxinggupiao,shangraojuzhunnirengoujinebuchaoguo45,320.00wanyuan,faxingwanchenghou,shangraojuzhunchengweigongsikonggugudong,qishikongrenzhengjianboyejiangchengweihualingjinggongdeshijikongzhiren。
zhengjianbokongzhidejuzhunjituanguanwangxianshi,zheishiyijia“yixinmeitineirongyuanchuangyufaxingweihexinyewudegongsi”,“xunsujishenquanguotoubutidui,quannianyunyingxiaohaotupo2yi+,shejixiaoshuo、youxi、mcn、dianshangdengtuiguangyewu,leijixiaohao20yi+”。
yulezibenlunshenbazheiyijiaoyidezhongzhongxijie,faxianzheijiagongsibeihoujiyoukenengyuxiaoyucengdiaoyanguodejiangxibang(《qidizimeitijiede“jiangxibang”:piliangqihao,aifangliang,jiafangzuiai》)youguan。
图1 华菱精工近三个月股价走势与成交量,数据来源:同花顺iFind
xuyaozhuyideshi,cicidingxiangzengfadeduixiangshishangraojuzhunqimingqiyeguanlihehuoqiye(youxianhehuo)。zheishiyijiajinnian11yue22rideyouxianhehuoqiye,shelizhijinshangweishijikaizhanyewu。
lingyigeqiaohe,tianyanchashujuxianshi,shangraojuzhundechuziewei5yiyuan,zhenghaofugainirengoujinede4.5yiyuan。zuoweiduibi,erzhengjianbokongzhideqitahexinqiye,zhucezibenjunbuchaoguo5qianwanyuan。(genjuwoguoxiangguanguiding,hehuoqiyezhucezijinbingbuqiangzhiyaoqiushijiao)。
图2 上饶巨准出资份额情况,资料来源:公司公告,天眼查
keyishuo,shangraojuzhunshizhuanmenweilecicidingzengershelideqiye。gengjiazhideguanzhudeduixiang,shizhengjianbokongzhidehexinqiye——juzhunjituan。genjuhualingjinggongdebaogao,shangraojuzhunshiyongziyouzijinjinxingcicirengou。danduibijuzhunjituanyeji,4geyidejineyexiandeyouxie“tianfangyetan”。
图3 华菱精工公告中郑剑波控制的核心企业,资料来源:公司公告,天眼查
congguanwangtigongdeyewumokuailaikan,juzhundezhuyingyewuyijingyuduanjuchanyelianchengxianqiangbangdingdezhuangtai。raner,juzhunhuyujiezhimuqianshangxiandeduanjubingbuduo。yulezibenlungenjudataeyeshuju,juzhunhuyuguanlian13buduanju,qizhongchengzhi9bu。erjuzhunjuchangdouyinhaozhongtoufangjin27buduanjuzuopin,jiezhimuqianfensiliangjin27.1wan。yutoubupingtaidetiliangxiangbi,juzhundeguimokanchengmiaoxiao。
图4 巨准集团业务模块,资料来源:公司官网
zaijuzhunhuyuyishangxiandeguanlianjujizhong,biaoxianliangyanzheyeliaoliaowuji。chule1yuejuzhunhuyudeshoubuzuopin《mengbaoshenzhugong,diedinalitao》zaishichangshangjiqileyixieshuihuayiwai,juedaduoshuzuopinzairibangshangzhitingliuleduanduanyiliangtian。
图5 巨准互娱关联短剧榜单情况,资料来源:DataEye
genjudataeyeshuju,juzhunhuyuzuoweipingtaifangdetouliurelizhiwei4197.8w,yuanyuandiyufanqie、dianzhong、jiuzhoudengtouliurelizhidongzhechao20yidetoubupingtai,zuoweichengzhifangrelizhiwei4248.3w,yehebangdanqianliedezhongqingsiyuelianmeng、maiyazizhidengchengzhifangxiangchalianggeshuliangji。
zaihexinyewuyebiaoxianpingpingdeqingkuangxiaxuanzetunxiayijiashangshigongsi,daodishiweileyejidezengzhang,haishizibendezengzhang?
02 短剧和电梯上市公司,有什么关系?
jiaoyidelingyifang,hualingjinggong,yijiazhuyaocongshi“diantilei、jixieshitingcheshebeilei、fengdianleidengpeijianchanpindeyanfa、shengchanhexiaoshou”dejixieshebeigongsi。2018nianshangshi,jinjinianshoudaofangdichanxingyeyingxiang,yingyeshouruchixusinianxiahua,jinglirunzaishengsixianshangpaihuai;buchuyiwai,2024nianyingdangshilianxudisanniandefulirun。
图6 华菱精工2020年至今盈利情况,数据来源:同花顺iFind
zheibingbushihualingjinggongdiyicixunqiumaishen。qunian5yue,hualingjinggonggonggaocheng,gongsishikongrenhuangyehuajiazunitongguozhuanrangguquanfangshiyinrujiedenglingtan(jiangsu)xinnengyuankejiyouxiangongsi,diyibuguquanzhuanrangyijingshishi,danzuizhongdingzengbeizhongzhi。
zaizheiyangdebeijingxia,hetunjunhennanxiangxin,zhengjianbocishitouzihualingjinggong,shikanzhonglediantixingyedeqianjing。
qianwenzhongxiaoyutidao,shangraojuzhunshiyijiayouxianhehuoqiye。shiyongyouxianhehuoqiyetouzirugu,kenengcunzaidehaochuzaiyushangraojuzhunheyuanyoudejuzhunjituanbeiqiegedeganganjingjing,zheihuoxunengshidecicidingzenggengrongyitongguojiaoyisuohezhengjianhuideshencha。
ergengjiazhongyaodeshi,zhengjianbokeyitongguozijiputonghehuorendeshenfen,laolaobawoduishangshigongsidekongzhiquan。danzheiyijiagouzhiyouzaijiarugengduoyouxianhehuorendeqingkuangxiacainengfahuizuoyong,ershangraojuzhunmuqiandelingyiweihehuorenwangxianvshishizhengjianboqizi,weiyizhixingdongren。
shenmeyangdeqingkuangkenengchuxianxindeyouxianhehuorenqiexuyaozhangwokongzhiquan?zheirangrenxunsulianxiangzhongdazichanzhongzujiaoyi。
shishishang,rangzhengjianbodeyizourugongzhongshiyede,zhengshiyichangzhongdazichanzhongzujiaoyi。2017nian,sanweitongxin(002115.sz)shiyongziyouxianjin+faxinggufendefangshi,shougoulejuwangkeji100%deguquan,qizhongxianjinbufenjiaoyizongebuchaoguo2.5yi。zhengjianboyeyinciyiyuechengweishangshigongsideqianshidagudong,woyousanweitongxin11.5%degufen。
zaizheichangshougouzhong,juwangkejideguzhigaoda13.5yiyuan。juwangkeji2016niandeyingshougangcong1geyiyueshengdao5geyi,jinglirunweibuguoqianwanjibie。ruguoanzhaojingzichanjisuan,juwangkejidesuoyouzhequanyigangguo1geyi。2015-2017nian,juwangkejizaixinsanbanshangshishi,zongshizhidazhiweichizai7geyishangxia。
yejiushishuo,juwangkejizaibeibinggoushi,guzhijijinfanfan!
图7 巨网科技上市前利润表,数据来源:公司公告
youci,xiaoyuhuoxunengkanjianhualingjinggonghejuzhunkejideweilai——suiran12geyueneizhengjianbobuhuidiaozhenggongsidezhuyingyewu,danyichanggaoyijiashougou,sihuzhengzaiyunniang。
03 重大资产重组,下一步呢?
zhongdazichanzhongzuzhihou,juwangkejiyijingwanchenglezibenhuazhilushangcongyijiaputongdeduanjugongsimaixiangshangshigongsidezuiguanjiandeyibu。dangaoyijiabiranyoudaijia,zibenhuadezuihouyihuanhaimeiyouquanbuwancheng。
binggoubiaodezaiyejichengnuoqimanhoubianliandeqingkuangbingbushaojian。juwangkeji“bianlian”quefashengzaimaolilvshang。
shougouwanchenghoude2017-2019nian,juwangkejiyuanmanwanchengyejichengnuorenwu。youyusanweitongxinyuanxiandezhuyingyewuweitongxinyewu(zhuyaoweiyunyingshanghexingyekehutigongyidongtongxinwangluoshebeijixitongjiejuefanganzonghefuwu),keyirenwei2017niankaishibaobiaozhongchuxiandehulianwangxinxifuwuweijuwangkejichuangzao。
图8 巨准科技业绩承诺完成情况,数据来源:公司公告
dan2020niankaishi,hulianwangxinxifuwudemaolilvyixiazicong6%diaodao1%。duici,sanweitongxinjichudeliyoushi:suizhegongsiyewudefazhan,gongsiyewuzhongxindiaozheng,bufendimaolilvdeyewuqudailegaomaolilvdeyewu,yihuanqugongsizhengtimaolidezengzhang。
图9 三维通信互联网信息服务分部收入和毛利情况,数据来源:同花顺iFind
duiyuguanggaogongsilaishuo,yejibianlianzaizhengchangbuguo。xiaoyuzai《qidizimeitijiede“jiangxibang”:piliangqihao,aifangliang,jiafangzuiai》yiwenzhongxiedao,jiangxibang“jiedanbizuohaogengniu”,yejiushi“shangyouquzhaokehunaguanggaoyusuan,xiayouwajuelianxizimeiti,baokuogerenhao、guimohuadezimeitigongsi、songsanxingdemcnjigoudengdeng”。erhulianwangguanggaotoufang、zimeitiyewu,qiaqiashizhuceyushangraodejuwangkejidezhuyaoyewuzhiyi。congzheigejiaodulaikan,juwangkejidegaoyingshoudimaoli,sihubiandegengjiarongyilijiele。
raner,zaiyemeiyouhuifudao2%yishangshuipingdehulianwangfenbu,youruheshixianzhengdejinglirunni?genjuhulianwangbaodao,2021nianjiangxijuwangkejiyingshou90yiyuan(yusanweitongxinpilushuexiangdang),nashui1.12yiyuan;ergenjunianbaojisuan,hulianwangxinxifuwumaolijiuzhiyou1.25yiyuan。yilianduonian,sanweitongxindejinglirunshizhongzailingdefujinzhengzha。
图10 三维通信收购前后盈利情况,数据来源:同花顺iFind
lingyibian,zhengjianboyuwangxiadexianshouguyu2020nian12yue28rijiejin。zaixianshougujiejinhou,zhengjianbotongguoduocipaoshou,rujinzaisanweitongxindechiguzhanbijinwei2.57%。zai2020niandegonggaozhong,juwangkeji“junweifashengjianzhi”,zai2021nian,queyijujiti8yishangyujianzhi——2017nianshougoushideguzhi,yebuguo13yi。
图11 郑剑波持有三维通信股份占比情况,数据来源:同花顺iFind
注:除主动减持股票以外,2021年公司实施非公开发行、股权激励等,也会造成一定的被动稀释。
gudongjianchihoushangyujianzhi,zheibianshizhengjianboshangyilunzibenyunzuodezuihouyihuan。
04 结语:干得好不如炒得好?
ruguozuizhongmudedoushizhuruxinzichan,weishenmehualingjinggongyaotongguodingzenghuanshikongren,zaijinxingzhongdazichanzhongzu?hualingjinggongzuixinjibaozhongzhangshangjinyou7qianwanxianjin、xiangyaoraokai“jieqiaoshangshi”deshenchadoushikenengdeyuanyin。erlianxu3ribeihoudemeitian30%huanshoulv,youshisheizaifangliang?
cicidingzengrengxuyaodedaozhengjianhuidepifu,dingzengdechenggongyufou,tongyangshiyigejudadeyituan。ruguohualingjinggonganzhaorenmensuoyuxiangdedingzengchenggong,yinianhouzhunbeizhongdazichanzhongzu,neimedingzengqianlihao、gaoguzhiyijiashougou、shougouhoujianchidelianxuju,shifouhuizhongfushangyan?
hetunjunnengquedingdeshi,zibenyunzuonengdailaideshouyi,yuanyuandayurenzhenzuoshiyenengdailaideshouyi——bijingjuxiaoyusuozhi,yenei98%dexiangmudouzaikuiqian。danduiyuzai2024nianzhongbaozhongxinjinruqianshidagudongdezhengjianbo、humuhua(weihualingjinggongxiankonggugudonghuangyehuadeyizhixingdongren)laishuo,yierjidudejunjia12.23yuan/gujisuanchengben,qishouyiyichaoguo50%——erzheibuguoshiyicilihaoxiaoxidailaidehaochu。
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