wen | lianxianchuxing duxiaoxun

编辑 | 马军

2016nianqianhou，yipiyoujishubangshen、congguowaidachangguilaidechuangyezhe，jiangshixianmiaozhunlezidongjiashizheikuai“wurenqu”，bingkaishichengligongsi、xinarencai、kuozhangyewu。

bishi，zidongjiashidejishumubiaoyizhi、chanyelianhuanjiezhongduoqieshangdaikaifa、chanpinyingyongfanweiguangkuo……meiyitiaoxifensaidaoduiyuzheixiejishukachuangshirenmeneryan，douyouzhejudadexiyinli。

danjishuxingyeqiyedejueqizongshilibukaigaoedeyanfatouru，zidongjiashixingyesuijijinruleyiduanmanzhangdediaozhengqi，duojiagongsiyejichangnianjukui，caiyuan、diaozheng、dagudongchezidexiaoxiciqibifu。

buguo，jinliangnian，yuelaiyueduodecheqijiangshixianluozaizhinengjiashijishudebujushang，daidongzidongjiashichanyelianshangyoudelingbujiangongyingshangqiyehuodezibenqinglai，birujiguangleidaqiyehesaikeji、sutengjuchuangdengdeng。

jinru2024nian，baiduqixiazhinengchuxingpingtailuobukuaipaodebaohuo、tesilarujurobotaxidengdeng，rang“zidongjiashiyichengxianshi”degainianzhirugengduoputongxiaofeizhedenaohai。

图源萝卜快跑官方自动驾驶微信公众号

zibendeyanguangyekaishixiangchanyelianzhong、xiayouqiyeyidong，zhijiakejigongsidipingxian、aixinpiangongsiheizhima；xiaomazhixing、ruqichuxing、wenyuanzhixingdengrobotaxi、robotruckqiyejunhuodeduolunrongzi，bingzaijinnianchenggongshangshi。

cengjing，l4jibiedezidongjiashishixiannanduguogao，yidurangshichangshiquxinxin，rujin，zibenreqingdehuiwenyerangbushaoqiyezhongshilekaifal4jizidongjiashidemubiao，yinciqiyejiandejishuzhanrengzaijixu。

zaijiamayanfahejishubipindeguochengzhong，duoshuqiyexianruzhangqigaoekuisun，nanyipinghengtouruheyinglideqiyejiangbeitaotaichuju。

tongshi，xinnengyuanqichexingyedejiagezhanyuyanyulie，xiayouqiyeduichengbendeyasuohuojiangduishangyouzidongjiashilingbujianhuoxinpianqiyechanshengyingxiang，yuelaiyueduodexinnengyuancheqihaikaishizizhuyanfazhinengjiashixitong，zheiyehuoduohuoshaohuiduizidongjiashiqiyedefenezaochengjiya。

zidongjiashiqiyemianlinde，shiyichangguanhushengsidetiaozhan。

yinci，zidongjiashiqiyexuyaomujigengduozijin，yizhichiqiyedejishutouru，jiasuchanpindeshangyehuajincheng，zuizhongshixianniukui。

01 高估值、冲上市，哪些自动驾驶公司领跑了？

2024nian，zibende“juguangdeng”luozailezidongjiashishenshang。

zaikuanianzhongshengqiaoxiangzhihoudediwutian，jiguangleidajiganzhijiejuefanganqiyesutengjuchuangzaigangguqiaozhong，chengwei2024niangangguipodiyigu。

jinnianxiabannian，gangjiaosuozhonggengshimijichuanlaizidongjiashiqiyeshangshidexiaoxi。

7yue，“zidongjiashiyunyingkejigu”ruqichuxingzaixianggangguapaishangshi；8yue，zidongjiashixinpianqiyeheizhimazhinengzaigangjiaosuoguapaishangshi；10yue，gaojifuzhujiashihegaojiezidongjiashijiejuefangantigongshangdipingxianzaigangjiaosuoshangshi。

linjinnianmo，haiyouliangjiarobotaxigongsiwenyuanzhixinghexiaomazhixingfumeishangshichenggong。

congshichangzhanyoulvlaikan，shangshuchenggongshangshidegongyingshangqiye，douzaigezidelingyuzhanjuleyixizhidi。

jiguangleidalingyudesutengjuchuang，zai2024nianqiansanjidushixianjiguangleidaleijixiaoliangwei38.19wantai，tongbizengzhang259.6%。

heizhimazhinengshicheguijijisuansoc（xitongxinpian）jijiyusocdezhinengqichejiejuefangangongyingshang，genjufuruositeshaliwenziliao，an2022niancheguijigaosuanlisocdechuhuoliangji，heizhimazhinengshiquanqiudisandagongyingshang。

lingjugaogongzhinengqicheyanjiuyuanfabudeshuju，dipingxianzaizhongguoshichangzizhupinpaichengyongchezhijiajisuanfanganshichangzhongshichangzhanyoulvwei28.65%，weidiyiming。

zaishangshizhiqian，shangshujijiagongsijiuyijingchengweizibenqiangzhudebiaode，jihumeiyijiaqiyedouzaishangshizhiqianjingguoleduolunrongzi，ruhezhaodaonenggoumanzuduofangxinliyuqideshangshiguzhi，jihuchengweixuduoqiyeyaojiejuedewenti。

liruheizhimazhinengzaishangshiqianjunjinxingle10lunrongzi，guzhiwei7yimeiyuan；wenyuanzhixingzaishangshiqianjinxingle6lunrongzi，guzhiwei50yimeiyuan，xiaomazhixingipoqianhuodele7lunrongzi，rongzizongechao13yimeiyuan。

dipingxianzaiipozhiqiandeguzhiyehengao，dadaole87.1yimeiyuan。

congtouzifangdeshenfenlaikan，jijiaqiyeyeshi“gezibeihouyoushenxian”。

qizhong，xiaomazhixingbeihoudeyouhongshanzhongguo、kunlunziben、idgzibendengsimujijingongsi，zhongguoyiqi、fengtiandengqicheqiye；leinuorichansanlinglianmeng、boshi、guokaijinrong、qimingchuangtoudengcanyulewenyuanzhixingderongzi。

dipingxian、heizhimazhinengzeshiposhoucheqideqinglai。

dipingxiandetouzifangzhongyouguangqiziben、biyadi、dongfengzichan、qiruiqiche、shangqijituandenggongsi；heizhimazhinengdetouzizhebaokuoxiaomi、tengxun、jili、shangqijituan、yulaizibendeng。

而如祺出行是在2019年，由广汽、腾讯、滴滴dengtouzichuanglide，chuangshilundeguzhiwei10yiyuan。

chuleshangshuyijingchenggongshangshidegongsi，haiyoumomenta、zongmukeji、xidizhijia、youjiachuangxindengxingyewanjiayezhengzaimouqiushangshi。

zheixieqiyezhong，yebufayijingjinxingguoduolunrongzideqiye。lirumomentayijingwanchengle7lunrongzi、zongmukejiyijingwanchengle10lunrongzi、xidizhijiayijingwanchengle8lunrongzi。

jinqi，haiyoubushaozidongjiashiqiyeyucheqijianlilehezuo。

biru9yue，heizhimazhinengyudongfengqichejiuzhinengjiashijiganzhisuanfa、kuayuronghejisuanpingtai、cheluyunyitihuajiejuefangandenglingyujinxingjishuhezuo。

12yue，wenyuanzhixingyuyoubuuberhezuodezidongjiashichuxingfuwuluodialianqiushoudouabuzhabi；xiaomazhixingyuguangqiaianjianghezuodazaojubeishangyeyunyingjingzhengliderobotaxiguimohualiangchanchexingdengdeng。

zairongzi、shangshi、hezuodelangchaoxia，lingpaodezidongjiashiqiyechidaoledangao，dantamenyijiuxuyaojixutouruhechuangxin，bingxunqiushenglu。

02 技术战、高投入，伴随着亏损的生死之战

suiran，dangxiadezidongjiashiyijingrangzibenkandaoleyidianshangyehuadekenengxing，danxingyezhongdejishuzhanhaizaijixu。

dangqian，henduozidongjiashiqiyedemubiaoshinenggouzhenzhengshixianl4、l5jibiedezidongjiashishuiping。

danxiangyaodachengzheigemubiao，zhenggechanyelianzhongdemeiyihuandouyoubudebugongkedejishunanguan。

liruzaiganzhiyulijiecengmian，cheliangchuanganqirujiguangleida、haomiboleida、shexiangtoudengxuyaonenggouduizhouweidehuanjingjinxingquanmianganzhi。

danmuqian，buguanshishangshudenayizhongchuanganqi，douhuiyouyidingdejishuquedian，birudangqiandejiguangleidajishukeyitigongjingquedesanweidianyun，danzaiyuxuetianqitiaojianxia，xingnenghuiyousuoxiajiang；shexiangtounenggoujingzhunbuzhuolukuangxinxi，danhuiyinguangxiandebianhuaerduiganzhixiaoguochanshengyingxiangdengdeng。

zaiaixinpiandeyanfashang，tigaoxinpiandesuanli、gonghao、xingnengdeng，shiqiyedangxiadejishunanti。

tongchang，yeneirenweishixianl2jizidongfuzhujiashixuyaodesuanlizai10topsyixia，l3jixuyao30-60tops，l4jixuyaochaoguo300tops，l5jixuyaochaoguo1000tops，shenzhiyaodadaochaoguo4000tops。

dancongmuqianshichangdeyingyongqingkuanglaikan，chuyushangyongjieduandezidongjiashixinpianzhuyaojizhongzaigaojijiashifuzhuxitonglingyu，keshixianl1-l2jibiedefuzhujiashigongneng。yeyoubufenxinpianqiyeshengchengchanpinkeshixianl3jibiedegongneng。danjulil4-l5jibiedezidongjiashidaguimoshangyehua，haiyouyidingdejuli。

ciwai，youyufenmokuaidechuantongzhijiamoxing，cunzaishangxiandi、zhixingfuzajiashirenwushichuxianmingxianjixiegan，shenzhiyoushihaixuyaorengongjieguandeqingkuang，yincixuduoqiyekaishibujugengxiang“jixierennao”deduandaoduandamoxing。

dancongmuqianduandaoduandeyanfachengguolaikan，zheizhongmoxingyeyouquedian，biruqihuizaiyixiefuzalukuangbiaoxiandeguoyu“congrong”，yinciwushilejiaotongguize，beitucaowei“koufenshenqi”。

weilegongkejishunanti，bushaozidongjiashiqiyeyanfagaoqi，lianniankuisun。

yanxia，sheinengzhangwoyanfadefengxiangbiao，sheijiuyoujihuishixianfanpan。

danzaineizhiqian，qiyezhinengbuduanjiadayanfatourulidu，yinweibujinbujiuhuibeitaotai。

03 淘汰赛加剧，行业玩家还在拼命争取“上岸”

duizidongjiashiqiyeeryan，shangshihuoyichengweilebixingzhilu。

yinweizheizhongrongzifangshideyoushizaiyu，qiyekeyizaishangshishichoujiyibizijin，qieshangshizhihou，gongsihaikeyizaitongguorongzi、faxingzhaiquandengqudaohuoquzijin。

duojiaqiyedechenggongshangshi，yecongmouzhongchengdushangyiweizheerjishichangduizidongjiashiqiyedeguanzhu。

dantiaochuqiyedeluojilaikan，xingyezhongxianqishangshichao，yeyiweizhexingyezhongderongziyijingdaodapingjing，meiyouzaishangyigejieduanbeizibenkanzhongdegongsi，hennanzaixunqiuxinyilunrongzile。

congshangshidejijiagongsiciqianderongzishijianyekeyikanchu，duoshugongsiipoqiandeyilunrongzifashengzai2022huo2023nian。

birudipingxiandeshangyilunzhanlverongzifashengzai2022nian10yue，touzifangweidazhongjituan；wenyuanzhixingzeshizai2022nian11yue，touzifangweiguokaixing；xiaomazhixingzezai2023nian10yue，touzifangweishatealabowangguoxinweilaichengqixiatouzijijin。

lingjutonghuashunifindshujuxianshi，2022nianyilai，zidongjiashilingyupiluderongzieduyou2021niande1592yiyuanruijianzhi2023niande182yiyuan，zhijiesuoshuizhiyuanxiande11%，2024niandeqingkuangyebingweidedaohaozhuan。

chucizhiwai，henduocheqiyijingkaishizuozijidezhinengjiashixitong，zheiwuyihuiduizidongjiashigongsizaochengyidingdeyali。

jubuwanquantongji，muqian，jihusuoyoudecheqijunsheyouzhijiayanfatuandui，huawei、xiaopengqiche、lixiangqiche、yulaiqichedengcheqiyijingkaifachuziyandezhinengjiashixitong。liruhuaweideadszhijiaxitong、xiaopengqichedeaitianjixitong、lixiangdead maxzhinengjiashixitongdengdeng。

dangqian，yeyijingyoubushaozidongjiashigongsibeipuchucaiyuan、gaoguanchuzoudengfumianxiaoxi。

ciqian，youxiaoxicheng，haomozhixingqidonglecaiyuanjihua，zhinengbumenyicaiyuanyue30%shenzhijinban，jianganzhao“n+1”debiaozhunxiangbeicaiyuangongjinxingbuchang。

suihou，haomozhixingduicihuiyingcheng：“gongsizhengjinxingzhengchangdezuzhijiagoudiaozheng。”

lingjujiemianxinwenbaodao，yijiazhinengjiashifanganshangheduokeji，cong2022nianmokaishigongsiluxuyouxiaofanweicaiyuan，2023nianquanniancaiyuanguimoyuewei50renzuoyou。yiheduokejiyue500rentuanduiguimojisuan，caiyuanbiliwei10%。

zhideguanzhudeshi，heduokejiyisiyijingyinnanyirongzierxianrushengcunkunjing。

juwandianlatepostbaodao，heduokejiyuguangqijituantuijindezhongzufanganzaoyubianshu。heduodezijinlianyifeichangjinzhang，zhengjiesanshuju、yanfadengdabufenhexinbumenbingzantingyanfahuodong。

shijishang，shangshuliangjiagongsidoucengshoudaoguozibenqinglai。

birumuqian，haomozhixingyijinxingleduolunrongzi，beihoudetouzijigoubaokuozhangchengqiche、meituan、shougangjijindengdeng。jiuzaijinnianshangbannian，haomozhixinghaicenghuodeleliangbirongzi，fenbiewei2yuehuodede1yiyuandeb1lunrongzihe4yuexuanbuhuodede3yiyuanb2lunrongzi。

zheiyeyiweizhe，ruguozidongjiashiqiyewufachixuhuodezijin，jianghenrongyibeitaotai。

ershangshi，huoxushizheigejieduanzidongjiashiqiyezuihaodexuanze。

congerjishichangdefanyingqingkuanglaikan，jijiashangshiqiyedegujiazoushizhangdieqingkuangbuyi，dandaduoqiyezaiganggangshangshizhishidouhuixianchengxianchujiaohaodegujiazoushi。

birusutengjuchuangzaishangbanniangujiazhangfuchaoguo40%；qunianniandishangshidezhixingkejigujiayezaibannianqijianleijizhangfufanbei，dadao117.26%；heizhimazhinengmuqiandegujiazoushirengranweizengzhang，qiezaibujiuqiande12yue9riganggangdadaogujiazuigaodian，wei38.6gangyuan/gu。

xiangbizhixia，ruqichuxingde“yunqi”jiumeiyouneimehao，bujinzaishangshishourijiupofa，jiezhi2024nian12yue12rishoupan，gujiayijingdiezhi14.78gangyuan/gu，yukaipanjiade35yuanxiangbiyijingdiequle57.78%。

shangshihoudezidongjiashiqiye，shangqiemeiyousongyikouqidejihui。muqianhaizaichongshangshideqiye，gengyaoganzai“julang”lailinqianshunli“shangan”。