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美联储第三次降息临近,明年下半年或结束宽松周期

meilianchuneibuguanyuweilaijiangxilujingdefenqikaishixianxian,daduoshujingjixuejiahefenxishidouyixiadiaolemingnianmeilianchujiangxicishuyuqi。

图源:CFP

界面新闻记者 | 刘婷

suizhemeilianchunianneizuihouyicizhengcehuiyilinjin,lianchuneibuguanyuweilaijiangxilujingdefenqikaishixianxian。fenxirenshiyuji,meilianchujiangtiqianjieshukuansongzhouqi,mingnianxiabannianqikenengbuzaijiangxi。

《huaerjieribao》jizhe、youzhe“xinmeilianchutongxunshe”zhichengdenick timiraoszhouerfawencheng,meilianchuneibuduiyushifouyinggaijixujiangxidelichangbingbutongyi,meilianchuzhuxijieluomu·baoweierzhengmianlinlaizitongshidegengduozhiyi,zheixietongshiyizhiduijiangxichihuaiyitaidu。

timiraosrenwei,benzhoumeilianchudagailvjiangzaidujiangxi,zheiyeshi9yueyilailianchulianxudisancizaizhengcehuiyishangzuochujiangxijueding。xianzaimeilianchuzhisuoyikeyixuanze“sanlianjiang”,shiyinweizhiqianlilvshuipingjiaogao,jiangxidemenjianxiangduijiaodi。danshi,ruguomingnianmeiguojingjijixuwenbuzengzhang,neimejixujiangxideliyoujiangbuzaineimechongfen。

tahaitidao,congzuijinmeilianchuguanyuanyushichangdehudonglaikan,tamenzaitandaolilvwentishidoucaiqulegengjiajinshendeyuqi。

beijingshijian12yue5rilingchen,baoweierzaijinrujianmoqizhiqianfabiaolezuihouyicigongkaijianghua。tazhichu,jinnianmeiguojingjibiaoxianqiangyuyuqi,zheizhongrenxingchaochuleciqiandeyuce,shidemeilianchunenggouyigengweijinshendetaidunulixunzhaozhongxinglilv。“jingjibiaoxianqiangjing,biwomenzai9yueshideyuqihaiyaoqiang,jinguantongzhangshuipinglvegaoyuyuqi。”baoweiershuo。

tongyangzai12yuechu,meilianchulishikelisituofu·wolebiaoshi,zaishujubuchuxianyiwaideqingkuangxia,taqingxiangyuzhichi12yuejixujiangxi。dantatongshijinggaocheng,tongzhangjixujiangzhi2%mubiaodejinchengyoukenengxianrutingzhi,yinweimuqiandezhengcenanyiyizhifuwuyejiageshangzhang。ciwai,lianchu“sanbashou”——niuyuelianbangchubeiyinxingxingzhangyuehan·weilianmusizuijinyebiaodaleduitongzhangshangxingdedanyou。

meiguolaogongtongjijushangzhousanfabudeshujuxianshi,11yue,xiaofeizhejiagezhishu(cpi)tongbi、huanbizhangfujunjiaoshangyuekuoda0.1gebaifendian,tichushipinhenengyuanjiagedehexincpitongbi、huanbijunchipingyuqianzhi。shujufuheyuqi。fenxishipubianbiaoshi,suirantongzhangjixuxianshizhanxing,danzaishichangjiangxiyuqibijiaodudingdeqingkuangxia,meilianchudagailvhaishihuizai12yuejixujiangxi。

meilianchujiangzaibeijingshijianzhousilingchenjieshuweiqiliangridezhengcehuiyihougongbulilvjueyi。jiezhizhousan11:40zuoyou,zhijiageshangpinjiaoyisuo“meilianchuguancha”gongjuxianshidebenyuejiangxi25gejidiandegailvwei95.4%,jiaoyizhouqianshangsheng6.5gebaifendian。

timiraosrenwei,youyumeilianchuneibufenqijiada,duiyubaoweierlaishuo,zulizuixiaodezuofashi——benzhoujixujiangxi,ranhoujichuzhiyinanshijiangfanghuanjiangxibufa。biru,meilianchuzai9yueyixihuiyihoufabudelilvlujing“dianzhentu”xianshi,mingnianjiangjiangxisici,dan12yuehuihoufabudezuixinyucekenengxianshi,2025nianjiangxicishujianshao1-2ci。

jiezhimuqian,daduoshujingjixuejiahefenxishidouyixiadiaolemingnianmeilianchujiangxicishuyuqi。

qiankelifulanlianbangchubeiyinxingxingzhangluoleita·meisitezhousanduiyahucaijingbiaoshi,lianbanggongkaishichangweiyuanhui(fomc)youbiyaojianshizhiqianduimingnianjiangxisicideyuce。“duiwolaishuo,2025nianjiangxiliangdaosancisihushizhengquedexuanze。”tashuo。

deyizhizichanguanligongsizhouerfabuyanbaocheng,yuji2025niandiqian,meilianchujiangjiangxi3ci(baokuojinnian12yuezainei),bizhiqiandeyucejianshaole2ci。gaigongsishouximeiguojingjixuejiakelisidian·xieermanbiaoshi,jinqimeiguojingjishujuhaohuaicanban,jinguanlaodonglishichangyousuojianruo,dantongzhangrengranjugaobuxia。chucizhiwai,weilaidecaizhenghemaoyizhengcerengshizhongdaweizhishu。

tayuji,meilianchukenengzai2025nianshangbannianmeigejidujiangxiyici,ranhouxiabannianqibuzaijiangxi。“meilianchuxuyaogengzhangshijiancainengjianglilvjiangzhi3%-3.5%dezhongxingshuiping。”xieermanshuo。

ciwai,guojisandapingjigongsizhiyidehuiyuriqianyebiaoshi,meilianchujiangtiqianjieshukuansongzhouqi,congxianzaidao2025niandileijijiangxi125gejidianzhi3.5%,2026nianbuzaijinyibujiangxi,zheibitamenzhiqiangujidezhongxinglilvgaochu50gejidian。

huiyutongshihaishangdiaoleduimeiguotongzhangdeyuqi,yujidao2025nianditongzhangjiangdadao2.8%,jiao9yueshideyucezhigaochu0.4gebaifendian。

未经正式授权严禁转载本文,侵权必究。

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美联储第三次降息临近,明年下半年或结束宽松周期

meilianchuneibuguanyuweilaijiangxilujingdefenqikaishixianxian,daduoshujingjixuejiahefenxishidouyixiadiaolemingnianmeilianchujiangxicishuyuqi。

图源:CFP

界面新闻记者 | 刘婷

suizhemeilianchunianneizuihouyicizhengcehuiyilinjin,lianchuneibuguanyuweilaijiangxilujingdefenqikaishixianxian。fenxirenshiyuji,meilianchujiangtiqianjieshukuansongzhouqi,mingnianxiabannianqikenengbuzaijiangxi。

《huaerjieribao》jizhe、youzhe“xinmeilianchutongxunshe”zhichengdenick timiraoszhouerfawencheng,meilianchuneibuduiyushifouyinggaijixujiangxidelichangbingbutongyi,meilianchuzhuxijieluomu·baoweierzhengmianlinlaizitongshidegengduozhiyi,zheixietongshiyizhiduijiangxichihuaiyitaidu。

timiraosrenwei,benzhoumeilianchudagailvjiangzaidujiangxi,zheiyeshi9yueyilailianchulianxudisancizaizhengcehuiyishangzuochujiangxijueding。xianzaimeilianchuzhisuoyikeyixuanze“sanlianjiang”,shiyinweizhiqianlilvshuipingjiaogao,jiangxidemenjianxiangduijiaodi。danshi,ruguomingnianmeiguojingjijixuwenbuzengzhang,neimejixujiangxideliyoujiangbuzaineimechongfen。

tahaitidao,congzuijinmeilianchuguanyuanyushichangdehudonglaikan,tamenzaitandaolilvwentishidoucaiqulegengjiajinshendeyuqi。

beijingshijian12yue5rilingchen,baoweierzaijinrujianmoqizhiqianfabiaolezuihouyicigongkaijianghua。tazhichu,jinnianmeiguojingjibiaoxianqiangyuyuqi,zheizhongrenxingchaochuleciqiandeyuce,shidemeilianchunenggouyigengweijinshendetaidunulixunzhaozhongxinglilv。“jingjibiaoxianqiangjing,biwomenzai9yueshideyuqihaiyaoqiang,jinguantongzhangshuipinglvegaoyuyuqi。”baoweiershuo。

tongyangzai12yuechu,meilianchulishikelisituofu·wolebiaoshi,zaishujubuchuxianyiwaideqingkuangxia,taqingxiangyuzhichi12yuejixujiangxi。dantatongshijinggaocheng,tongzhangjixujiangzhi2%mubiaodejinchengyoukenengxianrutingzhi,yinweimuqiandezhengcenanyiyizhifuwuyejiageshangzhang。ciwai,lianchu“sanbashou”——niuyuelianbangchubeiyinxingxingzhangyuehan·weilianmusizuijinyebiaodaleduitongzhangshangxingdedanyou。

meiguolaogongtongjijushangzhousanfabudeshujuxianshi,11yue,xiaofeizhejiagezhishu(cpi)tongbi、huanbizhangfujunjiaoshangyuekuoda0.1gebaifendian,tichushipinhenengyuanjiagedehexincpitongbi、huanbijunchipingyuqianzhi。shujufuheyuqi。fenxishipubianbiaoshi,suirantongzhangjixuxianshizhanxing,danzaishichangjiangxiyuqibijiaodudingdeqingkuangxia,meilianchudagailvhaishihuizai12yuejixujiangxi。

meilianchujiangzaibeijingshijianzhousilingchenjieshuweiqiliangridezhengcehuiyihougongbulilvjueyi。jiezhizhousan11:40zuoyou,zhijiageshangpinjiaoyisuo“meilianchuguancha”gongjuxianshidebenyuejiangxi25gejidiandegailvwei95.4%,jiaoyizhouqianshangsheng6.5gebaifendian。

timiraosrenwei,youyumeilianchuneibufenqijiada,duiyubaoweierlaishuo,zulizuixiaodezuofashi——benzhoujixujiangxi,ranhoujichuzhiyinanshijiangfanghuanjiangxibufa。biru,meilianchuzai9yueyixihuiyihoufabudelilvlujing“dianzhentu”xianshi,mingnianjiangjiangxisici,dan12yuehuihoufabudezuixinyucekenengxianshi,2025nianjiangxicishujianshao1-2ci。

jiezhimuqian,daduoshujingjixuejiahefenxishidouyixiadiaolemingnianmeilianchujiangxicishuyuqi。

qiankelifulanlianbangchubeiyinxingxingzhangluoleita·meisitezhousanduiyahucaijingbiaoshi,lianbanggongkaishichangweiyuanhui(fomc)youbiyaojianshizhiqianduimingnianjiangxisicideyuce。“duiwolaishuo,2025nianjiangxiliangdaosancisihushizhengquedexuanze。”tashuo。

deyizhizichanguanligongsizhouerfabuyanbaocheng,yuji2025niandiqian,meilianchujiangjiangxi3ci(baokuojinnian12yuezainei),bizhiqiandeyucejianshaole2ci。gaigongsishouximeiguojingjixuejiakelisidian·xieermanbiaoshi,jinqimeiguojingjishujuhaohuaicanban,jinguanlaodonglishichangyousuojianruo,dantongzhangrengranjugaobuxia。chucizhiwai,weilaidecaizhenghemaoyizhengcerengshizhongdaweizhishu。

tayuji,meilianchukenengzai2025nianshangbannianmeigejidujiangxiyici,ranhouxiabannianqibuzaijiangxi。“meilianchuxuyaogengzhangshijiancainengjianglilvjiangzhi3%-3.5%dezhongxingshuiping。”xieermanshuo。

ciwai,guojisandapingjigongsizhiyidehuiyuriqianyebiaoshi,meilianchujiangtiqianjieshukuansongzhouqi,congxianzaidao2025niandileijijiangxi125gejidianzhi3.5%,2026nianbuzaijinyibujiangxi,zheibitamenzhiqiangujidezhongxinglilvgaochu50gejidian。

huiyutongshihaishangdiaoleduimeiguotongzhangdeyuqi,yujidao2025nianditongzhangjiangdadao2.8%,jiao9yueshideyucezhigaochu0.4gebaifendian。

未经正式授权严禁转载本文,侵权必究。