文｜华夏能源网

dianliyangqipinpin“shuaimai”guangfudianzhanzhihou，guangfunianduzhibiaozhengzaijingliduanyashixiadie。

jinri，moutouzishangshouzhongxibeimoushenggwjiguangfukaifazhibiao，jiechuleduojiayangguoqijingwuyiyuanyijieshou。duiyuguangfudianzhantouzidexingqing，youyangqineiburenshizhiyanbuhuicheng，muqianxibeishengfenguangfuzhibiaoyijing“landajiele”，xiangmutaiduo、wurenwenjin。

xibeijishengzhong，zai2024nianxiabannianyilaixiafadexinnengyuanzhibiaozhong，shanxiguangfuzhibiaozhanbibuzu22%，gansudeguangfuzhibiaozhanbigengshidizhijin10%zuoyou；ningxiazegengshijuejue，jinshixiafalefengdianzhibiao，zanwuguangfuzhibiao。

guangfuzhibiaoduanyashixiadiedequshi，bujinjinchuxianzaifengguangziyuanfengfudexibeishengfen，hebei、shanxi、guangxi、hunan、hubei、guizhouyijineimenggudeng7sheng，guangfuzhibiaozhanbijiaofengdianfengdiandafuzoudi，zheiyiqushizhengzaiyuelaiyueduodeshengfenzhongmanyankailai。

cong“fengdiansanxiagongcheng”kaishi，zhongguoxinnengyuankaifadezaoqikeyishuoshifengdian“dangling”，zhizhi“shuangtan”mubiaoganggangchulude2020niandi，zhongguofengdian、guangfubingwangzhuangjiguimofenbiedadaole2.8yiqianwa、2.5yiqianwa，buxiangshangxia，fengdianbiguangfuduole3qianwanqianwa。kecihouduanduansinianjian，guangfuzhuangjijiudajufanchao，jiezhi2024niandi，zhongguofengdianzhuangji5.1yiqianwa，erguangfuzhuangjizhoushengzhi8.4yiqianwa。

neime，ruhekandaidangqianguangfuzhibiaoduanyashixiadie、fengdianzhibiaoshangyangdeyuanyin？zheiyiqushijiangruhezhongsufengdian、guangfudeweilai？zheiyiqushishiduanqidehaishizhangqide？

光伏风电，攻守易位？

jinguanwufaconggedizhuguanbumenshoushangnadaoweilaifengguangkaifazhibiaodexiangjinshuju，danshi，jinlaiyangguoqidashi“shuaimai”guangfudianzhandedongzuo，zuyicemianyinzhengguangfuzhibiaoxiahuadechuanwen。

zheidangzhong，youshulvdianjutou——guojiadiantoudedongxiangzuiweiwaijieguanzhu。8yue27ri，guojiadiantouqixianeimenggudiantougongkaizhuanrangshandongneirentaixinnengyuanyouxiangongsi100%guquan，qitouzideshandong100mwhuyongguangfufadianxiangmu，zongtouzi3.8yiyuan，yuanlaikuangsuandezibenjinneibushouyilvwei10%，jieguogaixiangmu2023nianjingzichanshouyilvjinwei1.8%，shudixiaozichan，gubeishuaimai。

erzaishuaimaineirentaixiangmuqianhou，guojiadiantouhaijianghebeiguyuan、neimenggutongliaoyijizhongqingdexiangmuguapaichushou。daole11yue，guojiadiantoubeijingzhonghelingtannengyuanyouxiangongsigengshiyicixingzhuanrangle10jiaxinnengyuanxiangmugongsideguquan，shejisichuan、yunnan、zhejiangdengsheng55mwfenbushiguangfu、83.9mwdimiandianzhanxiangmu。

shuaimaicunliangxiangmudetongshi，guojiadiantouyezaijiaotingzaijianxiangmu。10yue24ri，guojiadiantouhexiaolechifengshialukeerqinqi40mwhuyongfenbushiguangfuxiangmu。gaixiangmuzongtouzi1.63yiyuan，dangchukuangsuandezibenjincaiwuneibushouyilvwei8.53%。danshixiangmutouzishouyilvzuixinyaoqiu，haishijianyihexiao。

guojiadiantoubingfeigean。2024nianxiabannianyilai，jubuwanquantongji，yangguoqiqixiayiyou30yujiaxinnengyuanqiyeguapaizhuanrangguquan，shejiyangguoqibaokuoguojiadiantou、guojiadianwang、sanxia、zhongguodianjian、zhongguanghe、zhongmei、zhongche、zhongguomeitandizhizongju、dongfangdianqijituandeng。

huoxushibeifenbushiguangfude“fudianjia”yanzhongcuoshang，zaishandongshengyongyoudaliangfenbushiguangfuzhuangjidehuanengjituan，yu2024nianshangbannianzantinglefenbushiguangfudetuijin，zaijizhongshiguangfulingyu，yemingquele“zeyoukaifa”deguize。zheiyizeyoudeyihanhuoxuyiweizhe：shenzhongguangfuxiangmudekaifa、shidangxiangfengdianxiangmuqingxie。

shishishang，2024nianyilai，gediluxugongbule2023nianduji2024niandufengguangxiangmujiansheqingdan。jubuwanquantongji，jiezhi11yuedi，hebei、shanxi、guangxi、hunan、hubei、anhui、guizhou、yunnandeng11geshengfenxiafalefengdian、guangfuxiangmuzhibiao，zongguimojin170gw，qizhongguangfuxiangmuzongjiyue71gw，fengdianxiangmuzongjiyue97gw。

fengdianzhibiaochaoguoguangfu，zheizai“shuangtan”mubiaotichuyilaide4nianzhijian，shangshushouci。erchunjiangshuinuan“shu”xianzhi，mingandeshichangshuju，beihouyidingyouzhemouzhongshangbuyibeichajuedequshixingneirong。

光伏为何开始“占下风”？

zaiguangfuzhuangjilianxu“diaoda”fengdianjinianzhihou，weishenmexinnengyuankaifayezhufangzhongyouguibiguangfu、quxiangfengdianleni？

“xiangmushouyilv”shiraobukaidewenti。moudianliyangqizai2024niannianzhonggongzuohuiyishangfenxicheng，jinnianlaixinzengxinnengyuanxiangmuyoujin40%wufashixianchengnuoshouyilv，bufenxiangmuchixukuisun，shenzhitouchanjikuisun，xinnengyuanyichengxianchu“zengliangbuzengli”jumian。zhenduihouxuxinnengyuankaifa，gaiyangqicheng“jiangdalituijinxinnengyuanshengchanguankongtixiyouhua，suanhaotouruchanchujingjizhang”。

erduifengdianguangfuxinnengyuanxiangmueryan，zuizhongyingxiangqishouyide，yigeshidianjia，yigeshidianliang。

xinnengyuandexianhuodianjiayuzhongzhangxiedianjialiangbufendianjiadouburongleguan。jinru2024nianniandi，xinnengyuanxianhuoquanguojunjiazaiguangfudafadewujianyijingdiyu0.15yuan，mouxibuxinnengyuandashengshenzhipaochule4fenqiande“dibanjia”，zheihaibusuanshandongshengzaigebieshiduandefudianjia；erzhongzhangxiedianjia，xibushengfenyeyijingpaochule0.15yuandechaodijia。

zheiqizhong，guangfu、fengdianliangzhebingfeishi“yulujunzhan”，guangfusuomianlindedianjiaxingshizhielie，kongpayaoyuanshenyufengdian。

zaozai2024nianshangbannian，xinjiangfengdianjiesuanjunjia0.21yuan/du，guangfujiesuanjunjia0.16yuan/du，guangfudianjiabifengdiandianjiadijin23%；gansufengdianjiesuanjunjia0.27yuan/du，guangfujiesuanjunjia0.18yuan/du，guangfudianjiabifengdiandianjiadilesancheng。xinjianghegansudeqingkuanghenyoudaibiaoxing，zaiquanguofanweinei，fengdianzaidianlishichangzhonghuodededianjiajihudouyaogaoyuguangfu。

shangshudianjiaqushi，zaiguangfuzhuangjichao6000wanqianwadeshandongyededaoleyanzheng：2023nianwuyiqijian，shandongdianlixianhuoshichangzaicichuxian46cifudianjia。zuidijiagechuxianzai5yue2ri17shi，wei-0.085yuan/kwh，xiangdangyumeifayidudianjiuyaodaotiefufei8.5fenqian。

dianliangfangmian，guangfutongyangshujilefengdian。lilunshang，guangfuquannianliyongxiaoshishushi1500xiaoshizuoyou，fengdianshi2200xiaoshizuoyou，guangfushishuyufengdiande。ergengzhuyaodeyuanyinhaizaiyu，youyuguangfuchulizhuyaojizhongzaiwujiansansigexiaoshi，yeshiquanwangyongdianxuqiuzuishaodeshiduan，gaishiduanguangfudianzhanpinpinjiedianwangtongzhiyaoqiguangqidian。

zaiguangfuzhuangjichaoguo2200wanqianwadeqinghai，zaozai2023nianxiabannian，guangfudianzhanjiujiedianwangtongzhi，yaozaiguangfudafadewujianxiandianqiguangsansigexiaoshi。erfenbushiguangfudashenghenan，cong2024nianchuyilai，yuelaiyueduodeguangfudianzhanyedouxuyaowujiantingfasansigexiaoshidaowuliugexiaoshibudeng。

fengdian、guangfudoujuyousuijixing、jianxiexing、bodongxingtedian，fengdianchuli“dongchunda、xiaqiuxiao、yedazhouxiao”，guangfuchuli“xiaqiuda、dongchunxiao、wanfengwuguang”。danshiyouyufengdiandechulishijianduan，biguangfuyaofensandeduo，youqishizaixitongyongdiangaofengdeyejianyenenggoufadian，yincizaidianjiashangyouyuguangfu，zaifadianliangbaozhangfangmianyeyouyuguangfu。

新能源开发的未来走向

julejie，suizheguangfufadianzhanbidetigao，quanguoyijingyou19geshengfenjiangguangfudafadezhongwushiduandiaozhengweiguduan，pinpinchuxiandexinnengyuanxianfaxiandianxianxiangyedouchuxianzaiguangfudafadezhongwushiduan。zheiyiweizhehenduodiqudeguangfuyijingchuxian“chaopei”le，youcidailaidexiaonamaodunwuxuzhuiyan。

zaizheiyangdeqingjingxia，jinguandifangzhengfurengzaibuyiyulituidongbendiguangfuxiangmudeshangmajianshe，danshixiangguangefangyouqishiguangfudianzhankaifadeyezhufang，haishihuigenjuxianshiqulixingdiaozhengguangfudianzhandekaifajiezou。

zhengshizaizheiyibeijingxia，guangfudianzhanzhibiaocaichuxianledafuxiadie，tongshizhibiaohaizhengzaixiangfengdianqingxie。

neimezheiyiqingxie，qizhongdianhuishizainalini？

duanqilaikan，huoxuyizhiyaodaoxitongdefengguangpeibidadaoyigexindejunhengdianweizhi，zaizheiyijunhengdianshang，guangfudianzhandeqiguangqidianfengxianzuixiao，qididianjia、fudianjiaraodongyezuixiao。

dangran，congzhangqilaikan，guangfudeweilaizhuangjiqianzaikongjianyirandayufengdian。youyuzhongguode“shuangtan”jinchengshigaoduquedingde，fengdian、guangfuxinnengyuanzhuangjidezengzhangyejuyougaoduquedingxingxing，weilaier、sanshinian，zhongguodexinnengyuanzhuangjihaijiangcong2024niande13.5yiqianwadafupanshengzhi2060niande50yi-60yiqianwa。erzheiyiguochengzhong，guangfudezhuangjizengzhangkongjianyaoyuandayufengdian。jinyi50yiqianwadezhaikoujingxinnengyuanzhuangjilianglaicesuan，guangfuzhuangjijiujiangdadao35yiqianwa。

guangfuzhuangjiqianzaikongjiandayufengdian，shouxianshiyouyuguangfujiangbendesuduyukongjianyuandayufengdian。

2012nian，guangfuzujianjiagegaoda9yuan/wa，nibianqijiageyuewei2yuan/qianwa；erfazhanchaoguoshinianhou，rujinguangfuzujianjiageyijiangzhi0.7yuan/wayixia，nibianqigengshidizhi0.15yuan/qianwazuoyou，chengbenjiangdiyue95%。ertongqi，jinguanfengjizhuangbeidejiageyecongzuichudemeiqianwawanyuanzhigaojiangzhirujindeyueqianyuan/qianwa（jinnianyijiangzhi1300～1500yuan/qianwafanwei）。

qiezaiweilai，bansuizhezhongguoguangfuzhizaochangshangjingzhengdezhububairehua，guangfujinyibujiangbenshitourengranlingli，erfengjijinyibujiangbendekongjianyijingshifenyouxian。

qici，guangfuguangdianzhuanhuanxiaolvjishujinbusudukuai、kongjianda。muqian，youyuguangfugezhongjishuluxiandeqitoubingjin、jiliejingzheng，muqiandeguangdianzhuanhuanxiaolvyijingdadaole23%、24%。weilai10nian，zheiyiguangdianzhuanhuanxiaolvyouwangxunsuquxiang30%，shenzhibufazhuanyejigouyucechengweilaideguangdianzhuanhuanxiaolvhuoxunengdadao40%、50%。

yizheiyangdejiangbensuduyijijishujinbukongjian，zhangqilaikanguangfuzhuangjinianyafengdianzhuangjijihushibirande。zaibeishiweifengdianxinzengliangdehaishangfengdian，qichengbenjugaobuxia、daxinghuazhiwaifengjijishujinbukongjiandebize，yejiangzhiyuezhefengdianzhuangjidechixufangliangzengzhang。

zongeryanzhi，jinguanduanqineiguangfudexitongzhanbixunsupansheng，dailaizhuduowentiyumaodunxuyaohuajie，xianshixuyaoguangfu“kongliang”fazhan，tongshi，xitongyehuizhudongquxunqiufengdian、guangfudeheshipeibi。

buguocongzhangqilaikan，guangfuzhuangjizengzhangdekongjianrengshishifenjudade，rengjiangshiweilaixinnengyuanzhuangjidezhuliu。