文｜时代周报

jinnianyilai，yixianchengshihaozhaichengjiaohuoyue，chengweijuguangdengxiadejiaodian。erzaidazhongshixiandebianyuan，neixiebeitieshang“laopoxiao”biaoqiandegangxuxiaofangzi，quezailingyipiananliuzhongyongdongzherechao。

yijuyanjiuyuanjinniannianchufabudeyifenbaogaocheng，yixianchengshi“laopoxiao”leixingdeershoufangjiagepaomoyijibenxiaochu，cong2016nianchukaishidelasheng，dao2018niandihe2019nianchudegaofeng，zaidao2024nianyijidudehuiluo，jiageyijibenhuiguidaojiankangzhuangtai。

ershoufangpaomojichu，diejiaxiangouzhengceyouhua、shoufubilijiangdidenglihao，“laopoxiao”shunshichengweixunqiuwendinghuibaodetouzikehejiagemingandegangxukedexintouhao，youqishizaifangjiajueduizhiyiranxiangduijiaogaodeyixianchengshi。

genjugejigoutongjideshuju，jinnian11yue，sidayixianchengshiershoufangchengjiaoliangjunshixiantongbihuohuanbidezhengxiangzengzhang，chuangxiajinnianxingao。“laopoxiao”zaizheifenchengjidanzhongbanyanleguanjianjiaose。

10-11yue，beijing90pingfangmiyixiadeershoufangchengjiaozhanbiyue66.3%，gangxurengranzhanjuzhudao；shanghaizongjia300wanyuanyineideershoufangchengjiaozhanbiyue60%，50-90pingfangmiershoufangchengjiaozhanbichao5cheng；zaiguangzhoushichang，shizhongxinlaochengqu60pingfangmiyixiaxiaohuxingchixuchengxianzengzhangshitou，dizongjia“shangchepan”chengjiaozhanbishangsheng；shenzhenzongjia150wanyuanyixiadeershoufangchengjiaozhanbiyue6.9%，huanbizengzhang4.1gebaifendian，zengfujushou。

“laopoxiao”chengjiaoliangzougao，shenzhicuishenglexindeliuliangsaidao——“laopoxiao”bozhu。bushaonianqingrenzaixiaohongshufenxiangzijichaodi、mogai“laopoxiao”dejingyan，yinqidaliangtaolun。ganggangruzhu“laopoxiao”dewujing，fabudexiangguantiezi，liuyanliangduodashubaitiao，tonghaomenzaipinglunqujiaoliugoufang、zhuangxiuxinde。

daodishisheizaimairu“laopoxiao”？cengjingde“lajizichan”heyijiaodongyichichunshui？

投资客“捡漏”笋盘

pingjingdeshuimianzhixia，zhangwenkangnaixindidengdaimubiaochuxian，“zheijinianwoyizhizaiguanzhushichangshangdesunpan，pengdaoheshidejiukeyichushou。”duiyushifouheshi，zhangwenkangyoulianggepanduanbiaozhun：goudezhe、jiagebianyi。

zuoweiyimingcongyeshiduoniandefangchanzhongjie，tagengyoujihuidiyishijiantaodaosunpan。

shanggeyue，heshidebiaodechuxianle。shenzhenluohuyitaoxiaofangziyouyichushou，zhenghaofuhezhangwenkangdeyaoqiu——zongjiadi，yezhubaojiaxiangbishichangjiabianyijiangjin40wanyuan。

“yuanyezhu5nianqianmaide，4.95wanyuan/pingfangmimairu，xianzai3.8wanyuan/pingfangmimaijiwo，weishenmebumai？”zhangwenkangrenwei，“xianzaidexingqing，wangshangqiulirunhennan，danbierenrangchulaidejiushiwoshengxialaide。”

zheihaishiyitaodaiwendingzuyuedefangzi，yinweilinjinditieheshangchang，huxingfangzheng，daichufang、weishengjianheshenghuoyangtai，zujinnengdao4000yuan/yue，zujinhuibaolvchaoguo3%。

“youqianjiushiyaomaifangmaidi，jianglailoushihuinuandeshihouyeshiyoufangyoudideren‘fanshen’jihuigengda。”jianguotaiduozaofushenhua，zhangwenkangbiputongrengengmingbai，“tudijiushishengchanziliao。”

huasuiruci，zhangwenkangyezuohaoleyujingjizhouqizhouxuandezhunbei。tashenqingledaikuan，anzhaodengebenjindefangshihaikuan，fangzuganghaokeyifugaiyuegonglixi，“zukebangwohailixi，wohaibenjin，yihoumaidiaobuzhiyukuidiaolixi，xiangdangyucunlejinianqian。wodeqiwangshibuyaodiechuandijia。”

xiangzhangwenkangyiyangdetouzike，buzaishaoshu。tamenjiuxiangxiujuelingmindelieshou，chuansuozaizhuanqiangbanbodechengshizhongxin，zaichaodizongjiayuqianzaihuibaodeyouhuoxia，guoduanchushou。meiyiciqianyue，doushiyichangguanyuyanguangyudanshideboyi。

zhangwenkanggaosushidaizhoubaojizhe，tayousansigepengyoujinnian“shangche”le“laopoxiao”，“youpengyourushoulegengbianyide，meipingfangmiliangsanwanyuan，danweizhimeiyouwodehao。”

genjushanghaiyijufangdichanyanjiuyuanfuyuanzhangyanyuejindeguancha，shanghaishichangtongyangyoutouzikezhanzaizushoubidejiaoduchaodi“laopoxiao”，“xianzaifangjiabijiaodi，shizhongxinlaofangzidetouzihuibaolvhaikeyi。”

keerruitongjishujuxianshi，shanghaicaoyangdengdianxing“laopoxiao”bankuaizujinhuibaolvpubianzai2%zuoyou，gebiebankuairushibo、pengpu、putuoquganquanyichuandengchaoguo2%，shenzhijiejin3%，ershichangpingjunshuipingzai1.5%-1.7%zhijian。

zhengtilaikan，zhongfangxieshujuxianshi，2024shangbannianzhongdian50chengzujinhuibaolvtongbishangsheng0.07gebaifendianzhi2.03%，jieshulezi2019nianyilaidelianxuxiadiequshi，bingpaoyingdangqianwudaxing5nianqicunkuanlilv。qizhong，yixianchengshizujinhuibaolvwei1.79%。

suizheershoufangjiagetixidediaozhengyijianjielilvdexiadiao，“laopoxiao”dexingjiabiyuefatuxian，yincixiyin“zhangwenkangmen”jinchang。

总价百万“上车”一线城市

chaodi“laopoxiao”debuzhishitouzike。dangtongqinjuli、duikouxuequ、shenghuopeitaogoucheng“bukenengsanjiao”shi，“laopoxiao”youruyibayaochi，jiekaizheidaofuzamingti，pinghenglixiangyuxianshidechongtu。

qunianniandi，wujingzaishenzhenzhumingde“fangjiawadi”bujigouzhiyitao“laopoxiao”——louling27nian、jianzhumianjiyue55pingfangmi、zongjia146wanyuan。“maijiashiyishouyezhu，chengbenbijiaodi，xiangyaozhihuansuoyijiagebijiaoyouchengyi。”

“putongrendeshenghuojiushiweiraozhechizhuxing，zheigefangzigefangmianwodoubijiaomanyi，caishichangjiuzailouxia，xiabanhuijiajiunengshunshoubacaidaishang，zouludaoditiekou、gongjiaozhan8fenzhongzugoule，zhouweishangchaonengmanzurichangxuqiu。”wujingshuo，“sheidouzhidaoyaomaixinfangzi，yaomaididuanhaode，yaomaihuxinghaode，wozheidianyusuannengmaidao60fendefangzijiuhenbucuole。”

jinnian11yuedi，wujingqiaoqianxinju，kaishixinshenghuo。chengshidewanjiadenghuo，yeyoulewanquanshuyutadeyizhan。

hewujingyiyangdejiageminganrenqun，shi“laopoxiao”shichangdegoumaizhuli。

geyanjiuzhiyushanghaiyitoubufangchanzhongjiejigou，zhangzhuzaizhiming“laopoxiao”bankuaiganquanyichuan——zheiliyifangjiadi、diduanhaozhucheng，yibaiduowanjiuneng“shangche”，yincixiyinlehenduogangxuqunti。

laizibeiqiaozhaofangappdeshujuxianshi，zuijinyinian，ganquanyichuanershoufangguapaijunjiayue5.69wanyuan/pingfangmi，tongbixiajiang8.4%，chengjiaozhouqicong5yuezuigaode187tianzhendangxiatanzhi11yuede83tian。

yibankuaineidianxingloupanzhaojiahuayuanweili。zhaojiahuayuanchuyuneihuanhezhonghuanzhijian，ditie、xuexiao、shangchao、yiyuan、gongyuandengpeitaowanshan。zheige“laopoxiao”jiansheyu1973nian-1987nian，zonghushuchaoguo800hu，huxingyi28-46pingfangmiyifang、46-65pingfangmiliangfang、63pingfangmisanfangweizhu。

zuijinyinian，zhaojiahuayuanleijixiyin404renkanfang，chaoguoquyu76%xiaoqu，jinnianyichengjiao8taoershoufang，qizhongzongjiayue120wanyuandeyifang6tao。kegongduibideshi，2023nianzhaojiahuayuanchengjiaoliangzhiyou3tao，2022nianchengjiao1tao，2021nianchengjiao2tao。

“yinweizhengcedejiachi，ganquanyichuanjinnian‘laopoxiao’dechengjiaoliangchixushangzhang。”geyanjieshao，mai“laopoxiao”dedaduodoushigangxu，“xianzaizhengcefangkailehenduo，shangchemenjianjiangdi，danshenrenshiyekeyigoumaiwaihuanneideershoufang，tuigaolechengjiaoliang。”

yanyuejinbiaoshi，shanghaiyouhuaxiangouzhengcehou，danshenrenshigoufangmenjianjiangdi、goufangfanweikuoda，bufenrenqunkanshangle“laopoxiao”，“shizhongxinhenduo‘laopoxiao’200wanyuanzhineijiunenggaoding，danshenrenshiduixiaohuxingxuqiubijiaowangsheng，yefudandeqi。haiyouyileiqunti，yinweizujinheyuegongchabuduo，suoxing‘zuzhuangou’le。”

“zhiqianyifangdechengjiaoliangpianduo，xianzaishoufubilijiangle，dajiadeyusuanhuizaitisheng，youdekenengyibudaoweizhijiemailiangfang，suoyijinqiliangfangchengjiaohuigengduoyidian。”geyanshuo。

“老破小”走出独立行情

“laopoxiao”demeiyicichengjiaodouzaijiangshushichangdelingyizhongkenengxing，zheiyerangershoujiaoyigaochaodieqi。

jigoutongjishujuxianshi，jinnianyilai，sidayixianchengshiershoufangchengjiaoliangchixuzougao，11yuedechengjiaolianggengshishuaxinjinnianchengjiaojilu。beijingershoufangchengjiaotupo1.8wantao，tongbizengzhang49%，chuangxia20geyueyilaidexingao；shanghaichengjiao2.4wantao，huanbizengzhang10%；guangzhoutupo1.1wantao，tongbizengzhang12.1%，chuangxiajinnianxingao；shenzhendeguohutaoshuwei7125tao，huanbizengzhang16.5%，chuangxiajin4nianxingao。

genjukeerruijiance，yiyixianchengshiweidaibiaodedianxingchengshi，ershouchengjiaojizhongzaishichangliangtou，yitoushizhonggaoduan，lingyitoushi“laopoxiao”。dizongjia、gaoxingjiabishididuanshichangdehexintezheng，qizhonghendayibufenyinweixianzhixingzhengceyouhua，rushanghai、beijingdengxiangoudiaozhenghou，bufenrenqunyongyoulegoufangzige，yinci“shangche”huxingchengweiqishouxuan。

beijingfabu“430xinzheng”zhihou，gangxukequnrushidejijixinghehuoyueduyousuotisheng，zongjia300wanyuanyixiadekehuchengjiaozhanbitigao3gebaifendian，xuanze60pingfangmiyixiafangyuandekehuchengjiaozhanbitigao2gebaifendian。

congshanghai“527xinzheng”houershoufangdaikanlianghezongjiaduanjiaochafenxilaikan，200wan-600wanyuanzongjiaduankehuhuoyueduxiangduijiaogao，daikanliangzhanbigaoda57%，erzheibufenkequn5chengzuoyouguanzhuwaihuanwai，gangxushuxingxianzhu。

guangzhouzai9yuediquanyujiechuxiangouhou，zaidabufenquyuchengjiaoliangchonggaohuiluozhiji，zhongxinchengquliwanzouchudulixingqing。hefuyanjiuyuancheng，liwanershoushichangnishishangsheng，libukaishangxiajiu、zhongshanba、chenjiacidenglaochengquremenbankuaidegongxian。“zheixieyi‘laopoxiao’ershoufangjuduodequyu，zaijiagehuidiaodaoweidexingqingxia，xingjiabiyoushigengweituchu，xiyinmaijiachushouchaodi。”

“guangzhouyixie‘laopoxiao’congfangmaidaochengjiao，nengzaiyizhoushenzhijitianneiwancheng。”hefudashujuxianshi，muqianguangzhouershoufangshichangfangpandangzhong，zongjia100wanyuanyineideershoufang，dabufendoushi“laopoxiao”。muqian，guangzhoushoufubilijiangdao15%，zongjia100wanyuanyineideershoufang，shoufuchengbencongjiwanyuandaoshijiwanyuan，menjianxiangdangdi。

shenzhendedijiaershoufangchengjiaozhanbitongyangshangsheng。shenzhenzhongyuanyanjiuzhongxintongjishujuxianshi，11yuezongjia150wanyuanyixiadeershoufangchengjiaozhanbi6.9%，huanbizengzhang4.1gebaifendian，zengfuzuida，zongjia250wan-350wanyuandechengjiaozhanbiyue17.7%，weiliedier；congdanjialaikan，4wan-6wanyuan/pingfangmijiaduanchengjiaozhanbiyue32.1%，weijushouwei，4wanyuan/pingfangmiyixiachengjiaozhanbiwei28.8%，weiliedier；congloulinglaikan，20nianjiyishangdechengjiaozhanbiyue36%。

keerruifenxirenwei，yiyixianchengshiweidaibiaodedianxingchengshiershoufangchengjiaoshangsheng，zhuyaoyoulianggeyuanyin。yifangmian，gangxukequnjiagemingandujiaogao，zaidangqianshichanghuanjingxia，ershoufangyezhudiaozhengyuqi，jiangjiaguapai；lingyifangmian，ershoufangjiayuandiyuxinfang，14gehexinchengshiyiershoufangjiachazhi2024nian6yuemoyikuodazhichao1wanyuan/pingfangmi，ershoufangjiagediefuxianzhugaoyuxinfang，gengshougangxukequnqinglai。

hefuyanjiuyuanbuchongrenwei，chaodatedachengshifangdichanfazhanfanglvedangzhong，chengzhongcunhejiuchenggaizaojiangchengzhujiao。shizhongxin“laopoxiao”zaijiuchenggaizaozhongjiangzhanjuyuelaiyuezhongyaodediwei，zheiyeshixuanze“laopoxiao”zhongzhangxiantourudejiazhisuozai。

geyangaosushidaizhoubaojizhe，mai“laopoxiao”dekehu，zuiguanxindechulefangjiahaihuibuhuidie，jiushiweilaifangziyuanchaiyuanjianhounengfoushunlizhihuan。

duiyudaduoshureneryan，fangzibujinshizhazaizheizuochengshidegen，yekenengshixinyiluncaifujileideqidian。

（应受访者要求，吴静、张文康、葛晏为化名。）