文｜劲旅网

linjinniandi，jinglvjunyuejigecongshijiudianjiamengshengyidepengyoujuyiju。youyujinnianjiudianxingyezhengtibujingqi，yincixijianyishichouyunlongzhao，haozaijibeijiuxiadu，qifenzongsuanhuoyue，dajiayihuiqiazheshouzhitouhubijinnianyejiyouduocan，yihuijititucaojiuguangongsigezhongsaocaozuo，yihuiyoukaishifenxizheidimixingqingdaodishashihoushigetou……

jiuguosanxun，qizhongyiweipengyouajunzaiyouyupiankehouturanfasheng：

“wozhunbeibajiudianzhuanrangle。”

jiudianzhuanrangsuibushishenmexinxianshi，danshiduiyuhenduojiamengshangeryan，wuyishiyigezhongdajueding。yeneiyoushixicheng，jiamengyijiajiudianhejiehunchabuduo，suiranriziyouhaoyouhuai，dandeguoqieguo，sheihuiyishibukaixinjiulihunni？

benzhe“quanhebuquanli”dezhongguorenlianghaochuantong，dajiayizheneranzhihoufenfenquanjie，haishishenzhongweihao。

“我快赔疯了”。

ajunwunaitanxi，zheijigeyuetadouzaibimenfansi，zixifupanzheicishibaitouzijinglihoufaxian，zijishi“yibucuo，bubucuo”：2023nianbaofuxinglvyouxiaofeizuixiongmengdeshihougaodianruju、weizhuiqiusuoweizhongchangangxuxuanzezhonggaoduanpinpaiqianhouhaozidaqianwanyuan、jiudiankaiyehouzaoyujiuguanpinpaifangyigejieyigesaocaozuo、wanquanchuhuyiliaodegaoyunyingchengben、gaobudingdepinpaigongyuliuliang、wanbumingbaideotaliuliangguize、yuelaiyuechenzhongdezijinyaliyijiyongyuandourangrenzhuomobutoudedajingjihuanjing……

“wokenengjiushidajiachangshuodejiucaiba。”ajunxixuediaokan。

shijishang，jinnianshiyijiaqizhihou，guoneijiudianxingyejiangyinglaiyibodaobichaodechuanwenbujueyuer，jiudianpaimai、zhuanrang、huanpaidexinwengengshiciqibifu。zheiqijianyoubushaojiudianjiamengshangpengyouzhaojinglvjunzixun，zhibuguoxiangjiaoyuajunfansihoudeguoduanchuqing，gengduorenzezaiyouyupaihuai。

2025nian，zheixiepeifengdejiudianjiamengshangmendaodihequhecong？

01

“2025nianjiudianxingyehuichudifandanma？”

zheishijinglvjunzuijinbeixunwendaozuiduodewentizhiyi。bijinggenjuhenduojiudianjiamengshangdefansi，zijirujinshenxianyejinitanhendachengdushangyuanyuqunianduixingyeqianjingyudajingjihuanjingdecuowuyupan。

xiangyaolejiejiudianxingyeyudajingjihuanjingzhijiandeguanxi，youyigehongguanjingjizhishushiyaobeijiudianjiamengshangmenmiqieguanzhude——pmi（caigoujinglirenzhishu）。

pmiyujiudianxingyexuqiuchengxianzhengxiangguanguanxi，youqishizaipmichongpo50zheigerongkuxianguankouzhihou（50beikanchengshihongguanjingjiqiangruodefenjiedian，pmigaoyu50shuomingjingjichuyukuozhangqi），shujuyuegao，jiudianxingyexuqiuyuewangsheng。

2024nianguoneipmizai50guankoufanfuhengtiao，10yuehe11yuecaijibenwendingzai50yishang。youyujiudianxingyedefanyingjuyouzhihouxing，yibanzaipmiwendingbaochizai50+jichushangbannianzhihoujiudianocc（ruzhulv）caihuichuxianmingxianbianhua。

congpmizoushifenxi，mingnianjiudianxingyexuqiucesuiranhennanchuxianbaofashizengzhang，buguozhengtixuqiubaochiwending，hexinshanglvxuqiubuhuiyoutaidabodong，danshiadr（pingjunfangjia）huiyanxu2024niandezouxiangchengxianchixuxiadietaishi。

yinci，2025nianjiudianxingyexuqiucedezhengtibiaoxiandagailvshi“occbaochiwending，adrchixuxiajiang”。

womenzailaikanjiudianxingyegongjice。shoudao2023nianbaofuxinglvyouxuqiupenfaciji，zheiliangnianjiudianxingyegongjicechuxianbaofashizengzhang。laizitongchengyanjiuyuandeshujuxianshi，2024nianguoneijiudianxingyezhengtikefangbaoyouliangxiangjiaoyu2019niandehuifulvdadao104%，jiudiangongjiceyijingwanquanfusu。

tebieshijianyuyihoujiudianxingyeliansuohualv、pinpaihualvdedafutisheng，cong2019niande26%yilukuangbiaodao2024niande42%，yihou3-5nianpubianbeigedaliansuojiudianpinpaikanchengshizhanlvekuozhangqi，youtamenzhudaodejiudianxingyexingongjihaijiangchixuzengjia，weilaidantijiudiandefengxianjiangjiada。jijinjianghehuazhuxiangjidacheng“wandianjihua”zhihou，yuelaiyueduodejiudianjituanzhengxiangjiasuxiangzheiyimubiaoqianjin，shoulvrujiajiutichu2026niantupowandian。yilongjiudiankejichenglisannian，qianyuejiudianjin4000jia，kaiyejiudianjin2500jia。

zhidezhuyideshi，jingguozheiliangniankuangbiaotujin，jinguangongjicejiudianshuliangbaochizengzhang，danshizengsuyijingkaishichixujiangdi，zheiyiqushijiangyanxudaomingnian。

yinci，2025nianjiudianxingyegongjicezhengtibiaoxiandagailvshi“jueduishuliangchixuzengjia，xiangduizengsudafufanghuan”。

justr globalxingyeshujupingtaixianshi，2024nianguoneijiudianxingyesandahexinzhibiaoocc、adrherevparxiangjiaoyu2023nianhe2019nian，huifulvfenbiewei98%、96%、95%he97%、99%he94%。

zonghefenxilaikan，2025nianguoneijiudianxingyedehexinzoushituxian“pingwen”。

02

chuleduidajingjihuanjinghexingyequshiyupanshiwuzhiwai，weinengcantouxingyeguilvbeihoushencengcizhenxiangyeranghenduojiudianjiamengshanghuihenfansi。

zaijiuguangongsifuzejiamengyewudebjunxiangjinglvjunfenxiangleyigeyinxiangshenkedeanli。youweijiudianjiamengshangjianxin“haodiduan+haowuye=haoyeji”jiushidazaoyijiahaojiudiandewannenggongshi，yushiliangnianqianchizijiqianwandazaoleyijiazhonggaoduandantijiudian。keguanpingjiaeryan，zheijiajiudiandequexiantiantiaojianfeichangyouwo，dichuchengshihexinquwei，jiaotongbianli；zhoubianjigongliyouyijiazhimingzhutileyuan，keyuanchongpei；jiudiandingweizhonggaoduan，yingjiansheshishuyuyiliu。congfangfangmianmianlaikan，wanquanshuyutangzhejiunengzhuanqiandejiudian。

xianshiquehenhendalezheiweijiudianjiamengshangdelian。kaiyeyinianduoyilai，budanjiudianruzhulvchixudimi，erqieyunyingchengbenjugaobuxia。zheiweijiudianjiamengshangpoyuyalilaixunqiubjunbangzhu，houzhekaochayifanhoufaxian，zheijiazhonggaoduanjiudianwaizaitiaojianjihao，danneibuyunyingyitahutu。jugezuijiandandelizi，zheijiajiudianjingranzaigedaxianshangqudaogenbenzhaobudao，dianxingdepengzhejinfanwanyaofan。

“zheiyangdeanlitingzhefeiyisuosi，quedaliangcunzaiyuxianshizhong。”bjuntanqi，jiudiandequekanzhongdiliweizhihewuyetiaojian，danzheizhishidazaoyijiahaojiudiandejichu，houmianhaixuyaoxitongerfuzadeyunyinglaizhicheng，ruguojinjinkaozishentiaojianhaojiunengzuochuyijiahaojiudian，neizheigexingyezaojiubeifangdichanshangpingtile。

duiyu“liuliangzhenxiang”dewupanshibandaojiudianjiamengshangmendelingyigedakeng。cjunzheiliangnianjiamenglemoutoubujiudianjituandeyigepinpai，hexinshikanzhongqisuoxuanchengdeqiangdadecrsxitong（zhongyangyudingxitong），haochengnenggouweijiudiantigongbachengyishangdeliuliang，yinweizijiyeshigaijiudianjituanzhongshiyonghu，yushijianxinliuliangjiangshizijizuibudanxindewenti。

jieguoqiaqiaxiangfan，jiudianzikaiyeyilai，crsxitonglakuachengduyuanchaocjunyuliao，wulunzijizenmezheteng，jiushimeiyoubandianqise。beibiwunaizhixia，taxuanzecongotayinliu，quezaodaojiamengjiudianjituanqiangliefanduihezuai，yaoqiujiamengjiudianhexinliuliangbixuyicrsweizhu，shuangfangnaodejifeigoutiao。houlaicjunsuoxingbuzailihuijiamengjiudianjituandekangyi，zhuanxincongotagaoliuliang，wentiyouchuxianle。zheiliangnianotaliuliangchengbenyufagaoang，erqieliuliangguizefanrongfuza，zijigenbenwucongxiashou。taxiangguoall inshejiaoxinmeitipingtai，quefaxianxuexidebianjichengbentongyanggao，yishibanhuigenbenwufajianxiao，yifancaozuonongdezijijiaotoulane。

duiyurichangyunyingchengbencuowugujishirangjiudianjiamengshangzhuakuangdeyouyigexijie。djunqunianzaibeijingjiamengleyigejingjixingjiudianpinpai，zhijinkunraotadehaishiyonggongnanti。tayiqianrenwei，jiudiandoushiyixiedijishuhanliangdegongzuo，shigeshilinglaodonglidounenggan。meixiangdao，qiantai、fuwuyuan、baojieyuandengkansijiandandegongzuoyaozaibeijingzhaodaoheshiderenfeichangnan，yaomenianlingtaida，yaomesuzhicanchabuqi；jiudianrengongchengbenjugaobuxia，gangweiquanbuzhaomanchengbenjigao，xiaolvquebujiantisheng，youqishizaidanjizheiyiwentigengweituxian。

yishangmeiyijianshikansidoubuda，danquechengweichuoxiangjiudianjiamengshangyaohaideyibababishou，daodaozhiming。

03

jiudianjiamengshangdejiaolvyejijiudianjituandailaiyufachenzhongdeyali。

ruguowufayouxiaojiejueshangshunanti，jiudianjiamengshangdezhongzhongyalijiangchixuzhuanxiangjiudianjituan。jinglvjunweicizhaoyilongjiudiankejicooliyukailiaoleliao，zaitakanlai，zhenduijiudianjiamengshangshangshucunzaidekunjing，yilongjiudiankejizhengzaitongguosangejiejuefangfajinxingchangshi：

jiudianjiamengshangyaoyankongzujinzaojiahuanjie。shoudao2023nianbaofuxinglvyoulangchaociji、jiudianjituandasikuozhangmendian、xingyechixujujiaozhonggaoduanhuayijijiudianjiamengshangtoujixintaiyingxiang，zheiliangnianhenduojiudianxiangmucongyikaishidezujinzaojiahuanjiejiupaopianle。jingchangchuxianjiudianjiamengshangningkeduochengdanzujin、dafutigaodanfangzaojiayeyaojiamengmougedangxiaremenjiudianpinpaideqingkuang，tamendeluojihenjiandan“guoyingdejiudianpinzhi+yigeremenjiudianpinpai=shunlichengzhangzhuanqian”。

shishishang，yigejiudianwuyedaodipipeishenmeyangdezujin、shihenagedangcihepinpaijiudianyijiyinggaitouruduoshaogaizaofeiyong，shikeyitongguokexuejisuanfangshidechuyigexiangduizhunquejielunde。yilongjiudiankejizhuanmenkaifaleyigeshuzihuaxitongejiameng，bangzhujiudianjiamengshangpinggujiudianwuye，binganzhaojiudianjiamengshangdesuqiuheshiliyangekongzhiqianqizujinzaojia，quebaojiudianxiangmucongyikaishijiunengshixianzhengxiangxunhuan。

jiudianjituanyaobaorongjiamengshangdeliuliangduoyuanhuaxuanze。renheyigejiudianjituanyuanzeshangdouxiwangqixiamendiandehexinliuliangquanbulaizicrsxitong，danxianshiqingkuangqueshinenggouzhenzhengzuodaozheiyidiandejiudianjituanquzhikeshu。youqishizaidajingjihuanjingbianhuanmocededangxia，jiudianjituanyaorenqingzishendingwei，yunxushenzhigulijiudianjiamengshangxunzhaogengduoshihezijideliulianglaiyuan，quebao60%-70%deocczheitiaoshengmingxian。

“womenyijingkaishiyaoqiudianzhangbixuzhangwoduomeitiyingxiaojishu，bangzhumendianzaishejiaoxinmeitipingtaishanghuoquxingongyuliuliang。”liyukaijieshi，yucitongshijiudianjituancrsxitongyeyaotongbuqianghua，gulimendianzhongshibingwajuecrsdeliuliang。danzheilimiandeluojishunxushi，crsxitongdequenenggoujimendiantigongchongzuliuliang，ranhoucaigulimendiantigaoduicrsdezhongchengdu，fouzejiushibenmodaozhi。

liyongshuzhihuagongjubangzhujiudianjiamengshangjiangbenzengxiao。zhenduijiudianyonggongchengbengao、yonggongdiaojienandewenti，yilongjiudiankejiyijingkaifalelingyitaoshuzihuaxitongekefang，jiudianyixianzuifanmangdegongzuojiushikefangfuwu，zheitaoxitongxiangdangyujianlileyigepingtai，meidangchuxiankefangfuwuxuqiudeshihou，yuangongkeyidenglupingtaiqujiabanqiangdan，qiangdaodeyuangongnenggouhuodexiangyingdejiabanfeihuozhejiabanxishu，qiangdeyueduohuodedexiangyingbaochouyuegao，erduiyujiudianlaishuojieyueleyonggongchengben，tishengleyonggongxiaolv。ciwai，zheitaoxitonghaikeyijierudisanfanglinshigongyuyuepingtai，jiudiankeyijianglingsandegongzuoxuqiufabudaopingtaishang，zhiyaoshizhoubianyoupingtairenzhengderenyuandoukeyijiehuoqianghuo，youxieqiangdaohuoderenshenzhikenengshiqitajiudiandegongzuorenyuan，youcijiejuelelinshizhaogongnandewenti，zuidaxiandubangjiudianjiangdirichangyunyingchengben。

zuijinliangnianjiudianjiamenghaichuxianleyixiexindekengzhidezhuyi。

yigejingjizhuangkuangyibandesanxianchengshijinliangbukaolvjiamengmouxietoubuzhonggaoduanjiudianpinpai。yinweizheixiejiudianpinpaizaigaizaohuanjiezoudeshiquanguojizhongcaimaimoshi，gaizaochengbenfeichanggaoang，shoumaifangjiakanqiyixianchengshi，suiranyenengmaidehenhao，danzheileijiudianxiangmuzaiyeneiyougeyouqudechenghu——qianshuiting，rubufuchu，yongyuanfubuchushuimian。

liyukairenwei，dangxiayibanjiudianxiangmuzuihaojiangfangjianshuliangkongzhizai150jianyinei，yidanchaoguozheigeyuzhi，budanjiudianzujinhezaojiachengbenbaozhang，jiudianjiamengshangbixuyaoyinrumiceyewucainengquebaoyingshou，zheibingfeiputongjiudianjiamengshangnenggouchengdandegongzuoliang。

04

2025nian，jiudianjiamenghaishimenhaoshengyima？

bansuizheyipilaowanjiaanranlichang，gengduoxinjiudianjiamengshangzaiyouyuguanwang。

keguaneryan，weilai5-10nian，jiudianxingyeyiranshizuijutouziqianlidelingyu。yifangmian，xiaofeijiangjiyuxiaofeifenjicuishengchupangdadexifenzhusuxuqiu；lingyifangmian，suizheguoneijiudianxingyeliansuohua、pinpaihualvchixutisheng，shichangshengjidiedaishifanggengduoyouzhigongji。

jinglvjunrenweiyoujigeguanjiandianzhideguanzhu：zhongduan、zhonggaoduanweizhulidefanzhongduanjiudianyirangongxuliangwang。2024nianzheiliangdaxifenshichangfenbieyi18.9%he21.7%defuhezengzhanglvlingxianshichang，lingpaoqushijiangzhangqicunzai。

sichuan、zhongqing、yunnanhexinjiangweidaibiaodexinanhexibeishichangjinnianxinkaifanzhongduanjiudianyidantiweizhu，dangdijiudianliansuohua、pinpaihualvjiaodi，zheixiequyupinpaijiamengqianligengda，zhidezhangqiguanzhu。

jiudiantouzicongzengliangzouxiangcunliang，congzhuankuaiqiandeshengyizouxiangzichanpeizhifangshi，kuaisudetouzihuibaolvbuzaishiweiyidezhuiqiu。

“yuelaiyueduodejiudiantouerdaizaishichangshanghuoyueqilai。”

liyukaixiangjinglvjuntoulu，zheishiyigefeichangzhideguanzhudexianxiang，zheipinianqingrendaduoyouzhehaiwailiuxuejingli、youxiejiudujiudianzhuanye，tamenduijiudiantouziyongyounonghoudexingqu，zhuanyechengdugao，fengxianyishiqiang，weilaiyoukenenghuijijiudianjiamenggengduoxinxiandebianliang，zhideqidai。