wen | lvedacankao yangzhichao

编辑 | 原 野

ruguoyigerenlongduanlecunlidejingshui，xiangcunminyimeiping10kuaiqiandejiageshoumaiyinyongshui。zheishihou，youyigehuidajingderenlaidaocunli，tadeshengyihuiyouduohao？

zheijiushibotongmianlindeqingkuang。

“maichanren”yingweidayikanbigaoduanbaijiudemaolijiquzheaixingyedelirun，jihumeiyijiakejijutoudoukewangtongguoziyanxinpianlaibaituoduiyingweidadeyilai。erbotong，jiushineigebangtamenzaoxinpianderen，conggugedetpu，daometademtia，xuduokejijutouziyanaixinpianzhizhong，douyoubotongdebangzhu。

zheizhong“bangaiqiyezaohaoxinpian”dedingwei，feichangxiyinneixiemeinianpaiduijiyingweidasongqiandekejiqiye，yebangzhubotongzai12yue13haodeyigewanshangjiuchengweilemeigudijiujiawanyijutou。liangnianliciqibifuchuxiande“fanyingweidalianmeng”，sihuyouleyigemengzhu。

01 帮AI公司造好芯片

botongshimeigumuqianwanyimeiyuanjutouzhongzhimingduzuidideyijia。

pingguoshoujifengmiquanqiu，tesiladeqichemandajiedoushi，yamaxundegouwuquanqiudouyong，jibianshigaoshujuzhongxindeyingweida，yezaojiuyinyouxixingyedeyingxianglihehuangrenxundemeilichuquanle。

danbotongsuozaideshichangshizaitaididiaole。

tashiquanqiutoubudewifixinpiangongyingshang，anzhaocounterpointdeyuji，botongzai2024nianwifishichangfenejiangdadao24%，2025nianjiangdadao43%。zaigaoduanshoujixinpianlingyujinhulongduandegaotong，zaizheigeshichanglizhishibotongdezhuisuizhe。

tayeshiyitaiwangjiaohuanjixinpiandebazhu。zaizheigehuaweidechuantongyewuli，botongjubeixiangdanggaodeshichangfene，anzhaozhuoshizixundeshuju，botongzaiguoneiyitaiwangjiaohuanjixinpiandefenedadao60%yishang。zaifashexinhaodeshepinqianduanxinpianzhong，botongyeshishichangfenediyi，weiruolingxianyugaotong。

youyubotongdexinpianyewudouyutongxinyouguan，yinciyouyizhongshuofa：quanqiu99.9%detongxinshujudouyaojingguozhishaoyikebotongxinpian。

danwanyishizhidegushibingbulaizitongxin，ershilaiziaidingzhixinpian。2016nianzuoyou，guge、weiruan、yamaxundeyunfuwuyijingjubeixiangdangguimo，houlaiyoujinglileaerfagoudailaideaifengkou，heyuanyuzhoufengkou，zheixieyewuduisuanlidexuqiushipangdade，shimianshangdecpuhegpuweibinenggoumanzu，tamenyoucixuyaoziyanxinpian。

erbotongbujinshixinpianshejishang，haizuoceshi、fengzhuang。xinpianzhizaodewudahuanjie，botongyijiajiuzhanlesange，zheirangtachengweijutouzaoxinpiandelianghaohezuohuoban。

gugezaozai2016nianjiujianlileyubotongdehezuo，tamengongtongshengchandetpuxinpianshigugeyundezhongyaosuanli，2018nianyihou，gugekaishibazheixietpuxinpiankaishiduiwaikaifang，pingguohoulaiyechengrenzijishiyonglegugetpujinxingxunlian。xinpianmengbusidemetayeshibotongdelaopengyou，2022nianneichangyuanyuzhoupaomozhong，metajiushiyonglebotongdingzhixinpianlaigoujianqiyuanyuzhouyingjian。

bunanfaxian，botongzaizheixieasiczhongbanyandeshiyige“funeng”dejiaose。jibianneixietpuduiwaigongying，neiyeshitieshanggugedepaizi，yi“gugetpu”deshenfentigongfuwuhuozheshangpin。dayigebuqiadangdebifang，tadedingweiyoudianleisi“botongzhibangaiqiyezaohaoxinpian”。

zaixiangdangzhangdeshijianli，“bangrenzaoxinpian”deshichangxiangduibingmeiyouneimeda。bijingyingteerdecpu，yijiyingweidadegpucaishiquanqiushujuzhongxindezhuliu。yinci，jibianshikejigongsifenfenjiamaasicxinpiande2022nian，fenxishiyujibotongzaizheilideshouruyezhiyou20yimeiyuanzuoyou，budaobotongzongshourude10%。

dandangaishidailailin，yingweidazaifuwuqisuanlidachengjinhulongduandediweihou，“bangrenzaoxinpian”dejiaosejiukaishibiandeyichangchixiang——zheishifanyingweidalianmengsuoxuyaodeguanjianliliang。

02 来自英伟达的红利

sanjidu，yingweidademaolilvweichizailekongbude73.5%。

zheikanqilaibuxiangshiyijiaxinpiangongsidelirun，bijingdabishouzhuanlifeidegaotongyezhiyouyue56%demaolilv，yingteerzheiyangdezhongzichangongsigengshizhiyou15%demaolilv。maolilvnenggouyuzhibinide，zhiyouwuliangye、paopaomatezheileidingjidexiaofeipingongsi。

yingweidade“heixin”chengdu，kankanmetajiuzhidao。

metayongyouyue35wangeh100 gpu，anzhaoshijiagusuan，metagoumaih100dehuafeizaojiuchaoguole100yimeiyuan。

eranzhaometasanjiducaibao，metazhangshangdejinrongxingliudongzichan，yejiushixianjin、xianjindengjiawuheyoujiazhengquanwei709.0yimeiyuan，xiangbiquniantongqijinzengjialebudao100yimeiyuan。yaozhidao，guoqusangejidu，metadejinglirunchaoguole400yimeiyuan。zheixielirungenbenmeiyouzaimetadezhangshangtingliutaijiu，xiangdangyibufenzhuandaoleyingweidadezhangshang，zhiliujimetayixiecaiwuyiyishangde“gudingzichan”，hetongxiangweilaidechuanpiao。leisidezaoyu，yefashengzaileopenai、yamaxun、gugedengkejiqiyeshenshang。

yigegongtongdeshengyinzaiaiqiyexinliyongxian：bunengzaijihuangrenxunsongqianle。

cong2023niankaishi，jutoumenfenfenshituziyanaixinpian，guge、meta、pingguo、open aifenfenchuanchuziyanxinpiandexiaoxi。duanqineidianfuyingweidadangranbukeneng，danzhiyaonengzaiyingweidadehuchengheshangwayigekouzi，neijiushiweigongsishengledaqian。

buguoxinpiandejishubileitaigao，jibiangaotongheyingweida，yebixuzaiyixiejishuhuanjieshangyilaiqitagongsi。xinpianzhizaojingyanxiangduikuifadeguge、yamaxunmenziranyeyaoxunqiuwaijiedebangzhu。

——zheibianshibotongdehongli。

gugeshibotongdedakehu。anzhaomogendatongfenxishidebaogao，gugecong2016nianfabudetpu v1kaishi，jiuhebotongdachengleshenduhezuo，gugedezheixie“ziyan”tpu，douyoubotongdegongxian。jiezhimuqian，liangjiadehetongyijingqiandaolediqidai（v7）。zheixie“ziyan”tpujibaokuolexunlianxinpian，yebaokuoletuilixinpian，jiyougugeziyong，yetigongjidisanfangshiyong。fenxishiyuji，2024nian，gugezheiyixiangmujiangweibotongdailai80yimeiyuandeshouru。

maile30duowangeh100xinpiandezhakebogeyeyangzhangzhebotonglaishuaidiaoyingweida。zaozaiqunian5yue，metajiutuichuledingzhixinpianmtia v1，jinnianshangbannianyoutuichuledierdai。erqizhongyiranyoubotongdegonglao，liangjiagongsigongtongshejilemetadediyidaihedierdaiaixunlianxinpian，bingjiangyujinnianhemingnianjiakuaishengchandisandai。

zuoweiquanqiuchuhuoliangdierdeshoujichangshang，pingguozaiwifixinpianshangyubotongbaochizhangqihezuo，suiranyoumeitipilupingguokewangtongguoziyanwifixinpianshuaidiaobotong，dantaxianranmeiyounengliziyansuoyouxinpian。juwaimeipilu，jinripingguozhengzaijijixunqiuyubotongdehezuo，kaifashoukuanzhuanweiaishejidefuwuqixinpian，jihuayu2026niandaguimoshengchan。

openaichuangshirenaotemanduixinpiandekewangyebushimimi。jinniannianchu，aotemancengyongyouyigejihua：haofei7wanyimeiyuandetouzijianchangshengchanjingyuan——danzheigeshuzikanqilaijiubuxianshi。zhuirudimiandeopenaihenkuaizhaodaolebotonghetaijidian，10yuedi，openaikaishixieshoubotonghetaijidiankaifadiyikuanziyanaixinpian。

chulezheixiebuxiangfuhuangrenxunqiandejutou，yixiemaibudaoyingweidaxinpiandechangshang，yeshibotongdezhongyaokehu。zongzhi，zaoxinpian，jiuzhaobotong。

zaicaibaoli，botongba“bangqitajutouzaoaiyongdeasicxinpian”yewuguidaole“wangluoyingshou”zhong，jinniansanjidu，botongdewangluoyingshoutongbizengzhang46%，laiziaiyewudeshourudadaole37yimeiyuan，tongbizengzhang150%。

anzhaobotongzijideyuji，dao2027nian，jinlaizisangedakehudeasicxinpianxuqiu，jiujiangdadao600-900yimeiyuan，zheigeshuzijinlvediyuyingweidamuqiandenianshouru——dangran，zheizhishibotongzijideyuji。

03 博通的局限

guoquliangnianli，yingweidadechengjiujueduifuhemayunsuoshuode“nazhewangyuanjingkanbudaodierzaina”。anzhaojprdeshuju，sanjidutazaigpushichangdefenezaodaole90%。

danjinjinyigewanshang，youyaoyaolingxiandailaidegaozhenwuyoujiuzaihuangdongle。tachuxianleyigemingyishangdeqiangjingduishou。

botongdesanjidu（disicaiji）caibaoriduiyingweidalaishuoshilishixingdeyitian，zaibotongaixiangguanyingshoumengzeng220%deyejixia，hebotongceochenfuyang（hock tan）jigaodeyejizhiyin（xiajidutongbizengzhang65%）xia，takaishibeirenweishiyingweidadiguodetiaozhanzhe。

shichangyesihuzheimerenwei。biyu11yuede150meiyuangaodian，yingweidadeshizhizaiduanduanyigeyueneixiadieleyue3000yimeiyuan，muqianyijinglaile130meiyuanzuoyoudexiaodigu。qianbuhuixiaoshi，zhihuiliuxiangqitadetouzibiaode，botongzaitongyishijianshangzhangfuduyeyuzheigeshuzifeichangjiejin。yingweidademianqianzhujiangoulechuleyigeduishoudexingxiang：yibotongweidaibiaodeasicxinpianchangshang，yijibeihouzhichitamendeyingyongchangshangruopen aihefacebook。

asicxinpiandeyoushiyijingshifenqingxi：

jinru2024nian，yejiekaishipubianyucetuilixinpiandexuqiukenenghuixiajiang。biruqianopenailianhechuangshirenilya sutskeverzaibujiuqiandeneurips 2024dahuishangchenshuleyigeguandian：youyushujushiyouxiande，yincimoxingdeyuxunlianshidaijijiangjieshu。aidezhongxinjiangyouxunlianzhuanxiangtuili。erasicxinpiangengjia“zhuanyi”，gengkuaidechulisuduhegengdidenenghaoxia，tayebeiguangfanrenweigengshihetuiliduan。

buguoyouguanliangzhongxinpiandeyoulie，yeneidezhengyirengranshifenjuda。bujiuqian，huaqideduoweifenxishilianhefabubaogaolitingyingweida，tamenrenweidao2028nian，gpuzhishaohuizhanjuaijiasuqizongshichangfenede75%，eryibotongweidaibiaodeasiczhenyingjiangzhishaozhanju25%。erbotongceochenfuyangdeyujishi：weilai50%deaisuanlidouhuishiasic，zhiyuchaodaguimodeyunjisuanchangshang，tamenjiang100%shiyongasic。

xianbutaolunzheizhongyujishifounenggouchengli，lingyigegengjiaguanjiandewentishi：jibianasicnenggoudaguimoqinzhangpudeshichang，botongnengfouchidaoquanbuhongli？

答案是存疑的。

suiranbotongyijingbeiguangfanrenweishiyingweidakenengdejuemuren，danliangjiadeshangyemoshibingbuwanquanxiangtong。

yingweidadezhuyaohuchengheshiweiraocudagoujiandeshengtai，tadailaidetongyongxinghexingnengyoushirangquanqiugexingyekaifazhekeyiyigengdidechengbenzainvidiadechaojijisuanjishangjinxingkaifa。danasicxinpianshizhuanyongde，birujiopen aidingzhidexinpian，kenengjinjintigongjichatgptshiyong，zheijuedingasicxinpianyushengtaizhijiandeguanxihuixiangduigengjiaweiruo，nanyixingchengleisiyingweidadeshengtaibileilaigejuejingzhengduishou。

erbotongdeduishouzaojiuchuxianle，lingyijiaasicchangshangmarvell（maiweier）zaiaidingzhixinpianshangdebufayehenkuai，zaozai2023nian6yue，marvelljiunadaolequanqiuyunfuwulaodayamaxundeaidingdan，bangzhuyamaxunwanchengtrainiumxinpiandesheji。yucitongshi，gugeheweiruanyeshimavelldekehu。ciwai，jinnian6yue，chuangyegongsietchedtuichuleshoukuanzhuanyongyutransformerjisuandeaixinpiansohu，haochengyunxingdamoxingdesuduyuanchaoh100。

erduizheileiduishou，botongdehuchenghebingburuyingweidayiyangshen，henyoukenengxianrujiliede“roubozhan”。

lingyifangmian，suirangugezheileikejigongsi“fanyingweida”delangchaokeyirangbotonghuoyi，dankejigongsiyekenenghuifanduibotong。

duigugelaishuo，yubotonghezuoshengchandingzhixinpianrengranmeiyoubamingmaizhuazaizijideshouli，hekuangbotongdezongtimaolilvzai60%zuoyou，feiyongbingbubianyi。zaozaiqunian9yue，jiuyouwaimeipilu，gugejihuaqiyongbotongzuoweizijideaixinpiangongyingshang，gaixiaoxirangbotonggujiadadie6%。ergugexindeyixianghezuohuoban，zhengshibotongdeduishoumarvell。

gugedengdakehudezheisanxineryi”jibotongdailailehendadebuquedingxing。yingweidabuyilairenheyigekehu，erbotongyijiducaibaozaiwangluoshouruzhongpiluguo“zhuyaoshoudaoliangdakehudingzhidpuxinpiandezengzhangladong”，henxianran，botongdeasicyewuduitoubudakehudeyilaichengdubudi。

eryanxia，botongdeshiyinglvyijingdadaole177bei，yuanyuangaoyumeiguqitasuoyouwanyijutou，rucigaodeguzhidangranburongyixiaohua，dan“tiaozhanyingweidadiguo”degainianshizaishitailingrenzhenfen，botongziranchengshoulegenggaodeqiwang。mouzhongchengdushang，“fanyingweidamengzhu”deshenfenbingbushibotongdexuqiu，ershishichangdexuqiu，botongzhishiganghaozuiyounenglizuozaineigeweizishang。