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guigu“pengyouquan”demingpaiyuanxian:yuhuangrenxungaoguanxi、heyingweidadaxinpianzhan

saoyisaoxiazaijiemianxinwenapp

硅谷“朋友圈”的明牌与暗线:与黄仁勋搞关系、和英伟达打芯片战

半导体的社交战争。

wen | lvedacankao yangzhichao yuanye

bianji | zhengkejun suyang

zaidanrenyingteerceodesannianli,pate·jixingejihubeisuoyoudepengyoupaoqi:qiyekehudaliangzhuanxiangamd、weiruanxuanzeyugaotonghezuo、pcchangshangkaishidazaiarmjiagouxinpian、taijidianyebeita“dezui”weixiequxiaodaigongfeizhekou。

zhongpanqinlidejieguo,shitabujiuqianganggangbeiyingteerdedongshihuiganzou,beipotuixiu。

fengonggaoduxihuadexinpianxingyeconglaidoushiyigeyouguanpengyoudeyouxi——xingyedewanjiayedoubadaliangderenlicailitourudao“shejiao”zhizhong,birutaijidianzai2012nianxiangasmlzhuzi,huodeleasmldeyouxiangongyingquan,gengguangweirenzhidehezuohuobanzeshiyingteerheweiruanzhijiande“wintel”lianmeng,jishiniandehezuorangliangjiazaizhonggaoduanpcshichangweichizhejinhulongduandefene。

xinpianshejiao,huozheshuoshengtaizhongyaoxingdezhijietixianzai2024nianyouaiyinfadebandaotizhanzhengzhong,bandaotidedalaozhijiandouzaihuxiangbaifang,neixiejishuchushendeceomeitianmangyucanjiageleifenghui,jiejiaohuoban。zhengrujiujushangyourenyiqifengfa,yourenchanmeiduixiao,yourenbeiyiwangzaibianbianjiaojiaoyiyang,bandaotideshejiaoyouxili,gezhongwanjiayezhanxianlebutongdeshejiaomiankong。

deyiruyingweidadehuangrenxun,beiquanshijiezhuipeng。manghuorugaotongdeanmeng,sichujubeihuanzhan。shiyizeruyingteerdejixinge,yiranchuju。

01 众星捧月的黄仁勋

2005nian,zai40suichutoudejixingeyanli,huangrenxunhaizhishiyingteershengtaibujuliyigezhongdengjiaose。neiyinian,yingteerhaiyansukaolvguoshougouyingweida,bishideyingweidashizhizhiyouyingteerdeshifenzhiyi。

zaijixinge63suide2024nian,huangrenxunyiyuechengweixinpianshejiaoyouxilidezhujiao——tashenghuoyoudianxiangsongdandanzai2006niandechunwanxiaopinzhongdetaici:“sichuyanchu,daochuyanjiang,haijirenjiancai。”

jihumeigeyigeyue,huangrenxunjiuyaoshouyaofabiaoyiciyanjiang,congmashengligongdaoxianggangkejidaxue,tazhujianqudaimasikechengweixueshengmenxinyidaiderenshengdaoshi。tiktokshangdewanghongyelaicengtaderedu。tadepijiakedouchengweilexindeshishangfengxiangbiao,chongfenyanzhenglenbazhumingqiuxingbakeliduimaikeerqiaodandeneijupingjia:niyoujiyimeiyuanniyeshuai。

buguohuangrenxunzuidadepowerbulaiziqian,ershixinpian。

kejixingyeli,rujinjihusuoyourendouyouqiuyuhuangrenxun。cong2023niankaishi,yingweidadexinpianjiuchengweilekejixingyezuijinqiaodeshangpin。

yimasikeweili,tajihuyizhengniandouzaiweigoumaigengduoh100xinpiansuofannao,jintesilajinnianjiuyaoyujihua40yimeiyuan。masikeshenzhixuyaodiaoyongtesiladeh100jixai。weilehuoqugengduodexinpian,masikehaizaiyuhuangrenxunqiatan,rangyingweidatouzitadexai。12yuechu,masikeqixiaxaiganggangyi10.8yimeiyuandegaojiayuyingweidadachengxieyi,mudeshihuodegb200xinpiandeyouxiangongyingquan。

masikezhiwai,weiruan、guge、meta、yamaxunyezhengxiangdunjih100,omdiajishuzixungongsidefenxishiguji,weiruanjinniangoumaile48.5wangeyingweidadehopperxinpian,ciwai,meta、yamaxun、gugedegoumaishuliangyejunchaoguole15wange。hualezheimeduoqiandetamenbingbuxinteng,masikeshenzhihaiyaoxuanyao:womenweilaihuiyongyouzuiduodeh100xinpian。zhakebogehaijidongrenxindixuanbu,metayongyouqiangdadesuanliqun。zheiyiqie,fangfohuidaolepingpiaogongyingdeshidai:maidaodongxishiyizhongbenshi。

图:按Omdia的跟踪数据,几乎所有硅谷巨头,都是英伟达H100、H200的“头部客户”

kejigongsizhiwai,geguozhengfuyedoukewangyuhuangrenxungaohaoguanxi,yinduzhengfuxiwangyuyingweidalianhekaifaxinpian,yuenanzhengfuyaoqingyingweidajianzaosuanlizhongxin,gedigaoxiaozhengxiangyaoqinghuangrenxunbaifang,ranghuangrenxunjihuchengweile2024nianchuchazuiduodeguigudalao。

zaizheichangshejiaoyouxili,huangrenxunxianranshijiuzhuoshangneige“huangge”,tazuozaizhuwei,meigerendouyi“wogenhuanggegengshu”weirong。bijing,tadegongjiedu,juedinglellm、zidongjiashidengduogezhanchangdejingzhenggeju——ruguoyingweidayaoduiyijiachangshangduangong,neimezheijiachangshangjianghuilijichuju。

buguozaiyouxieshihou,huangrenxunyebunengzuozai“zhuwei”,biruzaitadeshangyouzhizaoshangweizhejiamianqian。

jinniannianchu,huangrenxunzaizhongguodaluniuleyichangdayangge,tuoxiadahuaaodetasuihouqianwangtaijidian,yuweizhejiahuimian。bishidetaijidiandongshizhangliudeyinhaiyoujigeyuejiujiangtuixiu,danren6nianzongcaideweizhejiasuihoujieguodongshizhangdeweizi,tajiangzaixiangdangyiduanshijianlijuedinghuangrenxundeshengyihaohuai。

huangrenxunbaifangweizhejiademudedangranshi“cuishou”。congquniankaishi,taijidiandechannengjiupaiqilezhangdui,anzhaohuangrenxundeshuofa:“xinpianxuqiushirucizhida,meigerendouxiangdiyigenadaoxinpian,meigerendouxiangnadaozuiduodexinpian。”

duiguiguqitadalaolaishuo,huangrenxunshidezuibuqidegonghuoshang。danduiweizhejialaishuo,huangrenxunzhishizhongyaokehuzhiyi。conggaotongdaoamd,zaidaometa,taijidiandechanxianwaipaimanlekejigongsidedingdan。

jingzhongyutaoyanzhijianwangwangzhiyouyixianzhige,2024niandehuangrenxunheweizhejia,zhujianchenglebierenyanlidefanpai。

weilebaituoduitaijidiandedujiayilai,baokuoyingweidazaineidebandaotiqiyefenfenxuanzejishuxiangduiboruodeyingteerzuoweijingyuandaigongdetidaipin。huangrenxunqinzixuanbuxuanzeyingteerdaigong,congerjidukaishimeigeyueba5000kuaijingyuandedingdanjiaojizheijiataijidiande“beitai”,botonggengshizaiqunianjiuchangshiyuyingteerhezuo,baituoduitaijidiandeyilai。suiranquanshijiedouzhidaoyingteerdejishuxiangduitaijidianmeiyouyoushi,danmeiyourenyuanyibajidanfangzaiyigelanzili。

zhuanqiangengduodehuangrenxunziranyechengweilegezhongjiemengde“jiaxiangdi”,weiraometa、openai、amdzheijigegongsidemingzi,gezhongfanyingweidalianmengjiaochachengli。jibianwufawanquandaitiyingweidadesuanli,tamenyeyaojinkenengjiangdiduih100deyilai——bijinghuangrenxundexinpiantaiguile。

02 “众叛亲离”的基辛格

weizhejiahehuangrenxunbeidangchengfanpaigurankepa,dangengkepade,shibeidangchengyigewunengwuyongderen。

patejixingeganggangbeizijigongzuochaoguo30niandegongsi“caidiao”。suiranyingteerdeshuofashituixiu,danjigexiaoshiyihou,jupengboshedengduojiawaimeipilu,jixingeshijishangshibeidongshihuiganzoude,youyutazaogaodeyeji,tahedongshihuidemaodunyijingwufadiaohe。

63suidejixinge,renshengyouyibandeshijiandouzaiyingteerduguo:1989nian,tajiuyishouxijiagoushideshenfenyanzhichule80486xinpian。jinianhou,32suidetachengweileyingteerzuinianqingdefuzongcai。danzaita2009nianchuzouhoude12nianli,yiqiedoubianle。yingteerfangqileweipingguoshengchanxinpiandejihui,zuizhongcuoguoleyidonghulianwangdechuanpiao。pcheshujuzhongxinyewushang,suzifenglingdaoxiadeamdyezaibubucanshiyingteerdeshichangfene。

jixingejiushizaizheiyangdebeijingxiahuidaoyingteerdanrenceo,2021nian1yue13ri,jixingehuiguidedangtian,yingteerdegujiashangzhangle7%,tashangrenlianggeyueli,yingteerdegujiajiudadaole20nianyilaidedianfeng。tachongmanchongjing,huizaihuodongzhiqianzuofuwochengreshen,renmenxiangxinzheiyangyiweijiqingdeceonenggoudailingyingteerzouchunitan。

buguojixingezuizhongquebayingteerdaijinlegengdadenitan。sannianli,jixingelingdaoxiadeyingteerdiequleyibanyishangdeshizhi。

shangrenhoudejixingejiufanleyigeshejiaocuowu:tajujueletaijidianpaochudeganlanzhi。jutaijidianchuangshirenzhangzhongmoutoulu,jixingedetaidu“youxiewuli”——zheifenwulizuizhongrangjixingeshiqule40%deyouhuijihui。

zaijujueletaijidiandetiyihou,jixingetuichulezijideidm2.0jihua——zaicizhiqian,yingteerdedaigonggengduoshifuwuziji,erzheishi,jixingexiwangtiaozhantaijidian,dandaigongchangpangdadezibentouruquechengweileyingteerdezhongdan。

zaisanniandekuisunchaoguo150yimeiyuanhou,jinnianyingteerdeerjiducaibao“zhalelei”——gongsichanshengle16.1yimeiyuandejingkuisun。suihou31%degujiabaodiechengweileduijixingesanniannulidezuidafengci。bibudeyi,zaizhongguodianshangtuichuweishanghujianyade“baiyijianmian”dengzhengcedetongshi,yingteertuichulebaiyixuejian,neirongnangkuocaiyuan、zantingfenhong——anzhaojihua,yingteerdao2025nianjiangcaiyuan1.5wanren,xiangdangyuzongyuangongshude15%。

2024niansanjidu,yingteerzaicijukui166yimeiyuan。beijixingeyuyihouwangdedaigongyewukuisun58.4yimeiyuan,shouruyechuxianle8%dexiahua,jinwei43.5yimeiyuan。suiranqizhonghendayibufenshizichanzhejiudekuisunheshangyujianzhi,danruguomeiyouzhengfu80yimeiyuandexinpianbutie,yingteerdejingyingrengranmianlinzhejudayali。

图:英特尔代工业务营收近三年持续下滑,年均亏损在60亿美元左右

jixingehoulaizai8yuefendedeyizhiyinxinghuiyishangchengren,zijidigulejingyuandaigongdenandu。

zheiweibeiyuyizhongwangdeceo,dashoubiyajingyuandaigongyewu,qinshouweiyingteerwalegedakeng。qiangdaozhongrentui,jixingeyexiangjiyinglailaopengyoumendebeici。

weiruandejudonghuoxuzuirangjixinge“xinhan”。jinnian5yue,yingteerzhongyaodehezuohuobanweiruanzaixinyidaipccaiyonglegaotongxinpian,zaizheichangcopilot+pcdezhanlvezhong,weiruan“beici”leyingteer。congtouruziyuandejiaodulaikan,copilotshiweiruandangxiajueduidezhanlvejichanpin,congedgeliulanqi,daowindows,zaidaooffice,weiruandoubazuiyouzhiderukoudoujilezheiyigongju,shenzhizaijianpanzhongdoutianjialecopilotanjian,zhongshichengdukejianyiban,batakaifangjiarmzhenying,duiyingteerlaishuoshizaishigezaogaodexiaoxi。

zaishujuzhongxincpudeshichang,qunian6yue,dakehugugexuanbushiyongamddefuwuqixinpian。shizhanlvdiyideazurekaishidaoxiangamddexiankahecpu。jiulianyingteerzaicduandedabenyingyouxixingye,qiehuandaobduandeshijiaoyihou,yebeiyibufenyouxikaifashangpaoqi,alderon gamesshenzhihaizhijiechaofengleyingteerhejixinge:“huanzhuangamdchuliqihou,cpubengkuicishujianshaole100bei。”

2024niansanjidu,yingteerdeshujuzhongxinyewushourujinzengzhangle9%,zaitongxingmenfenfenzengzhang100%deshujuxia,zheigeshuzikeyirenweishifuzengzhang。zaijixingelianxufanxiashiwudesannianhou,tasihuyijingbuzaishoudaohezuohuobandexinlai。zheiyezuizhongshidedongshihuipaoqilezheiwei30niandelaoyuangong。

03 苏姿丰、安蒙“拉帮结派”

2021nian7yue,zaijixingehuiguiyingteerdetongyinian,gaotongyeyinglaileyimingxindezhangmenren:kelisidiyanuoanmeng。

yujixingeyiyang,anmengchushenjishu,danzhishaokanqilai,tasihubijixinge“genghuilaishi”——zhishaoduitadezhongguopengyoushizheiyang。zaichurenqctzongcaideneixienianli,tapinfandaofangzhongguo,baifangbaokuoleijunzaineidezhongguokehu。shenzhilian“anmeng”zheigezhongwenmingzi,yeshizaizhongguopengyoudejianyixiaqide,weideshigengfuhezhongguorendexiguan。

xianran,jishuchushendeanmenghenshanzhangshejiao,eryanxiatazhengzaijinxingyichanggengjiannandeshejiaorenwu。ruguobaxinpiandeshejiaozhanzhengbiyuchengjiuzhuo,neimeanmengbanyandejiushisichujingjiudejiaose。

yuyingteeryiyang,gaotongyezaidanyouzijizaiaishidaidechuanpiao,anmengdexinpiandiguoli,jimeiyoushenjingwangluozuiqinglaidegpuyewu,shenzhimeiyoushujuzhongxinyewu。anmengxiangtongguozhongduanjisuanlaiwanchengailingyudebuju。

danzhongduanbushianmengzijiyigerenjiunengzaode,zhongduanxuyaoshengtai,xuyaodaliangdeyingjianzhuangpeigaotongdexinpian,fouzexinpianjiuzhishiguipian。youci,shejiaojiaolvzaianmengxinlikuosan。

10yuexiaxundexiaolongfenghuishang,anmengqinzizaitaishangxuanbulezijidepengyouquan:weiruan、meta、openai,weigaotongxinpianzaiaishidaizhaodaoyingyongchangjing,baokuokechuandaishebei、yinpinshebei、shoubiao、kongjianjisuanshebei。ranhoushiepic games,zheijiayouxigongsizaiqunian9yuexuanbukaishijieshouaiyouxideshangjia。zuihoushitongyongqichehebaomadehezuo,tamendexuqiudangranshizhinengjiashihezhinengzuocang。

——xiangbipenmanbomandeyingweida,anmengduipengyoudexuqiuxianrangengjiajike。

zheiqizhong,aipcshigaotongdangxiashengliangzuidadeyewu。yinweianmengjianxin,xiayidaiaipcjiangchengweixingyedezhuanzhedian,gaotongzaiqizhongdeyoushijuda。

tadediqilaizitaderenmai——weiruan。zai“beici”yingteerhou,weiruanxuanzelearmzhenyingdegaotong,zuoweiziji“copilot+pc”dehezuohuobanzhiyi,binglianxutuichuleduokuanchanpin。zaianmengkanlai,ruguoweilai3niannei,copilot+pcdefenenenggouchaoguo50%,neijiushigaotongwanmeidejiyu。

weiruanzhiwai,anmengyezaixunzhaotayingyongduandehuoban,zhengge2024nian,anmengjihuzhaobianlesuoyoutoubupcchangjia,lianxiang、daierfenfenbenxiangarmzhenying。

ruanjianduanzhichi,yingyongduanyuanyidazai,anmengdeshejiaojiaolvyijinghuanjielebushao。

zaixinpianshejiaodewutaishang,haiyouyigerenheanmengyiyangbanyanzhe“sichujingjiu”dejiaose——jiyutuozhanyewushengtaidesuzifeng。

zicongjixinge“youxiewuli”demaofanhou,amdyutaijidiandehezuoyulaiyuduo,tamengongtongyanfadejianduanxinpian,rangamdzaishujuzhongxinhexiaofeizheliangduanqinshizheyingteerdefene,zheishijixingezhizhangsannianliyingteershouruchuxianbodongdezuizhijieyuanyin。

yanxia,suzifenghaizaijiejiaoxindepengyou,shitunadaoyizhangaidechuanpiao。

bujiuqian,suzifengganggangfanboleanmeng:zaitakanlai,amddenpubigaotongdegenggaoxiao。suzifengtongyanghuodeleweiruandezhichi。jinnian6yue,weiruanzhangmenrennadelaqinziweisuzifengzhantai,fabuleamd ruilong ai 300xinpian,weiruanrenweizheikuanchuliqidexingnengyijingchaoguolecopilot+pcdeyaoqiu。

yingyongduan,suzifengtongyangbuqueshaohuoban,huashuo、weixingxiangjifabuledazaiai 300xinpiandeaipc——zuolejishinianyouxixinpian,amdbuquezheigexingyedepengyou。

weileduikanggaotong,suzifengshenzhiyuzijishinianlaizuidadeduishouhezuo,zaixiyatudelianxiangdahuishang,suzifengyujixingeqinziwoshou:chenglilex86shengtaixitongzixunxiaozu,shituduikangyigaotongweishoudearmzhenying。suzifenghejixingedouqingchu,yingteerheamdzhijianzhishichangshangzhizheng,danruguox86zhenyingshibai,liangjiadoujiangshiququanbujihui。

buguozaibandaotideshijieli,hezuozhishizanshide。zhengruweiruanheyingteerzhijiande“beici”,dongshihuiduigongzuo30niandejixingezhijiepaoqi,zhiyouliyicaishiyonghengde。

04 奥特曼、扎克伯格“反水”

zaijixingenianqingdeshihou,kehumenhaidouhen“zhongcheng”。

pcchangshangmeiniangongxianshubaiyimeiyuanjiyingteer,jibianshidaier、lianxiangzheiyangdejutou,yebugan“wangyi”ziyancpu。dandaolejixinge60suideshihou,jihusuoyouyingyongchangshangdouzaishituziyanxinpian,shuaidiaoduixinpianchangshangdeyilai。

sanjidu,yingweidademaolilvweichizailekongbude73.5%。tongweifablessshengyidegaotong,maolilvyezhiyouyue56%。zuoweiyijiaxinpianchangshang,yingweidademaolilvyijingbijinlewuliangyezheiyangdezhongguobaijiuchangshang。huangrenxunzijideyaobaoyeguleqilai,jinnianersanjidu,huangrenxunfengkuangtaoxian6yimeiyuan。

图:作为硅谷科技巨头,英伟达的毛利更接近于中国白酒品牌五粮液

zuinanshouderen,wuyishineixiejihuangrenxuntaoqianderen。

zaisamuaotemandeshijiaolaikan,yingweidadecaibaobingburangrenkaixin。mingmingzijicaishizheichangailangchaodezhijietuidongzhe,fandaoshihuangrenxunsichujirenjiancai。yingweidazhuandepenmanboman,zijideopenaiquechichibunengyingli,zuixindeyingliyuqiyijingyiganzizhidaole2029nian——xianran,openaideshangyemoshibutaihao,zhuanqianfeijing,taojiyingweidadefeiyongquebunengshao。

奥特曼很难不反思。

huangrenxunshiaotemande“haopengyou”,jinnian4yue,quanqiudiyitaih200jiushiyouhuangrenxunqinzisongdaoaotemanbangongshide,8nianqian,huangrenxunhaiqinzixiangopenaizengsonglequanqiudiyitaidgx-1。zaibandaotide“jiuju”li,huangrenxunheaotemanshinengdanduchuxianzaidierchangbanyeshaokaojulidehaoxiongdi。

danzuoshengyi,meirenxihuanshouzhiyuren,aotemanzhengzainulibaituoduilaohuangdeyilai。

jinniannianchu,aotemandasuanyutaijidianhezuojianchang——chengbenshi7wanyimeiyuan。tengxunkejizaiwenzhang《“shaoguang”70000yimeiyuan,openaiyuyingweida、taijidianweidi》zhongjisuanguo,zaijianchang、shuidianziyuan、yanfafeiyongdeleijixia,jibianzhendetouru7wanyimeiyuan,8nianbanjiuhuihuaguang,erhuibaozhiyishi:dezuiquanqiudexinpianqiye。

daigongdezhongzichanrangopen aiwangerquebu,danaotemanzaoxinpiandejuexinrengranjianding,bujiuqian,aotemanqinzixianggudongyoushuotouzirain ai,zheishiyijiaxinxingdebandaotizhizaoshang,jurain aizijideshuofa,qixinpianbiyingweidadexinpiangengjieneng、gengqiangda。

zaiguigu,jihuangrenxunjiaoqianzuiduodehaibushiaoteman,zhakebogebitahuadegengduo。

metashichiyouyingweidah100xinpianzuiduodeqiyezhiyi,jibiananzhao3wanmeiyuandezuidijiajisuan,metagoumaih100dehuafeiyechaoguole100yimeiyuan。erjinniansanjidu,metadejinglirunyezhiyou156yimeiyuan,facebookhaoburongyizhuandeguanggaofei,xiangdangyibufensuizhehuangrenxundetaoxianchuaidaolelaohuangjiadeyaobaoli。

zhakebogeyebuxiangyizhifulaohuangqian,jinnian4yue,metafabulequanxinbanbendemtiaxinpian,zheikuanxinpianyoutaijidiandaigong,zhuanmenweiaixunlianhetuiligongzuoshejidedingzhi。zaiaryanjingdengxiaofeichanpinshang,metayeshituyiziyanxinpianqudaigaotong,buguojinnian8yue,zheiyijihuabeiquxiao。

zuoweixinpianxingyedemenwaihan,zhakebogeheaotemanshidanlibo,queshaopengyou。danhaochushi,tamenzijibianyongyouzuidadeyingyongchangjing——gpthellama3。tamenbuxuyaoxianggaotongheamdyiyangdaochulanke,dajianyingyongshengtai,yinweitamenzijijiushishengtai。yushi,zheichangshejiaoyouxiyejianhualexuduo,taijidiandedaigongzhiwai,guigujutouxuyaojiejuedezhiyoushejiwenti:botongnenggoubangdaotamen。

zheijiaasicxinpianchangshangzaiguoqulianggejiaoyiriligujiabaozhangyue40%,yijingjishenwanyimeiyuanjulebu,meta、pingguo、openaidoushitadehezuohuoban。

botongzhiwai,haiyouetchedzheiyangdechuangyegongsituichusohuzheiyangdetransformerzhuanyongxinpian。

zaiaixinpiandelingyigezuidadeyingyongchangjing——xinnengyuanqichexingyeli,yeyouxuduorenbaozheheaotemanyiyangdexiangfa。

2024nian7yue,yulaishoukeshenjinx9031liupianchenggong。hexiaopengzai8yuefendeshizhounianfabuhuishangxuanbuletulingaixinpian,tongyangyoutaijidiandaigong,anzhaohexiaopeng11yuedeshuofa,zheikuanxinpianyijingpaotonglezhijiagongneng。jiulianyixiang“koumen”delixiang,yebeibaochuzhengzaijiakuaizizhuyanfazhijiasoc。

mianduizheixieaixinpiandetiaozhanzhe,yingweidabijingyongyouzheweiraocudajianlidejianshishengtai,zheitiaoyouquanqiuwushu“pengyou”yongshijiniandazaodehuchenghe,xianrannanyibeiyixiesongsandelianmengchongpo,danziyanxinpiandebuduanyongxian,yewuyizaiyingweidadehuchenghezhiwaidazaozhexindeshengtai。

tengxunkeji、xinchaoiclianhetuichude《zhong、meijutouziyanxinpian“weijiao”yingweida》yiwenzhongtidao:“suizheyunchangzaishujuzhongxinpeibeiziyanxinpian,tongshikaifahenduodicengzhongjianjianheerjinzhifanyigongneng,bangzhukehuqianyizhizijiashengtai,duicudachengxudedengjiajianrongchengduhuigenggao,dujiadeyilaichengduhuizhujianjianqing。”

zaiyingyongzheitou,xiangbiyushangshuchangshangdezheteng,masikexiandeyichangxiaoting。suirantesilazaojiudazaileziyandefsdxinpian,danjiezhimuqian,tadexaimeiyouchuanchurenheziyanxinpiandexiaoxi。

xiangfan,tayizhixiaoxinweihuzheyuhuangrenxundeguanxi,yanxia,tazhengzaiyuyingweidashangtao,rangxaijieshouyingweidadetouzi——mudexianeryijian,xinpiangongyingshangshangyouyixieyouxianheqingxie。

zaikeyujiandejianglai,masikerengranxuyaoweihuhaohehuangrenxundeguanxi,suiranspace xjihuyiyijizhiligaibianleshangyehangkongshi,tesilajihuzaisuoyouguanjianjishushangdoushixianleziyan,danzaibandaotideshijieli,meiyoupengyoudezhichi,hennanwandezhuan。yijingchujudejixinge,kendingzuimingbaizheigedaoli。

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硅谷“朋友圈”的明牌与暗线:与黄仁勋搞关系、和英伟达打芯片战

半导体的社交战争。

wen | lvedacankao yangzhichao yuanye

bianji | zhengkejun suyang

zaidanrenyingteerceodesannianli,pate·jixingejihubeisuoyoudepengyoupaoqi:qiyekehudaliangzhuanxiangamd、weiruanxuanzeyugaotonghezuo、pcchangshangkaishidazaiarmjiagouxinpian、taijidianyebeita“dezui”weixiequxiaodaigongfeizhekou。

zhongpanqinlidejieguo,shitabujiuqianganggangbeiyingteerdedongshihuiganzou,beipotuixiu。

fengonggaoduxihuadexinpianxingyeconglaidoushiyigeyouguanpengyoudeyouxi——xingyedewanjiayedoubadaliangderenlicailitourudao“shejiao”zhizhong,birutaijidianzai2012nianxiangasmlzhuzi,huodeleasmldeyouxiangongyingquan,gengguangweirenzhidehezuohuobanzeshiyingteerheweiruanzhijiande“wintel”lianmeng,jishiniandehezuorangliangjiazaizhonggaoduanpcshichangweichizhejinhulongduandefene。

xinpianshejiao,huozheshuoshengtaizhongyaoxingdezhijietixianzai2024nianyouaiyinfadebandaotizhanzhengzhong,bandaotidedalaozhijiandouzaihuxiangbaifang,neixiejishuchushendeceomeitianmangyucanjiageleifenghui,jiejiaohuoban。zhengrujiujushangyourenyiqifengfa,yourenchanmeiduixiao,yourenbeiyiwangzaibianbianjiaojiaoyiyang,bandaotideshejiaoyouxili,gezhongwanjiayezhanxianlebutongdeshejiaomiankong。

deyiruyingweidadehuangrenxun,beiquanshijiezhuipeng。manghuorugaotongdeanmeng,sichujubeihuanzhan。shiyizeruyingteerdejixinge,yiranchuju。

01 众星捧月的黄仁勋

2005nian,zai40suichutoudejixingeyanli,huangrenxunhaizhishiyingteershengtaibujuliyigezhongdengjiaose。neiyinian,yingteerhaiyansukaolvguoshougouyingweida,bishideyingweidashizhizhiyouyingteerdeshifenzhiyi。

zaijixinge63suide2024nian,huangrenxunyiyuechengweixinpianshejiaoyouxilidezhujiao——tashenghuoyoudianxiangsongdandanzai2006niandechunwanxiaopinzhongdetaici:“sichuyanchu,daochuyanjiang,haijirenjiancai。”

jihumeigeyigeyue,huangrenxunjiuyaoshouyaofabiaoyiciyanjiang,congmashengligongdaoxianggangkejidaxue,tazhujianqudaimasikechengweixueshengmenxinyidaiderenshengdaoshi。tiktokshangdewanghongyelaicengtaderedu。tadepijiakedouchengweilexindeshishangfengxiangbiao,chongfenyanzhenglenbazhumingqiuxingbakeliduimaikeerqiaodandeneijupingjia:niyoujiyimeiyuanniyeshuai。

buguohuangrenxunzuidadepowerbulaiziqian,ershixinpian。

kejixingyeli,rujinjihusuoyourendouyouqiuyuhuangrenxun。cong2023niankaishi,yingweidadexinpianjiuchengweilekejixingyezuijinqiaodeshangpin。

yimasikeweili,tajihuyizhengniandouzaiweigoumaigengduoh100xinpiansuofannao,jintesilajinnianjiuyaoyujihua40yimeiyuan。masikeshenzhixuyaodiaoyongtesiladeh100jixai。weilehuoqugengduodexinpian,masikehaizaiyuhuangrenxunqiatan,rangyingweidatouzitadexai。12yuechu,masikeqixiaxaiganggangyi10.8yimeiyuandegaojiayuyingweidadachengxieyi,mudeshihuodegb200xinpiandeyouxiangongyingquan。

masikezhiwai,weiruan、guge、meta、yamaxunyezhengxiangdunjih100,omdiajishuzixungongsidefenxishiguji,weiruanjinniangoumaile48.5wangeyingweidadehopperxinpian,ciwai,meta、yamaxun、gugedegoumaishuliangyejunchaoguole15wange。hualezheimeduoqiandetamenbingbuxinteng,masikeshenzhihaiyaoxuanyao:womenweilaihuiyongyouzuiduodeh100xinpian。zhakebogehaijidongrenxindixuanbu,metayongyouqiangdadesuanliqun。zheiyiqie,fangfohuidaolepingpiaogongyingdeshidai:maidaodongxishiyizhongbenshi。

图:按Omdia的跟踪数据,几乎所有硅谷巨头,都是英伟达H100、H200的“头部客户”

kejigongsizhiwai,geguozhengfuyedoukewangyuhuangrenxungaohaoguanxi,yinduzhengfuxiwangyuyingweidalianhekaifaxinpian,yuenanzhengfuyaoqingyingweidajianzaosuanlizhongxin,gedigaoxiaozhengxiangyaoqinghuangrenxunbaifang,ranghuangrenxunjihuchengweile2024nianchuchazuiduodeguigudalao。

zaizheichangshejiaoyouxili,huangrenxunxianranshijiuzhuoshangneige“huangge”,tazuozaizhuwei,meigerendouyi“wogenhuanggegengshu”weirong。bijing,tadegongjiedu,juedinglellm、zidongjiashidengduogezhanchangdejingzhenggeju——ruguoyingweidayaoduiyijiachangshangduangong,neimezheijiachangshangjianghuilijichuju。

buguozaiyouxieshihou,huangrenxunyebunengzuozai“zhuwei”,biruzaitadeshangyouzhizaoshangweizhejiamianqian。

jinniannianchu,huangrenxunzaizhongguodaluniuleyichangdayangge,tuoxiadahuaaodetasuihouqianwangtaijidian,yuweizhejiahuimian。bishidetaijidiandongshizhangliudeyinhaiyoujigeyuejiujiangtuixiu,danren6nianzongcaideweizhejiasuihoujieguodongshizhangdeweizi,tajiangzaixiangdangyiduanshijianlijuedinghuangrenxundeshengyihaohuai。

huangrenxunbaifangweizhejiademudedangranshi“cuishou”。congquniankaishi,taijidiandechannengjiupaiqilezhangdui,anzhaohuangrenxundeshuofa:“xinpianxuqiushirucizhida,meigerendouxiangdiyigenadaoxinpian,meigerendouxiangnadaozuiduodexinpian。”

duiguiguqitadalaolaishuo,huangrenxunshidezuibuqidegonghuoshang。danduiweizhejialaishuo,huangrenxunzhishizhongyaokehuzhiyi。conggaotongdaoamd,zaidaometa,taijidiandechanxianwaipaimanlekejigongsidedingdan。

jingzhongyutaoyanzhijianwangwangzhiyouyixianzhige,2024niandehuangrenxunheweizhejia,zhujianchenglebierenyanlidefanpai。

weilebaituoduitaijidiandedujiayilai,baokuoyingweidazaineidebandaotiqiyefenfenxuanzejishuxiangduiboruodeyingteerzuoweijingyuandaigongdetidaipin。huangrenxunqinzixuanbuxuanzeyingteerdaigong,congerjidukaishimeigeyueba5000kuaijingyuandedingdanjiaojizheijiataijidiande“beitai”,botonggengshizaiqunianjiuchangshiyuyingteerhezuo,baituoduitaijidiandeyilai。suiranquanshijiedouzhidaoyingteerdejishuxiangduitaijidianmeiyouyoushi,danmeiyourenyuanyibajidanfangzaiyigelanzili。

zhuanqiangengduodehuangrenxunziranyechengweilegezhongjiemengde“jiaxiangdi”,weiraometa、openai、amdzheijigegongsidemingzi,gezhongfanyingweidalianmengjiaochachengli。jibianwufawanquandaitiyingweidadesuanli,tamenyeyaojinkenengjiangdiduih100deyilai——bijinghuangrenxundexinpiantaiguile。

02 “众叛亲离”的基辛格

weizhejiahehuangrenxunbeidangchengfanpaigurankepa,dangengkepade,shibeidangchengyigewunengwuyongderen。

patejixingeganggangbeizijigongzuochaoguo30niandegongsi“caidiao”。suiranyingteerdeshuofashituixiu,danjigexiaoshiyihou,jupengboshedengduojiawaimeipilu,jixingeshijishangshibeidongshihuiganzoude,youyutazaogaodeyeji,tahedongshihuidemaodunyijingwufadiaohe。

63suidejixinge,renshengyouyibandeshijiandouzaiyingteerduguo:1989nian,tajiuyishouxijiagoushideshenfenyanzhichule80486xinpian。jinianhou,32suidetachengweileyingteerzuinianqingdefuzongcai。danzaita2009nianchuzouhoude12nianli,yiqiedoubianle。yingteerfangqileweipingguoshengchanxinpiandejihui,zuizhongcuoguoleyidonghulianwangdechuanpiao。pcheshujuzhongxinyewushang,suzifenglingdaoxiadeamdyezaibubucanshiyingteerdeshichangfene。

jixingejiushizaizheiyangdebeijingxiahuidaoyingteerdanrenceo,2021nian1yue13ri,jixingehuiguidedangtian,yingteerdegujiashangzhangle7%,tashangrenlianggeyueli,yingteerdegujiajiudadaole20nianyilaidedianfeng。tachongmanchongjing,huizaihuodongzhiqianzuofuwochengreshen,renmenxiangxinzheiyangyiweijiqingdeceonenggoudailingyingteerzouchunitan。

buguojixingezuizhongquebayingteerdaijinlegengdadenitan。sannianli,jixingelingdaoxiadeyingteerdiequleyibanyishangdeshizhi。

shangrenhoudejixingejiufanleyigeshejiaocuowu:tajujueletaijidianpaochudeganlanzhi。jutaijidianchuangshirenzhangzhongmoutoulu,jixingedetaidu“youxiewuli”——zheifenwulizuizhongrangjixingeshiqule40%deyouhuijihui。

zaijujueletaijidiandetiyihou,jixingetuichulezijideidm2.0jihua——zaicizhiqian,yingteerdedaigonggengduoshifuwuziji,erzheishi,jixingexiwangtiaozhantaijidian,dandaigongchangpangdadezibentouruquechengweileyingteerdezhongdan。

zaisanniandekuisunchaoguo150yimeiyuanhou,jinnianyingteerdeerjiducaibao“zhalelei”——gongsichanshengle16.1yimeiyuandejingkuisun。suihou31%degujiabaodiechengweileduijixingesanniannulidezuidafengci。bibudeyi,zaizhongguodianshangtuichuweishanghujianyade“baiyijianmian”dengzhengcedetongshi,yingteertuichulebaiyixuejian,neirongnangkuocaiyuan、zantingfenhong——anzhaojihua,yingteerdao2025nianjiangcaiyuan1.5wanren,xiangdangyuzongyuangongshude15%。

2024niansanjidu,yingteerzaicijukui166yimeiyuan。beijixingeyuyihouwangdedaigongyewukuisun58.4yimeiyuan,shouruyechuxianle8%dexiahua,jinwei43.5yimeiyuan。suiranqizhonghendayibufenshizichanzhejiudekuisunheshangyujianzhi,danruguomeiyouzhengfu80yimeiyuandexinpianbutie,yingteerdejingyingrengranmianlinzhejudayali。

图:英特尔代工业务营收近三年持续下滑,年均亏损在60亿美元左右

jixingehoulaizai8yuefendedeyizhiyinxinghuiyishangchengren,zijidigulejingyuandaigongdenandu。

zheiweibeiyuyizhongwangdeceo,dashoubiyajingyuandaigongyewu,qinshouweiyingteerwalegedakeng。qiangdaozhongrentui,jixingeyexiangjiyinglailaopengyoumendebeici。

weiruandejudonghuoxuzuirangjixinge“xinhan”。jinnian5yue,yingteerzhongyaodehezuohuobanweiruanzaixinyidaipccaiyonglegaotongxinpian,zaizheichangcopilot+pcdezhanlvezhong,weiruan“beici”leyingteer。congtouruziyuandejiaodulaikan,copilotshiweiruandangxiajueduidezhanlvejichanpin,congedgeliulanqi,daowindows,zaidaooffice,weiruandoubazuiyouzhiderukoudoujilezheiyigongju,shenzhizaijianpanzhongdoutianjialecopilotanjian,zhongshichengdukejianyiban,batakaifangjiarmzhenying,duiyingteerlaishuoshizaishigezaogaodexiaoxi。

zaishujuzhongxincpudeshichang,qunian6yue,dakehugugexuanbushiyongamddefuwuqixinpian。shizhanlvdiyideazurekaishidaoxiangamddexiankahecpu。jiulianyingteerzaicduandedabenyingyouxixingye,qiehuandaobduandeshijiaoyihou,yebeiyibufenyouxikaifashangpaoqi,alderon gamesshenzhihaizhijiechaofengleyingteerhejixinge:“huanzhuangamdchuliqihou,cpubengkuicishujianshaole100bei。”

2024niansanjidu,yingteerdeshujuzhongxinyewushourujinzengzhangle9%,zaitongxingmenfenfenzengzhang100%deshujuxia,zheigeshuzikeyirenweishifuzengzhang。zaijixingelianxufanxiashiwudesannianhou,tasihuyijingbuzaishoudaohezuohuobandexinlai。zheiyezuizhongshidedongshihuipaoqilezheiwei30niandelaoyuangong。

03 苏姿丰、安蒙“拉帮结派”

2021nian7yue,zaijixingehuiguiyingteerdetongyinian,gaotongyeyinglaileyimingxindezhangmenren:kelisidiyanuoanmeng。

yujixingeyiyang,anmengchushenjishu,danzhishaokanqilai,tasihubijixinge“genghuilaishi”——zhishaoduitadezhongguopengyoushizheiyang。zaichurenqctzongcaideneixienianli,tapinfandaofangzhongguo,baifangbaokuoleijunzaineidezhongguokehu。shenzhilian“anmeng”zheigezhongwenmingzi,yeshizaizhongguopengyoudejianyixiaqide,weideshigengfuhezhongguorendexiguan。

xianran,jishuchushendeanmenghenshanzhangshejiao,eryanxiatazhengzaijinxingyichanggengjiannandeshejiaorenwu。ruguobaxinpiandeshejiaozhanzhengbiyuchengjiuzhuo,neimeanmengbanyandejiushisichujingjiudejiaose。

yuyingteeryiyang,gaotongyezaidanyouzijizaiaishidaidechuanpiao,anmengdexinpiandiguoli,jimeiyoushenjingwangluozuiqinglaidegpuyewu,shenzhimeiyoushujuzhongxinyewu。anmengxiangtongguozhongduanjisuanlaiwanchengailingyudebuju。

danzhongduanbushianmengzijiyigerenjiunengzaode,zhongduanxuyaoshengtai,xuyaodaliangdeyingjianzhuangpeigaotongdexinpian,fouzexinpianjiuzhishiguipian。youci,shejiaojiaolvzaianmengxinlikuosan。

10yuexiaxundexiaolongfenghuishang,anmengqinzizaitaishangxuanbulezijidepengyouquan:weiruan、meta、openai,weigaotongxinpianzaiaishidaizhaodaoyingyongchangjing,baokuokechuandaishebei、yinpinshebei、shoubiao、kongjianjisuanshebei。ranhoushiepic games,zheijiayouxigongsizaiqunian9yuexuanbukaishijieshouaiyouxideshangjia。zuihoushitongyongqichehebaomadehezuo,tamendexuqiudangranshizhinengjiashihezhinengzuocang。

——xiangbipenmanbomandeyingweida,anmengduipengyoudexuqiuxianrangengjiajike。

zheiqizhong,aipcshigaotongdangxiashengliangzuidadeyewu。yinweianmengjianxin,xiayidaiaipcjiangchengweixingyedezhuanzhedian,gaotongzaiqizhongdeyoushijuda。

tadediqilaizitaderenmai——weiruan。zai“beici”yingteerhou,weiruanxuanzelearmzhenyingdegaotong,zuoweiziji“copilot+pc”dehezuohuobanzhiyi,binglianxutuichuleduokuanchanpin。zaianmengkanlai,ruguoweilai3niannei,copilot+pcdefenenenggouchaoguo50%,neijiushigaotongwanmeidejiyu。

weiruanzhiwai,anmengyezaixunzhaotayingyongduandehuoban,zhengge2024nian,anmengjihuzhaobianlesuoyoutoubupcchangjia,lianxiang、daierfenfenbenxiangarmzhenying。

ruanjianduanzhichi,yingyongduanyuanyidazai,anmengdeshejiaojiaolvyijinghuanjielebushao。

zaixinpianshejiaodewutaishang,haiyouyigerenheanmengyiyangbanyanzhe“sichujingjiu”dejiaose——jiyutuozhanyewushengtaidesuzifeng。

zicongjixinge“youxiewuli”demaofanhou,amdyutaijidiandehezuoyulaiyuduo,tamengongtongyanfadejianduanxinpian,rangamdzaishujuzhongxinhexiaofeizheliangduanqinshizheyingteerdefene,zheishijixingezhizhangsannianliyingteershouruchuxianbodongdezuizhijieyuanyin。

yanxia,suzifenghaizaijiejiaoxindepengyou,shitunadaoyizhangaidechuanpiao。

bujiuqian,suzifengganggangfanboleanmeng:zaitakanlai,amddenpubigaotongdegenggaoxiao。suzifengtongyanghuodeleweiruandezhichi。jinnian6yue,weiruanzhangmenrennadelaqinziweisuzifengzhantai,fabuleamd ruilong ai 300xinpian,weiruanrenweizheikuanchuliqidexingnengyijingchaoguolecopilot+pcdeyaoqiu。

yingyongduan,suzifengtongyangbuqueshaohuoban,huashuo、weixingxiangjifabuledazaiai 300xinpiandeaipc——zuolejishinianyouxixinpian,amdbuquezheigexingyedepengyou。

weileduikanggaotong,suzifengshenzhiyuzijishinianlaizuidadeduishouhezuo,zaixiyatudelianxiangdahuishang,suzifengyujixingeqinziwoshou:chenglilex86shengtaixitongzixunxiaozu,shituduikangyigaotongweishoudearmzhenying。suzifenghejixingedouqingchu,yingteerheamdzhijianzhishichangshangzhizheng,danruguox86zhenyingshibai,liangjiadoujiangshiququanbujihui。

buguozaibandaotideshijieli,hezuozhishizanshide。zhengruweiruanheyingteerzhijiande“beici”,dongshihuiduigongzuo30niandejixingezhijiepaoqi,zhiyouliyicaishiyonghengde。

04 奥特曼、扎克伯格“反水”

zaijixingenianqingdeshihou,kehumenhaidouhen“zhongcheng”。

pcchangshangmeiniangongxianshubaiyimeiyuanjiyingteer,jibianshidaier、lianxiangzheiyangdejutou,yebugan“wangyi”ziyancpu。dandaolejixinge60suideshihou,jihusuoyouyingyongchangshangdouzaishituziyanxinpian,shuaidiaoduixinpianchangshangdeyilai。

sanjidu,yingweidademaolilvweichizailekongbude73.5%。tongweifablessshengyidegaotong,maolilvyezhiyouyue56%。zuoweiyijiaxinpianchangshang,yingweidademaolilvyijingbijinlewuliangyezheiyangdezhongguobaijiuchangshang。huangrenxunzijideyaobaoyeguleqilai,jinnianersanjidu,huangrenxunfengkuangtaoxian6yimeiyuan。

图:作为硅谷科技巨头,英伟达的毛利更接近于中国白酒品牌五粮液

zuinanshouderen,wuyishineixiejihuangrenxuntaoqianderen。

zaisamuaotemandeshijiaolaikan,yingweidadecaibaobingburangrenkaixin。mingmingzijicaishizheichangailangchaodezhijietuidongzhe,fandaoshihuangrenxunsichujirenjiancai。yingweidazhuandepenmanboman,zijideopenaiquechichibunengyingli,zuixindeyingliyuqiyijingyiganzizhidaole2029nian——xianran,openaideshangyemoshibutaihao,zhuanqianfeijing,taojiyingweidadefeiyongquebunengshao。

奥特曼很难不反思。

huangrenxunshiaotemande“haopengyou”,jinnian4yue,quanqiudiyitaih200jiushiyouhuangrenxunqinzisongdaoaotemanbangongshide,8nianqian,huangrenxunhaiqinzixiangopenaizengsonglequanqiudiyitaidgx-1。zaibandaotide“jiuju”li,huangrenxunheaotemanshinengdanduchuxianzaidierchangbanyeshaokaojulidehaoxiongdi。

danzuoshengyi,meirenxihuanshouzhiyuren,aotemanzhengzainulibaituoduilaohuangdeyilai。

jinniannianchu,aotemandasuanyutaijidianhezuojianchang——chengbenshi7wanyimeiyuan。tengxunkejizaiwenzhang《“shaoguang”70000yimeiyuan,openaiyuyingweida、taijidianweidi》zhongjisuanguo,zaijianchang、shuidianziyuan、yanfafeiyongdeleijixia,jibianzhendetouru7wanyimeiyuan,8nianbanjiuhuihuaguang,erhuibaozhiyishi:dezuiquanqiudexinpianqiye。

daigongdezhongzichanrangopen aiwangerquebu,danaotemanzaoxinpiandejuexinrengranjianding,bujiuqian,aotemanqinzixianggudongyoushuotouzirain ai,zheishiyijiaxinxingdebandaotizhizaoshang,jurain aizijideshuofa,qixinpianbiyingweidadexinpiangengjieneng、gengqiangda。

zaiguigu,jihuangrenxunjiaoqianzuiduodehaibushiaoteman,zhakebogebitahuadegengduo。

metashichiyouyingweidah100xinpianzuiduodeqiyezhiyi,jibiananzhao3wanmeiyuandezuidijiajisuan,metagoumaih100dehuafeiyechaoguole100yimeiyuan。erjinniansanjidu,metadejinglirunyezhiyou156yimeiyuan,facebookhaoburongyizhuandeguanggaofei,xiangdangyibufensuizhehuangrenxundetaoxianchuaidaolelaohuangjiadeyaobaoli。

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