文｜半导体产业纵横

​zuijin，meiguyoudanshengleyijiawanyimeijinshizhidegongsi——botong。

botongmuqianyichengweiquanqiudaxingaishujuzhongxinyitaiwangjiaohuanjixinpian，yijiaiyingjianlingyuasicdingzhihuaaixinpiandezuihexingongyingliliangzhiyi，zi2023nianyilaichengweirengongzhinengtouzilangchaodehexinshichangjiaodian，qitouziredujinciyuaixinpianbazhuyingweida。

zhisuoyiqishizhitupowanyimeiyuan，zhuyaoshiqigongbuleyifenhaoyuyuqidedisicaijicaibao，bujinyinglibiaoxianhaoyuyuqi，erqiebotongjinnianrengongzhinengshouruzengzhangleliangbeiduo。botongcaibaoxianshi，zaijiezhi11yue3ridedisicaijinei，botongdiaozhenghoumeiguyingli1.42meiyuan，haoyuyuqi1.38meiyuan；botongshouru140.5yimeiyuan，jiaoquniantongqide93yimeiyuanzengzhang51%。lvediyuyuqide140.9yimeiyuan。gaigongsidisijidujinglirunwei43.2yimeiyuan，hemeigu0.90meiyuan，jiaoshangniantongqide35.2yimeiyuanhemeigu0.83meiyuanzengzhang23%。

botongyujixiayicaijishouru146yimeiyuan，lvehaoyufenxishipingjunyuqi145.7yimeiyuan。qiceochenfuyanghaitoulu，botongzhengzaiyusanjiadaxingyunkehukaifadingzhiaixinpian。

01、AI芯片路线之争：ASIC还是GPU

botongzaibaokuorengongzhinengxinpianzaineidebandaotijiejuefanganbumen，yingshoucongyinianqiande80.3yimeiyuanzengzhangle12%，zhi82.3yimeiyuan。yejiushishuo，botongyingshouzengzhangzhuyaodeyiyuaixinpianxiangguanyewu。

aixinpian，yebeichengweiaijiasuqihuozhinengxinpian，shiyizhongzhuanweigaoxiaoyunxingrengongzhinengsuanfaershejideteshuchuliqi。zheizhongxinpianjiyurengongshenjingwangluomoxing，monishengwushenjingyuandegongzuojizhi，tongguodaliangdechulidanyuanjinxingbingxingjisuan，yishixianfuzadeshuxueyunsuanheshujuchuli。ershuodaoaixinpian，juedabufenrendediyiyinxiangshiyingweidadegpu。shijishang，zhuliuaixinpianzhuyaofenweisanlei：yigpuweidaibiaodetongyongxinpian、yiasicdingzhihuaweidaibiaodezhuanyongxinpianyijiyifpgaweidaibiaodebandingzhihuaxinpian。qizhongzuishouguanzhudemoguoyuasichegpuliangzhongjishuluxian。

gpu（graphics processing unit）xinpianjituxingchuliqi，shixiankadehexin，zhuyaoshanzhangzuotuxianghetuxingxiangguanyunsuangongzuo，qitedianshijuyouqiangdadebingxingjisuannenglihegaosudeshujuchulinengli，shanzhangchulijisuanmiduda，shujujianxiangguanxingxiaodebingxingjisuan。zheizhuyaodeyiyugpuzaishejishijijisuandanyuanfenpeilegengduoquyu。zheiyangkeyiweibingxingjisuandemeigeshujudanyuanzhixingxiangtongchengxu，buxuyaofansuodeliuchengkongzhiertigaojisuannengli。jinnianlai，gpuxinpianhaiguangfanyingyongyujiqixuexisuanfaheshenduxuexisuanfadekaifazhong，qiqiangdadebingxingchulinenglishiqichengweijiqixuexisuanfaheshenduxuexisuanfakaifadezhuyaochuliqi，bingjidajianhualefuzashujuchuliliucheng。

congjisuannenglishangkan，gpuxinpianzaidashujuchulihebingxingjisuanfangmianbiaoxianchuse。raner，gpuxinpianyecunzaiyixiejuxianxing。liru，zaigonghaofangmian，gpuxinpiandegonghaoxiangduijiaogao，zheiduiyuyixieduigonghaoyaoqiujiaogaodeyingyongchangjinglaishuokenengshiyigewenti。ciwai，gpuxinpiandeneibujiegouxiangduifuza，baohanledaliangqitaluojilaishixianqitagongneng，zheixieluojiduiyuaisuanfalaishuokenengbingbuwanquanyouyong，congerzaiyidingchengdushangyingxiangleaisuanfadezhixingxiaolv。

zaiciqingkuangxia，asicbeinarushiye。‌asic（application-specific integrated circuit）‌，jiyingyongtedingjichengdianlu，zaijichengdianlujiebeirenweishiyizhongweizhuanmenmudeershejidejichengdianlu。asiczaipiliangshengchanshiyugpudengtongyongjichengdianluxiangbijuyoutijigengxiao、gonghaogengdi、kekaoxingtigao、xingnengtigao、baomixingzengqiang、chengbenjiangdidengyoudian。

suizheshengchengshiaiyingyongdexunmengfazhan，ai asicxinpiannengfouchengweiyingweidagpuxinpianke⾏detidaipin⼀zhishiyeneireyihuati。ermogenshidanlirenwei，jinguanmianlinyingweidagpudejingzheng，ai asicdeshichangrengjiangjixukuozhang。damofenxishibiaoshi，asicshichangguimojiangjixuzengzhang，yujizai2024—2027nianqijian，ai asicshichangguimojiangcong120yimeiyuanzengzhangzhi300yimeiyuan，nianfuhezengzhanglvdadao34%，qizhong3nmxiangmujiangchengweiguanjianjingzhenglingyu。

yanjiujigourosenblattyeyuji，suizheqitakejijutoudetupo，kehudingzhihuadeai asicdezengsuyujijiangchaoguogpujisuan。

02、英伟达AI GPU最强劲对手

zuoweiaixinpiandelongtouqiye，yingweidadeaishengtaiyongyousandawangpai，gpu、cudahenvlink。

cudashiyingweidagongsishejiyanfayizhongbingxingjisuanpingtaihebianchengmoxing，baohanlecudazhilingjijiagouyijigpuneibudebingxingjisuanyinqing。kaifarenyuankeyishiyongcyuyanlaiweicudajiagoubianxiechengxu，suobianxiechudechengxukeyizaizhichicudadechuliqishangyichaogaoxingnengyunxing。

ernvlinkzeshiyingweidakaifabingtuichudeyizhongzongxianjiqitongxinxieyi。nvlinkcaiyongdianduidianjiegou、chuanliechuanshu，yongyucpuyugpuzhijiandelianjie，yekeyongyuduogegpuzhijiandexianghulianjie。dangqianpeibeibingshiyongnvlinkdechanpinyeyifabu，duoweizhenduigaoxingnengyunsuanyingyonglingyu，biruyingweidadetesla p100yunsuanka、h100deng。nv linkzaiyouhuagpuyucpuzhijiandeshujujiaohuan，zengqiangxitongdelinghuoxingyukuozhanxing，tigaoxitongdenengxiaobishang，doujubeiqiangyoulidejingzhengnengli。

ernvlinkdechenggongzhuyaodeyiyu2019 nianyi 69 yimeiyuandejuezijinshougouleyiseliexinpianchangshangmailuosi（mellanox）kejiyouxiangongsi。zaigaosuyitaiwangka、wangluohulianshebeidengshichang，mailuosichuyuquanqiudiyitidui，zaiinfinibandlingyudezhanyoulvjiejin70%。shougouwanchengzhihou，yingweidajiangzijiyuanyoudenv linkxieyihemailuosidewangkaxinpianzuolezhenghe，congerzaishengtaishangwanchenglegaoduronghe。biru，nvlinkjingchangyongyugpukajianhulian，yitigaojisuanrenwudexingneng；er infinibandzefuzelianjieshujuzhongxinneidetongyongfuwuqijiedian、cunchushebeideng，yishixianzhenggexitongdegaoxiaoyunxing。

yingweidayinqixianfayoushihesandawangpai，zaiaixinpianlingyuwenzuotoubajiaoyi。danrujinyingweidazuiqiangjingdejingzhengduishouyijingchuxian。

botongshejibingxiaoshoudexinpianzhong，suiranmeiyougpuhenvlink，danbotongqueyongyouhenduoquebaogpuzhengchangtongxindegaosulianjiexinpian，biruswitch，leisidexinpianbotongzaiquanqiushichangfenezhongzhanyoujinbanshudeshichangfene，youyuqishejidenandubijiaogao，jiagebijiaogui，lirunyeziranfenghou。

ciwai，botongyeyongyouxinpianshejifuwunengli。pingjieduonianzaixinpiandingzhilingyudejilei，botongyongyoufengfudexinpianshejiip。zheiyeshidebotongkeyitongguoweikehushejiasicxinpianheyingweidadegpujingzheng。yinweicaiyongdeshiasicdefangan，buxuyaoheyingweidagpuyiyangshixiantongyongjisuannengli，zhixuyaopaotongkehudesuanfa，xitonghemoxingzuyi，ziranyebikailecudashengtai。shijishangbotongyijingbanggugezheileihulianwangdachangkaifaleyikuanzhuanyongai asic，jigugedetpu。

shichangdiaoyanjigouomdiadezuixinyanjiujieguoqiangdiaoleduigugezhangliangchulidanyuan （tpu）aixinpiandexuqiuzhengzaikuaisuzengzhang，zheiyiqushikenengzuyikaishixueruo nvidia zai gpu lingyudeshichangzhudaodiwei。botongceoyizaishangdiaotade ai xinpianshourumubiaozhi 120 yimeiyuan。jiyuci，juguji，gugede tpu kenengzhan 60 yimeiyuandao 90 yimeiyuanzhijian，jutiqujueyujisuanhewangluoshebeizhijiandexifen。zheigeshuzibaokuodaliang meta de mtia xinpian，yiji2025nianjiangxinzengdeyigeshenmidedisangekehudexiangmu。

fenxishizhichu，“jinguanjisuanshebeihewangluoshebeidejutibilicunzaiyixiebuquedingxing，danjishianzhaojiaodide60yimeiyuanguji，tpuchuhuoliangdezengzhangsuduyezuyishoucicongyingweidashouzhongqiangzhanshichangfene。zhidezhuyideshi，gugeyunyewuzaizongshouruzhongzhanbichixuzengzhang，yingliyezaibuduantisheng。zheikenengbiaomingtpujiasushilihejiyutpudeaichanpinzaifahuizuoyong。”

asiczhengzaijiasujueqi，weixiegpuzaiaijisuanzhongdetongzhidiwei。deyiyuci，botongzuoweiasiczuizhongyaodegainiangu，gujiayilumengzhang，yiducong180biaodaole250，shizhiyetupolewanyimeiyuan。xiangbizhixia，yingweidafanerchenglezuorihuanghua，gujiayiluxiadie，shenzhibudao130meiyuan。

03、百万算力集群大战来袭

muqian，jiyugpuheasicdesuanlijiqunzhengmaixiangbaiwansuanlikadejiqundazhan。

masikexuanbu，jihuajiangxaidecolossus aichaojijisuanjicongmuqiande10wangegpukuozhandao100wange，zheiwuyiyinfaleyejiedeguangfanguanzhu，congerchaoyueguge、openai he anthropic dengjingzhengduishou。buguo，xaibingfeiweiyiyijiayongyourucihongweijihuadeqiye。

botongceozai2024cainianq4caibaodianhuahuiyishangbiaoshi：“womenmuqianyousanjiachaodaguimokehu，tamenyijingzhidinglezijideduodaiai xpuluxiantu，jihuazaiweilaisannianneiyibutongsudubushu。womenxiangxin，dao2027nian，tamenmeijiadoujihuazaidanyijiagoushangbushu100wanxpujiqun。”

botongweibaokuoguge、metazaineideduojiakejijutoukaifaai、dingzhishujuzhongxinyingjianxinpiandeng。gongsiyukehuhezuoquedinggongzuofuzaixuqiu，ruaixunlian、tuilihuoshujuchuli，ranhoudingyixinpianguigebingkaifaguanjianchayihuafangmian。botongfuzejiangjiagoushixianweiguipian，bingpeibeipingtaitedingdeip、huancun、xinpianjianhulianhejiekou。zheixiegaoxingnengxpuyoutaijidian（tsmc）zhizao。

rujinbotongheyingweidadeaixinpiandazhanzhengyuyanyulie。

04、转机出现，博通未来可期

ziliaoxianshi，dao2027nian，qirengongzhinengxinpianyijirengongzhinengwangluobujiandezongshichangjihuikenengzai600yizhi900yimeiyuanzhijian。

suiranaixinpianshichanghenda，danyizhiyilaidoubeiyingweidasuobakong。buguo2024nianyingweidaqueliunianbuli，zuijinzhuanjilaile。

shouxianshiyingweidaxindegpupinpinyanqi。genjuthe informationdeyifenxinbaogao，yingweidayixiangqibufenhezuohuobantoulu，yuandingdeblackwell gpufabujihuajiangtuichi，muqianmubiaosuodingzai2025nianchu。tuichifabusuizaiyiliaozhiwai，danbeihoudeyuanyin——shejiquexian，genglingrenyouxin。suizhexinyidaigpudejiaofutuichi，aichanyedeyonghutiyanjiangshoudaoyingxiang。gedagongsizaibushujiyucijishudeyingyongshi，mianlinxiangmujinduyanwudefengxian。

ciwai，tianfengzhengquanfenxishiguomingqifabudezuixintouziyanjiubaogaobiaoshi，yingweidazhengweiqimingnianjijiangtuichudeb300hegb300kaifaceshidrmosjishu，danqizhongfaxianaos（alpha and omega semiconductor limited） de5×5 drmos xinpiancunzaiyanzhongguorewenti。ruguozheigedewentibunengkuaisujiejue，zekenengyingxiangxitongliangchanjindu，binggaibianshichangduiaosdingdandeyuqi。

lingyifangmian，dangqianbotongdeasickehuyijingshixianliangchandeshigugehemeta，qizhongzuidabufenlaiziyuguge。gongsideaishouruhegugedezibenkaizhiyoujiaoqiangdexiangguandu。lingwai，jiehegongsirenwei2024cainian150-200yimeiyuandekefuwushichangguimokan，fuhezengsujiangdadao50%yishang，zheiweishichangxinxinzaicizhurule“qiangxinji”。