wen | yulezibenlun zhangyihong

2024niandezibenshichang，ruguosheihaibuliaoguzijingji，neiyidingbushiyigehegedewenyuxiaofeiren。

“guzi”yicilaiziyuyingyu“goods”，zaierciyuanwenhuazhongzhideshijiyudongman、youxidengipyanshengchudeshangpin，changjianshangpinxingshibaokuogeleishouban、moxing、yaochikou、leishepiao、huizhang、kapaideng。

zheikuaixiangzhengzhe“erciyuangoumaili”deshichang，zaijinnianjinrutouzizhedeshiye，chengweizibenyanzhongdexiayikuairetu。xiabannianyilai，guzijingjigainianguzhangfuchao30%。

chengzheguzijingjidedongfeng，12yue9ri，dingweiwei“zhongguobanlegao”debulukediercixianggangjiaosuodijiaoshangshishenqing。zaijiashangzhiqiandekayou，huoxuhuoxuganggushichangyouchaoyirijiangchuxianliangjiatoubu“guzijingji”gongsi。

dankayouhebulukezhendeshiguzijingjima？yulezibenlunzixifenxikeyifaxian，zaibulukezhongaotemanipzhanbiyichao50%，eraotemanzaikayouzhanbizuigaodeshihouyechaoguo50%——zai2024nianshangbannian，aotemanhuoyizaizhongguoxingchengshouru10geyideshichang，yijingshiaotemanjiwandaidewanjuyuaihaoyewuchuangzaodebannianyeji1.9yide5beiyouyu。

zheinalishishenmeguzijingjia，zheiminghuanghuangdeshiaotemanjingjia，eraotemandeshouzhongqiahaoshihenduorenhulvede“xiaoxuesheng”qunti。zheihuoxushijinniangedashangchangrezhongyukaiguzidian，zuizhongquezaoyudaliangdaobichaodeyuanyin（dianjikeyuedu）。zibenshichangchaodezaihuore，zanxingyeneiderenyedelengjingyidiane。

01 奥特曼占比超50%，小学生撑起两家拟上市公司

yipinzhuangmoxingweizhuyaochanpindebuluke，huoxubingbuxiangrangrenjuedetamenyilaiaoteman。

zaizhaogushuzhongtamenxiedao“womenyicongipbanquanfanghuoshouquanfanghuodeyue50gezhimingipdefeidujiashouquan，baokuoaoteman、bianxingjingang、huoyingrenzhe、manwei：wuxianchuanqijixiaozhizhuhetadeshenqixiaohuobanmen、xiaohuangren、baokemeng、jiamianqishi、mingzhentankenan、chuyinweilai、shengdoushixingshi、xinshijifuyinzhanshi、kaidimao、zhimajie、chaojizhandui、dcchaoren、dcbianfuxia、halibotejixingqiudazhandeng。”

jinkenengduodeipshouquanshibulukelunzhengzijiyounenglijianqingduiaotemanipyilaideweiyitujing。danchulezaochengjizengdeshouquanfeizhichuwai，duanshijianneirengranhennankandaobulukebaituoaotemanyilaidekenengxing。

图1 布鲁可2021年至今盈利情况 数据来源：公司招股书

图2 布鲁可2021年至今授权费情况数据来源：公司招股书 注：授权费计入营业成本（销售成本）。

buluketaobaoqijiandianxianshi，bulukeguanqixiaoliangqianwuzhong，qiansijunweipinzhuangmoxing，qiansanjunlaiziaotemanip，（xiaoliang5wan+、4wan+、3wan+），disiminglaizibianxingjingang（xiaoliang3wan+），qitaipxiaoliangjunweiguowan。

zhaogushuxianshi，aotemanzai2023、2024nianshangbannianweibulukegongxianle63.5%、57.4%deyingyeshouru。jiezhijinnianyijidu，bulukezaipindajiaoseleiwanjuyongyou255gesku，qizhongaotemanipzhandao133gesku。tongshi，huoxushishoudaoaotemanshangyoushouquanfeiyongdeyingxiang，aotemanipdemaolilvdiyubianxingjingangjibulukeziyouipyingxiongwuxian。

图3 布鲁可拼装模型销售情况，数据来源：公司招股书

youqudeshi，bulukebushiweiyiyijiayanzhongyilaiaotemandegongsi。ciqian，lingyijia“aotemangainian”gongsiyeshituchongjigangjiaosuo：jinnianyiyue，yongyoufengmiquanguodeaotemankapaide“kapaidawang”kayouzaigangjiaosuodijiaoleshangshishenqing。

图4 卡游2021-2023年盈利情况，数据来源：公司招股书

kayoubingweitouluaotemanipdaodijigongsidailaileduoshaoshouru。kayoujiejin90%deshourulaiziyujihuanshikapai，eraotemanxiliekapaiskushuliangzhanjihuanshikapaixiliezongshude65%；shiyongzheilianggeshujugusuan，aotemanduikayoudeyingshougongxianyedangguoban。

图5 卡游2021-2023年产品构成，数据来源：公司招股书

congmubiaorenqundejiaodulaikan，bulukehekayoudoubingbuwanquandengtongyurenmensuoqidaideguzijingji——yinweitamendaibiaodebushi“erciyuangoumaili”ershi“weichengnianrengoumaili”。zhengruxiaoyuxianqianbaodaodeneiyang，“kaquan”decanyuzhezhongyouhendayibufenshiweichengnianren，tamenyouhenqiangdeshoujixingqu、tongshiduihulianwangdejiaoyiguizefeichangshuxi。

zhongguoxiaoxueshengweiherucichimiyuaoteman？zheishiyigehuoxujuedaduoshudarendouwufalijiedewenti。danbuluke2024nian6geyuedeaotemanxiangguanshangpinde6geyishouru，ruguokaolvbulukehekayouliangjiagongsi，aotemanhuoyizaizhongguoxingchengbannianshouru10geyideshichang。zheigezonge，yijingshiaotemanjiwandaidewanjuyuaihaoyewuchuangzaode40yiriyuan（2024nian4-9yue，yueweirenminbi1.9yi）de5beiyouyu。

02 谷子经济概念股，是谷子还是概念？

yaoruhedingyiguzijingji？

shouxian，guzijingjigenzhiyuerciyuanwenhua。qici，guzishiipdeyanshengpin，jixianyouqitaxingshi（dongman、youxi、xiaoshuodeng）deip，zaiyouzuoweizhoubiandeshangpin（birupaopaomateyuqitaipdelianmingmanghe）。zuihou，“weireaimaidan”shideguzidedingjiazhongyunhanjidadeipyijia，zheijinsiyizhongpinpaiyijia，yeshiguzijingjilingrenyanhongdezhuyaoyuanyin。

ipyijiayoukeyicongsanfangmianlijie：shangpindeshouzangyiyidayushiyongyiyi；ipaihaozhedaduoyongyoudezhishichanquanbaohuyishiyijitonghaojiaoliuxuqiushide“zhengbangu”he“daobangu”jiazhichayijuda；ershoushichanghuoyue，bufenjijushouzangyiyideguzijiageyuanchaoyishoushichangdingjia。

xiaoyuzhenglilebeitaolunjiaoduodebufenguzijingjigainiangu。zaizhenglideguochengzhong，xiaoyufaxianbufenbeilieruguzijingjigainiandegongsishengchandechanpinheipdeshijiguanlianfeichangyouxian；bufengongsideshangpinsuiranyeyouipshouquanchengfen，danqixingshiyeyushichanggongrendeguzixingshixiangqushenyuan。zheiyidiandaoshihenxiangqianjitianbaozhang5yideduanjugainianguhualingjinggong，qibeihouyeshiyijiamingbujianjingchuandeduanjugongsi（dianjikeyuedu）。

图6 谷子概念股一览，资料来源：公开信息整理。数据截止至2024年12月18日。

zaixiaoyukanlai，guoneizibenshichangshangdeguzijingjigainiangukeyifenweizhuyaobaohansandalei。

diyileishiipwenchuangdetoubulingshoushang。qianwentidaodepaopaomatejujiaodanyipinleimanghechaowan，kaoyuanchuangiphewaibuiplianming“liangtiaotuizoulu”。mingchuangyoupinhangaishenghuojiaju、wanouguajiandengduopinlei，hezuoipbaokuohalibote、chiikawa、baokemengdeng，meicilianmingdoutuichuliangweishusku。chenguangtuichudejiumuzawusheyexiangzuoleisideshangyemoshi，2023nianganggangniukuiweiying。

dierlei，aofeiyuleziyouip+zhoubianshengchan，zaisuoyoushangshigongsizhongdushuyizhi。danaofeiyuleqixiadeip《xiyangyangyuhuitailang》、《balalaxiaomoxian》、《kaijiayongshi》dengduoweizigongxiang，zhoubianxingshiyeyibianxingwanoudengchuantongwanjuweizhu。chucizhiwai，aofeiyulezipinpai “weisijimu”、 “wandianwuxian”（zhudadiediele）zehewaibuipdengjinxinghezuo，zheibufenyewuheguzijingjidezhijieguanlianchengdujiaoda。

disanleishichuantongwenjuhewanjuchangshang。zheileichangshangzaixiudaoguzijingjifengqihou，kaishishitujiangipjingjirongrushangyemoshi，dancongmuqianlaikanxiaoguobijiaoyouxian。julilaishuo，guangbohe《tianguancifu》lianmingdetuoyuanxinghuizhangxiaoliangzaitaobaoguanqijinliangweishu。

ciwai，haicunzaiyixieyibutongxingshijinruchanyeliandegongsi。ruchengjiewenchuangxiangguanyewu、kuozhanmangheyewu、weizhoubianchangshangjiagongdeng。

图7 谷子概念股盈利情况，数据来源：东方财富

注：沐邦高科、金运激光均有其他主营业务。名创优品2023年使用2023财年数据（2022年7月-2023年6月），2024年上半年使用2024年数据（2024年1-6月）。

zhengruqianwensuoshu，guzijingjiheputongwenju、wanjuzhizaoyezuidadequbiezaiyuipyijia。yibanlaishuo，qiyecanyuguzijingjidechengduyueshen，keyiqudedelirunkongjianyueda。xiangbijiaoeryan，bulukehekayoudepinpaiyijiahaichuyujiaoweituchudeshuiping。

keyishuo，zaiguonei，zibenshichangshangjuedaduoshudeguzijingjigainiancanyuzherengshichuantongdewenjushang、wanjushang。guzijingjishiyimenhaoshengyi，danhesuoyoudehaoshengyiyiyangjueduibuyizhangwo。guzijingjidexiangxiangkongjian，yuanzaigainianguzhishang。

03 谷子经济最高境界，谁会成为中国万代？

zibenshichangsuoqidaide“guzijingji”longtoudaodiyinggaishishenmeyangzi？ruguobamuguangfangdaoerciyuanwenhuadeqiyuandiriben，wandaijueduishirangsuoyouchiguren（tebieshiriguren）youaiyouhendeyijiagongsi。

shouwojidongzhanshigaoda、longzhu、haizeiwang、huoyingrenzhedengjueduijingdiandedaipdewandainanmenggong，zai2024cainian（jiezhizhi2024nian3yue30ri）shouru10502yiriyuan（yueweirenminbi499yi）；jinnianer、sanjidushouru6113.91yiriyuan（yueweirenminbi287.5yiyuan）。

qizhong，wanjuheaihaoyewuzhanwandaishourujin50%。jinnianer、sanjidu，wandaiwanjuheaihaoyewushouruwei2916yiriyuan（yuewei138yirenminbi）。haizeiwang、gaoda、longzhudengjingdianipgongxiankaoqian。

图8 万代2022财年至今玩具和爱好业务盈利情况，数据来源：公司公告

图9 2024年4-9月万代前九大IP玩具和爱好业务收入，数据来源：公司公告

pingjieduiyujingdianipdelaolaokongzhiyijichangnianjileideguojishengyu，wandaidechanpindingjiajuebubianyi。yievaweili，wandaichuchandeevachuhaojipinzhuangshoubanzaiguoneiershoushichangshangjiazhi200shangxia，erbulukedexinpinpinzhuangmoxingjinshou169yuan，qitaguoneichangshangshengchandemoxingershoushichangjiagezezai70yuanzuoyou。

yiwandaipiludeyingyunlirunlv（yingyunlirun/yingyeshouru）weijizhun，womenkeyibijiaoguoneiguzijingjigainiangudeyinglinengli。yuwandaiyingyunlirunlvxiangdangde，zhiyoukayou、paopaomate、mingchuangyoupinsanjiaqiye。congshangyemoshilaikan，zheisanjiaqiyeyeshizuijiejinipjingjideyunyingmoshide。

图10 万代及国内谷子经济概念股营运利润对比，数据来源：公司公告、公司招股书、东方财富

注：万代2023年使用2024财年数据（2023年4月-2024年3月），2024年上半年使用2025年财年上半年数据（2024年4月-9月）；卡游2023年使用1-9月数据（招股书未披露后续数据）；名创优品2023年使用2023财年数据（2022年7月-2023年6月），2024年上半年使用2024年数据（2024年1-6月）。

guzijingjidehexinhaishiipjingji。sheiwoyouip，sheijiuwoyouhuayuquan。wandainenggouxingchengdangjindediwei，yibufenlaiziyulaopaizhoubianchangshangdediqi，lingyibufenlaiziyuyunanmenggonghebinghouyongyoudeneirongchuangzuojiyoucixingchengdeipfuhuanengli。

zaiguonei，zhuliuipjinwozaiyouxijihulianwangchangshangshoushang。duibiriben，woguodetoubuneirongshengchanzhejizhongdugenggao，zaichanyelianliyongyoujueduidehuayuquan。yinci，guoneidezhoubianshengchanshangxiangyaozhenzhengcanyuguzijingjibingshixianpinpaishouyi，zuizhijiedefangshishijiangzhoubianshengchanyewudazaochengziyoupinpaibingjianlihuchenghe。

mingchuangyoupinyouchaodaxingxianxiakongjianhequanpinleidenengli，aofeiyuleqixia“wandianwuxian”shengchandiediele，kayouyoushejiaoshuxinghewanfajizhi，bulukezaimoxingshejinenglishangkaishizhanlutoujiao。qiyudeqiyexiangyaotuoyingerchu，zebixuzhaodaozijidejingzhengyoushi。

04 结语

guzijingjichuyuipchanyeliandexiayou，suizheipwenhuadechixufazhanhexinxiaofeifengchaodexingcheng，guzijingjibiranbuhuishijiandandepaomo。congxiaohaigexiaohaijieduiaoteman、xiaomabaolikapaidechimi，daomeiniannanyigusuandelianmingshuliang，douzuozhenglezheiyidian。guzijingjisuiyou，danwoguode“guzichanyelian”fazhan，biqierciyuanwenhuajiduchengshuderibenlaishuorengqianhuohou。

er“aotemanjingji”dexingqi，yibufenshichuantongwanjuxingyedeyibufen，lingyibufenyiweizheweichengnianrenyekaishishou“chiguwenhua”yingxiangxingchengxinxiaofeixiguan。danweichengnianrenshizhongshiyigeminganhuati，bulukeshifounengguoguohui，yijiguohuihoushifouhuishoudaojianguanheyulunyingxiang，dourengshiweizhishu。

gengzhongyaode，weichengnianrenzhinengchengweiguzijingjidebuchong，zhenzhengxiangyaochuangzuozhongguoguzijingji，haishixuyaojifayouxiaofeilidechengnianrendereqing。