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houyiqingshidaidequanqiujingjifusuzhiluqianjingruhe?zhongguojingjifazhanhezibenshichanggaigemianlinnaxiejiyuhetiaozhan?xiabannianguzhaishichanghuiyouzenyangdejihui?kechuangbanyunxingyinianyoujiangmianlinnaxieqixuhetiaozhan?
zaishierjielujiazuiluntanzhaokaiqianxi,zhongtaizhengquanshouxijingjixuejialixunleijieshoujiemianxinwenzhuanfang,jiujinqitaduiquanqiuhezhongguojinrongjingjixingshidesikaohejianjiefabiaokanfa。
以下为访谈实录:
全球经济仍处下行趋势,疫情不能通过印钞来解决
界面新闻:今年以来,受新冠疫情的影响,全球经济遭遇冲击,随着各国逐步复工复产,对于后疫情时代全球经济走向,您有何预见?
lixunlei:zheicixinguanyiqingzaochengdequanqiujingjitingbai,biyuqidegengweiyanzhong。jingwaiyiqingcongqianqizaioumeibaofa、manyan,fazhanzhijinchengyoubeiwangnankuosandetaishi,lamei、yindu、nanfeidengdoushiyiqingjiaoyanzhongdediqu,zheiyejinyibutuoyanlequanqiujingjihuifuzhengchangdeshijian,quanqiujingjixianrushuaituidegailvyuelaiyueda。
shijishang,jishimeiyouxinguanyiqing,quanqiujingjiyechuyuyigexiaxingdequshidangzhong,xiaxingdebenzhiyuanyinshijiegoushiheng,birushuomeiguomuqiandedongluan,biaomianshangkanshizhongzuwenti,danconggenbenshanglaishuo,shiyigepinfuchajuguodadewenti。zhengfucaiqudeyingduijucuobingbunenggougaibianjingjishuaituidequshi,zhishipinghuanlexielveryi。
界面新闻:您提到政府的应对举措,我们看到近期欧美多国纷纷推出刺激方案以提振经济。多国央行执行负利率以刺激信贷供给。您认为“负利率”是否是拯救经济的良药?长期来看是否存在隐患?
lixunlei:fulilvzuoyongbuda,piruriben、oumengdeng,doushifulilv,qitaguojiayeyouwangzheifangmiankaolongdequshi,birudajiayezaidanyou,meiguojianglaiyaogaofulilv。zheizhongzuofazhinengpinghuanyixiajingjishuaituidexielv。benlaixielvhuihendouqiao,zhixinglefulilv,youlelianghuakuansong,zheigexielvhuibiandexiangduipinghuanyidian,dantagaibianbulequshi。biruribendelilvzhangqichuyufeichangdidezhuangtai,danshihaishimeiyouyong。
suoyi,congzheidianlaijiang,wojuedewomenduiyuhuobizhengcefangmianbuyaojiyuguodadeqiwang,jiegouxingwentihaishiyaotongguogaigelaituijinjiejue,yiqingdewentiyewufatongguoyinchaolaijiejue。
GDP本身是一个结果,“六稳”“六保”目标更加精准
界面新闻:相比之下,中国政府推出的政策是否更为“克制”?今年政府工作报告首次未设GDP目标,在这样的情况下,您认为实现“六保”“六稳”需要从哪些方面发力?
lixunlei:zheiyangjiushide“liuwen”“liubao”mubiaogengjiajingzhun, gdpbenshengengyinggaishiyigejieguo,womenyaodingmubiaodehua,haishiyaodingyixiejiaoweijutidemubiao,birubaojiuyedeng。 zheicilianghuishangyetichulai,yaoxinzengjiuye900wan。
zheixiejutimubiaohuiladonggdpdezengzhang,biru900wandexinzengjiuyerenshu,duiyingdegdpdagaizaisangebaifendianzuoyou。suoyishijishang,suiranmeiyoushedinggdpdezhijiemubiao,danyehaishiyoujianjiemubiaode。
lingwaiyifangmian,genoumengxiangbi,genmeiguoxiangbi,womenzaigaigeshangmiandeliduhaishibijiaodade,zheijiuyouliyuzhongguojingjizhangqiwendingdezengzhang。dangranzengsuhaishihuixiayigetaijie,zheishiwomenyaomianduideyigexianshi。
界面新闻:有观点认为,“新基建”将成为我国对冲经济下行压力,为未来增长提供动力的重要抓手,您怎么看?
lixunlei:xinjijianzhuyaodeyingxiangyouliangfangmian,yigeshicujinxinjiudongnengdezhuanhuan,biru5gjiushixinjijiandeyigezhuyaoneirong,yaojiandaliangdejizhan,zheiyangdehuaxinyidaixinxijishudeyingyongtuiguangduiwomenjingjizhuanxingshiyoulide,duiwomenpeiyangxingchengxindejingjiredianyeshiyoulide。
lingwaiyifangmianshibuduanban,birutegaoyachengshiguidaojiaotongzheixieduanbandejijian,wojuedehaishixuyaozuode,duiyutishengchengshiyunzhuanxiaolv、jiejuejuminchuxingnanwenti、tishengrenminshenghuozhiliangdengfangmiandoushiyouhaochude。
审核2.0有助于科创板形成规模,T+0应该是个长期目标
界面新闻:科创板开板已满一整年,对于这一年来科创板的表现您作何评价?
lixunlei:wojuedezongtibiaoxianhaishilingrenmanyide,kechuangbancaiquleshichanghuadedingjia,suoxianxianchulaideshichongmanhuolihejihuide,shidecanyuzhenenggoucongzhongshouyi。zheibeihoushuomingleshenme?shizhongguojingjizhengzaishixianzhuanxingshengji,kechuangbandetuichushishunyinglezhongguojingjizhuanxingshengjizheiyangyigedadequshi,tuidonglewomenzibenshichangdegaige,yedailailehenduotouzijihui。
xianzaikechuangbanganggangyunxing1zhounian,kenengdajiayecunzaigezhonggeyangdedanyou。wojuedejianglaisuizhetuishizhidudezhubuguifanheyangezhixing,haishixiwangnenggoubahaozhiliangguan,rangshichanglaijuedingshichang。ruguogongsibuxing,zaixinxipilushangmianyouweigui,huoshizaimoufangmianmeiyoudadaoyaoqiu,jiuyinggaituichushichang。
界面新闻:今年以来特别是进入6月,科创板审核速度出现明显加快。上交所也提出,以实施“科创板发行上市审核2.0”为抓手,切实提高效率,优化审核服务,促进科创板做优做大。在您看来,这一新版审核的主要特点及成效有哪些?
lixunlei:guoqu,womenzongdanxingupiaokuorongguimoguoda,touzizheshifouyounenglichengshou。rujin,kechuangbanjiakuaishenhesudu,wojuedeshiyouxiaode,yebubibaoyouzhiqianneiyangdedanyou,yinweiwomendezibenshichangbushiangupiaoduoshaolaidingjia,ershikanyuqihuibaolvlaidingjia。kechuangbandeshenhe2.0banqishiyeshiyizhongjinbu,tongguozengjiazibenshichangdegongji,shidekechuangbanyouxiaodaoda、jianglainenggouzhubuxingchengyidingliangdeguimo。youleguimozhihou,caikeyixiyingengduodetouzizhelaicanyuzheigeshichang。
界面新闻:近期市场热议“T+0”等交易制度话题,能否谈下对于这一交易制度引入的必要性和重要性,以及实施的要点和难点?
lixunlei:guji“t+0”haishiyigezhangqimubiao,zhongguobijinghaishiyigexinxingshichang,bujizheyaoqiurenhezhidudouxunsuhequanqiuchengshushichangjiegui,fangxiangshimeiwentide,dankenengzhongjianhaishixuyaoyouyigeguocheng。
womenzibenshichangxuyaogaigededifanghaishihenduode,birushangzhengzongzhidequanzhongshezhiyehaishixuyaodiaozheng。yuzhixiangbidehua,“ t+0”weilaikendinghuishishi,danbushizuijideshiqing。
界面新闻:科创板指数迟迟未见推出,您认为这是出于哪些考虑?
lixunlei:zhishushiyigedaibiao,kejiaoweizhunquedefanyingzhenggebankuaidefazhanqingkuang。ruozaikechuangbanganggangchuangshe、gupiaoshuliangjiaoshaodeshihouguozaotuichuzhishu,neime,jianglaisuizhedaliangdekechuangqiyeshangshi,zhishudaibiaoxinghuishoudaoyingxiang。 suoyi,wojuedezheigejieduanhaibushihenzhejituichuzhishu,yaoxiqudangnianshangzhengzongzhidejiaoxun,shidewomendezhishubianzhigengjiakexue、gengyoudaibiaoxing。
界面新闻:对于上证综指的调整,您能否具体讲讲有何建议?
lixunlei:youjigefangmianxuyaokaolv:diyi,guanyunarushangzhengzongzhideshijian,wojuedeshibushikeyiyanhouyixia,muqianzheigeshijianhaishiyoudianguozaole。conglishijingyanlaijiang,henduogupiaofaxingdedingjiabushiwanquanshichanghuade,duiyuzheileibuwanquanshichanghuadingjiadegupiao,ruguoguozaojiangqinarushangzhengzongzhi,kongpaduizhishuhuidailaiyidingdefumianyingxiang。
dier, congfanweilaijiang,shibushisuoyougupiaodouyaonarudaozhishulimian?duineixieyejihenchade、shizhihenxiaode、jiaoyihenbuhuoyuedegupiao,shibushiyaonaru?
disan,narubiaozhundaodishikanzhenggegupiaozongshizhidedaxiao,haishikanliutongshizhidedaxiao,wojuedezheifangmianyeshiyaokaolvde。
界面新闻:目前创业板改革和多层次资本市场体系建设也在稳步推进,您认为创业板注册制能否激发市场及企业活力?如何做好配套制度建设及管理?
lixunlei:zhucezhishiquanqiufadajingjitishichangshangtongxingdeyigezhidu,woguozibenshichangchengli30zhounian,xianzaishixingzhucezhi,yeshibiaozhizhezhongguozibenshichangzhengzhujianzouxiangchengshu。
tuixingzhucezhi,duiyutigaowomenzhijierongzidebizhongshiyouhaochude,yinweizaizhucezhixia,qiyeshangshidetiaojiangengjiakuansong。tongshi,yekeyituijinzibenshichangdegaige。dajiayizhizaibaoyuan,womendeshichangzongshi“xiongzhangniuduan”,ruguoshixingzhucezhi,duiyuneixiekuisunde、jiaochadeshangshigongsi,jiukeyicaiqutuishidengshouduan,zheijiushidezhenggeshichangnenggouyoushenglietai,chufashangshigongsideweijigan,shidetamenzaibaohutouzizheliyi、tigaoqiyedeyunyingxiaolvdengfangmianyousuotisheng。
ciwai,wulunshizhucezhi,haishituishizhidu,douxuyaoyouxiangguanfalvzuoweibaozhang。zhengquanfajingguoxiugai,muqianyeyijingshishile,xinbanzhengquanfajiaqiangleduishichangweiguixingweidechengchulidu,wojuedezheidoushiyouliyuwomenzibenshichangdezhangqijiankangfazhande。
债券市场是慢牛,A股结构性机会始终存在
界面新闻:对于下半年的A股市场您怎么看?
lixunlei:shouxian,worenweibudahuiyouyigedaniushi,muqianhaishichuzaiyigequanqiuhuajingjixiaxingdequshidangzhong,qieyiqingheshijieshuyeshibuqingchude,suoyi,jiuxiangwomenxianzaimeiyousheding gdpzengsumubiaoyiyang,yaopanduanzhenggeagudezoushiyouyidingnandu。
danshiyouyidiankeyikending,jiushijiegouxingdejihuishizhongcunzai,erqiezhangqicunzai。agushichanghuiyuelaiyuegenquanqiujiegui,genquanqiudejiazhitouzilinianxiangjiegui,duiyuneixiejingyingguifan、xingyeshuxingjiaohaodetoubuqiye,xiabannianhaishihuiyoujiaohaodebiaoxian。
lingwaiyifangmian,womendelilvshuipinghaihuijinyibuxiadiao,guzhiyeyouwangjinyibutisheng,suoyi,wojuedehaishihuiyoujiegouxingdejihui。
界面新闻:您在文章中曾指出,A股走势明显弱于美股,而创业板表现相对沪指深指数则要更好,这与我国今年的宏观政策以及经济处于转型期有关,您认为这样的情况是否将长期存在?
lixunlei:haishihuizhangqichixu。 woyizhiqiangdiaodeshicunliangjingjishidaidefenhua,zheizhongfenhuazaishitijingjidangzhonghuibiaoxianchulai,zaizibenshichangshangyehuibiaoxianchulai。
muqianlaijiang,agucunzaizheliangdawenti:diyidawenti,womenzaigongsizhilifangmianhaiyoutishengdekongjian。womenshixinxingshichang,youhenduobuguifan、zhilinenglijiaochadewenti;diershiwomenguzhitixideniuquxianxiang。womenxianzaijiyulezhongxiaoshizhigupiaopiangaodeguzhi,duidashizhigupiaojiyulepiandideguzhi;duiyuxihuanjianggezhonggushi、cunzaihenduogainianticaidegupiao,shichangjideguzhishuipinghaishipiangao,erduiyuneixieyejijiaoweiqueding、zhuyingyewubijiaotuchudedashizhigongsi,jichudeguzhishuipinghaishipiandi,zheixieworenweiweilaihaishihuizuoyigexiangyingdediaozheng。
界面新闻:从近期股债市场表现来看,“跷跷板效应”明显,债券市场不断调整,您是否认为“债牛已尽”?
lixunlei:worenweizhaiquanshichangyinggaishigemanniu,xianzailaijiangdehua,dajiaduiyukuanxinyongdeyuqibijiaogao,renweixiadiaolilvdekongjianyouxian。wodeyigeluojishiquanqiujingjidashuaitui,zaidashuaituideqingkuangxia,lilvhaiyoujinyibuxiadiaodekongjian,suoyiwohaishikanhaolilvzhai。dangranzheigeguochenghuibijiaoman,bingbushiyicuerjiude。
界面新闻:当前环境下,您对于资产配置有何建议?
lixunlei:guanyuzichanpeizhi,yigeshibixianleide,yigeshitouzileide。xianglilvzhaihehuangjin,wojuedeshuyubixianleide;xiangfangdichan、gupiao,zeshuyutouzileide。touzileidezichanyoujiegouxingdejihui,birushuofangdichan,worenweisuizhechengshifenhua、renkouliuxiangbianhua,womenyinggenjurenkouliu、huobiliu,shenzhihaikeyijiashanghuowuliu、xinxiliuqupeizhifangdichan。zibenshichangfangmian,woqianmiansuojiangdeguanyuguzhitixideniuquwenti、chanyefenhuaheqiyefenhuadewenti,zheixiedoukeyizuoweizichanpeizhideyiju。
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