文|财经琦观

2021nianchu，yiweipengyouxiangwoxunqiukuaixiaosaidaodechuangyejianyi。

womenjianmianliaoleyici，yiwokandaodeshijiao，bangtafenxileyixiexingyedejibenluoji。fenbiehouzailushang，woyouzhaoleruoganxinxiaofeideyanbaoziliaofajileta。

——“buyaozhijiefourenpengyouyijingjuedinghaodefangxiangjuece。yitadangxiadesuqiuweizhu，zailisuonengjidefanweineitigongzhichijiuhaole。”

nianqingshichilexiekuihou，wozhujianfansichulezheiyangyitiaojiaoyouzhunze。

raoshiruci，wohaishirenbuzhuzaizhongjiantileyiju：“xinxiaofeisaidaoguore，jichubulao，toujijiyudaoshimandade。”

shubuxiangshigeyinian，toujichuangkouyerucixunjiediguanbile。

01、降温脉络 

从何开启的呢？

春江水暖鸭先知。

diyibodayueshizai2021nian7yue，shoudangqichongdegedianshangpingtaide“618”chengji，bulixiangshiyifangmian，zuidadehouguohaishirangtouzifangdaguimoyishidaole“chanshui”decunzai。

zheizhong“buduijing”deganjue，mingxianfangmanlezibenfanggongchenglvedidejiaobu，suihoushuangshiyideqingkuang，youshitongyangluojideercishunyan。

jutongji，2021nian8yue，guoneixinxiaofeilingyutourongzishijiangongji127qi，huanbi7yue153qihuiluo17%。qizhong，yigongburongzijinedexiangmugong93qi，yiyuanjirongzixiangmu27qi，xiangbi7yuede42qixiajiangle35%。

yishangliangbojiedian，zhuyaofanweihaixiandingzaicongyezhezhijian，waibudazhongshangqiemeiyoumingxiandeganzhi。

2021niandi，toubuzhuboweiyatoushuibeifa13.4yidexinwenzhenjinglesuoyouren，cishiyixiexiangduibijiaominruidepengyou（feicongyezhe）kaishichajuedao：“xinxiaofeisaidaoyaobiantian”。

紧接着新年伊始。

xichacaiyuan，wunianzhongjiang；

haidilaoguandian，chayanyuesedingdingqunzhong，gaoguanyuyuangongyinxinziwentibaofazhijiechongtu；

wanghongcanyinpinpaiwenheyoudacaiyuan，bufenbumenbeicaibilizai60%yishang，meiyounianzhongjiang，jixiaojiangjinyanqi；

suizheyizhuangzhuangxinwendebaochu，xinxiaofeidejiongpojiuzheiyangbeixiankaigaizi，chiluoluodibaizailegongzhongmianqian。

qianjingfangmian，raoshiruci，womenyiranduizhongguodexinxiaofeibaochizhechongfendexinxin。

dantieyibandexianshizeyaoqiuwomenquanpanjieshoubinglijiejiujingfashengleshenme。

yinci，benwenxiwangshulichuyigexiangduihongguandeshijiao，yonglaifuzhulijielianggewenti：

1. zhongguodexinxiaofeimuqianzhengchuyuzenyangdelishijieduan？

2. xinxiaofeidafangyicaideqiantitiaojianjiujingshishenme？

02、新消费的三足支柱 

2022nianyuandan，womenzhaolikaileyigexiliedakeng。

yi“hulianwangxingye2022niandezhanwangyuce”weizhuti，xianhoutuichulesipiandegaojian，gongjiliangwanyuzi。

zongtilaikan，gaixiliefugailedangxiazibenshichangsuoguanxindedaduoshuremengongsi，congxinnengyuan、daozhinengyingjian、zaidaohulianwangpingtaiyijineirongxingyedengzhuduomenlei，doufenbieyijutigongsiweizhuashou，jinxinglezhanwangfenxi。

weiduxinxiaofeisaidaowanquanmeiyouti。

kaolvdaogaisaidaozaiguoquliangnianlaidejidashengliang，chaogaoguanzhudu，yijiduizibenshichangdeyingxiangli，womenzuizhonghaishizaidisanpianjieweichutebiejiashanglezheiyangyiduanfenxi。

jiezhuxinnengyuanhexiaomi，womenchanshuleshengchanlihegaoduanzhizaoweiwang。

jiezhujingdong、meituan，womenqiangdiaoleshehuijiazhiweixian，bingqiezhongdianqiangdiaoleshixiaoxinghefusheguangdudejiazhi。

jiezhutengxunheaiqiyi，womentantaolewenhuachanye、xunichanyedengjingshencengmiandefazhanfangxiang。

qizhong，guanyuxinxiaofeiwomenbingmeiyoujizhongtiji，danqishizaiyishangsandianzhongjunyoubutongchengdudetantao。

yigewentiliujigeweisikao：suoweidepinpaijiazhi，jiujingshijishugouzaode？haishixuanchuan+wenhuafuyudachengde？yihuoshiduishehuishenghuopinzhidequanmiantisheng，jinerxingchengdeminjiankoubei？

jiyuci，womenrenweixinxiaofeidefengkourengweizhenzhenglailin。

congjichunengli，chanyejiegou，xiaofeiwenhuatixifangmianlaikan，muqianrengjiushijiaoxiaxufu。

suizhezhuanyehua、jingxihuayanjiudetuijin，gegexingyesaidaozhijianderenzhibileiyezaibuduanleigao。

zheiqizhongdehaochuzibubishuo，danguoyushenrudexijieyanjiu，yequeshihuizaimouzhongchengdushangdailaishijiaodezhaihua。

zaixingyedegaosufazhanjieduan，biruyanxiadexinnengyuansaidao，xingyeneibubenshenjiujubeizhejidadeshengmingli，qiexijiefangxiangheshangyegejumeifenzhongdouzaifashengzhejudabianhua，zaizheizhongqingkuangxiakuaxingyeyanjiuxiangduibuneimezhongyao。

danzaixingyefazhandemengyaqi（ruxinxiaofei）huoshuaituiqi（rupingtaixinghulianwang），hongguanyinsujiuhuibanyangengjiazhongyaodequanzhongjiaose。

womenlilaizhuzhangjingjijiegouzhongdegegehuanjiezhijiancunzaizhejidadejiaohuguanxi，zheizhongxianghuyingxiangyouqihuizaixingyejiezoubianhuazhijifahuichugengweimingxiandezuoyong。

huidaoxinxiaofeisaidao，womenrenwei，zaidangxiadelishijieduan，zhongguodexinxiaofeisaidaozhuyaoyingkansangeweidudeyingxiang。

diyigeweidushiqian。shuichizhongdeqian，liutongzhongdeqian，birushehuixiaofeipinlingshouzonge，juminrenjunkezhipeishouru，zheishiyiqiexiaofeidejibenqiantitiaojian。

jingfangwen，daduoshuxinxiaofeisaidaoxiangguancongyezhedourenweizheiyidianshidaozhixingyeyulengdezuidayuanyin。

diergeweidushiqudao。xuanfaqudao，jiaoyiqudao，diantiguanggaohongzhayehao，bijizhongcaoyehao，toubuzhubozhibodaihuoyehao，zheishixinxiaofeikuaisujujiqiqishinengdeyuantouzhuashou，yeshiguoqujinianshijianlibuduanbeiwajuetansuodezhongdianfangxiang。

zuijinjinianxinxiaofeisaidaodezhuti，huozheshuotmtlingyuyanjiuzhezhongdianguanzhudelingyu，jiushizheiyibufendeneirong。

zaitantaoneirongpingtaideguzhishangxianshi，xiangguanqudaoduixinxiaofeisaidaonengchanshengduodadejiazhifuneng，yijingchengweilezuizhongyaodepanduanbiaozhun，shenzhimeiyouzhiyi。

xingyezongjie：5000pianxiaohongshu+2000pianzhihuwenda+chaojitoubuzhubodaihuo=xinxiaofeipinpaibaokuan

disangeweidushiwenhua。guanyuzheiyidianxingyetantaoxiangduijiaoshao，zheiyeshiwomenrenweixinxiaofeisaidaojichubulao，jiaoxiaxufudezhongyaoyuanyinzhiyi。

shuodezaizhibaiyixie，guoneiwenyuneirongxingyedejidalakua，shixinxiaofeiwufajueqidezhongdapingjing。

womenrenwei，zhenzhengdexinxiaofeishiyipengjiweijiaoguidanmeidaojingyandehuaduo，shangxianjigao，danqiantitiaojianyezuiweikeke。

pangdadexiaofeishichang，duoyuandechudashouduan，yijijiqiangdewenhuazhenghe/shuchunengli，queyibuke。

zheiqizhong，diyiweidujuedingxiaxian，dierweidujuedingxiaolv，disanweidujuedingshangxian。

03、泡沫是如何形成的？ 

2021nianzhiqian，womenzhenggexinxiaofeisaidaosuochudebeijinghuanjing，shidiyiweidushangke，dierweidupengbofazhanshenzhibaohe，disanweidushendulakuadezheiyangyigezongjumian。

youyudierweidudechixufazhan，waijiaqitaguoqudelanhaixingye（hulianwang）zaoyupingjing，xinxiaofeiyinglaileyigekuaisufazhandeshiqi。

danzonghekaolvdaodiyiweidude“shenshuiqu”，disanweidudeguoyuzaogao，yushiwomenzaidangshijiurenweizhenggesaidaojichubulao，zaizibendecuishengxia，zuizhongyidinghuichuxian“gailougaidaoyiban，turanfaxianshangbuqudantiziyebeichele”dejiongpojingdi。

yincimianduirexinmanhuaideyouren，wozhinengshuoyiju“qupiantouzifangdeqianba，shihetouji”。

yaozhidao，dierweidudebaohebingbuhuichanshengxindejiazhi，tazhishizaidangqianxianyouxiaofeishuizhundekuangjiazhineijiasuwajue，dachengchongfenfahuizhongguoxiaofeiqiannengdemude。

zheizhongjuxianxing，shidechuangyezheyoushihoulianchuiniudouhenshouxianzhi。

naixuedechachuangshirenzhaolingaosutouzifang：“weilainaichahuichengweiyizhongshenghuofangshi，yitianbuzhiheyibei，yigelibaihesansibei。”

paokaizheijuhualideshuxuecaodian，xinxiaofeilingyuzheizhong“lengzaobing”dezhiqiufangshi，rangrenyikanjiujuedenaodaifameng。

congzheizhongbiaoshuzhongwomenbunanganshoudao，zheimingxianhaishiyigelingheboyideshichang。

laobaixingshoulidexianqianguding，nengjieshoudexiaofeishuipingxiangduiguding，renshuguding，meigerendeduzirongliangxiangduiwending，yigelibailihelenaichajiuchibuxiagaodian，dianlekafeijiuhennanzaibunaicha。

nihuabinghuadao“yitianbuzhiheyibei”，zheijiuyiweizheqita“yuejixing”kuaixiaoyinpin，qimayaobeizannaichadajunjigandiaoyibanyishang。

womenshuosuoyoudexinxiaofeisaidaochuangyezhehetouzizhe，zhangqilaikanyidingdoushijiandingkanduozhongguode，qishijiushizheigejibenluoji。

guobiandale，dajiayiqiqulaoroucaibuhuidadetebienankan，fouzeshanglaijiushiyiju“quanguorenmintiantianjiwohenaichaqu，bierendoubiewanle。”

04、泡沫是如何破裂的？ 

henkuai，shouzhiyuyiqingxiaofeichangjingdiejiagerenyiyuandengyinsudexianzhi，zhengge2021niandexiaofeiqingkuangxiangduibujiyuqi，xinxiaofeisaidaodediyiweiduzaoshouzhongji。

huiwang2021nianquannian，shehuixiaofeipinlingshouzongewei440823yiyuan，liangnianpingjunzengsuwei3.9%，chukaidiyijidushouqianyinjishuyingxiang，suihoujigeyuedetongbizengsugengshichixuzoudi。 

qizhong，shangpinlingshouhecanyinshourushuangshuanglianxuxiahua，youqishicanyinxingyeshouyiqingfanfuyingxiang，gengshizai8yue、11yue、12yuechengxianchutongbixiajiangdejumian。

lingyigejiaodulaikan，sherongfangmianyetongyangburongleguan。

zuijinyangxingfabude2022nian1yuefensherongshujuzhong，juminduandaihezhongzhangdaimingxianshousuo，biaomingxiaofeipiruanwentiyijiutuchu。

shujuxianshi，1yuefenjuminbumenxinzengdaikuan8430yiyuan，tongbishaozeng4270yiyuan。qizhong，yushitixiaofeigengjiamiqiedejuminxinzengduandaiyue1000yiyuan，tongbijianshao2272yiyuan，yediyujinwuniantongqilishijunzhi，biaomingshouguoneiyiqingjiazhongyingxiang，fuwuye、xiaofeihuifupianruodaozhijuminxiaofeileirongzixuqiuxiajiang。

chuantongnongyedaguodechuantongbianshiruci：yueshidongdang，yueshiyaojiangdixiaofei，guodongtunliang。

shujuxianshi，1yuefenjumincunkuanduozeng5.41wanyi，tongbiduozeng3.93wanyiyuan。

zaizheiyangdejiegoubeijingxia，yuanbenjiuquetuijueqidexinxiaofeisaidao，shunjianjiubeidahuiyuanxing。

05、破局点不在“消费本身” 

dahuanjingjiangwenhou，“toubuchuanzi”、“banshiyezhuangtai”yijingchenglequanneibiaopei。

dichaoqijian，zongshihuichuxianyixiejiaowangguozhengdeshengyin。

qizhongzuihaoxiaodeyijushizheige：“（xiaofeisaidao）suotoudexiangmubixuyaogenkejixiangguan，youmeiyoumingxiandechuangxinjishubilei，shiwomenpanduanxiaofeixiangmushizuizhongyaodebiaozhunzhiyi。”

zuoweihehuoren，jiyuguanlishangdeyixiekaolv，yongzheijuhuaqugaoyixie“zuodengyouxing”decelve，daoyewukehoufei。

kezuoweixiayijidetouzijinglimenyaozhendexinlezheijuhua，neikongpahuizaoshouhendaderenzhizhemo。

shangyoubujudeluojihenizhiqiandexiaofeiluojishibenzhibutongde，gongyinglianfangxiangzhuyaojiushidashujuheai，yuancailiaotansuodatishinongyesaidaohuoshengwukeji，zaizheshuoqitaqianzaifangxiangbiruc2m，gexinghuadingzhi，yuanyuzhoufangxiang，nagedougenzheixierenguoqusuoshuxidesaidaoluojidouxiangqushenyuan。

xingyeyuleng，quzuozhoubianfuzhubujushifeichangchangjiandexuanze。dan“shentiyijingzhuanxing，zuibaquesibuchengren”dechulifangshi，zhihuituzengqianzaidediaotouchengben。

fenshoubulisuo，fenshouhaibutimian。

huaqianyuexiadeshihouguanrenjiajiaoxiaotiantian，xianzaishishiwuchang，youshuorenjiashi“chunshaoqian，mailiuliang”dediduanluoji。

xianzaizheiniantou，“zibendewuxukuozhang”zhendeshichaojiyehu，shenmeguodoubeideqi。

neiwomendaoyaowenwen，xiaofeisaidaodehexinluojiruguobushi“pinpai↔liuliang↔xianjinliu”dexunhuanzhuanhua，neiyoushishenme？

zheiyilunxinxiaofeidejueqi，benlaijiushipinpaiyingxiaoqudaodeduoyuanhua，tabukaoshaoqian，youkaoshenme？

huiguduanyongpingduanzandechuangyeshi，congxiaobawangdaobubugao，congchenglongdao“mamazaiyebuyongdanxinwodexuexi”，xianhouliangduoyangshiguanggaobiaowang。

suihoudeovliangjiayeshiwanmeijichengleqiyibo，zaiyingxiaoguanggaoshangjuebushouruan，zheixieqiyedechenggong，nandaodoushi“chunshaoqian，mailiuliang”dediduanluojima？

shishishang，zuoweirenleishishangzuigulaodeshangyemoshi，xiaofeisaidaodejibenluojishifeichangqingxide：

1. zenglianglaiyuanyi：jingjidechixupingwenfazhan，keji、shehuibianhuadailaidexinxuqiu；

2. zenglianglaiyuaner：haiwaishichangdekuozhang；

3. yibanqingkuangxia，cunliangzhengduodecaishizhuxuanlv；

qizhong，haiwaishichangdekuozhang，zaiguangyidejiaodulaikanyeshi“cunliangzhengduo”。

zaiduan、zhongqideyigeshijianduanli，rendexuqiushixiangduiwendingde，rendexuqiushiyoubaoheshangxiande，renkoushuliangshixiangduibubiande，zheibiandaozhilezhenggexiaofeishichangconggenershangqukan，shixiangduijingtaide。

yinci，zheizhong“cunliangzhengduo”debujintixianzaiqiyeyuqiyezhijian，haitongshitixianzaileqiyeyuxiaofeizhequntizhijian。

duixiaofeiqiyelaishuo，lirundechixuzengzhanglaiyuanyoulianggemingquedexiandingfangxiang：

1、xiaoliangdetisheng，zaibeihouduiyingdeshitongpinleidecunliangjingzheng，yijikuapinleidexingyejianjingzheng；

2、kedanjiadetisheng，zheigengshixuyaopinpaijiazhidebuduanfuneng；

huidaozhongguoxiaofeishichang，jishuqudongguranshikangzhuangdadao，tajiangzhijiezuoyongyuchengbenduan，jinerpuhuidaogengduoxiaofeiqunti，dancongzibenhuibaolvdejiaodulaikan，fengxiangengda，zhouqigengzhang，zhuanyezhishibileigenggao。

zheyanyushehuijiazhijinerxingchengkoubeixiaoyingdefangshitongyangzhideqidai。ciqianhongxingerkeyinjuankuanyiwaibaohongdefangshijiujilewomenhendadeqifa。

suiranzheiyianlidekechixu，kefuzhixingdourengxushangque，danqizhongyunhandeshangyejiazhifeichangzhidegefangshenrusikao。

biruzaoqixingbakezaimeiguojueqideguocheng（zhu：xingbakemeiguodejueqizhiluhezhongguodejueqizhilu，zouleliangtiaojieranbutongdeluojiluxian），xiangduipingjia，baoheshipudian（yitongyejingzhengweidaijia，tigongjianshaopaidui、kongjiangengzudefuwuyijia），yumeiguobentudeshequmoshishenruqihe，jianshaoguanggaoyingxiaofeiyong，yichaochuxingyebiaozhundechengbenqutouzizhuangxiupinzhishitudachengkoubeichuanbo，zuizhongcainachulaideyige“disankongjian”gainian。

qibenzhijiushicongxiaofeiqieru，dachengduishehuishenghuopinzhidequanmiantisheng。（danzaiguoneiquezouleyitiaoyangpaizigaoduan，youpinweiqingsheluxian）

fanguanguoquliangnianjianwomendewanghongdianpu，weileyingzaochubaokuandejumianbuxihuaqiangurenqupaiqizhangdui，zheishibushiyizhongshebenzhumodejingyinglinian？

zuihou，congzhongjuxianghuituiyan，tangruowomenzhendexiangxinzhongguoweilaihuichuxiankekoukele、naike、adidasidengchaojixiaofeipinpai，neimewomenbixuqingxingyishidaozheiyizhongjumubiaodeqiantitiaojianshishenme。

bukeqidijiang，liningzuidadepingjingshicbashuizhun，antazuidadepingjingjiushizhongguozuqiu。

kekoukeledejueqiyuerzhanqijianmeiguodabingdegaodubangding，bansuizhehaolaiwudianyingfeiwangquanqiugedidexiaofeizhexinlide，haiyouleikesasiqiche、laolishiwanbiao、wanbaolonggangbi。

wenhuaruanshiliwufazhenzhengxiyindaozugoudequanqiuliuliang，neizhongguoxiaofeiyezhinengpingjiezhe“xingjiabi”zaizhongdiduanlingyupaxing。

jishuqudongdemudeshijiangchengben，kewomenxiaofeisaidaodezuidawenti，nandaozhendeshichengbenma？

hei，biewanglemutongxiaoying。