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yumiaojie:renminbihuilvjinniandafangxiang“shishengerbushibian”

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余淼杰:人民币汇率今年大方向“是升而不是贬”

beidaboyatepinjiaoshou、shangwubuzhengcezixunweiyuanyumiaojieyujijinnianrenminbiduimeiyuanbodongqujianzai6.1-6.2zhijian。

图片来源:人民视觉

记者 王玉

beidaboyatepinjiaoshou、shangwubuzhengcezixunweiyuanyumiaojiezhousanbiaoshi,yujijinnianrenminbijiangjixushengzhi,duimeiyuanbodongqujianzai6.1-6.2zhijian。

guoquliangnian,renminbiduimeiyuanshengzhifuduchaoguo9%。duiyujixukanhaorenminbideliyou,yumiaojiejichudediyigeyinsushijingjijibenmian。

“womenjingjizengsubimeiguokuai,yehuirangdajiaduizheigeguojiadeqianligengyouxinxin,suoyirenminbidebizhijiuhuishangsheng。”tazaijieshoumeitiqunfangshishuo。

qici,tabiaoshilishishihuizhongyande。2014nian,renminbiduimeiyuanzuigaoshengzhi6.1,suoyijinnianzaicijiejin6.1fujinshiwanquanyoukenengde。

duiyumeilianchujiaxikenengzaochengrenminbibianzhideshuofa,yumiaojierenweizheimetuiduansuiyouyidingdedaoli,danjutishifoubianzhiqujueyuliangdian,qizhongzuizhongyaodejiushimeilianchudafujiaxideshijiandian。

“ruguodafudujiaxishizaijinniandiyijidudehua,womenkeyikandaorenminbiduanqihuiyouyigebianzhidebodongyali,ruguodafududejiaxishichuxianzaidisanjiduhuozhedisijidu,neimeqishijinnian(renminbi)haishishangsheng,yinweiyouyigeyanchidaoshitijingjideguocheng。”tashuo。

dierdianshizhanzaizhongmeiguanxidejiaodu,yumiaojieshuo,jiaruzhongmeiqidongdierjieduanjingmaoxieyitanpan,renminbibianzhidegailvjiaoxiao。

zaiwanghoukan,tabiaoshi,meiyuanduirenminbidiepo6dekenengxingyebuda,henkenengzai6.0shangfangpaihuaiyiduanshijian。“yaoshuodao5zikaitoudehua,kenengduanqineibutaihui,danshibukenenghuidao7。wojuedeshengdao6.0zuoyou,jiujibenshangdadaolejunhengdezhuangtai。”tashuo。

lingwai,yumiaojierenwei,renminbishengzhibuhuiyingxiangdaozhongguodechukou,suirantongchanglaishuo,yiguohuobishengzhihuidaozhichukouxiajiang,bianzhihuicujinchukouzengjia。

“shengzhidehuachanpinjiubiandegengguile,bierenjiubuyuanyimaile。danshi,hexinshiwomenyinggaikandaoyingxiangchukouzuizhongyaodeyinsushishichangdexuqiu,huilvzhishiyingxiangchukoudeyigeyinsu,danbushizuizhongyaodeyinsu。”tashuo。

tazhichu,2005nianzhongguoqidongrenminbihuilvxingchengjizhigaigeshi,meiyuanduirenminbihuilvzai8.27,xianzaimeiyuanduirenminbihuilvshi6.3zuoyou,renminbishengzhifuduchaoguo30%。danshi,zhongguochukouzi2009nianqijiushiquanqiudiyi,yejiushishuo,suiranrenminbizaishengzhi,danwoguodechukoubingmeiyouxiajiang。

“huangejiaodulaixiang,bushishuorenminbishengzhichukoujiuhuixiajiang,ershishuoruguorenminbibushengzhidehua,zhongguodechukouhuishangshengdegengkuai。”yumiaojieshuo。

duiyujinniandewaimaoqingkuang,tabiaoshi,youyugaojishudeyingxiang,jinniandejinchukouzengsukenenghuifanghuan,danshijinchukoumaoyizongekenenghequnianchabuduo,zai6wanyimeiyuanzuoyou。

jinkouhechukouzhijian,yumiaojiegengkanhaochukou。tabiaoshi,kaolvdaodangqiandiyuanzhengzhichongtujiaju,quanqiugongyinglianduanlian、duandianzengduodebeijingxia,zhongguoquanchanyeliandeyoushijianggengjiamingxian,huanyanzhi,qitaguojiajianggengjiayilaizhongguodeshengchan。

ciwai,quyuquanmianjingjihuobanguanxixieding(rcep)deluodiduiwoguochukoulaishuoyeshiyidalihao。“youyuxiedingzhongde15geguojiazhuyaoshidongmengguojiaweizhu,erdongmengguojiazhanzhongguowaimaodebizhongxianzaishi14%-15%,suoyiyoulercep,zheijiuxiangdangyushiwomendehouhuayuan。”tashuo。

未经正式授权严禁转载本文,侵权必究。

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余淼杰:人民币汇率今年大方向“是升而不是贬”

beidaboyatepinjiaoshou、shangwubuzhengcezixunweiyuanyumiaojieyujijinnianrenminbiduimeiyuanbodongqujianzai6.1-6.2zhijian。

图片来源:人民视觉

记者 王玉

beidaboyatepinjiaoshou、shangwubuzhengcezixunweiyuanyumiaojiezhousanbiaoshi,yujijinnianrenminbijiangjixushengzhi,duimeiyuanbodongqujianzai6.1-6.2zhijian。

guoquliangnian,renminbiduimeiyuanshengzhifuduchaoguo9%。duiyujixukanhaorenminbideliyou,yumiaojiejichudediyigeyinsushijingjijibenmian。

“womenjingjizengsubimeiguokuai,yehuirangdajiaduizheigeguojiadeqianligengyouxinxin,suoyirenminbidebizhijiuhuishangsheng。”tazaijieshoumeitiqunfangshishuo。

qici,tabiaoshilishishihuizhongyande。2014nian,renminbiduimeiyuanzuigaoshengzhi6.1,suoyijinnianzaicijiejin6.1fujinshiwanquanyoukenengde。

duiyumeilianchujiaxikenengzaochengrenminbibianzhideshuofa,yumiaojierenweizheimetuiduansuiyouyidingdedaoli,danjutishifoubianzhiqujueyuliangdian,qizhongzuizhongyaodejiushimeilianchudafujiaxideshijiandian。

“ruguodafudujiaxishizaijinniandiyijidudehua,womenkeyikandaorenminbiduanqihuiyouyigebianzhidebodongyali,ruguodafududejiaxishichuxianzaidisanjiduhuozhedisijidu,neimeqishijinnian(renminbi)haishishangsheng,yinweiyouyigeyanchidaoshitijingjideguocheng。”tashuo。

dierdianshizhanzaizhongmeiguanxidejiaodu,yumiaojieshuo,jiaruzhongmeiqidongdierjieduanjingmaoxieyitanpan,renminbibianzhidegailvjiaoxiao。

zaiwanghoukan,tabiaoshi,meiyuanduirenminbidiepo6dekenengxingyebuda,henkenengzai6.0shangfangpaihuaiyiduanshijian。“yaoshuodao5zikaitoudehua,kenengduanqineibutaihui,danshibukenenghuidao7。wojuedeshengdao6.0zuoyou,jiujibenshangdadaolejunhengdezhuangtai。”tashuo。

lingwai,yumiaojierenwei,renminbishengzhibuhuiyingxiangdaozhongguodechukou,suirantongchanglaishuo,yiguohuobishengzhihuidaozhichukouxiajiang,bianzhihuicujinchukouzengjia。

“shengzhidehuachanpinjiubiandegengguile,bierenjiubuyuanyimaile。danshi,hexinshiwomenyinggaikandaoyingxiangchukouzuizhongyaodeyinsushishichangdexuqiu,huilvzhishiyingxiangchukoudeyigeyinsu,danbushizuizhongyaodeyinsu。”tashuo。

tazhichu,2005nianzhongguoqidongrenminbihuilvxingchengjizhigaigeshi,meiyuanduirenminbihuilvzai8.27,xianzaimeiyuanduirenminbihuilvshi6.3zuoyou,renminbishengzhifuduchaoguo30%。danshi,zhongguochukouzi2009nianqijiushiquanqiudiyi,yejiushishuo,suiranrenminbizaishengzhi,danwoguodechukoubingmeiyouxiajiang。

“huangejiaodulaixiang,bushishuorenminbishengzhichukoujiuhuixiajiang,ershishuoruguorenminbibushengzhidehua,zhongguodechukouhuishangshengdegengkuai。”yumiaojieshuo。

duiyujinniandewaimaoqingkuang,tabiaoshi,youyugaojishudeyingxiang,jinniandejinchukouzengsukenenghuifanghuan,danshijinchukoumaoyizongekenenghequnianchabuduo,zai6wanyimeiyuanzuoyou。

jinkouhechukouzhijian,yumiaojiegengkanhaochukou。tabiaoshi,kaolvdaodangqiandiyuanzhengzhichongtujiaju,quanqiugongyinglianduanlian、duandianzengduodebeijingxia,zhongguoquanchanyeliandeyoushijianggengjiamingxian,huanyanzhi,qitaguojiajianggengjiayilaizhongguodeshengchan。

ciwai,quyuquanmianjingjihuobanguanxixieding(rcep)deluodiduiwoguochukoulaishuoyeshiyidalihao。“youyuxiedingzhongde15geguojiazhuyaoshidongmengguojiaweizhu,erdongmengguojiazhanzhongguowaimaodebizhongxianzaishi14%-15%,suoyiyoulercep,zheijiuxiangdangyushiwomendehouhuayuan。”tashuo。

未经正式授权严禁转载本文,侵权必究。