minshengzhengquanshouxihongguanfenxishizhoujunzhibiaoshi，ruguoshuo2020nianhe2021nianshichangdiguzhongguochukou，zhuyaoshidigulelianggeyinsu，yishizhongguogongyinglianwanbeidezhongyaoxing，ershihaiwaicijizhengcesuokaiqidetianliangxiaofeipinxuqiu，neimedigu2022nianzhongguochukou，kenengshicuowupingguleyihouquanqiujingjidegongxuxiufujiezou。

tazhichu，yihouquanqiujingjizhongqi，caizhenghehuobizhengcetuipo，danbingweiruyuqisuoxiangdezhijiexianxingshousuo，zhishaodangqianquanqiuqichexuqiurengxiangdangqiangshi。

haiguanzongshushujuxianshi，jinnian5yue，woguoqichechukoutongbizengsu46.7%，jihuhuifuzhiquniansijidushuiping，fuhetongbiwei47.5%，qichelingbujianbiaoxianyetongyangqiangshi，erqitanaiyongpin，liruxiaofeidianzi、jiajujiadian，5yuechukoutongbidafudiyuyijidu。

zhoujunzhirenwei，qichechukouqiangshidebeihoutixianlequanqiuchanyelianxuqiuqiangyugongji。“meiguoshihaiwaizuidadeqichexiaofeishichang，bulunshiqichejiage，haishiqichekucun，junxianshimuqianhaiwaiqichexuqiufeichangwangsheng。fanguanqicheshengchangongji，haiwaigongyinglianbuwending。jiezhimuqian，demeirisanguodeqicheyuedushengchanhechukouliangjundiyuyiqingzhiqianshuiping。”

tahaibiaoshi，suirandangqianhaiwainaiyongpinxuqiuzhengzaizhubujiangwen，ranerquanqiushengchanrengzaixiufujinchengzhizhong。zhongguochanyelianjiaowanzheng，haiwaihuoyuedeshengchanhuodongtongyangnenggoudaidongzibenpinhezhongjianpinchukou，jinerzhichengwoguochukoudezhengtibiaoxian。

yingdazhengquanfenxishizhenghouchengyebiaoshi，xiabannianzhongguochukouzengsusuihuichengyadanrengyourenxing，errenxingdeyidayuanyinzaiyuwaixu。

tazhichu，congkucunzhouqikan，suiranmeiguolingshoushangjinrubeidongbukucunjieduan，danshiyinggaikandao，meiguozhizaoshangyijiuchuyuzhudongbukucunjieduan。

“4yuemeiguozhizaoshangxiaoshoutongbilude14.01%，er4yuemeiguozhizaoshangkucuntongbilude10.67%，yucitongshi，4yuemeiguozhizaokucunxiaoshoubilude1.48%，suiranjiaoqianzhixiaofushangxing0.01gebaifendian，danshiyijiuchuyubenlunzhouqidedibuqujian。”zhenghouchengcheng。

ciwai，tabiaoshi，congzhizaoyejingqidukan，5yue，meiguoismzhizaoyecaigoujinglirenzhishu（pmi）lude56.1，yiranweiyu55yishangdegaojingqiqujian，jishimeilianchujixujiaxibingqidongsuobiaojincheng，danshinianneimeiguoismzhizaoyepmidagailvhaijiangweiyurongkuxianzhishang。

“dangxiameilianchuhuobishoujin，womenkeyiyujianbenlunquanqiujingjizhouqizhongjiangjinruxiaxingjieduan。raneryihouquanqiujingjigongxuzhifuza，xuyaowomenbaochijingwei。buqingyanmeiguojingjishuaitui，buqingyanmeizhaililvjianding，yebuqingyanzhongguochukoudongnengguaidianxiangxia。”zhoujunzhiqiangdiao。

因素二：美或取消部分对华关税

fenxishibiaoshi，zaimeiguomianlinyuelaiyuedadetongzhangyalidebeijingxia，baidengzhengfuzhengzaiyanjiuquxiaoqianzongtongtelangpushishidebufenduizhongguoshangpinjiazhengdeguanshui，zheiyejiangduixiabannianchukouzengsuxingchengyidingzhicheng。

taipingyangzhengquanshouxihongguanfenxishiyouchunyeduijiemianxinwenbiaoshi，jinqimeiguoduogeguanyuandoubiaoshizhengzaikaolvquxiaoduihuajiazhengdeguanshui，yihuanjiemeiguoguoneidetongzhangyali。ruguoxiabannianmeiguoduihuaxuejianguanshui，yejiangduizhongguochukouchanshengjiegouxingdetuidongzuoyong。

shujuxianshi，2018nianzhongmeijingmaomocakaishiyilai，meiguoduizhongguojinxingleshuciguanshuijiazheng，zhenduideshangpinzongguimofenbiewei500yimeiyuan（fenwei340yimeiyuanhe160yimeiyuanliangpici）、2000yimeiyuanhe3000yimeiyuan（fenwei1400yimeiyuanhe1600yimeiyuanliangpici）。qijinweizhi，500yimeiyuanqingdanhe2000yimeiyuanqingdandeshangpinrengranjiazhengle25%deguanshui；3000yimeiyuanqingdanfenweiabliangbufen，abufen（1400yimeiyuan）jiazhengle7.5%deguanshui，bbufen（1600yimeiyuan）meiyoujiazhengguanshui。

genjuyouchunyeduimeiguozizhongguojinkoushangpindetongji，tazhichu，geqingdandeguanshuijiazhengkaishizhihou，meiguozizhongguojinkoudegaiqingdanzhongdeshangpinzongejunchuxianledafuxiahua，tongbizuidadiefujiejin50%。qizhong3000yimeiyuanqingdanayouyujiazhengshuilvjiaodi，xiahuafuduxiangduijiaodi；er3000yimeiyuanqingdanbyouyumeiyoujiazhengguanshui，suoyimeiyouchuxianmingxiandezengsubianhua。

“zheizhongjiegouxingchayibiaomingmeiguoduizhongguojiazhengdeguanshuiduizhongguoxiangyingchanpindechukouqueshizaochenglefeichangyanzhongdefumianyingxiang。dantongshiyeyiweizhe，ruguomeiguoduizhongguoquxiaobufenhuoquanbujiazhengdeguanshui，duixiangyingdeshangpinchukouyinghuiyoufeichangmingxiandetizhen。”tashuo。

zhenghouchengyechixiangtongkanfa，tarenweiruomeiguoquxiaoqianzongtongtelangpushishidebufenduizhongguoshangpinjiazhengdeguanshui，zheijiangduixiabannianchukouzengsuxingchengyidingzhicheng。

dongfangjinchengguojixinyongpingguyouxiangongsishouxihongguanfenxishiwangqingbiaoshi，meiguoruoquanbuquxiaohuobufenquxiaoduihuajinkoushangpinguanshui，queshihuizaiyidingchengdushanghuanjiexiabannianzhongguochukouzengsufanghuanshitou，danzhengtizuoyongbuyigaogu。

tazhichu，jinnian1-5yue，woguoduimeichukoushangpinjine2368.2yimeiyuan，zhanzhengtichukoude16.9%，zheiyibizhongjiaozhongmeimaoyizhanzhiqiande18-19%yousuoxiajiang。ruomeiguoquxiaoquanbuduihuajinkoushangpinjiazhengdeguanshui，duanqineijiangdaidongwoguoduimeichukoumeinianzengjia400yi-600yimeiyuan，xiangdangyuzhengtichukouzengsujiakuai1.2-1.8gebaifendian。

“zheiyanglaikan，ruomeiguoquxiaobufenduihuajiazhengguanshuicuoshizuizhongluodi，huizaiyidingchengdushanghuanjiexiabannianchukouzengsufanghuanshitou，danzhengtizuoyongbuyigaogu。”tashuo。

因素三：新能源

zhoujunzhizhichu，ewuchongtusuirandailaichuantongnengyuanjiagejuliebodong，ranerzheizailingyigecengmianhuojiasutuidongquanqiuchanyelianzhonggou，zhishaobunengdiguouzhoufazhanxinnengyuandejuexin。

genjuminshengzhengquandeyanjiu，jinniandiyijidu，woguoxinnengyuanlingbujianchukoutongbizengsudadao21.5%，shenzhigaoyuqunian。

“zaixinnengyuanchanyeliandejihusuoyouhuanjie，zhongguochanpindouzhanyoubukehushideshichangfene。yiguangfuchanyelianweili，2019nian，zhongguoguipian、dianchipian、zujianzhanquanqiudechanliangzhanbidouzai8chengyishang。zhongguoxiangguanchanpindechukoujibenjiushihaiwaixinnengyuanxuqiudetongbuzhibiao。”tashuo。

zhanwangweilai，youchunyebiaoshi，congzhangqilaikan，zhongguochukoudezengsudequequyuxiaxing，danshiduanqizhineihainengbaochijiaoqiangderenxing，erqiezaioumeifashengshizhixingshuaituizhiqian，jishixiaxingyebuhuishiduanyashide。

zhoujunzhizegengweijijidibiaoshi，sanjiduzhongguochukoukenengyiranweichiqiangshi，chukouguaidianhuoxuyaosanjiduyihoucaihuixianxian。jibiansijidu，chukoutongbiyeweibiweifu，dagailvweichizaigeweishudetongbizengsu。

“bijingqichechanyelianyuxinnengyuanchanyelianladongzhongguozongchukouyue4gebaifendian。”tabuchongshuo。