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出口订单转移的另一面:全球直接投资布局发生了什么变化?

congquanqiufanweilaikan,fdihuiliufadaguojiajixiangmingxian。

厦门自贸区东渡港物流仓库。图片来源:视觉中国

日本对外直接投资更加偏爱美国和东盟:ribenduiwaizhijietouziguimozuidaderengranshimeiguo。yiqingfashenghou,ribenduimeizhijietouzicunliangdexinzengguimorengranyuanchaoqitajingjiti。guoquliangnian,ribenduimeizhijietouzicunliangzengsujungaoyuribenduishijieheduiwoguozhijietouzidezengzhangsudu。2021nian,ribenduimeizhijietouzicunliangshiduiwoguode4.5bei,xinzengcunliangshiduiwoguode14.7bei;ribenduimeizhijietouzizhanbiyejiao2018、2019nianhuisheng,2021nianshengzhi33.3%。

ciwai,ribenduiwaizhijietouzimingxianxiangdongmeng、yindu、deguo、yingguodengjingjitiqingxie,jinjinian,tamenzairibenduiwaizhijietouzicunliangzhongdebizhongyoubutongchengduzougao,yiqingfashenghou,qishangshengtaishiyemeiyoushoudaoyingxiang,dao2021nian,fenbieshengzhi14.22%、1.55%、2.46%、9.31%。

ribenduiwoguozhijietouziyoulianggebijiaomingxideshidian,yigeshi2012nian,ribenduiwoguozhijietouzizaiqiduiwaizhijietouzizhongdezhanbishengzhiyoutongjiyilaizuigaozhi8.96%,cihouchixuzoudi,dao2019niandadaojieduandibu6.95%;ershiyiqingfasheng,zhanbizaicihuisheng,2021nianshengzhi7.39%,danrengjiao2012nianlishifengzhidi1.57gebaifendian。

yushangshubianhuayizhideshi,ribenduiwoguozhizaoyetouzizaiqiduiguowaizhizaoyetouzizhongdebizhongzai2012niandadaofengzhi13.92%,cihoujinruxiaxingtongdao,2019nianjiangzhijieduanxingdibu11.4%,yiqinghouyousuohuisheng,2021nianshengzhi13.3%;duimeiguozhizaoyetouzizhanbisuiyoufanfu,danzongtizi2012nianshangsheng,2021nianshengzhi29.0%;duidongmengzhizaoyetouzizhanbibianhuayumeiguoxiangjin,2021nianshengzhi19.2%。

guoquliangnian,ribenduimeiguo、duidongmengzhizaoyezhijietouzicunliangdexinzengguimoxianzhugaoyuduiwoguodexinzengguimo,fenbiedadaole2.2bei、1.2bei。

新加坡对外直接投资向欧印倾斜,对美投资占比也在回升:zaiquanqiuofdicunliangzhong,xinjiapozuixinzhanbiwei3.2%,yuribenmingxianbutongdeshi,xinjiapoduiwaizhijietouzigengpianaiouzhouheyindu。2019-2020nianouzhouzaiqiduiwaizhijietouzizhongdezhanbiyijingchaoguoleqiduidongmengzhijietouzidezhanbi;duidongmengzhanbiyousuoxiajiang,duiwoguozhanbiyeyousuoxiajiang,erduimeiguoheyinduzhanbizemingxianshangsheng。2020nian,dongmeng、zhongguodaluzaixinjiapoduiwaizhijietouzizhongdebizhongfenbiewei18.4%、14.4%,yulishigaodianxiangbi,fenbiexiajiangle5.3、4.6gebaifendian,meiguo、yinduzhanbifenbiewei3.7%、6.4%,jiao2011nianfenbieshangshengle3.9、2.1gebaifendian。

我国对外直接投资在持续增长的同时,结构也出现变化,制造业比重明显上升:yifangmian,woguoduiwaizhijietouzizengzhangsudujinniansuiyinguojijingmaoguanxichuxianjiaodabianhua,danjiezhi2020nianjibenweichizai9%yishang。2018nian,woguoduiwaizhijietouzizengsucong2017niande33.3%dafujiangzhi9.6%,2019nianyilaizengsuyousuohuifu,2020nianlude17.4%。jiezhi2020nian,woguoduiwaizhijietouzicunliangyijingchaoguo2.58wanyi,shi2006niande28.5bei。

lingyifangmian,zaiwoguoduiwaizhijietouzizhong,jinguanzhanbizuidadeshizulinheshangwufuwuye,qiejinnianbianhuaxiangduibuda,2020nianrengzai32%yishang,danqitazhuyaoxingyeyijingchuxianmingxiandiaozheng——caikuangye、jinrongyezhanbixianzhuxiajiang,2020nianzhanbiyiciwei6.8%、10.5%,jiaolishifengzhifenbiexiajiang9.7、9.5gebaifendian;xinxichuanshu、jisuanjifuwuheruanjianyezhanbiyuzhizaoyezhanbimingxianshangsheng,2020nianzhanbifenbiewei11.5%、10.8%,yu2015nianxiangbi,fenbieshangshengle10.1、4.8gebaifendian。

jiuchengjiewoguochanyezhuanyideremendiqu——dongmengeryan,suiranzaiwoguoduiwaizhijietouzizhongdezhanbiyousuoxiajiang,cong2015niangaodian5.7%jiangzhi2020nian4.9%,dantongqizhijietouzicunliangrengfanleyifan。congjutijingjitikan,woguoduiyuenan、taiguo、malaixiyadetouzizhanbijunyoubutongchengdushangsheng,qiecunliangzengzhangfudukeguan,yu2015nianxiangbi,fenbiezengzhangle154.2%、156.6%、357.7%,duiyindunixiyazhanbibianhuasuiranbuda,dantouzicunliangbi2015nianshangshengle120.8%。

woguoduinanyadiquzhijietouzizongtixianzhuxiaoyuduidongmengtouzi。qizhong,duiyinduzhijietouzibujinzhanbichixuxiajiang,cunliangyezi2016nianfengzhixiajiangle33%,yuzhixiangfandeshi,woguoduimengjialaguozhijietouzizengzhangjiaoweixianzhu,wulunshizhanbishangshengfuduhaishicunliangzengfujunzaiyazhoudiqujudisanwei,2020nianduimengtouzicunliangjiao2015nianzengzhangle807.8%。

chuxianggang、kaiman、weierjingzhiwai,woguoduiwaizhijietouzizhanbijiaogaodejingjiticonggaodaodi、qiansanweiyiciweioumeng、meiguo、xinjiapo,jinniantouzicunliangguimosuiyoushangsheng,danzhanbijunjiao2015nianqianhoudefengzhiyoubutongchengduxiajiang,2020nianfenbiejiangzhi3.2%、3.1%、2.3%。

zaiwoguoduimeiguo、duidongmeng、duioumengdezhijietouzizhong,zhizaoyedoushizhongdiantouzilingyu,jinnianzhanbijunyoumingxiantaisheng。jutilaikan,oumengzhizaoyezaiwoguoduiqizhijietouzizhongdebizhongzi2015nianyilaichixuzougao,2020nianshengzhi34.7%delishixingao,meiguozhizaoyezhanbiyechuxianlexiangtongdebianhua,2020nianshengzhixingao29.3%,dongmengzhizaoyezhanbizi2012nianjijinrushangshengtongdao,2020nianchuangxia25.4%dexingao。

我国吸收的外国直接投资行业结构也有明显变化:congwaishangzhijietouzizengzhangqingkuanglaikan,woguorengranshouwaishangqinglai,zengzhangsudujiaoyiqingqianxianzhutaisheng。2022nian8yuedangyueshijiliyongwaizijinetongbizengsusuiranjiao7yuexiajiangyu8gebaifendian,dandangyuetongbi11.0%dezengzhangsudurengyuangaoyuyiqingqiande2019nian,1-8yueleijizengsurenglude20.2%,suijiaoshangniantongqixiajiang7.6gebaifendian、jiaojinnian1-7geyuexiajiang1.3gebaifendian,danrengyuangaoyu2012-2020niantongqi(-5.1%,9.2%)。

buguo,woguowaishangzhijietouzizhuyaolaiyuanguojiegouyousuobianhua。laiziwoguoxianggangdiqudewaishangzhijietouzizhanbimingxianshangsheng,2021nianyishengzhilishixingao75.9%;laizioumeiriwaizijinyibujianshao、zhanbijinyibuxiajiang,2021nianmeiguo、riben、deguozhanbifenbiewei1.4%、0.96%、2.23%,sanzhezhanbihejiyijingcongbenshijichude21.3%jiangzhi4.6%,guimoyechuyubenshijiyilaidiwei。

waishangduiwoguozhijietouzidexingyejiegouyeyoumingxiandiaozheng。2020nian,zhizaoyedewaishangzhijietouzizhanbiyijingjiangzhi21.5%,jiao2019nianxiajiang4.1gebaifendian,dafudiyu2004nianyoutongjiyilaidefengzhi71.0%,zhizaoyehuodedewaishangzhijietouzishijishiyongjinejiangzhi310yiyuan,yu2001nianxiangdang;yucixiangyingdeshi,waishangzhijietouzidui“pifahelingshouye”、“xinxichuanshu、jisuanjifuwuheruanjianye”、“zulinheshangwufuwuye”detouzijunyoumingxianshangsheng,2020nianhejizhanbishengzhi38.0%,jiao2004nianshangsheng30.6gebaifendian。

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出口订单转移的另一面:全球直接投资布局发生了什么变化?

congquanqiufanweilaikan,fdihuiliufadaguojiajixiangmingxian。

厦门自贸区东渡港物流仓库。图片来源:视觉中国

日本对外直接投资更加偏爱美国和东盟:ribenduiwaizhijietouziguimozuidaderengranshimeiguo。yiqingfashenghou,ribenduimeizhijietouzicunliangdexinzengguimorengranyuanchaoqitajingjiti。guoquliangnian,ribenduimeizhijietouzicunliangzengsujungaoyuribenduishijieheduiwoguozhijietouzidezengzhangsudu。2021nian,ribenduimeizhijietouzicunliangshiduiwoguode4.5bei,xinzengcunliangshiduiwoguode14.7bei;ribenduimeizhijietouzizhanbiyejiao2018、2019nianhuisheng,2021nianshengzhi33.3%。

ciwai,ribenduiwaizhijietouzimingxianxiangdongmeng、yindu、deguo、yingguodengjingjitiqingxie,jinjinian,tamenzairibenduiwaizhijietouzicunliangzhongdebizhongyoubutongchengduzougao,yiqingfashenghou,qishangshengtaishiyemeiyoushoudaoyingxiang,dao2021nian,fenbieshengzhi14.22%、1.55%、2.46%、9.31%。

ribenduiwoguozhijietouziyoulianggebijiaomingxideshidian,yigeshi2012nian,ribenduiwoguozhijietouzizaiqiduiwaizhijietouzizhongdezhanbishengzhiyoutongjiyilaizuigaozhi8.96%,cihouchixuzoudi,dao2019niandadaojieduandibu6.95%;ershiyiqingfasheng,zhanbizaicihuisheng,2021nianshengzhi7.39%,danrengjiao2012nianlishifengzhidi1.57gebaifendian。

yushangshubianhuayizhideshi,ribenduiwoguozhizaoyetouzizaiqiduiguowaizhizaoyetouzizhongdebizhongzai2012niandadaofengzhi13.92%,cihoujinruxiaxingtongdao,2019nianjiangzhijieduanxingdibu11.4%,yiqinghouyousuohuisheng,2021nianshengzhi13.3%;duimeiguozhizaoyetouzizhanbisuiyoufanfu,danzongtizi2012nianshangsheng,2021nianshengzhi29.0%;duidongmengzhizaoyetouzizhanbibianhuayumeiguoxiangjin,2021nianshengzhi19.2%。

guoquliangnian,ribenduimeiguo、duidongmengzhizaoyezhijietouzicunliangdexinzengguimoxianzhugaoyuduiwoguodexinzengguimo,fenbiedadaole2.2bei、1.2bei。

新加坡对外直接投资向欧印倾斜,对美投资占比也在回升:zaiquanqiuofdicunliangzhong,xinjiapozuixinzhanbiwei3.2%,yuribenmingxianbutongdeshi,xinjiapoduiwaizhijietouzigengpianaiouzhouheyindu。2019-2020nianouzhouzaiqiduiwaizhijietouzizhongdezhanbiyijingchaoguoleqiduidongmengzhijietouzidezhanbi;duidongmengzhanbiyousuoxiajiang,duiwoguozhanbiyeyousuoxiajiang,erduimeiguoheyinduzhanbizemingxianshangsheng。2020nian,dongmeng、zhongguodaluzaixinjiapoduiwaizhijietouzizhongdebizhongfenbiewei18.4%、14.4%,yulishigaodianxiangbi,fenbiexiajiangle5.3、4.6gebaifendian,meiguo、yinduzhanbifenbiewei3.7%、6.4%,jiao2011nianfenbieshangshengle3.9、2.1gebaifendian。

我国对外直接投资在持续增长的同时,结构也出现变化,制造业比重明显上升:yifangmian,woguoduiwaizhijietouzizengzhangsudujinniansuiyinguojijingmaoguanxichuxianjiaodabianhua,danjiezhi2020nianjibenweichizai9%yishang。2018nian,woguoduiwaizhijietouzizengsucong2017niande33.3%dafujiangzhi9.6%,2019nianyilaizengsuyousuohuifu,2020nianlude17.4%。jiezhi2020nian,woguoduiwaizhijietouzicunliangyijingchaoguo2.58wanyi,shi2006niande28.5bei。

lingyifangmian,zaiwoguoduiwaizhijietouzizhong,jinguanzhanbizuidadeshizulinheshangwufuwuye,qiejinnianbianhuaxiangduibuda,2020nianrengzai32%yishang,danqitazhuyaoxingyeyijingchuxianmingxiandiaozheng——caikuangye、jinrongyezhanbixianzhuxiajiang,2020nianzhanbiyiciwei6.8%、10.5%,jiaolishifengzhifenbiexiajiang9.7、9.5gebaifendian;xinxichuanshu、jisuanjifuwuheruanjianyezhanbiyuzhizaoyezhanbimingxianshangsheng,2020nianzhanbifenbiewei11.5%、10.8%,yu2015nianxiangbi,fenbieshangshengle10.1、4.8gebaifendian。

jiuchengjiewoguochanyezhuanyideremendiqu——dongmengeryan,suiranzaiwoguoduiwaizhijietouzizhongdezhanbiyousuoxiajiang,cong2015niangaodian5.7%jiangzhi2020nian4.9%,dantongqizhijietouzicunliangrengfanleyifan。congjutijingjitikan,woguoduiyuenan、taiguo、malaixiyadetouzizhanbijunyoubutongchengdushangsheng,qiecunliangzengzhangfudukeguan,yu2015nianxiangbi,fenbiezengzhangle154.2%、156.6%、357.7%,duiyindunixiyazhanbibianhuasuiranbuda,dantouzicunliangbi2015nianshangshengle120.8%。

woguoduinanyadiquzhijietouzizongtixianzhuxiaoyuduidongmengtouzi。qizhong,duiyinduzhijietouzibujinzhanbichixuxiajiang,cunliangyezi2016nianfengzhixiajiangle33%,yuzhixiangfandeshi,woguoduimengjialaguozhijietouzizengzhangjiaoweixianzhu,wulunshizhanbishangshengfuduhaishicunliangzengfujunzaiyazhoudiqujudisanwei,2020nianduimengtouzicunliangjiao2015nianzengzhangle807.8%。

chuxianggang、kaiman、weierjingzhiwai,woguoduiwaizhijietouzizhanbijiaogaodejingjiticonggaodaodi、qiansanweiyiciweioumeng、meiguo、xinjiapo,jinniantouzicunliangguimosuiyoushangsheng,danzhanbijunjiao2015nianqianhoudefengzhiyoubutongchengduxiajiang,2020nianfenbiejiangzhi3.2%、3.1%、2.3%。

zaiwoguoduimeiguo、duidongmeng、duioumengdezhijietouzizhong,zhizaoyedoushizhongdiantouzilingyu,jinnianzhanbijunyoumingxiantaisheng。jutilaikan,oumengzhizaoyezaiwoguoduiqizhijietouzizhongdebizhongzi2015nianyilaichixuzougao,2020nianshengzhi34.7%delishixingao,meiguozhizaoyezhanbiyechuxianlexiangtongdebianhua,2020nianshengzhixingao29.3%,dongmengzhizaoyezhanbizi2012nianjijinrushangshengtongdao,2020nianchuangxia25.4%dexingao。

我国吸收的外国直接投资行业结构也有明显变化:congwaishangzhijietouzizengzhangqingkuanglaikan,woguorengranshouwaishangqinglai,zengzhangsudujiaoyiqingqianxianzhutaisheng。2022nian8yuedangyueshijiliyongwaizijinetongbizengsusuiranjiao7yuexiajiangyu8gebaifendian,dandangyuetongbi11.0%dezengzhangsudurengyuangaoyuyiqingqiande2019nian,1-8yueleijizengsurenglude20.2%,suijiaoshangniantongqixiajiang7.6gebaifendian、jiaojinnian1-7geyuexiajiang1.3gebaifendian,danrengyuangaoyu2012-2020niantongqi(-5.1%,9.2%)。

buguo,woguowaishangzhijietouzizhuyaolaiyuanguojiegouyousuobianhua。laiziwoguoxianggangdiqudewaishangzhijietouzizhanbimingxianshangsheng,2021nianyishengzhilishixingao75.9%;laizioumeiriwaizijinyibujianshao、zhanbijinyibuxiajiang,2021nianmeiguo、riben、deguozhanbifenbiewei1.4%、0.96%、2.23%,sanzhezhanbihejiyijingcongbenshijichude21.3%jiangzhi4.6%,guimoyechuyubenshijiyilaidiwei。

waishangduiwoguozhijietouzidexingyejiegouyeyoumingxiandiaozheng。2020nian,zhizaoyedewaishangzhijietouzizhanbiyijingjiangzhi21.5%,jiao2019nianxiajiang4.1gebaifendian,dafudiyu2004nianyoutongjiyilaidefengzhi71.0%,zhizaoyehuodedewaishangzhijietouzishijishiyongjinejiangzhi310yiyuan,yu2001nianxiangdang;yucixiangyingdeshi,waishangzhijietouzidui“pifahelingshouye”、“xinxichuanshu、jisuanjifuwuheruanjianye”、“zulinheshangwufuwuye”detouzijunyoumingxianshangsheng,2020nianhejizhanbishengzhi38.0%,jiao2004nianshangsheng30.6gebaifendian。

未经正式授权严禁转载本文,侵权必究。