wen|tianxiawangshang yechen zhanghangying yangyuexin wangshiqi

编辑|王诗琪

当2023年的太阳升起，我们站在十字路口，回望2022年。

没有人会怀疑，刚刚过去的这一年，是跌宕起伏的一年，尤其对电商人而言。一位商家说，过去的365天，每天都像开盲盒。

年初，疫情反复、物流受限、地缘冲突，相互交织，构成了困难的底色。年底，政策放开，各地政企“包机出海”抢订单，浙江打响“第一枪”，满载而归。

这一年的商家出海，百转千回之后迎来曙光。这一年的直播电商，从低价卖货到情感连接，跑步进入下半场。这一年的中国工厂，抓住冬奥会与世界杯，亮相每一个世界舞台。每个人的具体生活，构成了丰富的商业图景，也连成了社会记忆。

岁末年初，天下网商推出【变局2022】，记录商家与平台的一年。电商人，穿越2022的惶惑，带着灵活与坚韧，等待2023年的春天。

ruguorangchuhaishangjiamenmiaohuiyitiaoshengyiquxian，guoquyiniandejingkuangkenengrutongguoshancheban，conggaogemengjindaohanyizhaxian，zaidaoshuguangchuxian。cong2022nian9yue、10yuefenkaishi，zhongguochukouzongzhitongbizengsukaishidiedaogeweishu，er2021niandetongyishiqi，zheiyishuzhihaizai20%-30%degaowei。

数据来源 商务部

2021nian，yinweichuhaidingdanjizeng，hangyun“yichuannanqiu”，yunfeishuizhangchuangao，congzhongguoshanghaizhimeiguoluoshanji，yigebiaozhunjizhuangxianghuojudeyunfeizuigaoshijingdadaofengkuangde2wanmeiyuan；er2022nianzejizhuanzhixia，cong“huozhaochuan”dao“chuanzhaohuo”，haiyunyunfeiyiluduanyashixiadie，12yuedejiageyidiyu2000meiyuan，budaoyuanlaide1/10。

guoqude2022，zaijinglifanhuahonglihou，zhongguochuhaishangjiayezhengzaichuansuojingji。wulunshiyiqing、quanqiuhuanjingfengyuntubiandailaide“heitiane”，haishiliuliangfeiyongshangzhang、pingtaihegui、dijiaqingxiaodeng“huixiniu”，chuhaizhilubingfeishuntu。shangjiademubiaoshixingchendahai，danchuhainongchaoermenbixugengxiantingdaochaoshuizhuanxiangdeshengyin，zailiulianghexinxidehongliuzhongchuansuo，zhuazhushaozongjishidejihui，zhaodaoxindeyingxuzhidi。

出海商家这一年：“黑天鹅”与“灰犀牛”

jiedianhuashi，zhejiangyiwudeneiyishangrenzhangdanlihaibushikesou。tazheixietianguodehenburongyi。jinjiri，tashezaiguizhoudegongchangluxuyougongrenfashao、kesou，channengyincixiajiangleyue60%，bufenchuhaihuopinxuyanchiyigechuanqicainengjiaofu。yigechuanqiyueshiyizhou，ertongchang，nianweilianzheniantou，youshixiangduidexiaofeigaofeng，guowaiyaodeji、guoneishangjiayedejinkuailvyue。

zhangdanlihezhangfuzhangyingminzuoneikushengyiqijia，zaiguangdongheguizhougeyouyigegongchang，fuzeshengchan、zuhuo、dabao，zaijizhongcongyiwuchukou。meiniantamenyaojiangyue6000wanjianwuhenneiyikumaidaoquanqiu80duogeguojiahediqu。

mianduicicichannengdechongji，zhangdanlimangquebuluan，tayimianyukehugoutong，lingyimianjinjishangxianbingjiajizhi、diaopeirenshou。rangtaqingxingdeshi，gongchangyuangongshuyufenpiciganran，7dao10tiankangfuhoufangang，channengyoukeyixunsugenshang。

guoqusannianduo，yuzhangdanliyiyangdechuhaishangjiamen，xuehuileyuyiqinggongcun，tamenshuo，meigedingdandoulaizhibuyi，pinjinquanliyeyaowancheng。

nihuitingdaohenduoleisidegushi——2022nian3yue，youshangjiaganzaishanghaiquanchengjingmoqianyike，shoushipugaigandaogongchang，chizhuzaigongchang，zhidaoanshifahuo；zheiyinian8yue，yiwuyecengyinyiqingquanchengjingmo，duanduanyizhoushijian，youshangjiayibiangeli、yibianjiedan、yibiangangong；neishi，zhangdanlicangkulijiyazheyue180wanyuanhuowufabuchuqu，shengyizanting，dantayijiuzhunshijigongrenfalegongzi，baozhenggongchangyiqieruchang。

张丹丽的工厂（天下网商 叶晨/摄）

mianduiyiqingzheiyituruqilaide“heitiane”，shangjiamenshangkelinghuoyingbian。erguoqude2022nian，zaiyamaxun、paypaldengyipipingtaidejizhongzhengzhixia，bufenyemanshengzhangdechuhaishangjia，yebaoluchuhegui、qinquanwenti，bushaorenweicijiaochulecantongdexuefei，kaishirenzhenshenshihenggenzaiqianjinlushangde“huixiniu”。

2022niande3yue、6yue，quanqiuzuidakuajingzhifupingtaipaypalzhenduizhongguoquzhanghaojinxingzhuanxiangzhengzhixingdong，dapizhongguodulizhanmaijiadepaypalzhanghuzijinyincibeidongjie，shenzhibeikouchu。yinshejijineguoda、quefahuakouzijindejutishuoming、quefafankuihegoutongqudao，2022nian7yue，maijiamencengzhankaiyichanglianheweiquan，danzuizhongwujierzhong。zaijinglikuangrichijiudejiangchihedengdaihou，maijiamendaduoyijingfangqi。

youmaijiayincianrantuichang，kuajingdulizhanmaijiaxiaohebeidongjie1000duowanyuanhou，weiquanwuguo，zhanghuhaichixubeiqing。tagaosu《tianxiawangshang》，muqiangongsiyewuyijingzanting，gongsiyeyijingfangjia。

yeyoumaijiazhaodaolexinchulu。maijiaxiaozhengcengjijizuzhixiangpaypalweiquan，tazuizhongjuedingjieshoushishi。“buxiangzheijianshile，zhaoqitajihui”。xianzai，tongguotiktokshejiaoyingxiaoyinliu，xiaozhengmianxiangmeiguoshichangdecaizhuangdulizhanshengyiyoujianyouqise。

需求疲软订单下滑，出海亟需新解法

zhangdanlimengengdanxinde，shizhengtihaiwaixuqiudepiruan。

zhangdanlimingxianganjuedao，jigeyueqiankaishi，haiwaikehuxiaohuosudukaishibianman，2022nian9、10yuefenshi，gongsineibujiyadechengpinneikuduichengleshan，nengzhuangmanersanshitiaojizhuangxianghuoju，cangkulihaiyouyidaduibanchengpin。“qianliangnianguoneishangjiakenengdouzaipinmingfahuo，daozhibuguanwomenshoushanghaishikehudeshoushang，kucunliangbijiaoda，jiusuanshigangxupin，yehuiyinglaijieduanxingdeshichangbaohe。”

受访者供图

2022，“diaozheng”“gaibian”chenglezhangdanliguazaizuibiandegaopinci。weilelalaidingdanjiejuekucun，jinzhualiguojizhan11niandezhangdanli“potianhuang”dizuoqilezhibo，zaixianshangxiangguowaikeshangjieshaochanpin、gongchangshengchanxian，meizhouzhishaozhibo4chang，meichangchangguanyue500ren，yichangxialaipingjunyueyou20%deguanzhonghuiyaoqiufamulu。“2022niantongguozhibozhuanhua、xingchengjiaodadanchengjiaodezhongdaxingmaijia，jiaqilaiyinggaiyou200duowei。”

buzhiyiwu。2022nian7yue，jiadianshengtaiquanfaqiren、xingdianhulianzongjingliyuxuehuidazaode“cixiyoupinguan”nei，yigeyueneiliankaishuchangzhaoshanghui，zhujiaobaokuotianmao、taobaotejiaban、douyin、woerma、google+、yijikuajingdianshangpingtaideng。shangjiamenjimanlexiaoxiaodehuichang，tamenpoqiedixuyaoyigexinjiefa。

jinjinyinianqian，haibushizheiyangdejingxiang。2021nian，cixiwaimaogongchangjiedingdanjiedaoshouruan，bushaoshangjiadingdanliangzhijiefanbei，manzaihuowudekacheririliuzhuan，jianghuoyunzhiningbogangkou，zaifawangshijiegedi。

erxianzai，yuxuehuishuo，zaicixi，2022niandingdanliangmeiyouxiajiangdewaimaoqiyeshifengmaolinjiao。

zaizhongguoxiaojiadianzhixiang、waimaozhongzhencixi，yuxuehuishigemingren。tashi“changerdai”，yeshicixizuizaoyipitongguoaliguojizhanchuhaideshangjia，2014niankaishibujuyamaxun，bduan、cduanliangshouzhua。cong2021niankaishi，taliyongzijiduonianderenmaiheziyuan，zujian“jiadianshengtaiquan”，bangcixiqiyeduijiehaineiwaidingdan。cong2022nianxiabanniankaishi，zhaoyuxuehuiqiuzhudeshangjiamingxianbianduole。

余雪辉（左二）在慈溪优品馆（受访者供图）

“（2022nian）6yuefenzhiqian，dajiaqishibuchoudingdan，budaoshengsiyouguandeshihouyebuhuihuataiduojinglilaituokuajing。yuanlaidajiadouzaizhaogongren（kuochanneng），xianzaidouzailadingdanyanggongren。”yuxuehuishuo，guoqujinianwaimaodingdanbaozhangbeihou，shibei“touzhi”dexuqiu，erbushaocixiwaimaogongchangyouzaiciqiankuochonglechanneng。channengguosheng、kucunxiaohaodenanti，jiangzaiweilaiyiduanshijiankunraozhetamen。

藏在“十大年度商品”里的新供给

guoqudezheiyinian，zhongguochuhaishangjiazaoyudexuqiupiruan，yibufenyuanyuchannengguoshengdaozhide“kucunweiji”，beihougengshencengcidewentizaiyudiduangongji。suizhekucunxiaohao，haiwaixuqiufusudeguaidianjiangzhi，danyemanshengzhangbunengzhongfu。

aliguojizhanfabude2022niandushidashangpin，fenbieshijiayongtaiyangneng、dianretan、yidongbanfang、xiuxianyangfengshebei、biguachongdianzhuang、jiguangjixie、luyingzhangpeng、shijiebeizhoubian、diandongzixingchehezhijiatie/jiajiemao。

2022nian，ewuchongtushengji，ouzhoushenxiannengyuanweiji，“ouzhourenmaibaozhongguodianretan”dehuatipinpinchongshangresou，quebuzairangzhongguoshangjiajidong。yuxuehuipingjingdishuo，zheizhibuguoshicixijiadianchanyedai2022niandeyigexiaochaqu，duixingyezhengtifazhanmeiyouyingxiang。erzaiyiwu，qiuyiqiuku、baonuanneiyizouhonghaiwai，dangdizhengfu、shangjiadaibiaoquezaibenzouxianggao：bunengyinduanqishichangxuqiubaozengermangmukuodachanneng，kechixudeshengyicaishiweilaizengliang。

yuzhixingchengduibi，2022nianmodekataershijiebei，“zhongguoshangdui”zutuanchuzheng，yinglaigaoguangshike。lvyinchangshangdezuqiu、qiuche、jixiangwu、qiumijin、gongzuorenyuanpeidaideyilakougongpai，naizhichangwaideyidongbanfang，jihuquanbulaizizhongguo。meixizuizhongpengqidalishenbeideyuanmengshikeshenchuandesanxingqiuyi（yuyizheagentinglishishangduodesancishijiebeiguanjun），juesaikaishiqiandeyizhoujiuchuxianzailezhongguozhejiangyiwudegongchangli。

zhongguozhizaomaiquanqiudegushiyijiuxinggan。chuhaishangjiadejimin，buguangshiguanjianshikenengchengjiejinjidingdan，zaigongqibeiyasuodaozhengchangdeyibanshenzhigengshaoshi，yijiupingjielinghuodegongyingliananshijiaohuo，rangkataerdeqiumijinxiang“zhongguozao”；haizaiyutamennengyucexiaofeiqushi，tiqianbeihuo，zhuazhushijiebeideqijiweizhongguodetouyingyi、chongqishafadengkaituoshichang……

haiyouhenduogushikejiang。congweitingxiajiaobudezhongguochuhaishangjia，xiwangboliduanqideshichangbodong，kanqingchaoshuidefangxiang。

中国互联网巨头的跨境电商之战

2022nian，alibabaguojizhanzongcaizhangkuozhongyuchuguozouleyizao，hehenduowaimaoxingyederenyiyang，zheishitasannianlaidiyicichuguo。

zaiouzhouyixieguojia，takandao，dangdiwaimaifuwudeshuipinghaibibushangzhongguo10nianqian“baituandazhan”zhishi，chuxingdache，sijihaihuinageposjishoufei；lingyifangmian，genzhongguodedianshangfazhanxiangbi，bushaozhongguoshangjiadechuhaizhiluyijiuzoudehencufang。zhangkuodechujielun：“zaixuqiu、gongjiliangduan，shuzihuadoudayoukewei。”

zhongguokuajingdianshang20nian，pingtaihua、jingpinhua、pinpaihuaweidashisuoqu。

yixiejixiangyijingxianxian。2022nian，cengzhengheqizhongguoshuqianjianvzhuanggongyingshang，jiangrouxingkuaifandegongyinglianyoushizuodaojizhidechuhai“heima”shein，yekaishichaozheduopinleidepingtaihuafangxiangzhuanxing。haiwaishejiaopingtaideliulianghonglijiejintianhuaban，gaoangdeyinliuchengbenxia，dulizhan“zaochuanchuhai”demoshibuzaichixiang，gengduochuhaishangjiaxuanze“jiechuanchuhai”。

yucitongshi，guoqudeyinian，guoneichuhaishangjiaduiyamaxun、ebaydengchuantongb2czhongxinhuajutouyilaichengdujiangdi，sumaitongdengzhongguob2cpingtaizaiduoguoshichangfeneshixianfanchao。baokuoalibaba、pinduoduo、zijietiaodongzainei，zhongguodehulianwangjutoufenfenchuhai，xijizaihaiwaishichangfuzhiqizaizhongguodechenggong。

2021niandi，alijianghaiwaiyewutishengzhijituanzhanlvecengmian，zheiyeshishiduonianlai，haiwaiyewushoucibeialitishengzhiheguoneilingshou、yunjisuantongdengdediwei。

zaialidechuhaidaqizhong，sumaitonghelazadawuyifahuizheguanjianzuoyong，erzhefengonggeyoucezhong，qizhongsumaitongchixuzuoyouzhongguogongjimaiquanqiu，ershengengdongnanyashichangdelazadazejixuguanchebentuhuacelve。2022nianchu，sumaitongzhenduimaijiaduantuichudiaozhengfangan，tuichuquanxindeaemallsaidao，fuchiyouzhimaijia；erguoqudezheiyinian，alixianglazadajieliansancizhuzi，zengziguimochaoguo16yimeiyuan，zaidongnanyazhiwai，lazadayijiangchujiaoyanshenzhiouzhou。

zaichuhaizheijianshishang，shichangde“xin”shixiangduide。jibianshimeiguo、hanguo、ribenzheiyangxiangduichengshudefadaguojiashichang，yijiuyouxindezengliang。

2022nian9yue，pinduoduokuajingchuhaidianshangpingtaitemushangxian，yi60meifendeerhuan、4meiyuandejiayonganquanshexiangtou、4meiyuandewuxianerji……xunsuzhanlingmeiguodijiashichang。marketplace pulseshujuxianshi，temushangxianduanduan1geyue，jiudengdingmeiguoiosyingyongshangdiangouwuappxiazaibangdiyi；tongnian11yue，tiktokxiaodianyezaimeiguoshichangqiaoranshangxian。

dongnanyazheiyiquanqiuzengzhangzuikuaidedianshangshichang，ziranyechenglebingjiabizhengzhidi。buzhilazada，rujinyijingzaioumeishichangzhanwenjiaogendesheinyeyikaishijinrudongnanya，zaixinjiapodengguojiakaishedulizhan；tiktok shopyejiadaduidongnanyashichangdetouru；erouzhou、lameizhandiankuozhangshilihou，shopeeyoujiangmuguangshouhuizhidongnanya，jinyibuxiachen。

尾声：低谷，也正是转身的时候

rangyuxuehuizongjie2022，taxiangleyihuiershuo：digu，yezhengshizhuanshendeshihou。2023nian，taxiwangnengba“cixiyoupinguan”zairiben、aodaliyadefenguankaiqilai。duicixidewaimaoqiyelaishuo，duguohandong，xuyaogenghaodechanpin、gengxindequdao、gengdadeshichang。

haozai，zhanzai2022niandi，yuxuehuijiuyijingkandaoleshuguang。tasuibianshushu，2023niankeyicanjiadejiadianleiguojizhanhuijiuyoujin10ge。1yue5ri-8ri，cesmeiguoguojixiaofeidianzizhanjijiangkaiqi，cixishangjiamenyiyueyueyushi。

linjinnianguan，zhangdanlixinyiniandeshengyiyizaiguihuazhong，2023nian5yuedeguangjiaohuiyijingfalaiyaoqing，tatiqian“yue”daolelianggezhanwei。zhangdanlihaijihuazhezouchuqucanzhan、tankehu。“yuanlaiyinianliangtangdaihaizichuguo，jieguoyiqingsannianyicimeiqu，chulecanzhan，woyezhunbeihejiarenlvxingle。”

“quxianchangcanzhan，neigangzuoqilaidezhibohaihuijixume？”

“jixuzuo。womendebileidiyishizuochanpinzheimeduonian，youchengbenkongzhiyujiageyoushi，dierjiushiduihaiwaishichangxuqiubianhuadelejiehegenjin。chulezhanhui，xianshangzhibodegongyuzhuansiyuyeshiyigehuoqubianhua、yongbaobianhuadezhongyaotujing。”jinguanguoquyiniancengshucizaoyukucunjiya，danzhangdanliyijiuchongmanxinxin，“wojuedechengjiaoeyinggaihaiyouhendadeshangshengkongjian。”