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美国经济拉响最强“衰退警报”:美债收益率曲线倒挂程度创40年之最

shichangyanjiugongsidatatrekzhouyizaiyifenbaogaozhongcheng,muqian2nianqihe10nianqimeizhaishouyilvzhichaweiyue40nianlaizuida,duijingjishuaituifachulezuiqiangliedejingbao, yekenengshimeiguogushijiangzaoyugengduotongkudejixiang。

文丨财联社

shichangyanjiugongsidatatrekzhouyizaiyifenbaogaozhongcheng,muqian2nianqihe10nianqimeizhaishouyilvzhichaweiyue40nianlaizuida,duijingjishuaituifachulezuiqiangliedejingbao, yekenengshimeiguogushijiangzaoyugengduotongkudejixiang。

juxi,2nianqimeiguoguozhaishouyilvchaoguo10nianqimeiguoguozhaishouyilvyijingkuaiyinianle,erqiezheizhongfanzhuanzuijincaijinyibujiashen。zhouyi,liangnianqimeiguoguozhaishouyilvwei4.241%,er10nianqimeiguoguozhaishouyilvwei3.578%。

zheishizi20shiji80niandaichuyilaizuiyanzhongdedaogua,yeshijingjideqianzaibuxiangyuzhao,yinweishouyilvquxiandaoguayizhishiyushijingjishuaituidekekaozhibiao,biaomingshichangzhengzaiduipiruandezengzhangqianjingjinxingdingjia。

zimeilianchuqunianjijishoujinzhengceyiezhitongzhangyilai,renmenduishuaituidedanyouyousuojiaju,meilianchuzai2022nianjianglilvtigaole425gejidian。wujiayicongqunianxiatiandegaodianlveyouhuiluo,danpinglunrenshidanxin,chaoguomuqianshuipingdejiaxikenenghuidaozhijingjiguodujinsuo,xianrushuaitui。

muqianshichangyuji,meilianchujiangbalilvshangdiaozhi5.1%,jiaomuqianshuipingzaishangdiao75gejidian。danmeiguotouzijigoufundstratshangyuebiaoshi,zi11yuechuyilai,duimeilianchuzhengcezuiweimingande2nianqigongzhaishouyilvyizhizaixiahua,zheikenengyiweizhezhaishirenweimeilianchuchengnuojinyibujiaxishizaixuzhangshengshi。

“zhaiquanshichangzhengzaixiaohuameilianchudezhengce,zheiyizhengcebi2022niandidexianzhixinglveqiang,xuduotouzizhejiangrenweizheizengjiale2023nianjingjishuaituidekenengxing。lishizhengmingletamendedanyou,”datatreklianhechuangshirenninicholas colasxiedao。

tazhichu,zai1990nian、2001nianhe2008nianjingjishuaituizhiqian,shouyilvquxianjunchuxianledaogua。buguo,zheizhongdaoguabingbuyiweizhejingjishuaituibukebimian,danjingjishibigengrongyishoudaowaishengchongjideyingxiang,gushiyeyinggaiweigengduodetongkuzuohaozhunbei。

“dang2nianqiguozhaishouyilvyuangaoyu10nianqiguozhaishouyilvshi,hennanbianchenggushiqiangjing,yuanyinhenjiandan,womenzhidaozheizhongchayibiaomingmeiguojingjiguyoudecuiruoxing。”tabuchongshuo。

 

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美国经济拉响最强“衰退警报”:美债收益率曲线倒挂程度创40年之最

shichangyanjiugongsidatatrekzhouyizaiyifenbaogaozhongcheng,muqian2nianqihe10nianqimeizhaishouyilvzhichaweiyue40nianlaizuida,duijingjishuaituifachulezuiqiangliedejingbao, yekenengshimeiguogushijiangzaoyugengduotongkudejixiang。

文丨财联社

shichangyanjiugongsidatatrekzhouyizaiyifenbaogaozhongcheng,muqian2nianqihe10nianqimeizhaishouyilvzhichaweiyue40nianlaizuida,duijingjishuaituifachulezuiqiangliedejingbao, yekenengshimeiguogushijiangzaoyugengduotongkudejixiang。

juxi,2nianqimeiguoguozhaishouyilvchaoguo10nianqimeiguoguozhaishouyilvyijingkuaiyinianle,erqiezheizhongfanzhuanzuijincaijinyibujiashen。zhouyi,liangnianqimeiguoguozhaishouyilvwei4.241%,er10nianqimeiguoguozhaishouyilvwei3.578%。

zheishizi20shiji80niandaichuyilaizuiyanzhongdedaogua,yeshijingjideqianzaibuxiangyuzhao,yinweishouyilvquxiandaoguayizhishiyushijingjishuaituidekekaozhibiao,biaomingshichangzhengzaiduipiruandezengzhangqianjingjinxingdingjia。

zimeilianchuqunianjijishoujinzhengceyiezhitongzhangyilai,renmenduishuaituidedanyouyousuojiaju,meilianchuzai2022nianjianglilvtigaole425gejidian。wujiayicongqunianxiatiandegaodianlveyouhuiluo,danpinglunrenshidanxin,chaoguomuqianshuipingdejiaxikenenghuidaozhijingjiguodujinsuo,xianrushuaitui。

muqianshichangyuji,meilianchujiangbalilvshangdiaozhi5.1%,jiaomuqianshuipingzaishangdiao75gejidian。danmeiguotouzijigoufundstratshangyuebiaoshi,zi11yuechuyilai,duimeilianchuzhengcezuiweimingande2nianqigongzhaishouyilvyizhizaixiahua,zheikenengyiweizhezhaishirenweimeilianchuchengnuojinyibujiaxishizaixuzhangshengshi。

“zhaiquanshichangzhengzaixiaohuameilianchudezhengce,zheiyizhengcebi2022niandidexianzhixinglveqiang,xuduotouzizhejiangrenweizheizengjiale2023nianjingjishuaituidekenengxing。lishizhengmingletamendedanyou,”datatreklianhechuangshirenninicholas colasxiedao。

tazhichu,zai1990nian、2001nianhe2008nianjingjishuaituizhiqian,shouyilvquxianjunchuxianledaogua。buguo,zheizhongdaoguabingbuyiweizhejingjishuaituibukebimian,danjingjishibigengrongyishoudaowaishengchongjideyingxiang,gushiyeyinggaiweigengduodetongkuzuohaozhunbei。

“dang2nianqiguozhaishouyilvyuangaoyu10nianqiguozhaishouyilvshi,hennanbianchenggushiqiangjing,yuanyinhenjiandan,womenzhidaozheizhongchayibiaomingmeiguojingjiguyoudecuiruoxing。”tabuchongshuo。

 

本文为转载内容,授权事宜请联系原著作权人。