wen | wangjin zhaorongmei

能源安全的概念已从单一的石油扩展到天然气和煤炭，又扩展到电力、核电、新能源，再扩展到锂、钴等新能源关键矿产资源，再到能源体系与整体系统，加之近年来的绿色低碳推进，其内涵与外延不断丰富和拓宽（见《能源安全大战①：全球危机蔓延，安全压力巨大》），quanqiugeguobuyiertongdijiangwendingnengyuanjichulieruguojiazhanlveanquanzhishou。

mianduicuozongfuzadeguojixingshi、quanqiufazhandebujunheng、“shuangtan”mubiaoxiadenengyuanzhuanxing、yijijinnianlainengyuanxingyedejijubodong，zaijinhouxiangdangzhangdeshiqinei，zhongguomianlindejudatiaozhanshi，nengyuandefanwannengfoulaolaoduanzaizijishouzhong，fanwanzhongshibushiyouzugoude“mi”，“mi”dejiagehuibuhuitaigui？

2021nian，quanguofanweineimeitangongyingduanque，jiagebaozhang，youjiaqijiashunshipansheng，duogeshengfenchuxianxiandian，beifangdiqugongnuanjiqijinzhang。2022nian，huodianqiyeyiranquanmiankuisun，meiyouqijiayiranchuyugaowei，gedi“youxugongdian”ciqibifu，chuanyudiquqihouyichangdaozhidianlijinzhangchixujinsangeyue，jizhizaoyechanyelian、jingjiyuminshengdailaiduofangmiandefumianyingxiang。2023nian，quanqiumeiyouqijiageyiranchuyugaowei，suiyouxiajiang，danshougezhongyinsuyingxiang，bodongpinlvhefudugengnanyizhuomo。

谁该对中国能源安全的饭碗负责？或者说，稳定能源基础，谁来兜底责任？

国家能源安全：三种思维模式

dangjinshijie，nengyuanzaoyiquanqiuhua。yigeguojiadenengyuananquanbujinjinxianzhizaiyiguozhinei，jisuoweide“nengyuanziji”，gengyinggaifangzaiguojishichangzhongqukaoliang，yejiushishuo，yigeguojiadenengyuananquanxuyaoqitaguojiazhichi，xuyaoguojishichangzhicheng。

youyunengyuanziyuanbingfudechayi，geguozaiquanqiufazhanzhongdediweijuedinglenengyuananquandesiweiheduiceyousuobutong，womenjiangshijiehuafenwei“sangeshijie”：yishimeiguo、ershizhongguo、sanshiqitaguojia。

美国、中国都是群主，各带几个群，有各自的死党圈、兄弟圈、朋友圈、合作圈、竞争圈、敌对圈等。其他各国都不得不选群，选择跟随；他们可以选多个群，可以进，也可以退。

（一）三套思维

zuoweiqunzhu，jueduilingdaozhe，zaizhongdawentishang，tebieshimeiguozhongdaliyishang，meiguojianchi“baquanzhuyi”siwei，sidangquangeguojihuwutiaojianfucong，fouze，meiguohuishiyonggezhongshouduanyuyizhicaihuochengfa。

duijingzhengquanguojia，meiguodezhichiyubangzhudaduoshiyoutiaojiande，xuyaoyiziyuan、jingji、junshi、zhengzhidengliyizuoweijiaohuan。

duiweixiemeiguoliyiyuanquan（baokuonengyuananquan）dejigoushenzhiguojia，meiguohuicaiqujingji、qingbao、waijiao、fenhua、wulidenggezhongshouduan，zhizaozhangai、hunluanhuodongdang，quebaomeiguozhangqiliyiheanquan。

xiangbijiao，zhongguofengxing“renleimingyungongtongti”dedatongsiwei，yiyouhao、hepingyugongyingdelinianyugeguokaizhanhezuo，tebiedeshi，yuqianfadaguojiahezuojizhichijihumeiyourenhezhengzhi、jingjidengfujiatiaojian。

qitageguojihudoushigensuizhe。eluosibenshi“yiba”，danyouyujingjitiliangtaixiao，quanqiuyingxianglidajian。zheiciewuchongtu，ewushuangfangxiaohaoziyuanheguolitaida，duanqineieluosinanzhenxiongfeng。

geguoxuanzegensui，suiranyejiangyuanyuan、zhidu、wenhuaheliniandeng，danqijuedingzuoyongderengranshiliyi，suowei“younaibianshiniang”。gensuimeiguoliyida，dagailvxuanzegenmeiguo；gensuizhongguoliyida，dagailvhuidiaotouxuanzhongguo；yeyouguojiazuoyoufengyuan，jiaocailiangzhichuan。shijiehenxianshi，yehenwuqing。

（二）三种对策

zainengyuananquanshang，meiguoyouxianbaozhengbenguogongyingchongfen，erqieyaokongzhiguoneijiagezhangfu，fouze，nengyuanjiagebaozhangyinqidejiagepuzhangjishehuixingdetonghuopengzhang，huirangxuanminbuman，dagailvdaozhixuanpiaoliushi。

jinqiewuchongtu，oumenggeguosuiyoubutongyijianshenzhibushaoyuanyan，danrengxuanzefucongmeiguo，binggaoduyizhiditongguojueyi，quanmianzhicaieluosi，baokuoxianzhieluosiyouqichukou。weici，oumengbaoshounengyuanweijikunrao。

zuowei“laoda”，meiguoqueshidongyuanbenguojiquanqiuziyuan，shenzhishiyazhongdongguojiazengjiayouqichanliang，xiangouzhoujinjiyunsongyipipiyouqi。

为了进一步削弱俄罗斯及中国兄弟圈实力，美国大可能选择牺牲乌克兰，“弃卒保车”，让俄乌冲突长期化，拖穷拖垮俄罗斯（见《石油大战⑧：新局已成？》）。

duididuiquanguojia，meiguohuijiejishibushishiyongtebiexingdong，pohuaizheixieguojiazhengchangshengtai，rangdiduiquangeguowuxiatiaoxinmeiguodequanqiubaquan。

baquanzhuyiyehuichengdanxiangyingdehouguo，liru，baoshoushirentongqinghewanxidemeiguo911shijian，benzhishangshimeiguobaquanzhuyizhangqishiyaxiade“goujitiaoqiang”，zhijiedaozhimeiguo“banshitouzazijidejiao”。

zaihezuogongyingyuanzexia，zhongguoyushijiegeguokaizhanquanfangweidehezuo，dedaoduoshuguojiadehuanyingherenke。danzai“waishiwuxiaoshi”daoxiangxia，zhongguoceng“lejinkuyaodai”zhichixiongdiguojia；wanlinengyuanxibo，yeyaoboyibufenjixiongdiguojia；wutiaojianwujiaohuanmianchuyixieqianfadaguojiazhaiwudeng。

gensuiguo，yifangmianxieyumeiguodebaquan，danxinweijizhengquanwending；lingyifangmianyouxiwangyuzhongguohezuo，huligongying，liyizongshizuiweizhongyaodekaoliangzhiyi，youdepianxiangyanqianliyi，youdepianxiangzhangqiliyi。

zuoweigensuiguojia，ouzhougeguozhineng“guixielongen”。ewuchongtuhou，meiguoweiqisidangouzhoudenengyuananquanyeshijinxinjinli。suiranjiagepiangao，meiguoyouqishangdahuoqiyi，danzongsuanbaozhengleouzhoudejibengongying。

yixieguojia，zhengzhidixiao、waihuikujie、zhaiwugaoqi、weijizhongzhong，ruguomeiyoudaguozhichi，tebieshimeiguohuozhongguo，nengyuanweijihuochengweiqizhengquandaotadedaohuoxian。

美国能源安全：“二驾马车”的运行逻辑

weishenmemeiguotebiekanzhongnengyuananquan？

cengjing，meiguoyidushinengyuanxiaohaojijinkouzuidadeguojia。nengyuanshichangdebodong，qianyifaerdongquanshen，zhijieduijingjifazhanherenminshenghuochanshengyanzhongyingxiang。renhezongtongshangtaihou，doubudebugaoduzhongshinengyuan。meiguoxuanminrenwei，ruguoyigezongtongliannengyuananquandouguanbuhao，hainengxiangxintaweiguojiaherenminzaofuma？

meiguolianbangzhengfujigouzhong，naxiejigouzaizhuanengyuananquan？

（一）美国能源部（Department of Energy）

lianbangzhengfushelinengyuanbudeluojishishenme？

shangshiji70niandaizhiqian，nengyuanxiangduichongzubingqiejiagedilian，nengyuanqiyechongfenjingzhenggoujianlewenjiandenengyuanchanyeliantixi，lianbangzhengfujihuwusuozuowei，yewuxuzuowei。

1973niandiyicishiyouweijibaofa，quanqiuyoujiabaozhang，nengyuanshichangyushiyouanquanshoudaotiaozhan。yifangmian，diyicishiyouweijijiakuailianbangzhengfuzaiguojiacengmianzhongzunengyuanxiangguandezhengfujigou，baokuolifa、zhengceyujianguandengjigou，yibianyulianbangzhengfuquanmianguanli，baozhengnengyuanshichangshilingshiguojianengyuananquan；lingyifangmian，henengshangyehuafazhanhenkuai，hedailaideguoneiwaifengxianjijushangsheng，xuyaoduiheanquanhejianguanjinxingshengji。

1977nian10yue，genjulianbangnengyuanbuzuzhifaan（the department of energy organization act）shelilemeiguonengyuanbu。nengyuanbuchengjielesuoyouguojiahenengjigouyijicongmanhadungongchengqidonghoudehexiangguandeguofangzeren，tongshijianglianbang12gebushujigouzhongnengyuanxiangguandebumenhebingjinlai。

meiguonengyuanbudezhuyaozhizejiushi，yikejiweizhuashouquebaonengyuananquanyunengyuanfazhan。suizhezhizhengdangyuzongtonggengti，zuoweineigechengyuandenengyuanbuzhangyibansuizhidiaozheng，nengyuanbudegongzuozhongdianyezaidiaozhengzhizhong。

shanggeshiji70niandai，nengyuanbugongzuozhongdianshinengyuanchanyefazhanjijianguan；80niandai，pianzhonghewuqiyanfaheshengchan；suizhelengzhanjieshu，90niandai，zhuanxianghewuqixiaohuizhongdehuanjingwenti、hewuqiguanliyijibukuosantuidong；jinrubenshiji，nengyuanbucezhongyutuidongnengyuan、huanjingjihenengdekejijinbu，baozhangguojiaanquanhefanrong，bingxunqiuguojianengyuanxitongdezhuanxing，baochiqingjienengyuanjishuheanquandengfangmianquanqiulingxian。

nengyuanbuxiashuruoganbumen，qizhongsangezhuanyebumenweijichusheshibangongshi、kexueyuchuangxinbangongshi、heanquanyuguojiaheanquanguanlibangongshi。qizhong，kexueyuchuangxinbangongshixiashuyou17geshijiezhumingdeguojiashiyanshi，jinqihejubianqudezhongdatupodejiushiqizhongzhiyi。

zhumingdemeiguonengyuanxinxiguanliju（us energy information administration(eia)）yijiguojiazhanlveshiyouchubeibangongshi（strategic petroleum reserve(spr)）doushinengyuanbudexiashujigou。

2023nian，nengyuanbudezongyusuanwei482yimeiyuan，bi2021niandutigao15.1%。qizhong，jichusheshi21yi，kexuechuangxin147yi，heanquanyuguanli214yi；huanjingguanli76yi；qitabumen24yi。

zongjieeryan，meiguonengyuanbujibaozhangjinqideguojianengyuananquanjiguojiaanquan，baokuotuijinhebukuosan、hewuqianquan、zhanlveshiyouchubei、baohunengyuanjichusheshimianshougongjideng，youtongguokejichuangxinyingyongquebaonengyuankejiquanqiulingxian，weiweilainengyuananquandahaojichu。

（二）联邦能源监管委员会（The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission(FERC)）

ferclishuyunengyuanbu，dantashiyigedulidejianguanjigou，jianguangezhouzhijiandianli、tianranqiheshiyoudeshusong，pinggubingquedingyouqiguandaodechengben、shusongshoufeibiaozhunyufeilv，weikuazhoutianranqiguanwang、tianranqichubeixiangmu、lngjieshouzhandengtigongshencha，weishuidiandengxiangmubanfaxukezhengdeng。

tongguoheshidejianguanyushichangshouduan，ferczhiliyuxiezhusuoyoudenengyuanyonghuzaihelidejiagexia，huodekekaode、anquande、wendingde、jijingjiyouxiaodenengyuanfuwu，weici，fercmiqieguanzhubingyangezhizhicaozongshichangxingwei，quebaonengyuanshichangdeyouxiaoxing、wendingxinghechixuxing。

中国能源安全：碎片管理的责任兜底

zhongguonengyuanxingyeshicongjihuajingjitizhixiazhengqiheyiyanbianerlai。jingguozhengqifenkai、zhengfujigouyuzhinengduocidiaozheng、guoyounengyuanqiyedefenfenhehe、minyingzibendejinshenjinru，rujinxingchenglezhongguoteyoudenengyuantizhiyunengyuanshichang。qijibentezhengruxia：

（yi）yixielingyuyirancunzaizhengqibufen，qiyeganlezhengfudeshi；

（er）zhengjianbufen，xiguanyuzijizhidingzhengcezijijianguan；

（san）zhengchuduomen，shangdaozhongyangxiadaodifang，geguanyikuai；

（si）xiguanyuzhongshenpiqingjianguan，zishenghenduofubaijihui；

（wu）yixiejianguanzhengcepianxiangxingyelongduanzhehejideliyizhe；

（liu）jianguanjigouzhinengfensan，cunzaizhongfujiaochayucuoweiquewei；

（qi）yixielingyuxingchengjianguanzhenkong，xiaofeizhequanyibaohubugou；

（ba）xingyejizhongdugao，yuanmeiyouxingchenglianghaodeshichangjizhi；

（jiu）nengyuanxingyefalvfaguiyanzhongzhihou，feigailibujishi；

（shi）zhongdaweijiyufangjizhibuzu，yingjicuoshiyushouduanluohou。

jiuguojianengyuananquanwenti，duoyuanhua、suipianhua、“jiulongzhishui”shideguanlimoshixia，zequanliweinengyouxiaoduiying，meiyouyigejigoukeyidanduchengdanzeren。

请问：

nengyuanzongtigongyingjinzhang，baokuomeitan、shiyou、tianranqi、dianlideng，nagebumenyinggaichengdanzeren？

nengyuanquyuxinggongyingjinzhang，baokuomeitan、shiyou、tianranqi、dianlideng，nagebumenyinggaichengdanzeren？

nengyuanjiegouxinggongyingshiheng，nagebumenyinggaichengdanzeren？

nengyuanjiagechixushangzhangshenzhibaozhang，nagebumenyinggaichengdanzeren？

nengyuanjichusheshiyanzhongshousunjiexingshigudengdaozhirenyuanyujingjizhongdasunshi，nagebumenyinggaichengdanzeren？

guojiaweilaidenengyuangongyingwending，baokuomeitan、shiyou、tianranqi、dianli、xinnengyuandeng，nagebumenyinggaichengdanzeren？

weilaishuangtanmubiaohenengyuanzhuanxingweiwancheng，nagebumenyinggaichengdanzeren？

应对能源安全：综合管理部门之必要

zaiyingduiguojianengyuananquanyijixiangguandegexiangzhongdashiwushang，zhenghebingzujianzonghenengyuanguanlibumenjixiangyingdeguojianengyuanjianguanweiyuanhuijiqibiyao。

（一）政府能源行业管理模式

zhengfuduixingyeguanlixuyaojiejuezhengcezhidinghexingyejianguanzhijiandeguanxijizhengjianguanxi、jizhongjianguanhefensanjianguandeguanxi、zhongyanghedifangdeguanxijizhengfuheshichangdeguanxideng。

zhengjianguanxicaiquzhengjianheyihaishizhengjianfenkaimoshi？zaizhengcezhidinghexingyejianguanshang，xiaoguopianxiangzhengjianheyi，daguopianxiangzhengjianfenkai；xiaoxingyepianxiangzhengjianheyi，daxingyepianxiangzhengjianfenkai。

jianguanmoshishangcaiqujizhongjianguanhaishifensanjianguan？conghengxiangshangfen，youtongyijianguanhefenduanjianguanliangzhongzhuyaomoshi；congzongxiangshangyoujizhongjianguanhefenjijianguanliangzhongmoshi。tongyijianguanhejizhongjianguanshibijiaolixiangdemoshi。

zhongguoshiyigedaguo，nengyuanshiyigejichuxingdetedaxingye，zaiguojiazhilishang，yinggaijinkuaizouxiang“zhengjianfenkai，jizhongjianguan”moshi，baozhengzhengcezhidinghezhengcezhixingzhijiandexianghuzhiyue，zengjiazhengcezhidingdetoumingdu，tigaozhengcezhixinghexingyejianguandexiaolv。

weici，xuyaozhenghebingzujianyigezonghenengyuanguanlibumenzhidingtongyizhengce，yexuyaoyigenengyuanjianguanweiyuanhuiquzhixingzhengcebingduishichangjinxingtongyi、jizhongjianguan，quebao“sangong”（jigongkai、gongping、gongzheng）tongyishichangdetuijinheluoshi。

（二）国家能源安全主体责任

zaiguojianengyuananquanzheiyihexinyitishang，yousandazhongrenyuzeren：

yishiyaojiejuejinqidenengyuangongyinganquan，baokuozongliang、quyu、jiegou、sheshiyuxitongdeng；

ershiyaoweiweilaidenengyuangongyinganquanzuohaozhunbei，quebaoguojiaanquandeweilainengyuanbaozhang；

sanshiweihuhaonengyuanshichang，rangshichangjizhizhenzhengfahuizuoyong。zaishichangshiling，rujiagechixushangzhangshenzhibaozhangdengqingkuangxia，zhengfunenggoujishibingyouxiaoganyu。

guojiaxuyaozonghenengyuanguanlibumenzheiyidajigouzuozhuashou，bingchengdanyishangsandazhongrenyuzeren。zonghenengyuanguanlibumenkechengdandiyi、erxiangzeren，nengyuanjianguanweiyuanhuikechengdandisanxiangzeren。

（三）群主国际示范责任担当

dangqian，zhongguobixuyaolvxianjiejuehaozishendewenti，zhongguodenengyuangenganquan、moshigenggaoxiao、guanligengguifan、jishugengxianjin，caiduixiongdiquanheyouhaoquanguojiaxingchengshifanxiaoying，duizheixieguojiacaigengyouxiangxinli；yuhezuoquanguojiadehezuocaigengyouxiyinli。

zhongguonengyuanjichuzhashi，jingjifusuqiangjing，cainengjixiongdiquan、youhaoquanhehezuoquandegeguoyigengdadexinxin、gengduodegongyingshangji，yegengyounenglizaixiongdiquanheyouhaoquanguojiachuxiannengyuanweijishichushouxiangzhu。

zhongguohepingfazhanyehuirangmeiguozhubufangqijiexin，jianglaihuoyoujihuibianchengmeiguodejingzhengquanduishouhuohuoban，keyigongmouquanqiukechixufazhan。

nengyuananquan、moshigaoxiao、guanliguifan、jishuxianjin、shichangwenjian，douxuyaoyouzerenzhutijizonghenengyuanguanlibumenjijianguanweiyuanhuideyouxiaoyunxinghezhicheng。

（四）应对未来能源低碳转型

未来，全球绿色发展与能源转型加快，电能替代与可再生能源比例高速增长，能源体系面临气候突变、电网效率、系统冲击等更严峻的新挑战，如何在新形势下保障国家能源安全，更需要深化能源体制机制的改革（参见《电力大战10：xinnengfazhanpingjing，ruheyouxiaotupo？》）

整合现有能源分散化“jiulongzhishui”moshi，zujianzonghenengyuanguanlibumenjishixinyilunnengyuantizhigaigedebiran，yeshiweilaishenhuanengyuantizhigaigejinengyuanzhuanxingdezhudaojigouhezerenjigou。ruguonengyuangaigebuchenggong，nengyuananquanmeidabiao，nengyuanzhuanxingweiwancheng，zonghenengyuanguanlijiudechengdandoudizeren；nengyuanshichangbuzuowei，nengyuanjianguanweiyuanhuijiudechengdandoudizeren。

sishiduonianlai，jingguoduobumenhebingzhongzu、liangdangduocilunliuzhizheng、lijing16rennengyuanbuzhang，neibuguanlichixudiaozhengyouhua，zaiguojianengyuananquandesanxiangzerenshang，daguoguanlimoshizhong，meiguoxianyou“erjiamache”moshibijiaoyouxiao，dedaopubiangongren。

tongyangshidaguo，zhongguocankaomeiguodejingyanjiaoxun，xiquqijinghua，jiehezhongguoguoqing，zhenghebingzujianzonghenengyuanguanlibumenjinengyuanjianguanweiyuanhui，tuijin“zhengcejianguanxiangduiduli，jizhongjianguanjiangufensan，fengongmingque、quanzeqingxi”deguanlitizhi，shijiyijingchengshu，gaigeqiafengqishi。

zhenghehoudezonghenengyuanguanlibumenkeyishixianyoudeguojiafazhangaigewei，yekeyishixindedanengyuanbu，ruci，zhongguonengyuananquandefanwanjiuyoulezerendoudi，shenhuagaigejiuyouletuidongliliang，yingduiguojinengyuanboyijiuyouleqiantouzhuti。

（本文经作者授权发布，仅代表作者观点。本文得到能源行业一些资深专家和领导的指导和建议，作者表示感谢。本文作者来自于国合洲际能源咨询院，该机构专注于石油、天然气、煤炭、电力、可再生能源及气候变化等相关领域的深度研究、评估和咨询。）