文丨财联社
jinyigeyueyilai,aigcxianxiangjichanpinchatgptliaotianjiqirendianran、chengjiuleyichangzibenkuanghuan。
可以说,ChatGPT的火爆,开辟了AI产业化的新路径——以大模型敲开通用人工智能的大门。为了满足大模型应用的巨大算力需求,大厂们纷纷加大了相关基础设施方面的投资。作为算力基础设施中的核心硬件,AI芯片由此进入人们的视野。
浙商证券最新报告表示,ChatGPT的“背后英雄”系GPU或CPU+FPGA等算力支撑,该应用对于高端芯片的需求增加会拉动芯片均价,量价齐升将导致芯片需求暴涨。信达证券也表示,AIGC推动AI产业化由软件向硬件切换,半导体+AI生态逐渐清晰,aixinpianchanpinjiangshixiandaguimoluodi。
1月下旬以来,景嘉微、寒武纪、龙芯中科等多只个股涨幅已超30%。jinri(2yue9ri)zaopan,duozhiaixinpianguzouqiang,jiezhiwujianshoupan,jingjiaweizhangchao16%,haiguangxinxizhangchao14%,zhongkeshuguang、hanwuji、longxinzhongke、anlukejidengfenfengenzhang。
该AI芯片接棒了?
▌AI迈向大模型时代 芯片市场成长可期
chatgptdejishudizuoshi“daxingyuyanmoxing(large language models)”,jianchengllms,zhongwenxiguanchengwei“damoxing”。suanfashidamoxingchenggongdeshouyaotiaojian,ranhouyaoweijisuanfahailiangdeshuju(shujuliangjiyuesheng,nengdailaigengduonenglideyongxian),zaidapeiqiangdadefadongji——dasuanli,cainenghuodezuijichudedamoxing。
一个ChatGPT应用的算力消耗已经让人瞠目。qidamoxinggptjinglilesancidiedai,gpt、gpt-2hegpt-3(dangqiankaifangdebanbenweigpt-3.5)decanshuliangcong1.17yizengjiadao1750yi,yuxunlianshujuliangcong5gbzengjiadao45tb,qizhonggpt-3xunliandancidechengbenjiuyijinggaoda460wanmeiyuan。zuixindegpt3.5zaixunlianzhongshiyongleweiruanzhuanmenjianshedeaijisuanxitong,you1wangev100 gpuzuchengdegaoxingnengwangluojiqun,zongsuanlixiaohaoyue3640pf-days,jijiarumeimiaojisuanyiqianwanyici,xuyaojisuan3640tian。
tongyang,guochanziyandeyuan1.0、wudaohewenxindengaimoxing,bujinzaicanshuliangshangdadaoleqianyijibie,erqieshujujiguimoyegaodatbjibie。xiangyaogaodingzheixie“pangrandawu”dexunlian,jiuzhishaoxuyaotouruchaoguo1000petaflop/s-day(pd)dejisuanziyuan。
一言以蔽之,大模型为代表的AI新时代,算力便是核心竞争力。
而AI 芯片是针对人工智能算法做了特殊加速设计的芯片,也被称为AI加速器或计算卡,是AI的算力基础。yaozhidao,chatgptyouzhedaliangfuzajisuanxuqiudeaimoxing,gpu、fpga、asicdengaixinpianzhuanmenyongyuchulizheixiejisuanrenwu,shibukehuoquededicengyingjian。
julejie,caigouyipianyingweidadingjigpuchengbenwei8wanyuan,gpufuwuqichengbentongchangchaoguo40wanyuan。duiyuchatgpteryan,zhichengqisuanlijichusheshizhishaoxuyaoshangwankeyingweidagpu a100,yicimoxingxunlianchengbenchaoguo1200wanmeiyuan。
zheshangzhengquanfenxishichenhangjucibiaoshi,chatgptduiyugaoduanxinpiandexuqiuzengjiahuiladongxinpianjunjia,liangjiaqishengjiangdaozhixinpianxuqiubaozhang,“muqianopenaiyituichu20meiyuan/yuedingyuemoshi,chubugoujianleyouzhidedingyueshangyemoxing,weilaijixukuorongdenenglijianghuidafutisheng。”
中金公司认为,未来大模型趋势下,AI芯片市场成长可期,zaichatgptyingyongdaguimoshangyongchuqi,aixinpianxingyeyouwangchuangzao20yimeiyuanzuoyoushichangkongjian。lingjuomdia,2022nianshujuzhongxinyongaixinpianshichangguimoyouwangda133yimeiyuan。
▌多路线蕴含潜力 周边生态有望受益
不过,在名为“AI芯片”的大篮子里,细分品类众多。目前英伟达主导的GPU凭借高算力成为主流选择,其他AI芯片如ASIC、DPU、FPGA也蕴含潜力——
asic/dpudengzhuanyongxinpianzaitedingshiyongchangjingxiagaosuanli/digonghao/xiaomianjideyoushirengxiyinguoneiwaichangshangjijibuju,rutpu、leinaoxinpiandeng;fpgayouyukebianchengergengjulinghuoxing,xiangbiyucpu/gpu/asicjuyougenggaodesuduhejididejisuannenghao,changnianlaibeiyongzuozhuanyongxinpiandexiaopiliangtidaipin。
ai xinpiangenjujishujiagoufenlei
图源:信达证券研报
duoyangdejishuluxianyeyiweizhe,aixinpiandejutitouzijihuibingbushineimehaobawo,yingweidazheiyangdejutouyemianlinbeichaochedefengxian。
xindazhengquanbianbiaoshi,aigcdechuxianzhenzhengfuyulerengongzhinengdaguimoluodidechangjing,aixinpianyejiangcongguoqumianxiangchangshangdexunlianchangjingweizhuzhuanbianweimianxiangxiaofeizhedetuilichangjingweizhu,gpudegaobingxingjisuannenglihegaotongyongxingdexiediaotongyizaixiaofeizheshidaidetongzhilihuoxunanyiweiji,asicxinpian、guochangpuxinpianyouwangqierumaaschanyeshengtai。
该机构进一步认为,AIGC推动AI产业化由软件向硬件切换,半导体+AI生态逐渐清晰,AI芯片产品将实现大规模落地。yingjianduanhexinbaokuoaixinpian/gpu/cpu/fpga/ai socdeng,erzaiaixinpianzhong,suanlijixinxichuanshusulvchengweiguanjianjishu,xinpianxingnengjichengbendepinghengyedaidongzhoubianshengtai,baokuochiplet/xianjinfengzhuang/ipdengchanyelianshouyi。
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