yinxingguanjun，shizhineixiebuweigongzhongsuoshuzhi，quezaimougexifenlingyuzhanjuhengaoshichangfene，yongyouhexinjingzhengli，nanyibeichaoyuehemofangdexiaoermeiqiye。

suiranzheigegainianbeideguoxuezheheerman·ximenglvxian“faxian”，qichutayerenwei“yinxingguanjun”xianxiangjinxianyudeguo，danxunzhetadebiaozhunquzhaoxun，jiuhuifaxianzheiyangdeqiyebianbuquanqiugedi，youqishirujinzaizhongguoyuelaiyueduo。

shenchujingxihuagongsaidaodejianbanggufen（603285），jiushizheiyangyijiagongshenchanyelianshangyou，jiangsaikechanpinzuodaoquanqiushichangfene60%，zhongguoshichang80%dezhizaoyedanxiangguanjunqiye，quebuweidazhongsuozhi。

tongshi，gongsidetaisuanzhichanpinguoneishizhanlvzaisichengyishang，deyizhuazhuxinnengyuanlidianzhengjicailiaoshichangzengliang，kaifafulinjinggongdengguoneizhimingdexinnengyuanlidianxingyekehu。

ciwai，gongsihaijijibujuxingjiandbm/sbm（erbenjiaxianjiawan/yingzhixianbenjiaxianjiawan）7000dunchanxian，tuidongxifensaidaogejubianpan，yeweizishenfazhanxunqiu“dierzengzhangquxian”。

8yue3ri，jianbanggufenfabubannianbao，qineishixianyingshou3.63yiyuan，tongbizengzhang5.70%；guishuyushangshigongsigudongdejinglirun0.96yiyuanyuan，tongbixiajiang2.18%，jibenmeigushouyi0.80yuan。

gongsitongrigonggao，juedingtouzijianshe《10000t/agaochunyixianbingtongxiangmu》；bingnishishitebiefenhong，niyishishiquanyifenpeiguquandengjiridengjidezonggubenweijishu，xiangquantigudongmei10gupaifaxianjinhongli10yuan（hanshui）。

最艰难的时刻已经过去

julvyixi，yechengpvc，jibeibeirenweishidangdaizuiweidadefamingzhiyi，yeshishenghuozhongdeyizhongzuichangjiansuliao。

zhongguorenjunpvcxiaofeiliangshifadaguojiadesanfenzhiyi。

saike，zhideshiyoujihuahewusan（2-qiangyiji）yiqingniaosuanzhi，zheishiyizhongchangyongzuogaofenzicailiaohuanbaozhuji。

pvcsuliaozhongtianjiasaike，nenggouzengqiangqirewendingxinghenaihouxing，zheizhongsuliaoguangfanyingyongyujianzhucailiao、guandaoxitong、chuangkuangdengpvczhipinzhong。

shujuxianshi，2021-2022 nian，gongsisaikechanpinzaizhongguoshichangdezhanyoulvfenbieyuewei89%he83%，zaiquanqiushichangzhandaoliuchengzuoyou，zheishijianbanggufenyupvcsuliaochanyehendachengdushangxiuqiyugong。

guojiatongjijushujuxianshi，2022nian，woguosuliaozhipinchanliangtongbixiajiang4.3%，tuliaoquanxingyeqiyezongchanliangtongbixiajiang8.5%，shouciyingxiang，jianbanggufensaikexiayoukehuxuqiuxiajiang，neixiaoxiaoliangjiao2021nianxiajiang7551.42dun，shou2022nianyilaidedongouzhanluanyingxiang，2023nian，gongsisaikewaixiaoxiaoliangyejiaoshangnianjianshao7528.23dun，qizhongouzhoudiquxiaoliangjianshao6052.40dun。

2024 nianshangbannian，guoneishengchanzongzhitongbizengzhang 5.0%。zaixiayouyingyonglingyufangmian，pvc dengjuhewushichangjingguo 2022 nianhe 2023 niandepiruanhoujianghuifudao gdp zengzhangshuipingshenzhigenggao，qiexuqiuzengzhangzhuyaolaiziyuyazhou。

suizhi，woguosuliaozhipinchanliangcong 2023 nian 1-2 yuedetongbixiajiang7.4%，huifuzhi 2023 nianquanniandetongbizengzhang 3.0%，2024 nian 1-5 yueyanxushangshengtaishi，shixiantongbizengzhang 1.0%。

2024 nian 3 yue，guowuyuanchangwuhuiyishenyitongguo《tuidongdaguimoshebeigengxinhexiaofeipinyijiuhuanxinxingdongfangan》，tuidongxinyilundaguimoshebeigengxinhexiaofeipinyijiuhuanxin，jijikaizhanqiche、jiadiandengxiaofeipinyijiuhuanxin，youliyujinyibucujinxiayouqibaoxianjijueyuanqi、lidiandengxingyedexuqiuzengzhang。suizheguominjingjihexiayouxingyedejinyibuqiwenhuisheng。

zongtieryan，2024nian1-6yuejian，waibuhuanjingyiranfuzaduobian，danjiaozhiqian，yiqiwenxianghao，zuijiannandeshikesihuyijingguoqu。

yinci，jianbanggufenbaogaoqineizhuyingchanpinxiaoliangwei 19923.96 dun，jiaotongqizengzhang 18.30%。

钛酸酯，搭上新能源快车的门票

chulesaike，jianbanggufendetaisuanzhichanpinzaiguoneishichangdezhanyoulvyedadao40%yishang。

zaitaisuanzhilingyu，gongsichanpinyizuoweicuihuaji、zengsuji、oulianjidengduozhonggongnengzhujiguangfanyingyongyusuliao、

tuliaohelidiancailiaodengxingye，jileileailuntasijituan、aisaikesijituandengqibaoxianjijueyuanqixingyedeguojijituan，lianchenghuake、yuanlikejidengzengsujixingyedeshangshigongsi，yijifulinjinggongdengguoneizhimingdelidianchizhengjicailiaoqiyedengkehuziyuan。

suizhejinnianlaizhongguoxinnengyuanqichekuaisujueqi，taisuanzhiyebangzhujianbanggufendashangxingyekuaiche，2020nian-2022nian，gongsitaisuanzhixiaoshoushourufenbiewei9,334.87wanyuan、1.743yiyuanhe2.212yiyuan，zhanzhuyingyewushourudebizhongfenbiewei16.36%、17.06%he30.74%，yiduzhunianshenggao。

danbenqineitaisuanzhixiaoshoushouruwei6006wanyuan，zhanzhuyingyewushourudebizhongwei17.16%，yousuohuiluo。

布局DBM/SBM，TMA行情是否会重演？

lianggeyuenei，baichuangufen（002455.sz）zhang2.5bei，zhengdangufen（300641.sz）zhangchao4bei，taidaxincai（430372）zhang10bei。

jinnian4yuechuyilaideyiboxingqing，ranghuagonglingyude“tmagainian”turanchuquan。

tma，jipianbensansuangan，zhuyaobeiyingyongyushengchanfenmotuliaozhongdejuzhishuzhi，tigonglianghaodenairexinghedianqijueyuanxing；yongyuzengqiangsuliaodejixiexingnenghenairexing；yongyuzhizaodianziyuanjiandefengzhuangcailiao，tigongyouyidejueyuanxingnengdeng。

jinnian2yue，quanqiuhuagongjutoumeiguoyinglishichuanchutmachanxian7wandunchannengjuedingyongjiuguanting，3yue，xiaoxiliuxiangshichang，lingtmashichangjiagefuyaozhishang。

congdangshidechanyegejushangkan，tmajinzhongguo、yidalihemeiguoshengchan，quanqiuzongchannengyue25wandun，qizhongchuyinglishitingchanqiande7wandun/nianchannengzhanquanqiu27%wai，yidalidebolin、zhongguodezhengdangufen、baichuangufenhetaidaxincaishangyou3dun/nian、8.5wandun/nian、4wandun/nianhe3wandun/niandechanneng。

shishishang，fengbingfeipingkongerqi，ershichixuliangbianjileidetufazhibian。

tmazaiguoqu20nianzhong，yizhichuzaiquanqiuchannengxiangzhongguochannengzhuanyideguochengzhong。shangshiji70niandai，tmayoudeguosaarbergwerkgongsishouxianyanfaliangchan，suihouyingguobp、ribensanling、meiguoyinglishidengxiangjikaishetmachanneng。zi2016niankaishi，youyushejigongchangnianling、shengchanxiaolv、xiayouzhuanyidengdengyinsu，chuyinglishiwaidedabufenhaiwaigongchangshengchanxianluxuguanting。

yinglishituichuhou，quanqiuxuqiuchuxianquekou，quanqiuchannengjihuquanbujizhongdaozhongguo，yebajijia“yinxingguanjun”tuidaojuguangdengxia。

TMA行情，未来是否会在别的品类重演？目前还不好说，但化工材料领域的国产替代，shizhongzaizhazhashishituijin，liruwomenzhiqianyeguanzhuguode“huagongmao”wanhuahuaxuede4wandunnilong-12channengdapoguowailongduan。

2020nianyilai，jianbanggufenzhengzaijijikaituosaike、taisuanzhidengzhuyingchanpinzhiwaide“dierquxian”，dbm he sbm chanpin。

dbm yu sbm junwei β-ertongleiwendingji，junkezuoweigaixinleiwendingjitixizhongdefuzhuwendingjijinxingdapeishiyong，zaigaishan pvc dechuqizhese、yizhixinshao、tigaorewendingxingheguangwendingxingdengfangmianqidaolezhongyaozuoyong。

zaiyingyonglingyufangmian，dbm chanpinhe sbm chanpindeyingyonglingyucunzaiyidingdezhonghe，erzhejunkeyongyu pvc suliaozhipin，danerzhedezhuyaoyingyonglingyuyousuochayi。dbm zhuyaoyingyongyupvc ruanzhipinjiyingzhipin，rubomo、pvc guancaiguanjian、pvc yixingcai、dianxiandianlan、bancaideng。sbm shishipinjide β-ertongwendingji，shijingmeiguo fda xukeshiyongyushipin、yaopinjiechude pvc cailiao，tebieshiyongyuqiansetoumingzhipin，ruwanju、shipinbaozhuangdai、yiliaoqicaijishuibeideng。

juzhaogushuxianshi，jianbanggufennimuzi2.12yiyuanyongyujianshenianchan7000dunerbenjiaxianjiawan（dbm）zhinengzhizaojigaijikuochanxiangmu，zheiyichannengshuipingyuguoneidbmhesbmlongtoujiaxiangufenjibenxiangdang。

jujiaxiangufenchujuriwei2020nian7yue8ridegongkaizhuanrangshuomingshu，jubuwanquantongji，dangshishichangshangdbm、sbmchannenghejiyue1.5wandun，jiaxiangufenchannengwei3600dun，channengzhanbiyue24%。

lingjujiaxiangufengongkaizhuanrangshuomingshu，jiaxiangufenyoumuzi1yiyuan，yongyujianshenianchan7000dundbmji1000dunsbmshengchanxiangmu。

ju2022nian6yuechujudegongkaixinxi，jiaxiangufendedbmchanliangzhanquanqiude15%yishang，zaiguoneishichangzhanyoulvdadao60%yishang。

yejiushishuo，zai2020niandeshijiandianshang，jianbanggufenhejiaxiangufenturanyiqibaodbmhesbmdechanneng，jihuachannengjiaqilai，budandafuchaoguoguoneiyuanyouxuqiu，erqiezaiguojichannenggejushangyejiangchanshengjiaodayingxiang。

dangran，chuantongguojigongyingshangfangmian，xianzaisihuhaimeiyoufengsheng。dancongdadetaishilaishuo，shiqingzhengzaiqibianhua。

大潮下的时代必然

gaofenzicailiaozhujixingyejuyoujishumijixinghezijinmijixingdetedian，guojigaofenzicailiaohuaxuezhujichanyejiqunhedaxingzonghehuagongjituanzhuyaojizhongzaiouzhou、meiguo、ribendengfadaguojiahediqu，rudeguodebasifu（basf）、meiguodetaoshihuaxue（dow）、dubang（dupont）、faguodeakema（arkema）deng，chanpinleixingfengfuqienenggoufugaicongzhujidaogaofenzicailiaozhipindeyixilieliucheng，zheixiejituandegongyinglianshang，suowei“yinxingguanjun”mijizhadui，gongtongxingchengfanrongerxiangduizhangqiwendingdechanyeshengtai。

deguo“yinxingguanjun”denianlingzhongweishushi66sui，duiyingdeshishangshiji50-60niandaierzhanhoudezhixuzhongjianhexide“gongyeqiji”，bingsuizhe80niandaimoxifangxinziyouzhuyidequanmianshenglierzouxiangquanqiu。

erzhongguodedanxiangguanjun，muqianpingjunnianlingshi20suizuoyou。

jutidaohuagongxingye，suizhezhongguodengfazhanzhongguojiajishushuipinghejichusheshitiaojiandegaishan，huaxuezhujichanyechengxianchuzhujiancongfadaguojiaxiangfazhanzhongguojiayouqishizhongguozhuanyidetaishi。woguogaofenzicailiaozhujichanyeqibujiaowan，danjingguojinnianlaidefazhan，yijingzaichanpinjiegou、chanpinzhiliang、shengchanguimohejishugongyidengfangmianqudelehendadejinbu。

lingyifangmian，2018nianmeiguoduizhongguozhengshikaida“maoyizhan”，yiniquanqiuhuadezitaibipozhongguojiakuaiwanshanzishenchanyelianbulianqianglian，cailiaolingyuzhengshi“kabozi”fengxianjiaodadelingyu，yeshigefangtourudaliangziyuan，jiakuaigongkedezhongdian。

genjuzhongguosuliaojiagonggongyexiehuipiludexinxi，woguozaihuanbaowendingjideyuanfucailiaoyijiguangwendingji、kangyangji、runhuajidengchanpinlingyuyichengweiquanqiuzuidadeshengchanzhizaoguozhiyi，bingyongyoujiaoweiwanzhengdechanyelian，zaiquanqiufanweineiyongyoujiaoqiangdeshichangjingzhengli。

congzheigejiaodulaikan，“tmashijian”bingfeiouran，ershishidaibianjuhezhongguoxiangguanqiyenulizhixiadebiran。

dachaozhongdeyinxingguanjunxuyaobeikanjian，yezhidewomentouruguanzhuhexinxinqufaxianhecuchengshiqingfasheng。