受访嘉宾：兴业银行首席科学家鲁政委
采访记者：财联社记者徐红
文字整理：程昕媛

jizhe：ninhao，jintianhengaoxingyoujihuigenninzuojiaoliu。zhuyaoyousangexianzaibijiaoremendewentixiangninjidajiajiedaxia。diyigewenti，guanyuziguanxingui，zheigezhengcedechutaiduiyuyinxingyedeyingxiangninshizenmekande？

luzhengwei：duiyuyinxingyedeyingxiang，ziguanxinguizuizhongyaodeqishishisuoyouziguanchanpindedagang，zhisuoyibuchengweixianfashiyinweixianfadedengjishizuigaode，dagangjiuyiweizheshiweilaiyinzhengbaoxingongmujijin，baokuoyinxinglicai，doudezhaozheigedaganglai。tafeichangzhongyaodeyitiaoshiweilaideziguanchanpinzaikaihudengfalvshangdouyaoyoupingdengdediwei。

guoquyinxinglicaibijiaodadeyalishishenme？buzhidaogenkerenzhijianshishenmeguanxi。ruguozuoxintuo、jijin，guanxihenqingchu，jijinfa、xintuofahenmingbai，benzhishangshixintuoguanxi。danshiyinxingbenzhishangyeshizheiyangdeguanxi，yinxinglicai。danshiguoquconglaimeiyouzheimemingqueguo，suoyidaozhizheigeguanxiyoudianbuqingbuchu。zheicideziguanxinguijiubazheigechedishuoqingchule，weilaideyinxingsuoyouyinxinglicaiheqitalicaideguanxidouyiyang。

yucitongshi，zheigedagangyeguidinglegongmu、simuliangleichanpin，tongshigongmu、simudechanpinkeyitoudeduixiang，weilaiyeyiyang。suoyizheiyiweizheweilaiyinxingdelicaichanpin，yaomeshishuyusimuchanpinxingde，yaomeshishuyugongmuchanpinxingde，yuelaiyuexiangjijinkaolong，feichangxiangjijin，jiushiyunzuodejijin，kenengshigongmujijin，yekenengshisimujijin。neimeweilaideyinxingyeyaoqiushelizichanguanligongsi，zichanguanligongsijiuyiweizheshiyijiajijingongsi，zheijiuyouxiebianhuale。

diyi，ruguozhanzaiweilaidejiaodulaikan，licaibuzaishiyinxingbentideshi，yinxingbentibuhuiyoulicai，yinxingbendijiuchengweiledaikequdao。danshizhanzaizigongsidejiaodu，yinxingdelicaihuodelegenjijin、xintuo、baoxian、ziguanxiangtongdediweihezige。neimeweilaideyunzuofangshiyehuibiandegentamenyiyang，suoyizheijiuyiweizheguoquyinxinglicaiqishishikaobiaoleilaichifan，suoyinihuifaxianyinxingdelicaishouyiqishishifenqunde，guoyouyinxingdeshouyilvchabuduo，gufenzhiyinxingshiyizhongshouyi，chengshangxingyeshiyizhongshouyi，chabiebushihenda。danshiweilaijiuyaokaobenshichifanle，zheijiuyiweizhesheidetouyanguanlinengliqiang，neimexiangtongleixingdelicaikenengshouyichabiejiuhuihenda，zheijiushixinbianhua。

jizhe：diergewenti，xiwangninliaoliaoguanyuwaiziquanshangzuixindezhengceshangdebianhua，jiushiwaizikeyikongguquanshang，buzhidaozheiduiyuguoneiquanshangyedegejuhuiyoushenmeyangdeyingxiang？

luzhengwei：congzuijinshijiniandefazhanlaikan，guoneidejinrongyewulunshiyinxinghaishizhengquandouqudelezhangzudejinbu，zaiguoneidezibenshichangshang，yeyouyipifeichangyoushilidequanshangyongxianchulai。yucitongshi，womenyezhuyidaozouxianghaiwaideshihou，guoneidequanshangyezhujianyouyipianxindetiandi。

danshizaicaifuguanlishang，fuwudefangshishangyijiguojidebinggouguochengzhong，kongpaguoneidequanshangshilishipianruode，erxianzaimianduizheyidaiyilu，mianduizheqiyegengduodezouchuqu。suoyizheigeshihoukaifangwaizilaikongguguoneidequanshang，jishiguojiajinyibuduiwaikaifangdexuyao，yeshiguoneideshitiqiyedezouchuqudexuyao，qishiyeshizhanzaikaifangdelianggejieduan，diyigejieduanshizhizaoyedekaifang，xianzaijinrulefuwuyedekaifangjieduan，erjinrongyeqishishifuwuyefeichangdadeyibufen，yejiushijinrongyedekaifangjieduan。

wodelijieshikaifangzhihou，duiyujingneideshichanghuiqidaonianyuxiaoying，waizikonggudequanshanghuizaichanpinshang、fuwufangshishang，tebieshiwaibidelicaishanghuizhanxianchugengduodeyoushi。danshiwomenzhongguodezheixieqiyeconglaidoushibupajingzhengde，tongguodajiahudongdeguochengzhong，yekeyirangguoneidequanshangdedaogengkuaidefazhan，tongshiyenengmibuguoneidequanshangmuqianzaidaidongzhongguoqiyezouchuqudefangmiandebuzu。

huoxuhaiyouyigemeiyouyishidaodezuoyong，qishiwuyizhonghuiyindaozhongguojinrongyedezonghehuajingyingdexiangqiantuijin，yinweihenduowaizideshenqingyaokongguquanshangmutidoushiyinxing，erzheixieyinxingzaijingneiyijingshifarenyinxing，farenyinxingyaozaijingneikonggufarenquanshang，zheijiuyiweizhezonghehuadejingzheng，neimezaiweilaineiwaiyizhidebiaozhunxia，zhongguodezonghehuajingyingweilaiyejiangjinyibudixiangqiantuijin，jinyibudishenhua。

jizhe：gangcaininzaiyanjiangzhongyezhongdiantandaozhongguojingjiquganggandeshiqing，xianzaidajiayedoufeichangxianglejie，zhongguojingjijingguoqunianyinianduodequgangganzhihouninzenmepingjiaxianzaiqudedexiaoguo，duiyuweilaizhengceshangdezouxiangninyoushizenmeyuqide？

luzhengwei：qudedexiaoguo，diyi，gangganlvshangshengsudumingxianfanghuan，hongguandegangganjibenshangdaolebijiaogaoweiwendingle，weilaiyouwangbaochipingwen，ranhouxiajiang，zhengcebushuyeyou2017nianquanmianzongliangshangdekongzhixinyongdekuozhangdaojinnianbiaoxianweizongliangshangdexinyongkuozhangchiwen。zhuyaoshixiayibuzoudaodejiegouxingquganggan，naxielingyugangganlvbijiaogaojiuzhelijiejuetadewentidezhuangtai。

jizhe：kenengdadejumianyijingkongzhizhule，jiexialaikenengzuoxiezhongdiandexiubu。

luzhengwei：yiqianyinjianhuiyongleyigehenhaodeci，baxiangzhiliao，kannagedifangdewentibijiaoyanzhongjiuzhinali，xianzaizhezhongzhigaoganggandelingyuhuozhezhuti，fangdichan、difangzhengfurongzipingtai、gaofuzhaideguoyouqiye，zheidoushishuyutijianyibianzhihoufaxianzheixiedifangwentibijiaoyanzhongde，xianzaiyaozhitamen。

jizhe：xiangliaoyixiaguanyuzhongmeijingmaodezhongmeimaoyizhan，wobuzhidaoduiyuzheigeninzenmekan？zenmeyupan？

luzhengwei：duiyuzhongmeimaoyizhanqishiwulunruhechulidouhuifasheng，erqiezaowanhuifasheng，yinweizhongguojingjiyuelaiyueda，xianzaizhongmeiliangguobingweiquanqiudeliangdajingjiti。meiguodaodiyuanyizhaosheidecha？sheishitademaoyinichaqiansandalaiyuanditajiuzhaosheidecha，ciqianzhaoguodeguo、riben，erzhanzhihouzhaoleyazhousixiaolongdecha，houlaijiuzhaodaozhongguoshenshang，yinweizhongguochengweitademaoyinichazuidadelaiyuandi。

suoyizhongmeimaoyizhandiyicengyuanyinlaiziyumeiguozhangqiyilaiduiyunichadeguanzhu，taxiwangjiannichadeyuanwang。diercenglaiziyutelangputebiedexuanminzhichiqunti，suoweidebaojiuye，dajiadoushuoshilanlinggongrenbatelangpusongjinlebaigong，chuantonggongyequzaimeiguoshibijiaoluohoude，danshizaizhongguojiushizheigejieduanle，kaishiyouzhengmianjingzhengle，suoyitahaiyaobaojiuye，zheishidiergeyuanyin。

disangeyuanyin，ezhizhongguodeganchao。yinweizhongguozaiyixiezhongdianlingyuyijingqudeletupo，rangmeiguofeichangdanxin。suoyizheigemocayidinghuifanfanfufudifasheng。congtanpandejiaoduwojuedeyidingyaotandaowushisanke，danshiyebuyaozhiwangzheicitantuohuitaipinghenzhangshijian。congmeiguolaishuoezhizhongguozhudingbuhuiqudechenggong，weishenme？zhongguoshidaguojingji，buguanzaiqitadeshangmianshibushiyouyoushi，fanshijuyouguimojingjihefanweijingjidechanye，zhongguoyidingdouhuijianglaihoulaijushang。renduo、shichangda，guimojingjijiushiyaodadaoyidingdechanliangzhihoucaiyoujingzhengyoushide，birushuoqiche，weilaibuchuwunianzhongguodeqicheyidingshishibianquanqiu，shifeichanglihaide，yinweiqicheshibijiaodianxingdeguimojingjichanye。birushuoquanchanyeliandedongxi，guimojingjizaihulianwangdetezhengshangfeichangmingxian，weishenmezhongguohenduohulianwangqiyezaiquanqiudoubijiaolingxian？henzhongyaodejiushijuyouguimoxiaoyi。

zaizheicidemaoyizhandejieguo，weishenmeyuqizhongmeishuangfangyidingnenggouhejieni？zhuyaodeyuanyinjiushizhongguoyouzijidutedeyoushi，zheigeyoushijiushiyouquanqiuwukepidide13yirendezhongdengshourudashichang，zheiyidianshiwuketidaide。erqietashiyouxiaofeinenglide，qitadifangguotuguang，renduo，danshimeiyouxiaofeinengli。zhongguoshiyouxianshidexiaofeinengli。

dier，meiguodedongxishiketidaide，meiguodejishushibizhongguoxianjinhenduo，haoxiangyizhicaiqueshiyoudiannanshou，danshiouzhoubuhuima？nihuidesuoyoudongxijihuouzhoudouhui，nishuobujixinpian，mashangyouyijiaouzhoudexinpiangongsigenzhongguohezuo，zhibuguoguoqumeiguodexinpianchengbenbijiaodi，shibushiouzhoujiumeiyouzheigejishuni？bushi。suoyiyidannijixuda，zhongguojixukaifangdechengguojiubeiouzhouzhaile。telangpudabantianyaoshenme？zuihouguoziyemeiyouzhaidiao，xuanminnengzhichinima？

suoyizuihoudejieguo，wojuedeyidinghuizoudaoyiqilai。

jizhe：zaiwenyigewenti，ningangcaitandaoguimojingji，wozhenghaoqianliangtiankandaoyipianwenzhangshuochaoxianxianzaiyezaizuogaigekaifang，wokandaoyouxierenrenweitahuihennanchenggong，jiushiyinweirenkoushao。

luzhengwei：zheishuodebudui。birushuoxinjiapo、miandian、jianpuzhairenyehenshao，danshigaigekaifangzhihouyiranjingjinenggouhuodexunsudefazhan。

jugelizi，2016nianwoquleyitangriben，jieguofaxianhenre，yifuhanshileyaomaiyijianduanxiu，jieguoyikanyingwenzimubuchangjian，yichashijianpuzhaide，jianpuzhaizaiguoqudejinianlixiyinlebijiaoduodewaizi，zhibuguosannianzhineigongrendegongzifanfanwangshangzhang，rentaishaole，henkuaichengbenjiushangzhangle，zhongguoguoqudeyoushijiushirentebieduo。ruguochaoxiankaifangyihouyiranhuixiyinwaizidejinru，yiranxiangduiyuzijideguoquyouhenhaodefazhan。danshibuyidingyouguimodejingji，yikaodichengbendelaodongliyoushidechanyeyiranhuihuode，birushuofangzhi，suoyidiyijieduanjueduishifangzhinvgongdedaiyuhuibiandefeichanghao，fangzhichang。zhongguodiyidaidekaifangjiushifangzhichengyi，dierdaicaishiwanjuzhizaoye。

jizhe：haode，mingbai，zheishigechawendewenti。wohaiyougewentishigangcaininzaiyanjiangzhongshuodaozhaizhuangudejizhishejibushihenheli？

luzhengwei：diyigewentitameiyouwenti，jiushiqiyededaodefengxian，zhuanguzhuanle，yiranbufenhong，zenmeban？diergewenti，tameiyoujiejueshangyeyinxingzibenjinzhanyongdewenti。zheigeqiyeruguomaijizhuangugongsi，tayaobingbiaoshanglaiyaotihenduodeziben，ruguomaijibieren，zheigeqiyehaozhuanlegenwomeiguanxi，neiwoyoubuyuanyimaijirenjia，maiguilerenjiabuyao，maibianyilewobuqingyuan，neijiuyouwenti。fanzhengmaijizhuangugongsi，zheigegongsihaozhuanlewohaikeyifenqian。danshiwentishizibendezhanyongyouwenti。zheijiushiweishenmehenduozhaizhuanguzaiguoqucengjingmeitibaodaoguo，qishiqianqichuxianlebushaodezhaizhuangushizhaizhuanmingushizhai，weishenme？jiushiyinweitadezhaiquandebudaobaozhang。