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【界面资本论坛】李迅雷：经济分化背景下的存量改革与投资机会

2020nian6yue23ri，youshanghaibaoyejituanshujiemianxinwenzhubande【jiemianzibenluntan】zaixianshangjuban。zhongtaizhengquanshouxijingjixuejialixunleizailuntanshangfabiaozhuzhiyanjiang《jingjifenhuabeijingxiadecunlianggaigeyutouzijihui》。

来源：界面新闻

2020nian6yue23ri，youshanghaibaoyejituanshujiemianxinwenzhuban、fudandaxuefanhaiguojijinrongxueyuandujiaxueshuzhichi、bosidengzhanlvehezuode【jiemianzibenluntan】yuxianshangjuban。zhongtaizhengquanshouxijingjixuejialixunleixianshengfabiaozhuzhiyanjiang《jingjifenhuabeijingxiadecunlianggaigeyutouzijihui》，zhenduidangqianjingjilingyuchuxiandefenhuaxianxiang，yijihouyiqingjieduandecunlianggaigeyujiegouxingtouzijihuifenxiangzuixinguandian。

tazhichu，nianchuyilaixinguanyiqingchixushijianyuanchaoyuqi，jiasulequanqiujingjishuaituibufa。zaibuquedingxingjiaqiang、jingjijiansuguochengzhong，renkouyuquyujingji、juminshouru、chanyefazhanyuqiyejingzhengdengfangmiandejiegoufenhuajianchengqushi，cunliangjingjitezhenggengjiamingxian。duici，chulechangguicaizhengyuhuobizhengcezhiwai，gengyingzheyanyuyangdiguanxi、guoqihungai、shitizhichi、shourufenpeidengfangmian，yiciqudongtudi、laodongli、zibendengyaosushichangdejiegouxinggaige，daidongjingjizengzhang。

jingjifenhuaqushixia，gaigetongbutuijin，touzibujuyeyaoshunyingzheiyangdequshi。tarenwei，mianduiyiqingyingxiangyuquanqiujingjishuaituijumian，huangjindengbixianzichan、zijinhuorenkoujingliuruquyu、lilvzhaidouzhidejinxingpeizhi。

以下为李迅雷在【界面资本论坛】上演讲实录：

geweilaibin，dajiahao。jintianhenrongxingyingjiemianxinwenyaoqingcanjiacicizibenluntan，woyanjiangdetimushi《jingjifenhuabeijingxiadecunlianggaigeyutouzijihui》，fenweisibufenneirong。

一、疫情加速全球经济衰退步伐

bencixinguan(covid-19)yiqingbaofazhijin,yiyou5geyueyu。jiumuqianqingkuangeryan，zhongguokongzhidefeichanghao，ouzhoujibendedaokongzhi，meiguohaichuzaiyiqingpingtaiqi，meiyouxianzhuxiaxing，qiesuizhefuchanfugong，haicunzaiercibaofadekeneng，lamei、feizhou、yindudengyiliaoweishengtiaojianxiangduijiaochadediquchuyushikongzhuangtai。zongeryanzhi，zheiciyiqingchixudeshijian，yuanbidajiazuichudeyuqijiudeduo。

疫情导致全球贸易低迷。即便没有疫情，全球贸易也处在下行趋势之中，贸易增速低于GDP增速，而疫情使得全球经济停摆。jiujinqishujueryan，5yuefenzhongguowaimaochukouweifuzengzhang，deguochukoudafuduxiahua，biaomingquanqiujingjicunzaishuaituifengxian。2019nianquanqiujingjizengsupubianxiaxing，wulunshioumeihaishizhongguo、yindu，quanqiumeiyouliangdian。quanqiujingjijiegouxingwentizhangqidebudaoyouxiaojiejue，shuaituiqushiyixian，yiqingzhishijiasuleshuaitui。

yingduiyiqingjiqizaochengdeyingxiang，geguokecaiqudeshouduanhenyouxian，biru，ouzhou、meiguo、ribendoutongguojiangdililvshuiping、caiquwuxianlianghuakuansongdehuobizhengce。oumengheribendelilvbenlaijiushifude，meilianchujingguoliangcidiaozhenglilv，shidelianbangjijinlilvbianweilinglilv。zheiyangdaguimojiangdililvshuiping，zailishishangjuewujinyoude。jinnianmeiguodecaizhengchizilvgujihuidadao15%yishang，keyuerzhanhouxiangtibinglun。jiangxi、wuxianliangshifangliudongxinglihaogushi，danshi，duizhengtijingjidehuifusuonengqidaodezuoyongfeichangyouxian。

以美国为例，二战之后美国的贫富差距不断扩大，现已处于极度分化状态。最近由美国黑人事件导火，全国各地爆发示威游行，有些地方甚至出现打砸抢情况。这些社会现象的背后是经济分化，尤其是贫富极度分化、居民财富收入分化，比如，1%的人拥有50%的财富，必然会导致社会不平衡。可以看到，美国历史上发生的每一次暴乱，都与低利率相关，利率在不断下行或者处于历史低位时爆发暴动。经济下行触发利率下调，而失业率的上升，使得失业群体和低收入阶层生活陷入窘境，心态失衡，容易产生对社会的反抗情绪。全球经济有可能步入衰退，疫情只是改变了衰退的斜率，使得原本较为平缓的斜率变得陡峭，而各国政府采取的政策措施，只能让斜率放得平缓些，但无法改变全球经济的衰退趋势。

erzhanjieshuzhijin，yijingguole75nian，zaiciqijianquanqiujingjidedaolefeichangxunmengdefazhan。meiguozuoweiquanqiujingjizuizhongyaodefadongji，yizhiyinlingzhequanqiujingjidezengzhang，ciwai，ribenhezhongguoyexianhouqidaozhongyaozuoyong。rujin，zhongguojingjizengsufanghuan，neime，xiayigejianghuishishei？yourenbaxiwangjituozaiyindushenshang，raner，yindudejingjitiliangzhiyouzhongguode1/5，jingjizengsubizhongguohaiyaodi。zongeryanzhi，zaiquanqiujingjimeiyouredian、jiegouxingwentiriyiyanzhongdeqingkuangxia，zheizhongshuaituikongpahaishinanyibimian。

zhanwangweilai，quanqiujingjikenenghuijinrudizengzhang、gaozhendangtaishi，shehuizhengzhidebuwending、diyuanzhengzhichongtudengkenenghuichengweichangtai。jiuzhongguoeryan，yemianlinzheniquanqiuhuadeyali。

二、经济减速，结构分化渐成趋势

guoqushinian，womenjingjizengsumubiaomeiniandouzaiwangxiadiao。jinnian，youyuyiqingdailaidebuquedingxing，meiyouzaishegdpzengzhangmubiao。danshi，wentizaiyulazhangshijianlaikan，guoqu10niangdpzengsumubiaoweishenmebuduanxiadiaoni？yinweiwoguodejingjitiliangyuelaiyueda，jingjijiegouxingwentiyexianxianchulai，zengliangdebufenduicunliangdeyingxiangyuelaiyuexiao，zheijiushiwosuojiangdezhongguocunliangjingjidetezheng。zengliangjingjidetezhengshigexinggeyexinxinxiangrong，daxingqiye、xiaoqiyedouyouyinglikongjian，ercunliangjingjidetezhengshicixiaobizhang。suoyi，cunliangjingjiyuzengliangjingjiyouxianzhuqubie，cunliangjingjigengduodeshichuxianyizhongfenhua，zheizhongfenhuazhuyaobiaoxianzaiyixiasigefangmian：

第一个分化：人口和区域经济的分化。dangzhongguojingjifazhanburujiansujieduan，tongshimianduidewentishirenkoudelaolinghua。zhongguojingjizengsuweishenmehuixiajiang，qishiyouhenduoyuanyin，biru，zheiyeshiyigeshuxueguilv，dangfenmuyuelaiyuedashi，fenziduifenmudeyingxiangjiuxiaole，zengsujiufanghuanle，haiyourenkoulaolinghualvbuduanshangsheng，dengdeng。cunliangjingjizengsufanghuandebeijingzhixia，bushisuoyoudifangdouyoutouzijihuihejiuyejihui，chengxianchudeshifenhuadebujunheng。

zongtilaikan，renkouxiangjingjifada、huoliqiangdediquliudong。2019nian，zhongguorenkouliudongzuiyinrenzhumudeshi，zhejiangrenkoujingliuruliangchaoguoguangdong、chengweizhongguorenkouliuruzuiduodeshengfen。zhejiangjingjitiliangyuepaizaiquanguodiwuwei，guangdongpaidiyiwei，guangdongderenkoujishujihushizhejiangdeliangbei，neime，weishenmezhejiangderenkouliuruliangneimedani？xianran，zhejiangdejingjiliangdiangengduo，touzijihuigengduo，xinxingchanyefazhangengkuai。suoyi，congzhengtishangkan，renkouwangzhejiangliudong，wangzhangjiangsanjiaozhouliudong。lingwai，jiu2019zhuyaochengshichangzhurenkouzenglianglaikan，hangzhoudiyi，shenzhendier，jirenkoudiergeliuxiangshizhujiangsanjiaozhou。naxiedifangderenkouliuchuleni？zongtilaishuo，dongbei、xibei、huabeidengdiderenkoujingliuchu。suoyishuo，xianjinjingjifazhancixiaobizhangdetedianhaishihenmingxiande，jianglaijingjifazhandezhongxinyehuisuizhecunliangjingjixiadefenhuayuelaiyuemingxian。

yucixiangguande，shichengzhenhualvdeshangshengsuduzaixiajiang。cong2011nianqi，zhongguochengzhenhuasudumingxianfanghuan，guoquchengzhenhualvmeiniantigao1.4gebaifendian，2019nianyijiangdao1.06gebaifendian。jinhoujinian，zheigeshujuhaihuiyizhixiajiang，yinweinongmingongjinchengdeshuliangzhujianjianshao。youyurenkoulaolinghuaheliudongrenkoushuliangdejianshao，cong2012nianzhijinbaniandeshijianli，zhongguolaodongnianlingrenkoushuliangjingjianshaole2800duowanren。guci，yebuyaoduichengzhenhuajiyuguogaoqiwang。yucixiangduiyingde，shidachengshihua，gengduoderenkouwangdachengshiliudong，jiwangshenghuichengshi、jingjifadaderemenchengshiliudong。zhongguoxianzaichengzhenhualvsudufanghuan，danshidachengshihuadejinchengfangxingweiai，zheiyeshiherenkoufenhua、diqufenhuaxiangguande。

第二个分化：居民收入的分化。zheizhongfenhuaduixiaofeibuli，bingjijingjijiegoudediaozhengdailaiyidingnandu。congqushishanglaijiang，chengxiangjumindeshouruchajuzaisuoxiao，zheishiyigehaoxianxiang；lingyigefangmian，gaoshourujiecengyuzhongdishourujiecengdeshouruchajuhaizaikuoda。jugelizi， 2016- 2019nian，zhongguogaoshouruzudeshouruzengzhang29%，zhongdengshouruzudeshouruzengzhang19%，shouruchajurengzaibuduankuoda。zaixiaofeilingyu，biaoxianweishechipinxiaofeifeichanghuobao，danzhenggeshehuilingshoupindexiaofeizengsuzhunianxiajiang。zhangqilaijiang，zheizhongqingkuanghuidailaijingjidongnengdexiajiang，yinweizhongguojingjiyiburuxiaofeizhudaojieduan，erxiaofeidezhutishizhongdishourujieceng，dangxiaofeizhulishouruzengsufanghuan，duixiaofeiyehuidailaixiangyingdefumianyingxiang。liru，zhongguoqichezhengtixiaoliangzaixiajiang，danhaohuachedexiaoliangbaochizhengzengzhang。zaikanshechipinxiaofei，3-4yuefen，oumeishechipinxiajiangle20-30%，zhongguoqueshangshengle30-50%，zheiyeshishourufenhuadailaidexiaofeimouzhongchengdushangdeniuqu。

第三个分化：产业分化。新兴产业发展迅猛，传统产业增速放缓。2019nian，xinxichuanshu、ruanjianhexinxijishufuwuyezengjiazhi32690yiyuan，zengzhang18.7%，duibifangdichande3%、jianzhuyede5.6%hejinrongyede7.2%，xinjingjiduigdpzengzhangdezhichengzuoyongmingxian。zheiyedailaileyixiejiegouxingwenti，ruchuantongchanyejingjizengsuxiajiang，daozhichuantongchanyecongyerenyuanjiuyeyali，suiranxinxingchanyeyekeyijiejuejiuye，danxinxingchanyesuojiejuedejiuyerenshugenchuantongchanyexiaxingsuodailaideshiyerenshuxiangbishibuduichengde。juyigejiandandelizi，ruo gdpshangsheng1gebaifendian，jiuyekezengjia200duowanren，danshigdpxiaxing1gebaifendian，shiyehuizengjia300duowanren，shiyedezhuyaoshichuantongchanye，xinzengjiuyewangwangshixinxingchanye，zheishichanyefenhuaguochengzhizhongmianlindewenti。

第四个分化：企业的分化。产业向头部集中，头部企业市场份额不断提升。biru，jiadianxingyesandajutoushidaimingxianshangsheng，jigeli、meidehehaier，fangdichanlingyuyeshiruci。toubuqiyeshichangfenebuduantisheng，duitigaoqiyexiaolvshiyouhaochude，danyedailaileyixiewenti，ruyouyushichangfenewangtoubujizhong，zengjialezhongxiaoweiqiyedejingyingyali，erzhongxiaoweiqiyeduiyudaidongjiuyedezuoyongshifeichangmingxiande。

总体来讲，分化是存量经济下的特征，分化导致了优胜劣汰，分化也提升了整个社会资源配置效率，副作用是对就业产生一定压力。

zaixifangshehui，fenhuazaojiufashengle。biru，jiuzibenshichanglaikan，womentongjilemeiguocidaiweijizhihouguoqu11niangushidebiaoxian，meiguogushiyechuxianlefenhua。buyaokandaomuqiannasidakegushichuanglexingao，jiurenweisuoyougupiaodouyoutouzijihui，neijiucuole，gushishang“erbaxianxiang”feichangmingxian，shenzhishi“yijiuxianxiang”。yinasidakeweili，nasidakeyiyou4000duojiashangshigongsituishi，xianshengyu2800jiashangshigongsi。zhei2800jiashangshigongsiguoqu11niandangzhong，zhangfuzhongweishuwei33%，feichangzhidi。danshi，zhangfuzuidadeqian10%gupiao，yejiushi280jiashangshigongsidepingjunzhangfu，dadaole19.6bei，suozhanshizhiweinasidakezongshizhide50%，shidianxingde“erbaxianxiang”。gujizhongguogushideweilaiyeruci，shangzhangdeshishaoshu，qiehuiyinshizhida、quanzhongda，duizhishudedaidongzuoyongjiufeichangmingxian。guzhizhangdexiren，bingbudengyusuoyougupiaodouzhang，xiangdangyidabufendegupiaobuzhangshenzhihaixiadie。

三、存量经济下，中国将突出改革主线

第三部分，讲一讲我们该如何应对。在前面，我讲了存量经济下的分化有利有弊，我们采取的应对措施是财政政策和货币政策。但是，无论是财政政策，还是货币政策，都只是治标，还是要通过改革来解决深层次问题，解决结构性问题。jinnianzhengfugongzuobaogaoduicaizhengzhengcefangmianhaishifeichangwenjiande，zaitourushangmianbidajiayuqihuilvediyidian，danyouyigexintezhengshiyaobaqianyongzaidaorenshang，yuyiwangcaizhengzhengceyingduijingjixiaxingdebiaoxianyoufeichangmingxiandequbie。dajiasuoqiwangdejijianhuozhexinjijianmeiyoudaguimotouru，ershibagengduodeqianyongzaiminshengshang，worenweizheigefangxiangshiduide。womendecaizhengshixishuizhangliu，buxiangmeiguoxianzaisuocaiqudecuoshi，shiyongfeichangjiandancubaodefangshilaiyingduiyiqing、yingduiyiqingdaozhidejingjiwenti、yingduimeiguominzhongdebumanqingxu，shidemeiguozhaiwushuipingdadaoqiansuoweiyoudegaodu，duiweilaichanshenglehendayali，yejiushibakunnanyanhoule，worenweizheibushiyigemingzhixuanze，ershiyizhongduanqixingwei。

对中国来讲，财政政策相对而言是比较节制的，货币政策空间会更大。youqixianzaijingjixiaxing，zhongmeizhijianlichayouzaikuoda，jijiangzhun、jiangxiliuxiabijiaodadekongjian。suoyi，cicizhengfugongzuobaogaotidaoleliangge“zhida”，qizhongzhiyishihuobihexinzengxindaizhidazhongxiaoweiqiye，jiangdizhongjianhuanjieganrao，fangzhijianguantaoli，zheixiezhengceshijishanggengbiaoxiankuanxinyong、wenhuobi。dancongzhangqilaijiang，quanqiujingjishuaitui，zhongguojingjicunzaixiaxingyali，zhongguojiangxidekongjianhaishibijiaodade。wuluncaizhengzhengcehaishihuobizhengce，gengjiazhuzhongxiaolvtisheng，jiangqianyongdaoheshidedifang，shiyonggengjiajingzhun，zheishiyinggaiyaozhuyidaode。

2019年政府工作报告中，30次提到“就业”； 2020年，则39次提到“就业”，提及频率增长了30%。显然，在经济增长下行过程中，就业压力是比较大的，怎么去应对就业？一方面要加大复工复产力度，另外一方面创造灵活就业。meiguoshijiandancubaojiyushiyerenkouguoduobutie，zheizhongbutiebaokuoyinchao。meiguoyongyouzhubishui，keyixiangquanshijiezhengshouzhubishui，yincipinmingyinfameichao，xiangdangbufuzeren。yumeiguoxiangbi，zhongguoshiduoguanqixia，zhaoshangyinzi、fugongfuchan、gaishanyingshanghuanjing，lingwai，tongguogaigetuijinjiejueyixiejiegouxingwenti，ruqianmianjiangdaode“sigefenhua”xianxiangdeng。

对于结构化问题如何应对？首先，中国经济跟美国和欧盟经济一样，存在三大部门，政府部门、企业部门和居民部门，要将这三大部门之间的关系协调好，结构合理。此次总理报告中也体现出来，国企给民企让利，银行（金融）给实体让利，中央给地方让利，富人给穷人让利，逐步缩小高收入家庭与中低收入家庭差距。所有的改革，包括国有企业改革、行政体制改革，都是围绕着三大部门之间的关系合理来展开的，同时三大部门内部结构也更加合理，要缩小差距、提高效率、增强活力。我们与欧盟、美国、日本等一些主要经济体的不同之处在于：我们强调了改革，希望通过改革来带动经济结构合理，带动经济增长。

qianbujiu，woguotuichuleshenhuatudi、laodongli、zibendengshichanghuapeizhigaige，jiakuaipeiyujishuheshujuyaosushichang，tongshiyeyaojiakuaiyaosushichanghuadegaige，yaojianquanyaosushichangdejiaoyujizhi。yucixiangguan，zibenshichanggaigeliduyezaizhubujiada，biru，kechuangbanzhucezhishidiantuiguangdaochuangyebanzhucezhishidian，weilaisuoyoubankuaidezhucezhigaige，xinde《zhengquanfa》yedeyishishi。zheicizhengfugongzuobaogaoxiugaigaozhong，duizibenshichanggaigezengjialefazhanduocengcizibenshichang，zheilizhuyaoshibaokuoxinsanban，fenjingxuanceng、chuangxincengdengdeng。tongguoguifanshichang，shidezhijierongzibilijinyibutigao，tongshiyaoyangetuishizhidu，jiadayoushenglietailidu，duizibenshichangzuoqiangzuodadoudailaiyoulijihui。

四，分化趋势下的资产配置思路

首先，看好避险资产——黄金。zaiguoqu50niandangzhong，huangjindezhangfulingxianyuqitazichan，weishenmehuilingxian？zhuyaohaishiyinweiquanqiuhuobichaofa，youqishimeiyuanchaofa。1971nianbuleidunsenlintixijieti，shidemeiyuangenhuangjintuogou，congcizhihouhuangjinzhangfumingxianjiada。guoqude50nianzhong，meiyuandehanjinliangjihusuoshuile97%，erqitaxinxingzhibiduimeiyuandadoubianzhi90%yishang，zaihuangjinmianqiangengshijihuyiwenbuzhi。huangjinbenshenshitianrandehuobi，huangjinyouliangdagongneng，yigeshibixian，yingduijingjishuaitui，yingduitouzizhefengxianpianhaoxiajiang；lingwaijiushitianshengdehuobi，juyoutouzigongneng，huobifanlanzhihou，huangjinsuiranshangzhang，danshangzhangfuduyeyuanyuanxiaoyuhuobichaofafudu。

第二类，谈一下大家普遍关注的房地产。货币政策是否会不断宽松？那么，应对货币贬值，是不是应该配置房地产？实际上，中国已经出现四大分化，房价与人口流向、货币流向相关，无论房地产还是股市，更多表现为结构性机会。过去十几年，政策覆盖了所有领域、所有区域，但不可能每个区域都会发展得非常好，而是呈现分化态势。过去提的较多的是大范围振兴，比如东北振兴、西部大开发、中部崛起，现在更加强调一体化，比如京津冀一体化、长三角一体化、粤港澳大湾区、发展长江经济带等，这些是政策上的平衡，但是现实是不平衡的。既然现实不平衡，我们就要追求投资的精准。比如，长三角中浙江发展最快，浙江人口最多，我们更加要关注杭州湾；珠三角整体发展很快，但发展最快的地方是粤港澳湾区，广东省整体发展不平衡，深圳、广州、佛山、珠海、东莞等人口增加较块，其他城市负增长。如果配置房地产，应配置未来5到10年人口净流入或资金净流入的地方，或者产业发展非常迅猛的地方。我们现在投资应该从面找到线，将来由线找到点，即哪些点是值得投资的，yinweifenhuayuelaiyueda，xiangmeiguocunzaitiexiudidai，jingjiwangredianchengshijizhongbijiaomingxian，guoqudefanrongbingbudaibiaojianglaiyizhihuifanrong，meiguodeqichechengditelvjiuchuxianmingxianshuaitui，womenjinrudaocunliangjingjishidai、fenhuashidai，yidingyaojingzhuntouzi。

第三个资产配置，我看好利率债。suiranzuijinzheiduanshijian，lilvzhaixiadiao，zhuyaoyouyudajiaduikuanxinyongdeyuqi，renweililvjiangbuleduoshao。worenwei，lilvhaihuijiang，yinweijingjizaiwangxiazou，quanqiujingjidashuaituijumianmeiyoufashenggenbenbianhua。suoyi，lilvzhaihaishizhidequpeizhi，womenyaokandegengjiazhangyuan。

对于股票市场来讲，是结构性机会，bukenengyouquanmianpuzhangdedaniushi，yeshicunzaizhefenhua。agudetuishilvshuipingfeichangdi，zhiyoumeiguode1/10，jianglaihuiyouyipigupiaotuishi，duitouzilaijiangfengxianyezaijiada；lingyifangmian，yaokanhaoxingye，qianmianjiangdaoxingyefenhua，kejiadaxinxingxingyetouzilidu。

另外，企业也在分化，要抓住头部企业的投资机会，简单来说就是抓大放小。guoqu，womenkanhaoxiaoshizhigupiao，yinweixiaoshizhigupiaoyouqiaoziyuan，zaizhucezhihou，tuishilvyaoshangsheng，xiaoshizhikenengyuelaiyuebuzhiqianle，zheijiushiweishenmeqiangdiaozhuadafangxiao，dangranyeyouxiaodehaoqiye，zongtilaijiang，touziyaogenoumeishichangyuelaiyuejiegui，dashizhigupiaoyougengduotouzijihui。

zhengtilaijiang，mianduiyiqingyousandapeizhisilu，diyidasilushichanyefazhanqushi，dierdasilushizhengcedaoxiang，yaoguanzhuzhengcezaizhuzhangshenme、tichangshenme、zhichishenme，disandasiluyaozhuazhuqiyefenhuajihui，qiyehuiyuelaiyueduodejizhongdaotoubu。fenhuadeshidai，gaigezaitongbutuijin，jiegouzaizhuanxing，zichanpeizhiyeyaoshunyingzheiyangdequshi。

yishangshiwodebaogao，xiexiedajia！

未经正式授权严禁转载本文，侵权必究。

【界面资本论坛】李迅雷：经济分化背景下的存量改革与投资机会

2020nian6yue23ri，youshanghaibaoyejituanshujiemianxinwenzhubande【jiemianzibenluntan】zaixianshangjuban。zhongtaizhengquanshouxijingjixuejialixunleizailuntanshangfabiaozhuzhiyanjiang《jingjifenhuabeijingxiadecunlianggaigeyutouzijihui》。

2020/06/23 11:30来源：界面新闻

2020nian6yue23ri，youshanghaibaoyejituanshujiemianxinwenzhuban、fudandaxuefanhaiguojijinrongxueyuandujiaxueshuzhichi、bosidengzhanlvehezuode【jiemianzibenluntan】yuxianshangjuban。zhongtaizhengquanshouxijingjixuejialixunleixianshengfabiaozhuzhiyanjiang《jingjifenhuabeijingxiadecunlianggaigeyutouzijihui》，zhenduidangqianjingjilingyuchuxiandefenhuaxianxiang，yijihouyiqingjieduandecunlianggaigeyujiegouxingtouzijihuifenxiangzuixinguandian。

tazhichu，nianchuyilaixinguanyiqingchixushijianyuanchaoyuqi，jiasulequanqiujingjishuaituibufa。zaibuquedingxingjiaqiang、jingjijiansuguochengzhong，renkouyuquyujingji、juminshouru、chanyefazhanyuqiyejingzhengdengfangmiandejiegoufenhuajianchengqushi，cunliangjingjitezhenggengjiamingxian。duici，chulechangguicaizhengyuhuobizhengcezhiwai，gengyingzheyanyuyangdiguanxi、guoqihungai、shitizhichi、shourufenpeidengfangmian，yiciqudongtudi、laodongli、zibendengyaosushichangdejiegouxinggaige，daidongjingjizengzhang。

jingjifenhuaqushixia，gaigetongbutuijin，touzibujuyeyaoshunyingzheiyangdequshi。tarenwei，mianduiyiqingyingxiangyuquanqiujingjishuaituijumian，huangjindengbixianzichan、zijinhuorenkoujingliuruquyu、lilvzhaidouzhidejinxingpeizhi。

以下为李迅雷在【界面资本论坛】上演讲实录：

geweilaibin，dajiahao。jintianhenrongxingyingjiemianxinwenyaoqingcanjiacicizibenluntan，woyanjiangdetimushi《jingjifenhuabeijingxiadecunlianggaigeyutouzijihui》，fenweisibufenneirong。

一、疫情加速全球经济衰退步伐

bencixinguan(covid-19)yiqingbaofazhijin,yiyou5geyueyu。jiumuqianqingkuangeryan，zhongguokongzhidefeichanghao，ouzhoujibendedaokongzhi，meiguohaichuzaiyiqingpingtaiqi，meiyouxianzhuxiaxing，qiesuizhefuchanfugong，haicunzaiercibaofadekeneng，lamei、feizhou、yindudengyiliaoweishengtiaojianxiangduijiaochadediquchuyushikongzhuangtai。zongeryanzhi，zheiciyiqingchixudeshijian，yuanbidajiazuichudeyuqijiudeduo。

疫情导致全球贸易低迷。即便没有疫情，全球贸易也处在下行趋势之中，贸易增速低于GDP增速，而疫情使得全球经济停摆。jiujinqishujueryan，5yuefenzhongguowaimaochukouweifuzengzhang，deguochukoudafuduxiahua，biaomingquanqiujingjicunzaishuaituifengxian。2019nianquanqiujingjizengsupubianxiaxing，wulunshioumeihaishizhongguo、yindu，quanqiumeiyouliangdian。quanqiujingjijiegouxingwentizhangqidebudaoyouxiaojiejue，shuaituiqushiyixian，yiqingzhishijiasuleshuaitui。

yingduiyiqingjiqizaochengdeyingxiang，geguokecaiqudeshouduanhenyouxian，biru，ouzhou、meiguo、ribendoutongguojiangdililvshuiping、caiquwuxianlianghuakuansongdehuobizhengce。oumengheribendelilvbenlaijiushifude，meilianchujingguoliangcidiaozhenglilv，shidelianbangjijinlilvbianweilinglilv。zheiyangdaguimojiangdililvshuiping，zailishishangjuewujinyoude。jinnianmeiguodecaizhengchizilvgujihuidadao15%yishang，keyuerzhanhouxiangtibinglun。jiangxi、wuxianliangshifangliudongxinglihaogushi，danshi，duizhengtijingjidehuifusuonengqidaodezuoyongfeichangyouxian。

以美国为例，二战之后美国的贫富差距不断扩大，现已处于极度分化状态。最近由美国黑人事件导火，全国各地爆发示威游行，有些地方甚至出现打砸抢情况。这些社会现象的背后是经济分化，尤其是贫富极度分化、居民财富收入分化，比如，1%的人拥有50%的财富，必然会导致社会不平衡。可以看到，美国历史上发生的每一次暴乱，都与低利率相关，利率在不断下行或者处于历史低位时爆发暴动。经济下行触发利率下调，而失业率的上升，使得失业群体和低收入阶层生活陷入窘境，心态失衡，容易产生对社会的反抗情绪。全球经济有可能步入衰退，疫情只是改变了衰退的斜率，使得原本较为平缓的斜率变得陡峭，而各国政府采取的政策措施，只能让斜率放得平缓些，但无法改变全球经济的衰退趋势。

erzhanjieshuzhijin，yijingguole75nian，zaiciqijianquanqiujingjidedaolefeichangxunmengdefazhan。meiguozuoweiquanqiujingjizuizhongyaodefadongji，yizhiyinlingzhequanqiujingjidezengzhang，ciwai，ribenhezhongguoyexianhouqidaozhongyaozuoyong。rujin，zhongguojingjizengsufanghuan，neime，xiayigejianghuishishei？yourenbaxiwangjituozaiyindushenshang，raner，yindudejingjitiliangzhiyouzhongguode1/5，jingjizengsubizhongguohaiyaodi。zongeryanzhi，zaiquanqiujingjimeiyouredian、jiegouxingwentiriyiyanzhongdeqingkuangxia，zheizhongshuaituikongpahaishinanyibimian。

zhanwangweilai，quanqiujingjikenenghuijinrudizengzhang、gaozhendangtaishi，shehuizhengzhidebuwending、diyuanzhengzhichongtudengkenenghuichengweichangtai。jiuzhongguoeryan，yemianlinzheniquanqiuhuadeyali。

二、经济减速，结构分化渐成趋势

guoqushinian，womenjingjizengsumubiaomeiniandouzaiwangxiadiao。jinnian，youyuyiqingdailaidebuquedingxing，meiyouzaishegdpzengzhangmubiao。danshi，wentizaiyulazhangshijianlaikan，guoqu10niangdpzengsumubiaoweishenmebuduanxiadiaoni？yinweiwoguodejingjitiliangyuelaiyueda，jingjijiegouxingwentiyexianxianchulai，zengliangdebufenduicunliangdeyingxiangyuelaiyuexiao，zheijiushiwosuojiangdezhongguocunliangjingjidetezheng。zengliangjingjidetezhengshigexinggeyexinxinxiangrong，daxingqiye、xiaoqiyedouyouyinglikongjian，ercunliangjingjidetezhengshicixiaobizhang。suoyi，cunliangjingjiyuzengliangjingjiyouxianzhuqubie，cunliangjingjigengduodeshichuxianyizhongfenhua，zheizhongfenhuazhuyaobiaoxianzaiyixiasigefangmian：

第一个分化：人口和区域经济的分化。dangzhongguojingjifazhanburujiansujieduan，tongshimianduidewentishirenkoudelaolinghua。zhongguojingjizengsuweishenmehuixiajiang，qishiyouhenduoyuanyin，biru，zheiyeshiyigeshuxueguilv，dangfenmuyuelaiyuedashi，fenziduifenmudeyingxiangjiuxiaole，zengsujiufanghuanle，haiyourenkoulaolinghualvbuduanshangsheng，dengdeng。cunliangjingjizengsufanghuandebeijingzhixia，bushisuoyoudifangdouyoutouzijihuihejiuyejihui，chengxianchudeshifenhuadebujunheng。

zongtilaikan，renkouxiangjingjifada、huoliqiangdediquliudong。2019nian，zhongguorenkouliudongzuiyinrenzhumudeshi，zhejiangrenkoujingliuruliangchaoguoguangdong、chengweizhongguorenkouliuruzuiduodeshengfen。zhejiangjingjitiliangyuepaizaiquanguodiwuwei，guangdongpaidiyiwei，guangdongderenkoujishujihushizhejiangdeliangbei，neime，weishenmezhejiangderenkouliuruliangneimedani？xianran，zhejiangdejingjiliangdiangengduo，touzijihuigengduo，xinxingchanyefazhangengkuai。suoyi，congzhengtishangkan，renkouwangzhejiangliudong，wangzhangjiangsanjiaozhouliudong。lingwai，jiu2019zhuyaochengshichangzhurenkouzenglianglaikan，hangzhoudiyi，shenzhendier，jirenkoudiergeliuxiangshizhujiangsanjiaozhou。naxiedifangderenkouliuchuleni？zongtilaishuo，dongbei、xibei、huabeidengdiderenkoujingliuchu。suoyishuo，xianjinjingjifazhancixiaobizhangdetedianhaishihenmingxiande，jianglaijingjifazhandezhongxinyehuisuizhecunliangjingjixiadefenhuayuelaiyuemingxian。

yucixiangguande，shichengzhenhualvdeshangshengsuduzaixiajiang。cong2011nianqi，zhongguochengzhenhuasudumingxianfanghuan，guoquchengzhenhualvmeiniantigao1.4gebaifendian，2019nianyijiangdao1.06gebaifendian。jinhoujinian，zheigeshujuhaihuiyizhixiajiang，yinweinongmingongjinchengdeshuliangzhujianjianshao。youyurenkoulaolinghuaheliudongrenkoushuliangdejianshao，cong2012nianzhijinbaniandeshijianli，zhongguolaodongnianlingrenkoushuliangjingjianshaole2800duowanren。guci，yebuyaoduichengzhenhuajiyuguogaoqiwang。yucixiangduiyingde，shidachengshihua，gengduoderenkouwangdachengshiliudong，jiwangshenghuichengshi、jingjifadaderemenchengshiliudong。zhongguoxianzaichengzhenhualvsudufanghuan，danshidachengshihuadejinchengfangxingweiai，zheiyeshiherenkoufenhua、diqufenhuaxiangguande。

第二个分化：居民收入的分化。zheizhongfenhuaduixiaofeibuli，bingjijingjijiegoudediaozhengdailaiyidingnandu。congqushishanglaijiang，chengxiangjumindeshouruchajuzaisuoxiao，zheishiyigehaoxianxiang；lingyigefangmian，gaoshourujiecengyuzhongdishourujiecengdeshouruchajuhaizaikuoda。jugelizi， 2016- 2019nian，zhongguogaoshouruzudeshouruzengzhang29%，zhongdengshouruzudeshouruzengzhang19%，shouruchajurengzaibuduankuoda。zaixiaofeilingyu，biaoxianweishechipinxiaofeifeichanghuobao，danzhenggeshehuilingshoupindexiaofeizengsuzhunianxiajiang。zhangqilaijiang，zheizhongqingkuanghuidailaijingjidongnengdexiajiang，yinweizhongguojingjiyiburuxiaofeizhudaojieduan，erxiaofeidezhutishizhongdishourujieceng，dangxiaofeizhulishouruzengsufanghuan，duixiaofeiyehuidailaixiangyingdefumianyingxiang。liru，zhongguoqichezhengtixiaoliangzaixiajiang，danhaohuachedexiaoliangbaochizhengzengzhang。zaikanshechipinxiaofei，3-4yuefen，oumeishechipinxiajiangle20-30%，zhongguoqueshangshengle30-50%，zheiyeshishourufenhuadailaidexiaofeimouzhongchengdushangdeniuqu。

第三个分化：产业分化。新兴产业发展迅猛，传统产业增速放缓。2019nian，xinxichuanshu、ruanjianhexinxijishufuwuyezengjiazhi32690yiyuan，zengzhang18.7%，duibifangdichande3%、jianzhuyede5.6%hejinrongyede7.2%，xinjingjiduigdpzengzhangdezhichengzuoyongmingxian。zheiyedailaileyixiejiegouxingwenti，ruchuantongchanyejingjizengsuxiajiang，daozhichuantongchanyecongyerenyuanjiuyeyali，suiranxinxingchanyeyekeyijiejuejiuye，danxinxingchanyesuojiejuedejiuyerenshugenchuantongchanyexiaxingsuodailaideshiyerenshuxiangbishibuduichengde。juyigejiandandelizi，ruo gdpshangsheng1gebaifendian，jiuyekezengjia200duowanren，danshigdpxiaxing1gebaifendian，shiyehuizengjia300duowanren，shiyedezhuyaoshichuantongchanye，xinzengjiuyewangwangshixinxingchanye，zheishichanyefenhuaguochengzhizhongmianlindewenti。

第四个分化：企业的分化。产业向头部集中，头部企业市场份额不断提升。biru，jiadianxingyesandajutoushidaimingxianshangsheng，jigeli、meidehehaier，fangdichanlingyuyeshiruci。toubuqiyeshichangfenebuduantisheng，duitigaoqiyexiaolvshiyouhaochude，danyedailaileyixiewenti，ruyouyushichangfenewangtoubujizhong，zengjialezhongxiaoweiqiyedejingyingyali，erzhongxiaoweiqiyeduiyudaidongjiuyedezuoyongshifeichangmingxiande。

总体来讲，分化是存量经济下的特征，分化导致了优胜劣汰，分化也提升了整个社会资源配置效率，副作用是对就业产生一定压力。

zaixifangshehui，fenhuazaojiufashengle。biru，jiuzibenshichanglaikan，womentongjilemeiguocidaiweijizhihouguoqu11niangushidebiaoxian，meiguogushiyechuxianlefenhua。buyaokandaomuqiannasidakegushichuanglexingao，jiurenweisuoyougupiaodouyoutouzijihui，neijiucuole，gushishang“erbaxianxiang”feichangmingxian，shenzhishi“yijiuxianxiang”。yinasidakeweili，nasidakeyiyou4000duojiashangshigongsituishi，xianshengyu2800jiashangshigongsi。zhei2800jiashangshigongsiguoqu11niandangzhong，zhangfuzhongweishuwei33%，feichangzhidi。danshi，zhangfuzuidadeqian10%gupiao，yejiushi280jiashangshigongsidepingjunzhangfu，dadaole19.6bei，suozhanshizhiweinasidakezongshizhide50%，shidianxingde“erbaxianxiang”。gujizhongguogushideweilaiyeruci，shangzhangdeshishaoshu，qiehuiyinshizhida、quanzhongda，duizhishudedaidongzuoyongjiufeichangmingxian。guzhizhangdexiren，bingbudengyusuoyougupiaodouzhang，xiangdangyidabufendegupiaobuzhangshenzhihaixiadie。

三、存量经济下，中国将突出改革主线

第三部分，讲一讲我们该如何应对。在前面，我讲了存量经济下的分化有利有弊，我们采取的应对措施是财政政策和货币政策。但是，无论是财政政策，还是货币政策，都只是治标，还是要通过改革来解决深层次问题，解决结构性问题。jinnianzhengfugongzuobaogaoduicaizhengzhengcefangmianhaishifeichangwenjiande，zaitourushangmianbidajiayuqihuilvediyidian，danyouyigexintezhengshiyaobaqianyongzaidaorenshang，yuyiwangcaizhengzhengceyingduijingjixiaxingdebiaoxianyoufeichangmingxiandequbie。dajiasuoqiwangdejijianhuozhexinjijianmeiyoudaguimotouru，ershibagengduodeqianyongzaiminshengshang，worenweizheigefangxiangshiduide。womendecaizhengshixishuizhangliu，buxiangmeiguoxianzaisuocaiqudecuoshi，shiyongfeichangjiandancubaodefangshilaiyingduiyiqing、yingduiyiqingdaozhidejingjiwenti、yingduimeiguominzhongdebumanqingxu，shidemeiguozhaiwushuipingdadaoqiansuoweiyoudegaodu，duiweilaichanshenglehendayali，yejiushibakunnanyanhoule，worenweizheibushiyigemingzhixuanze，ershiyizhongduanqixingwei。

对中国来讲，财政政策相对而言是比较节制的，货币政策空间会更大。youqixianzaijingjixiaxing，zhongmeizhijianlichayouzaikuoda，jijiangzhun、jiangxiliuxiabijiaodadekongjian。suoyi，cicizhengfugongzuobaogaotidaoleliangge“zhida”，qizhongzhiyishihuobihexinzengxindaizhidazhongxiaoweiqiye，jiangdizhongjianhuanjieganrao，fangzhijianguantaoli，zheixiezhengceshijishanggengbiaoxiankuanxinyong、wenhuobi。dancongzhangqilaijiang，quanqiujingjishuaitui，zhongguojingjicunzaixiaxingyali，zhongguojiangxidekongjianhaishibijiaodade。wuluncaizhengzhengcehaishihuobizhengce，gengjiazhuzhongxiaolvtisheng，jiangqianyongdaoheshidedifang，shiyonggengjiajingzhun，zheishiyinggaiyaozhuyidaode。

2019年政府工作报告中，30次提到“就业”； 2020年，则39次提到“就业”，提及频率增长了30%。显然，在经济增长下行过程中，就业压力是比较大的，怎么去应对就业？一方面要加大复工复产力度，另外一方面创造灵活就业。meiguoshijiandancubaojiyushiyerenkouguoduobutie，zheizhongbutiebaokuoyinchao。meiguoyongyouzhubishui，keyixiangquanshijiezhengshouzhubishui，yincipinmingyinfameichao，xiangdangbufuzeren。yumeiguoxiangbi，zhongguoshiduoguanqixia，zhaoshangyinzi、fugongfuchan、gaishanyingshanghuanjing，lingwai，tongguogaigetuijinjiejueyixiejiegouxingwenti，ruqianmianjiangdaode“sigefenhua”xianxiangdeng。

对于结构化问题如何应对？首先，中国经济跟美国和欧盟经济一样，存在三大部门，政府部门、企业部门和居民部门，要将这三大部门之间的关系协调好，结构合理。此次总理报告中也体现出来，国企给民企让利，银行（金融）给实体让利，中央给地方让利，富人给穷人让利，逐步缩小高收入家庭与中低收入家庭差距。所有的改革，包括国有企业改革、行政体制改革，都是围绕着三大部门之间的关系合理来展开的，同时三大部门内部结构也更加合理，要缩小差距、提高效率、增强活力。我们与欧盟、美国、日本等一些主要经济体的不同之处在于：我们强调了改革，希望通过改革来带动经济结构合理，带动经济增长。

qianbujiu，woguotuichuleshenhuatudi、laodongli、zibendengshichanghuapeizhigaige，jiakuaipeiyujishuheshujuyaosushichang，tongshiyeyaojiakuaiyaosushichanghuadegaige，yaojianquanyaosushichangdejiaoyujizhi。yucixiangguan，zibenshichanggaigeliduyezaizhubujiada，biru，kechuangbanzhucezhishidiantuiguangdaochuangyebanzhucezhishidian，weilaisuoyoubankuaidezhucezhigaige，xinde《zhengquanfa》yedeyishishi。zheicizhengfugongzuobaogaoxiugaigaozhong，duizibenshichanggaigezengjialefazhanduocengcizibenshichang，zheilizhuyaoshibaokuoxinsanban，fenjingxuanceng、chuangxincengdengdeng。tongguoguifanshichang，shidezhijierongzibilijinyibutigao，tongshiyaoyangetuishizhidu，jiadayoushenglietailidu，duizibenshichangzuoqiangzuodadoudailaiyoulijihui。

四，分化趋势下的资产配置思路

首先，看好避险资产——黄金。zaiguoqu50niandangzhong，huangjindezhangfulingxianyuqitazichan，weishenmehuilingxian？zhuyaohaishiyinweiquanqiuhuobichaofa，youqishimeiyuanchaofa。1971nianbuleidunsenlintixijieti，shidemeiyuangenhuangjintuogou，congcizhihouhuangjinzhangfumingxianjiada。guoqude50nianzhong，meiyuandehanjinliangjihusuoshuile97%，erqitaxinxingzhibiduimeiyuandadoubianzhi90%yishang，zaihuangjinmianqiangengshijihuyiwenbuzhi。huangjinbenshenshitianrandehuobi，huangjinyouliangdagongneng，yigeshibixian，yingduijingjishuaitui，yingduitouzizhefengxianpianhaoxiajiang；lingwaijiushitianshengdehuobi，juyoutouzigongneng，huobifanlanzhihou，huangjinsuiranshangzhang，danshangzhangfuduyeyuanyuanxiaoyuhuobichaofafudu。

第二类，谈一下大家普遍关注的房地产。货币政策是否会不断宽松？那么，应对货币贬值，是不是应该配置房地产？实际上，中国已经出现四大分化，房价与人口流向、货币流向相关，无论房地产还是股市，更多表现为结构性机会。过去十几年，政策覆盖了所有领域、所有区域，但不可能每个区域都会发展得非常好，而是呈现分化态势。过去提的较多的是大范围振兴，比如东北振兴、西部大开发、中部崛起，现在更加强调一体化，比如京津冀一体化、长三角一体化、粤港澳大湾区、发展长江经济带等，这些是政策上的平衡，但是现实是不平衡的。既然现实不平衡，我们就要追求投资的精准。比如，长三角中浙江发展最快，浙江人口最多，我们更加要关注杭州湾；珠三角整体发展很快，但发展最快的地方是粤港澳湾区，广东省整体发展不平衡，深圳、广州、佛山、珠海、东莞等人口增加较块，其他城市负增长。如果配置房地产，应配置未来5到10年人口净流入或资金净流入的地方，或者产业发展非常迅猛的地方。我们现在投资应该从面找到线，将来由线找到点，即哪些点是值得投资的，yinweifenhuayuelaiyueda，xiangmeiguocunzaitiexiudidai，jingjiwangredianchengshijizhongbijiaomingxian，guoqudefanrongbingbudaibiaojianglaiyizhihuifanrong，meiguodeqichechengditelvjiuchuxianmingxianshuaitui，womenjinrudaocunliangjingjishidai、fenhuashidai，yidingyaojingzhuntouzi。

第三个资产配置，我看好利率债。suiranzuijinzheiduanshijian，lilvzhaixiadiao，zhuyaoyouyudajiaduikuanxinyongdeyuqi，renweililvjiangbuleduoshao。worenwei，lilvhaihuijiang，yinweijingjizaiwangxiazou，quanqiujingjidashuaituijumianmeiyoufashenggenbenbianhua。suoyi，lilvzhaihaishizhidequpeizhi，womenyaokandegengjiazhangyuan。

对于股票市场来讲，是结构性机会，bukenengyouquanmianpuzhangdedaniushi，yeshicunzaizhefenhua。agudetuishilvshuipingfeichangdi，zhiyoumeiguode1/10，jianglaihuiyouyipigupiaotuishi，duitouzilaijiangfengxianyezaijiada；lingyifangmian，yaokanhaoxingye，qianmianjiangdaoxingyefenhua，kejiadaxinxingxingyetouzilidu。

另外，企业也在分化，要抓住头部企业的投资机会，简单来说就是抓大放小。guoqu，womenkanhaoxiaoshizhigupiao，yinweixiaoshizhigupiaoyouqiaoziyuan，zaizhucezhihou，tuishilvyaoshangsheng，xiaoshizhikenengyuelaiyuebuzhiqianle，zheijiushiweishenmeqiangdiaozhuadafangxiao，dangranyeyouxiaodehaoqiye，zongtilaijiang，touziyaogenoumeishichangyuelaiyuejiegui，dashizhigupiaoyougengduotouzijihui。

zhengtilaijiang，mianduiyiqingyousandapeizhisilu，diyidasilushichanyefazhanqushi，dierdasilushizhengcedaoxiang，yaoguanzhuzhengcezaizhuzhangshenme、tichangshenme、zhichishenme，disandasiluyaozhuazhuqiyefenhuajihui，qiyehuiyuelaiyueduodejizhongdaotoubu。fenhuadeshidai，gaigezaitongbutuijin，jiegouzaizhuanxing，zichanpeizhiyeyaoshunyingzheiyangdequshi。

yishangshiwodebaogao，xiexiedajia！

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