2020nian6yue23ri，youshanghaibaoyejituanshujiemianxinwenzhuban、fudandaxuefanhaiguojijinrongxueyuandujiaxueshuzhichi、bosidengzhanlvehezuode【jiemianzibenluntan】yuxianshangjuban。zhongxinjiantouzhengquanfangdichanjianjianzhuxingyeshouxifenxishizhujingfabiaozhuzhiyanjiang《doushiquanshidaidefangdichanxingyezhan》，jiudoushiquanfazhanguilv、fangdichanshichangzouxiangfenxiangguandian。

tazhichu，dangqianjingjinji、zhangsanjiao、zhusanjiao、zhangjiangzhongyouhechengyuwudachengshiqunbaolanlezhuyaodejingjiherenkouziyuan，zheixiequyuweilaixifurenkouhechanyedenenglihuigengqiang。suizherenkouyuchanyedejiju，yixiegaonengjidoushiquanyijingxingchengwangzhuanghuadechengzhentixi，weilaixingchengdoushilianmianqudejihuiyebijiaoda，youzhuyudailaigenghaodechanyejijuyoushiyujiazhilianfengong。

guoqushinian，doushiquanjiwaiyiquyujibenzhanjuquanguozhuzhaishichangdebanbijiangshan。xiayigeshinian，bansuijijuxiaoyingdezengqiang，guoneidoushiquandechanyeyujingjiqianlijiangjinyibushifang，hexindoushidewaiyishichangyejiangyinglaijudadezengzhangkongjian。

以下为竺劲在【界面资本论坛】上演讲实录：

dajiahao，woshizhongxinjiantouzhengquanfangdichanjianjianzhuxingyeshouxifenxishizhujing，jintianhenrongxingshoudaojiemianxinwenyaoqinglaidaojiemianzibenluntan，jiexialaiyudajiafenxiangyixiaguanyudoushiquanshidaifangdichanxingyedezhanwang。

jintianfenxiangfenweisigebufen，diyi，chengshihuafazhanguilvjianshu；dier，meiguoheribendechengshihuajingyannengduizhongguoweilaidoushiquanhua、chengshiqunfazhandejiejianyiyi；disan，zhongguochengshiqunyudoushiquandejueqi；disi，zhongguodoushiquanfangdichanshichangzhanwang。zhongguochengshihuayijingjinrudierjieduan，congquanqiulaikan，chengshihuajihushimeigegongyeguojiabixujinglideyigejieduan，zaizheiyangyigexindechengshihuafazhanjieduan，womenzhongguoweilaihuizenyangfazhan？

城市化发展规律

chengshihuadefazhanyouzijideyanjinguilv，jiuxiangyigeshengwudefazhan、yigerendechengzhangyiyang。xianzailaikan，quanqiuchengshihuazuifadadequyu，haishiyimeiguoweishoudefadaguojia。chengshihuashijishangjinglilefeichangzhangdeshijian，zaixingtaishangmiancongdaxinghuabianweidoushiquanhua，zuihouxingchengdoushilianmianqu，xueshushangyibanbachengshihuafazhandingweidiyijieduan、dierjieduan、chengshujieduan。

diyijieduan，chengshihualvcong30%-50%，wangwangshikuaisuchengshihuaguocheng，tixianweichengshiyuelaiyueda，chengshixifunongcunrenkou，yejiushi1.0——chengshidaxinghua。congquanqiuqushilaikan，cong1900niankaishi，dachengshiderenkouconglaimeiyouchuxianguoxiajiang，chufeiyuzhanluan、ziranzaihaidengyixieouranxingyinsu。dierjieduan，chengshihualvdao50%-70%，jinru2.0——doushiquanhuajieduan，yejiushishuochengshibumanzuyubenshenxifuwailaiderenkou，chengshineibuchuxianyidingdenichengshihua，bingdaidongzhoubianxiaochengshifazhan。disanjieduan，chengshihualvdao70%yishang，chengshijibenshangdingxing，nongcunderenkoujibenyizhuanyidaochengshizhong，jinru3.0——doushilianmianqu。youyuzhongguofazhanbutaipingheng，zhangsanjiaoquyuqishiyijingmanmanxingchengdoushilianmianqu，xiangmeiguozaidonghaianhexihaiandouyoubijiaomingxiandechengshilianmianqu。chengshilianmianqushichengshihuadisangejieduan，daibiaolemuqianrenleizuigaodechengshihuafazhanjieduan，tixianweiyixiedaxingchengshihuxianglianjieqilai，huozheshuoyuanlaidoushiquanzhongyouxiexiaochengshifazhanweidachengshi，congershidelianmianqudangzhongyouduogechengshicunzai。

muqianzhongguozhuyaohaishizai2.0jieduan，qunianniandizhongguochengshihualvzai60%zuoyou，chuyu50%-70%qujian，yejiushidoushiquanhuajieduan。dajiayibanbabeijing、shanghai、shenzhenzuoweihexindoushiquan，hexinchengshijibenshangfangjiazai4wankuaiqianyishang，zhoubianyixiechengshifangjiazai1wandao2wanzhijian，jibenshangyijingxingchengledoushiquanhexinhewaiweiziranjiagexiangduihelidebili，yeshuomingzheixiedoushiquanshibijiaoyouhuolide。

womenkeyikandaosihufangjiazhigenhexindoushiquandangzhongjuhexinchengshidejulishiyouguande，julihexindoushiquanhexinchengshiyuejin，wangwangfangjiayuegao，ruguotongshirenjungdpbijiaogao，jubeizishenchanyefazhannengli，xiangyingdefangjiayehuigenggao，suoyikeyikandao，zaishanghaidoushiquannei，litaxiangduibijiaojinde，xiangkunshan、taicang、jiashanjiagehuigaoyixie，litaxiangduiyuanyixiedekunshan，yunanjingjiagechabuduo。yihangzhouhesuzhouweili，zishenyouqudongjingjinengli，yeshibijiaozhongyaodechengshi，fangjiayehuixiangyinggaoyixie。yinci，juedingfangjiadeyinsuyifangmianshirenjungdp，yifangmianshilidoushiquanhexinchengshidejuli，gengduoyeyudangdichanyefazhanyouguan。conghangzhoudoushiquanyenengkandaoyigebijiaomingxiandexianxiang，jifangjiazhihejuliyouguan，lihangzhouyuejinjiageyuegui，yuhangzhouxiangbi，zheixiechengshichanyejiegouxiangduidanyi，duihangzhouyijishanghaideyilaidubijiaogao。

beijingyushanghaishibijiaoleiside，beijingzhoubianchengshiyeshiyisangeyaosuqudongweizhu，danhaishiyijuliqudong、gdpqudongweizhu。jingjinjidefazhanshuipingdiyushanghaidoushiquandefazhanshuiping，shanghaidoushiquanxiangduieryanxingchengleduogehexin，jingjinjihexindoushiquanleisiyuhangzhoudoushiquan，buleisiyushanghaidedoushiquan。

guangshenshiyishenzhenheguangzhouzuoweizhuyaoqudonghexinchengshi，fangjiafenbugengweifengfu，heshanghaidoushiquanbijiaojiejin，dangranyuegangaodawanqu、xianggang、aomentebiexingzhengqudejingjifazhanchengdubijiaogao，tongshizhuhai、shenzhenshoudaoaomenhexianggangfushe，tamendefangjiabianhuayoubuyiyangdetezheng，suoyizhuhaifangjiajiejinyuguangzhoufangjia，zhuyaoshishoudaoaomen，yijigangzhuaodaqiaoliantongdeyingxiang，yuegangaodawanqudefangjiafenbuyougenjingjinjiheshanghaishibuyiyangde。

suoyi，doushiquanneichengshifangjiashiyousangequdongsulaijuedingde，diyi，juhexinchengshidejuli，dier，dangdirenjungdpshuiping，disandangdichanyejiegouhuozhejiaochanyefazhanchengshudu，zheisangeyinsujuedingledoushiquanneifangjiadefenbu

kenengyinweiwoshifangdichanfenxishi，suoyixiguanyuyongfangjialaibiaoshihuozhechanshuduichengshiderenshi，jinguanfangjiazhishiyigelengbingbingdeshuzi，danzaiyidingchengdushang，yefanyingchulechengshifazhanshuipingheweilaifazhankongjian。

美国与日本的城市化经验

dierbufen，meiguoheribenshixianzailaikan，yigeshiquanqiu，yigeshidongyadiquzuifadadejingjiquyu，tamenyejinglilegenzhongguoleisidecongdichengshihuajieduandaogaochengshihuajieduan。meiguodechengshihuafazhan，cong1840niandagaishi10%zuoyoudechengzhenhualv，dao1880nian30%zuoyouchengshihualv。yejiushishuodiyigejieduan1880niandao1920nian，dierjieduan1920niandao1960nian，1960niandadao70%，1960nianzhijinshisuoweichengshudechengshihuajieduan。meigejieduandefazhanqishishihenyoutesede，genzhongguoyouyidingdeleisixing。shouxianzaichengshihuaqidongjieduan，meiguodegongyehuashuipingbijiaodi，chengshigongnengduoyishangyemaoyiweizhu，runiuyuedeng，dangshi1840niandao1880nianyechuxianlefeichangzhongyaodenanbeizhanzheng，daozhijingjizhongxinzhenghe，dailailechengshidafazhan；daolediyijieduan——1880niandao1920nian，zhenghaoshinanbeizhanzhengyihouxiaohuadejieduan，quanqiugongyehuadouchuxianlejiasu，meiguoliyonglegongyehuajiasuqiji，chengshiyededaolehenhaodefazhan，shizhizaoyezhudaodejieduan，yuzhongguojiaruwtoyihouyougengdadezhizaoyefazhanjihuiyouyixieleisi；1920niandao1960nian，meiguojinrulechengshihuadatuijinshidai，yejiushishuo，chengshikaishiyanjiaotongxianfushe，youdaliangdedoushiquan、chengshiqunfazhan。1960nianyihou，meiguojinruchengshudejieduan。suoyi，meiguodechengzhentixicunzaimingxiandeyanbianqushi，congzuizaodedanhedachengshitixi，manmanbianchengquyuchengzhentixi，zaidaodadoushiquhuadechengzhenjiegoutixi，zuizhongdaoxianzaidelianmianqujiegoutixi，zheixiejieduanshijishangshigenjingjihechengshihuafazhanjieduanxixixiangguan。womenkeyikandao，dangqianlaikan，dachengshilianmianquchengzhenjiegoutixishigengweifengfu、youjidetixi，dachengshidelianmianqu，shidangqianmeiguochengshihuadezhuyaoxingtai，erzhongguomuqianhaimeiyoudadao。

congyucelaikan，dao2050nianmeiguo70%yishangderenkou、jingjizengzhangdouzhihuijizhongzai10gedachengshilianmianqu，baokuodongbeibuzhuyaoshiniuyueweidaibiao，zhongxibuzhuyaoyizhijiageweidaibiao，jiazhounanbuzhuyaoshiluoshanji。meiguodongbeihaiandefazhanshibijiaoyouyiside，dongbeiquyejiushiniuyue、feicheng、huashengdun，zheigequyushijishangshimeiguozuizaodefayuandidangshiwuyuehuahaoyeshizaizheigedifanglizude，1845nianyiqianzhuyaoshigangkouchengshi，shizhiminxingzhandiandefazhanmoshi，bansuizhejingjidefazhan，congmaoyizhuanxiangzhizaoye，suoyizhenggejingjixingtailiyonglejiaotongshuniudaozhihexinchengshiyougengdafazhan，meiguodedongbeidiqudechengshiwangluomanmanxingcheng，tongshiyoudaliangdeyunhehetielukaiban，daozhizhenggechengshifazhanjiaohao。1945nianyihoulvxianxingchenglechengshilianmianqu，zhuyaoyuanyinhaishizaiyusirenxiaojiaochedezengzhang、gaosugongludejianshe，yijimeiguoguihuadangzhongfangrenchengshimanyandeng。

zheizhongmoshidefazhanyebansuizhebuduandechengshihua、hexinhuazhuanxiangnichengshihuadeguocheng，zheiyeshimeiguobinxifaniyadaxuebaogaozhongguanyujiaoquhua、zhongxinhua、chengshihudongdeneirong。cong60niandaikaishiyouyigehudongguocheng，congzhongxinhuadaojiaoquhuazaidaozhongxinhua，shibuduanfuxingdeguocheng，yuxianzaishanghaigaochengshigengxinshileiside，yeshichixuxingdeguocheng，dailailechengshihexinqubuduanzhongxinsuzao，yijijiaoquhezhoubianchengshidexinfazhan。

womenzailaikanyixiaribendeqingkuang，genmeiguoleisi。chengshihuajibenfensangejieduan，ribendedisangejieduanzai1970nianyihou，yejiushizairibenchuxianshiyouweijiyiqian，ribendangshihaizaizuoliedaogaizaojihua，dangshishiribenjingjizaoyuyidingpingjing，hennantongguoyuanyoudemoshi，yejiushidiyi、dierjieduandequdongmoshi，jichusheshijianshehefangdichantouziladongjingjizengzhang，chengshihualvdao60%yihou，shijishangjiushiyaojinrugaozhiliangfazhanjieduan，xuyaogengduodefuwuye、gaoxinjishulaituidongjingjifazhan，zhongguomuqianzaidierjieduan，zhongguozhuanxingxiangyingeryanshirenzhongdaoyuan。ribenzai1970nianhou，jinruchengshujieduan，zhongxinhewaiweihudong，chuxianlianmianququshixiangduibijiaomingxianyixie。danshiwomenbixurenshidao，ribengenmeiguohendadechayi，ribenshijishangcongmianjishangxiangdangyuzhongguoyunnansheng，suoyitazhenggeguojiachengshifazhan，shijishangzhinengkanchengshiyigeshengneijigechengshidefazhan，suoyiribendanjihuaxianxiangbijiaomingxian。meiguoshidiyubijiaoliaokuodedaluxingguojia，erribenshiyigedaoguo，mianjibijiaoxiao，erzhanhou，ribenrenkouyidonghefenbudejibentezhengshirenkouxiangtaipingyangyanandedongjing、daban、mingguwusandagongyezhongxinchengshiyidong，youcixingchenglesandadoushiquan。70niandaizhongyekaishi，dabanquanhemingguwuquankaishichuxianjingliuchu，dongjingquanzebaochichixujingliuru。“dongjing—daban—mingguwu”sanjijizhongjiegoukaishibengkui。yejiushishuo，ribenzaichengshihuachengshuyihou，jiuchuxianlerenkoudanjihuaxiangdongjingqianyidexianxiang，weishenmeyouzheigexianxiangni？zhuyaoyuanyinzaiyuzhenggechanyejiegouzhongdabanhemingguwumeiyougenshang，zailiedaogaizaojihuahou，jinguandajiazaixunzhaoxindeyixiedifang，danshicongchanyejiqundejingjichengdulaikan，dongjingdijiaxiangduieryanzuigao，dandabanhemingguwubudi，dongjingchanyejiqunchanyegenghao，gengduoqiyedaodongjingyingye，yeyougengduorenkouyongrudongjing，zheishidaozhi1970niandaiyihou，ribenchengshihuafazhanqushibijiaodadebianhua。zheizaizhongguoyouxieshengfenkeyikandao，danjihuadexianxiangxiangyingeryanshibijiaomingxiande，birushuohenanzhengzhou、guizhouguiyang，shenzhibaokuoanhuihefei，douchuxianledanjihuafeichangmingxiandexianxiang。danjihuamingxiandexianxiang，qishishiyouyuchanyefazhan、jijudailaide，chanyeruheluodigendangdidezhengfuguanxibijiaoda，gendangdichanyejichuyeyouguanxi，kenenggengduoyilaiyuzhengce，dangranyeyouyixieouranxing。danjihuadefashengshidiergejieduandaodisangejieduandouhuifashengdexianxiang，zhongguomuqianhuibansuizhechengshihuadebuduantuijin，zaichengshihualv70%yihou，shijishangjiuhuichuxianchengshilianmianqu，tongshi，bufenquyuyehuichuxiandanjihuaxianxiang，zheiliangzhongxianxianghuibingcun，suoyidajiazaijiuye、zhiyefangmian，douyaokaolvmeigeshengfenchengshifazhan、jiegoufazhandequbie，congerkeyihenhaodejiejiandaocongriben、meiguojingyan。

dongjingweishenmechaoyueledabanhemingguwu？chengshizhuanxingshihenzhongyaodeyinsu，jieguoshishouruchayi，gengduorenxiwangdaodongjingqugongzuo，dongjingdexuexiaoyeshizhenggeribenzuiduo、zuihaode，daozhixuexiaojiaoyuziyuanhechanyeziyuandejiju，daozhiledanjihuaxianxiangdecunzai。

zaidongjingquannei，benshenyefashengyixiebianhua，zheigekenengduiyushenghuozaishanghai、beijing、shenzhen、guangzhoudengyixianchengshidejuminlaishuoyoubijiaohaodejiejianyiyi，zheixiechengshiwangwangyehuichuxianjiaoquhua，bansuigonggongjiaotongdefazhan，zhongxinqufangjiabuduanpansheng。ribenzai1970niandaichengshihualvdadao70%yishang，jibenshangyijingwanchenglejiaoquhuaguocheng，1990niandaichuxianzhongxinhuaqushi，zhuyaoyouyujingjishuailuo，daozhigengduorenyaoqushizhongxingongzuo。xianzaizhongguojingjiqingkuangyezaichaozhongxinchengshi、zhongxinquyujiju。dongjingzai2000nianyihouyouchuxianjiaoquhuaxianxiang，jiaoquhuahezhongxinhuajiuxianglangchaoyiyang，shibuduanjiaotihundongde，dailaihexinchengshidedafazhan，yejihexinchengshijiaoqudailaidafazhan，suoyihexinchengshijiazhihuibuduantisheng。

中国故事：城市群与都市圈的崛起

bansuizhedoushiquanzhongxindejizhong，ribendangshifangjiakongzhidefeichangbuhao，zhuyaoshihuobichengzhengceshiwudaozhifangjiapaomojiaoda，suoyizhenggedoushiquanfangjiashangshengbijiaokuai，neimezhongguomuqianshishenmezhuangtai？zhongguomuqianfangdichanyijingmeiyouzhouqi，xiangduieryanshidunhuadexianxiang，zheiyufangdichanfazhanbijiaochengshuyouguanxi，yeyuzhengfufangzhubuchaoyouguan。guoneiloushifenhuajiaju，yierxianchengshibiaoxianhaoyusansixianchengshi，genchengshihuafazhanqushiyizhi。zhongguojingjinji、zhangsanjiao、zhusanjiao、zhangjiangzhongyouhechengyuwudachengshiqunbaolanlezhuyaodejingjiherenkouziyuan，zheixiequyuweilaixifurenkouhechanyedenenglihuigengqiang，muqiankanwudachengshiqunrenkouzhanbi40%，gdpzhanbi54%，xinfangxiaoshouzhanbi48%，suoyizhenggedoushiquan，wudachengshiqun，yiranshifangdichan、jiuyedezhuzhanchang。ruguoandoushiquanlaijiang，31gedoushiquanyizhanquanguo3.9%deguotumianjichengzailejin30%derenkouguimo。suoyizheizhongjijuqishidailailezuigaodejingjixiaoying，gaonengjidedoushiquanyijingxingchengwangzhuanghuadechengzhentixi，cizhongxinrenkouyebijiaoduo，weilaixingchenglianmianqujihuibijiaoda，doushiquanneidechanyeyeyijinggouchenglehenhaodejiazhilianfenbu，duiyudoushiquanlaishuodailaigesiqizhidekenengxing，fazhanhoujingbijiaozu。

中国都市圈房地产市场展望

ruguoyidoushiquanzuoweihengliangdebiaozhun，shijishangwomenkeyikandao，zaiguoquyiduanshijianlimian，zhenggedoushiquanzhuzaishichangguimo，tadefazhanxiangduieryanshichengzhangbijiaokuaide，cong2008niandao2018nian，10nianshijiandangzhongdoushiquanwaiyichengshijiaqilaijibenshangzhanlebanbijiangshan，zhenggedoushiquanfazhanhaishibijiaohaode。

muqianlaikanfangdichanshichangherenkouliuxianghaishixiangzhongxinjiju，suoyidoushiquanneibuhexinchengshigengzhidedajiaqinlai，womenrenweiweilaishiniandoushiquandedafazhanjiangshizhudaozhongguochengshihuafazhandezhuyaoqudongyaosu，yeshizhudaozhongguofangdichanxingyefazhandeyaosu，suoyiwomenfeichangkanhaoweilaishiniandoushiquanfazhan，jianghuidaidongdoushijingjichanyexinyiluntengfei，chanshenggengduoxinjihui。

jintianwofenxiangdaozheili。xiexiedajia！