zuoweiguoneilingxiandeyuanchuangcaijingmeiti，shanghaibaoyejituan | jiemianxinwenyu2023nian12yue13rixingqisanzaishanghaizhongxindasha2loudayanhuiting3（pudongxinqulujiazuiyinchengzhonglu501hao）jubanle2023【jiemiancaijingshengdian】，shanghaijiaotongdaxueshanghaigaojijinrongxueyuanshijianjiaoshou、yuanmeilianchugaojijingjixuejiahujiefabiaozhutiyanjiang：quanqiuhua2.0——diyuanchongtuzhongsushijiejingjigeju。tebiemingxiebencishengdianzhanlvehezuohuobanmeisaidesi-benchi、xueshuzhichishanghaijiaotongdaxueshanghaigaojijinrongxueyuan。

以下为上海交通大学上海高级金融学院实践教授、原美联储高级经济学家胡捷主旨演讲实录：

hujie：dajiahao！hengaoxingyouzheigejihui，zaijiemiancaijingjiangtaishanggendajiafenxiangwozheiduanshijiandeguancha，timushi：quanqiuhua2.0——diyuanchongtuzhongsushijiejingjigeju。

quanqiujingjizaijinglizhejudazhuanxingguocheng，woyongyigeshijianbiaozhizhuanxing，dajiazhidaozhuanxingbenshenbuwanquanjinjinshiyouyushijiandaozhide，danshitashiyigefeichangzhongyaodebiaozhi。zheigebiaozhishi2022nian2yue24haofashengdeewuchongtu，kanshangquzhishiyigediquchongtu，danshitadexiangzhengyiyifeichangqiang，zheigeshijianbenshenyijibeihousuoyinhandeshenyuanbianhuakenenghuichixuhenduonian。

zheigeshijianshilianggeguojiadediquchongtu，womenbajintianhuaticonglianggeguojiabenshenqingkuangzuoyigezhankai。xiankanewuliangguodangshizaishijiejingjibantudediwei，gdpjiaodukanlianggeguojiazhanbibushitaida，paimingdi11hedi71，kanshangqusihushiwuzuqingzhongdeguojia。congquanqiushijiemaoyigejulaikan，sihuzheilianggeguojiayebushineimezhongyao，eguoyehao，wukelanyehao，zaizhenggeshijiemaoyigejuzhongzhanbizhishigeweishudebaifendianshang，dajiazhidaozhongguoshidiyi。

conggangcailianggedadejingjizhibiaokan，sihuzheilianggeguojiabuneimezhongyao，congfenxiangkanshibijiaoyouyingxianglide，bijiaozhongyaodesangefenxiangshi：nengyuan、liangshi、kuangchan。hongsedaibiaowukelan，lansedaibiaoeluosi。zheiyigefenxiangkanbijiaozhongyao，tebieshinengyuan，eluosizhanbibijiaoda，tadebodonghuiyingxiangzhenggeshijiejingjigeju。

jiexialaikansangepinleizaishijiejingjidediwei，shouxiankannengyuan，eguodenengyuanchukouzhanshijiezongmaoyiede12%，tianranqizhan21%，zheishihengaodezhanbi。eguonengyuanduiyushijiegeguodeyingxiang，zheilizuoyigeliebiao，oumengduitadeyilaiyidufeichanggao，1/3yishang。meiguobenzhishangjiangshibuyilaiyutade，meiguodenengyuanwanquankeyizijizizu，erqiehaikeyichukou。zhishijieduanxingdeyixiezhengceyuanyindaozhi，chongtuqianyouyixieeguojinkou。zhongguoyou16%dejinkouelaiziyueluosi，ruguojinkouzongeshi100%dehua，16%laiziyueluosi。

jiexialaikanliangshi，zheilianggeguojiazaishijiegejuzhongdouzhanyouyixizhidi，danshicongzonglianglaikan，tamenyebushineimezhongyao。liangshichanliangyigeshipaimingdi4，yigeshipaimingdi9，danshikanjinchukoutamendezongliangbingbushitaida，tamenkendingbushijinkoudaguo，liebiaoshangmeiyoutamen。congchukoushangkan，ruguojinkanzongliangsihutamenyebuneimezhongyao，zaichukoupaimingzhongtamenyemeiyoupaizaiqian10，shibushiyiweizhetamenbuzhongyaoni？yebuwanquanshi。haishikansangetamenbijiaozhongyaodechanpin：damai、xiaomai、yumi，zheisanxiangtamengezidouzaishichangzhongzhanyouyixizhidi。xiaomaieryan，eluosipaimingdi3，wukelanpaimingdi9，damaiyigedi1，yigedi7，yumiwukelanbijiaozhongyaopaimingdi9，eluosibutaizhongyao。suoyiliangshishangyeyou3gepinzhong，tamenzaishichangzhonghaishiyoubijiaozhongyaodediweide。

jiexialaikanzheisangechanpindechukouqingkuang，xiaomaieluosichukoudi1，wukelandi5，zheigebijiaozhongyao。damaishixiaopinzhong，danshitamenpaiminghenkaoqian，di2hedi1，yumiyigedi4，yigedi11。tamenhaishibijiaozhongyaodechukouguo。

zheishidagaibeijing，womenxianlejielianggeguojiazaizhenggejingjigejuzhongdediwei，jiexialaishijintianhuatizhongdian，tamenlianggeguojiadechongtuduishijiegejudechongtuzainali？zuoweixiangzhengdequanqiuhua2.0daodiyiweizheshenme？

womenbaewuchongtukanchengshijie2.0yu1.0defenshuiling，shijianyouzhengyi，weilesiweijianjiexingbufangzheimekan。ewuchongtuzuoweiyigebiaozhidiandehouguoshishenmeni？jinqihouguoshinengyuanyuliangshigongyingliandeposun，zhijiejieguoshidajiakandaodeliangnianzuoyoushijianoumeidegaotongzhang，yinweinengyuanjiageshangshengyihoucufayixiliedewenti，liansuofanyingxialaijiushioumeigaotongzhang。yuanqihouguoquanqiuhua2.0yiciweibiaozhidengchang。shenmeshiquanqiuhua2.0ni？wolijieshijiyujiazhiguandequanqiuhua，zhenggeshijiejingjigejujiangjiyuwenmingjiazhiguanzhongzheng，zheishiwojibenguandian，erewuchongtushizhongzhengdefenshuiling。

huiguyixiaquanqiuhua1.0shishenme？ruguoyigeguojiakaolvduiwaiguanxiyousangezhongyaoyinsudehua，womenliewei：anquan、jiazhi、liyi。guoquxiangdangzhangyiduanshijianlishizheiyangdeqingkuang，guojiaaheguojiab，butaijuedeanquanhejiazhishoudaogengdatiaozhanheweixie，yincigengduozhuyilifangzailiyishang，jiushijingjiliyi，zhiyaojingjiliyiyouzhonghe，jiukeyizaiquanqiuhuafengongzhongjinxinghezuo。sihuanquanhejiazhizaiguoyuguoguanxikaoliangzhongbingbuneimezhongyaole，yinweitamenjuedezheishikeyilisuodangrandefangzaiyibiandehuati，suirankenengbutongshenzhikenengyoumoca，danshisihubutaiyingxiangzhenggegejuheyouxiguize，zhiyaoyouliyijiukeyizuoshengyi，zheishi1.0deyisi。

suizheewuchongtufasheng，shijiefenchenglesangefeichangmingxiandezhenying，jianhuakanyidangshiewuchongtuzhihoulianheguojuxingyigeqianzejueyidetoupiaojieguo，dagaikeyikanchushijiegejudesangezhenying，yishitongqingwukelanyifang141geguojia，yieluosiweidaibiaode，eluosi、baieluosi、beichaoxian、xuliya、eliteliya，andisanzhenyingshisuoweizhonglifang，bijiaoyoudaibiaoxingdeshijinzhuansiguo。zheigezhenyingyushizheweilaiquanqiuhuajiazhiguanyuanquanguanyadaoliyiguandequanqiuhua。

diyizhenyingdeqingkuangshi68%dequanshijiedegdpchanchu，dierzhenyingshiyieluosiweidaibiaodebudao2%degdpwugeguojia，disangeshizhonglifangzhan30%gdp。zheishicongjingjikansangezhenyingliliangduibi。ruguoquanqiuhua2.0zoudaojiduandehua，qianchedajiadejiushiyidianjingjiliyi，zheigejingjiliyiruguomeiyouanquanguanhejiazhiguanshangxiangdangchengdudehexiedehua，liyizhijiandejiugejiubiandefeichangcuiruo。keyishuozaizheiyangdebeijingxia，quanqiuhua2.0shuranerzhi。

zaizheizhongdadeguanchashijiaoxia，womenkanyixiazheigeshijianduizhenggejingjigejudeyingxiang。xiankandui“wuzhen”deyingxiang，jiushiduitongqingwukelanyifangzhenyingdeyingxiang，sangepinlei：yuancailiao、nengyuan、liangshi。yuancailiaochukouzaizhenggetupianzhongshibijiaozhongyaode，liangshijiagesuizheewuchongtufashengyiduanshijianshibiaoshengde，danshiqishiliangshidezongchanlianghezonglianglaishuo，qishiewuzaishijiezhanbibuda，suoyiliangshijiageshangshenghenkuaipingfule。danshizheiyouyigeguocheng，pingfuguochengzhongchanshengledajiadanxin，dangshishijiegeguofenfenxianzhilezijidechukou，yizhiyudajiaduiweilaihuibuhuifashengshijiexingdejihuangyouyidingyoulv，dangshisuoweideg7zuzhiduiquanqiukenengfashengjihuangfachulejingshi。

zheizhangtushijingjixuerenzazhi，xiangduibijiaoquanweiyansudezazhi，duidangshiliangshijinzhangjinxingdefenxi。zheigefenxitidao，liangshiwentishichangniankunraoshijiedewenti，meiniandouyoujihuang，danshicongzongliangshangkanquanchanchudeliangshikeyiyanghuo150yiren，xianzaizhiyou80yigangdao。shijishangjihuangwentichanshengbingbushiliangshizongliangbuzudaozhide，yebuhuiyinweijubugongjichuxianbodongchanshenggenbenyingxiang。yinweiewuchongtushijishanggengduoshiyigezhuyin，liangshijiageshangzhangyehao，liangshibodongzhihoudaozhidejihuangyehao，shidiejiazailechangniandejihuang、zaihai、zhanzheng、zhengzhidongdangdaozhide。yincizheigeguanchashijiao，ewugongjizailiangshigongyinglianshangdebodongbingbuhuiduishijiechanshenggenbendechongji。

zaikannengyuan，ewuchongtuzhihou，zheigejiagejiushangshengle，eguochukouzhan12%defene，zheigebodonghuichanshengfeichangmingxiandeganrao。“wuzhen”zaizheiyangnengyuanbodongbeijingxiahuimianlinfeichangliangnanjuecedexuanze。yishituogou，yishibutuogou，butuogouyouqitayoulv，ertuogouyouzhijiededangxiatongku。dangshioumengduieguoyilaidagai1/3zainengyuanshang。zuizhongquanhengxiayezaiyidingyiyishangchuhuhenduorenfenxideyuliaozhiwai，zuihououmengjuedinggeneguotuogou，rucizhidadeyilaidudadaodejieguoshishenme？yinianbudaodeshijian，cong1/3dao0，zheishimuqiandexianzhuang。jibenshang“wuzhen”duiyueluosidenengyuanyilaiyijingbiancheng0le，zheihuidailaihendatongku，yishijiagebodong，yishiduanqiduangongwenti，chengbenfeichanggao。jinguanyouzheiyangdadekunnanzuihoukandaodejieguoshi，“wuzhen”duieluosinengyuanjibenbaituole。

kanewuchongtudui“echang”（eluosizhenying）dejingjiyingxiang，zheiwugeguojiajingjitiliangzhuyaotixianzaieguozhan1.4%，jibenshangeguogenshijiezhuliujingjitichuyuwanquantuogouzhuangtai，zhishaoduiyu“wuzhen”eryanshizheiyangde，youdongjiezichan、xianzhishangyewanglai、xianzhitourongzi、xianzhihuobizhifutixishiyongdeng。tadegdpkaishichengshouleyali。2014niandegdpshikelimiyashijianfashengdeshihou，7nianzengzhangbijiaohuanman，2021niancong79wanyizengzhangdao112wanyilubu，zheishibijiaohuanmandezengzhang。zhanzhengbaofade2022nian，yilubuji，tadegdpchengxiajiangqushi，qunianxiajiang2.1%，jinnianzaiqunianjichushanghaihuixiajiang2.5%，zheishianzhaoshijieoecddeyuce。

eluosideyingduixuanxiangxiangduibijiaoyouxian，muqianzhuyaoyilaiyushiyouchukou，zhicaizhongshiyoushuyunengyuanchukou，shuyuwangkaiyimiande，muqianhaizaikaozheigezhicheng。suizhe“wuzhen”duiyutadenengyuanyilaizhujianjianruo，huikandaotazhichengdeliduhuibiandi。conglubuzoushishangkan，keyikandaozheiyangdequshi。

ewuchongtuduizhongguodeyingxiang，gengguangfandeshiewuchongtuduizhonglifangdeyingxiang，baokuojinzhuansiguodeqitasanguodeyingxiang，yindu、nanfei、baxi。zaiguanzhuyixiaduizhongguojingjiyingxiang，xiankanyixiawomenzongdebantu，womenguojiashifeichangwaixiangxingdejingji，jingmaowanglaiduiwomenguojiafeichangzhongyao。shouxianshidongmeng、oumenghemeiguo，zhanlejinchukouzongede4chengyishang。dongmengdegdpzhishiwomende1/5，tazenmehuiyouneimedadejinchukoueni？yinweitashizuozhuankoumaoyidedifang，shijishangdongmenglaishuo，tadezhongyaoxingyinggaishipaizaioumenghemeiguozhihoude，zhishiyaozhuanzheimeyidao，suoyiguanxishangshipaimingdiyide。zhiyueluosihewukelanzaiwomenguojiazongpanzizhongbushineimezhongyao，xiaogeweishu。

xishuoshiyou，womenduieguoshiyoujinkouliangbijiaoda，zhanwomenguojiajinkouzongede15%-16%zuoyou，meinianshangxiabodong，zheishibijiaozhongyaodeshiqing。dajiazhuyi，zhongguodenengyuanjinkoushibijiaodade，womenzongxiaohaoeshiyou70%shijinkoude，tianranqi40%deshijinkoude，suoyoujinkouzhongduieguoyilaishi16%。eluosizuoweinengyuanshuchuguoduiwomenguojialaishuoshibijiaozhongyaode。

liangshi，you20%dezongxiaofeieshijinkoude，congnaxieguojiajinlaideni？diyishibaxidiershimeiguo，wukelanheeluosiyigezhan2%，yige1.6%，congliangshiguanxilaishuo，zheilianggeguojiaduiwomenlaishuodoubuzhongyao。

shuodaojigedanpin，tamenyoujigejiaosekeyibanyan，xiaomai、damai、yumi，danshizongliangdoubushineimedajiubuxishuole，zheisangepinleihaiyouyixiejingmaoguanxi，damaiheyumixiangduibijiaoduo，damaibijiaoduodeshicongwukelanjinkoude，geneluosilaiwangbutaiduo。

zongjiexia，liangshiduizheilianggeguojiadeyilaibushitaida，nengyuanfangmianzhidexixisiliang，womendenengyuanlaiyuanbijiaofensan，zheishicongguojiaanquanjiaodukaolv，zheishifeichangzhengquedexuanze。womenxianzaiduieluosinengyuanjinkouzongeyijingzhandaozonge16%，zheishihengaodefanwei，genshatechabuduo。yincizheigegejuxia，wozijipanduanbunengzengjiataiduole，congfensananquandejiaodushang。

zongjiexia，zhongguodenengyuanheliangshi，ewuliangguobingbushibuketidai，jinguannengyuanduieluosideyilaibijiaoda，danshiquanshijiefanweilaishuonengyuanlaiyuanbijiaoduo，yincibushishuofeiyilaiyumouyigeguojiabuke。zheixiekanshangqusuiranshiyaokaoliangdewenti，zhenzhenglaishuobuzhongyao，zhongyaodeshiquanqiuhua2.0shuranerzhizhongguoruhedingwei？zaizheigefenshuilingshangdexuanze，duiyuweilaideyingxiangcaishizhiguanzhongyaode。

mianduizheiyangdeqingkuang，womenzenmekan？dangewuchongtufashengzhiqian，womenkenenghuixiangxiangruguoewuzhijianyouchongtudehua，dingduoxianggelujiyashijianyiyang，xiangkelimiyashijianyiyang，jiushidiyuchongtueryi。danshizheigeshijianfashengzhihou，suihouzhankaideyixiliedeshijiegejuyanbian，duirenheyigeyouxicanyuzhelaishuodoushiyingxiangfeichangshenyuandezhuanzhedian，shouxianzheixieguojiabixumianduiyouyuchongtudailaidezhijiejingjihouguo，biruoumeimianduidegaotongzhang，birugongyinglianzhongzuquanshijiedoubixumianduide。

wodeyigeguancha，gengzhongyaodeshiyiweizhequanshijiejingjiyitihuaguochengfashenglezhuanzhe，bushinizhuan，chuxianlequanxindebianhua，zheigebianhuazhongmeiyigeguojiadoubixusikao，daodizaizheigexingejuzhongruhedingweiziji？congerzaixindeyouxidangzhongrengrannenggouweizijideguojiayingdezuidadeliyi，zheishijintianwomenzhenzhengyaotantaodewenti。

shijishangzheishiyigemeiyoudaandewenti，woyemeiyoudaan，zhishimianduizheigeqingkuang，yequeshizuoleyixiesikao。zaisikaoguochengzhong，shouxianyaokanyikanwomenguojiayoushenmeyoushi？womenguojiayoushenmeduanban？zhiyoubazijideyoushiheduanbanyouyigefeichangxiangxidelejiezhihou，caiyoukenengzuochuyigelixingdemingzhidepanduan。

shouxiankanzhongguodeyoushishishenme？jianeryanzhijiushishilixionghou，ruguokanzhenggeshijiebantu，womenjingjizongliangshiquanshijiepaimingdi2de。gangcaiyaocanshiyeshuodao，womenchanyelianshiquanshijiezuiqiangde，womenderenminsuzhijiujingjijiaodueryanshizuigaode。nidaoqitaguojiakanhuiyoufeichangshenkedetihuidengdeng，zheidoushiwomendeyoushi，suoyiwomenjingjitiliangda，chanyeleimuquan。haiyaotiyidian，womenduiwaiwanglaihenshen，duiwaijingmaozongezhangdpdebili30%yishang，zheizaidaguodangzhongyijingshizuigaodele，xiaoguoyoubilihengaode。yinweinigenbierenwanglai，bierenduinideyilaijiuda，zheishiyigeyinsu。

quedianshi，womenjingjishijinkouyilaixingjingji，waibiyilaixingjingji，jiushiguanjiancailiaoheguanjianjishushiguowaide。waibiyilai，womenzuowaimao，waimaojiaoyimeijiejiushiwaibi。womenjinchukouzongegengdpxiangbishizhan30%yishang。kejianduiwaijingmaolaiwangshiruhezhongyao，zheigeguochengzhongfeichangzhongyaodeyaosujiushihuobi，zaiwoguodeduiwaimaoyizhong，80%shijiyumeiyuan、ouyuandengwaibijiesuan，zhiyou20%shitongguorenminbijiesuan。jiuquanqiufanweieryan，renminbizaiguojimaoyizhongdezhanbishi2%dao3%，paimingdi5，meiyuanshi40%ji，ouyuanshi30%ji，jiexialaishiyingbangheriyuan，zhongguozhan2-3%。

yinciwomenduiwaiwanglaishen，jishiwomendeyoushiyeshiwomendeduanban。jutilaishuo，womendeshiyou70%shijinkou，tianranqi40%，tiekuangshi80%jinkou。liangshixiaohaozonge20%shijinkoude，gaoduanxinpian100%jinkou，gaoduanfadongji、xincailiao、shukongjichuang、gaoduandeshengwuyiyaodoushijinkoude。yincizheiyangdeqingkuangxia，womenbixuqingchuderenshidaozijideyoushiheduanban。

mianduizheiyangdeqingkuangwomenyinggairuhedingwei？zhongyangtichu，yaojixuduiwaikaifang，damenyaoyuekaiyueda。gaigekaifangruzhangjianghuangheshuibuhuidaoliu，woxiwangshizheiyangzi。jutiyouliangdian，yishineibulaishuo，jiefangweiguanhuoli，baokuojianzhengfangquan。weiguancengmian，rangmeixiaofeizheheqiyejianeixinchongmanxiwang，zhiyouweiguandexibaojideshitizhenzhengyouxinxin，chongmanlefendoudejingshenhechongjingdeshihou，zheigejingjicaihuiyouhuoli；congwaibulaishuo，yaojinliangweichiliangxinghuanjing，shenshidushi，zeshanerxing，jutishiyaochixudeshenduderonghequanqiudejingjiti，zheishiwomenguojiazhongyangzhengfufeichangmingquedejuece。yucitongshi，canyuweihuwanshanheshengjiquanqiuhuadeyouxiguize。zuihouyigeshichixutuijinrenminbideguojihua，zheishizhangyuandemubiao。

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tebiemingxiebencishengdianzhanlvehezuohuobanmeisaidesi-benchi。shenweiqichedefamingzhe，meisaidesi-benchijishilvsechuangxindexianxingzhe，youshijiandingdejianxingzhe。meisaidesi-benchijiang“kechixudefazhanzhidao”guanchuanyuqichejiazhiliandegegehuanjie，yigaodushuzihuadeqicheshengchanhuanjieshixianzuidadetoumingdu，congertishengshengchanxiaolv，xiangshixiantanzhonghedemubiaowenbuqianxing。tongshi，meisaidesi-benchilizuzhongguokehushuzihua、shenghuohuadeyongchexuqiu，buduandiedaikehutiyanshengtai。meisaidesi-benchichundianeqszuigao813gonglicltcchundianxuhang，jini0jiaolvdejiayusongchigan。dutedegongxingcheshensheji，fuyijiashicangqianzhibujujiwufengcheshen，chengjiuchuangjilude0.20cdchaodifengzuxishu。yufengweiban，yudianerxing，dangdiandongyuhaohuajiaohui，jiayuzizaiyuxin。