zuoweiguoneilingxiandeyuanchuangcaijingmeiti，shanghaibaoyejituan | jiemianxinwenyu2023nian12yue13rixingqisanzaishanghaizhongxindasha2loudayanhuiting3（pudongxinqulujiazuiyinchengzhonglu501hao）jubanle2023【jiemiancaijingshengdian】，huachenzibendongshizhanghuahaibofabiaozhutiyanjiang：chanyefazhanyutouziluoji。tebiemingxiebencishengdianzhanlvehezuohuobanmeisaidesi-benchi、xueshuzhichishanghaijiaotongdaxueshanghaigaojijinrongxueyuan。

以下为华宸资本董事长华海波主旨演讲实录：

huahaibo：ganxiejiemian，ganxieshanghaibaoyejiwomenfenxiangdejihui，gangcailiangweilaoshiconghongguancengmianduizhenggeshijiexingshiheshijiegejuzuolefenxi。womenshiminyingqiye，neimecongweiguanshijiaoduichanyefazhanzuoxiezijiderenshihejianjie，suoyijintianwofenxiangdezhutijiushi“chanyefazhanyutouziluoji”。

zhongguogaigekaifangjishiniandefazhanmoshi，yejiushichuantongjingjimoshibijiaojiandan，jibenshangshifangdichanjijianjiaqitachanye，tuidonglegaigekaifang40niandefazhanhefanrong。xianzaimianlinjingjifazhandexinwenti，womenguojiacengmiankaishibujuxinjijian，qizhongzhongdianfazhandelingyujiushifazhanshuzijingji、lvsejingji。weishenmehuiyouzheiyangdegejuni？womencongneiyinhewaiyinlianggejiaodufenxi。

neiyinjiaodu，diyi，zhongguojingjifazhandezhouqixianxiang。zhongguojingjifazhanyouyidingzhouqixing，jinrongzhouqiyoufudaifangdichanzhouqi，gangcaiyaolaoshiyeshuole，fangdichanzhanzhongguoguominjingjibizhong，zhangerencaifubizhonghenda，jinrongzhouqiyoujiadalezheizhongganggandezuoyong。dangfangdichanxingyefazhantingzhi，huozheshuofangdichanxiaxingqushideshihou，jinronggangganjiujiadalezheizhongfumianzuoyong。

第二，人口红利，改革开放我们承接了全世界中低端的产品的生产、承担了世界产业转移，这种情况到2018年出现新的状况，我们的人口增长，尤其是新人口带动的增长，出现负增长的状态。我们现在新生人口年增长基本上是八九baiwan，zhengtichushenglvshiyidianjideshuiping，zheiyangdechushenglvheouzhou、hanguo、eluosijibenshangshidadaoyigezhuangtai。womendejingjiheshehuimianlinribendefazhanzhuangtai，gaoduanpinbuguooumei，diduanpinbuguoxinshengdedongnanyaguojiahuozhexinshengdeguojia，zheixieqingkuangshicushiwomenzijigaibianfazhanmoshideneiyin。

waiyinfangmian，hulaoshiganggangjiwomenzuolehenhaodejiangjie，quanshijiegejuyijingfazhandao2.0jieduan，hendayinsushizhongguogenmeiguodegdpdebizhongyehuichengxianyigexiangduijiejindeguocheng，dajiakandaowomenxianzaishishijiedierdaguojia，danshizhenggezhongguogdpzhanmeiguodebizhongyijingshilishishangzuijiejindeyigezhuangtai。ruguoshuowomenconggoumailipingjiadejiaodulaishuo，shijieyinxingjichuwomendegdpyijingshimeiguode1.25bei，yijingchaoguolemeiguo。tongbukanriben、yindugenmeiguoxiangbi，zhongguoshiyizhidudadekaojinmeiguo。shijiejingjidebiange，jin600niandelishizaidiyihedierfashengzhuanbiandeguocheng，jibenshangshitongguozhanzhengfangshihuozhebiandongfangshi，jinxingdediyihedierzhijianhuiyouyixiejiaoti。dangjinwomenmianlinzhemeiguodeweizhuidujie，zhuyaoshiwomenyingxianglemeiguodeshengyihechanyefazhan，tayeyoufanzhicuoshi，zheishiwaibucuoshi。keyishuomeiguochanyezhengceyizhishihenlianguande，youdadeshengchanmailuo，xiangerzhanzhihoudeyixiliezhengce，baokuodaobashiniandaideshihoushizenmegaoribende，jibenyitongyangdefangshigaowomen，zengjiajinkouguanshui，zuoshichangbupinghengdemaoyijinyun，hedangjinduizhongguodezhicaicuoshijibenshiyiyangde。baideng2022niandexinpianyukejifaan，jibenshangxianzhilehuawei、zhongxingwomendekejichanyedefazhanpingjing，duizhongguodekejichanyefazhanqilehendadexianzhizuoyong。

基于内因和外因，意味着我们国家的发展，要发展科技附加值更高的，而且要自主发展，自主可控delianggechanyezuoweizijidezhuyaochanye，zheiyeshiwomenfazhanshuzijingjihexinjingjidedongyin。meiguoyouchanyezhengce，zhongguoyouzijidezhanlvedingli。womenyouzijide5nianfazhanjihua，womendaoxianzailaishuo，yijingjinxingdaoleshisiwufazhanguihua，womenzaishibadadeshihou，yejiushi2015niantichulezhongguozhinengzhizao2025，womentiqian10nianzuolechanyebuju，meiguofaxianzheizhongchanyebujugenmeiguoyoushichanyexiangzhonghedeshihoujiukaishijinxinglemaoyihekejishangdefengsuo。jinxienianwomenzuolehenduochanyebujuhechutailehenduochanyezhengce，baokuoershidayetichuzhongguozaikeji、shuzijingji、lvsejingjifangmiandegouchengheyoushi。

zaichanyediedaiguochengzhong，womenzhuyaojinxingdeshishuzichanyehuahechanyeshuzihua，zheiyeshijiyuzhongguochuantongyoushixingyefazhandeyanxu，birushuojiyuhulianwang、wulianwangzuodeyixiechanyebuju。

zhengtishangzheishiwomendadetouziluoji。zaizheigetouziluojizhixia，womenbazhenggexingyezuoleyigexiangxiandefenlei，quedingnaxieshiwomendeyoushichanye，naxieshigenjuzishendejihuihetouzizhouqierzuodetouzixiangxian。biruxinnengyuanqiche、guangfu、bandaotimouxielingyu、shengwuyiyaodeng，zheixiedoushiwomenzijifazhanyoushidechanye。zaijutigouchenglimianyougenjuxingyebutongdemaoli，jinyibuzuoxiangxianfenlei，yihengyizongchanshenglexianzaichanyedegoucheng。

zheigetubiaozuoleyigehuizong，yigechanyelidejinkouhechukouzhijiandebizhongkeyikanchuwomendeyoushichanye，biruguangfuchanyewomenjibenshangshimaiquanqiude，jibenshangshiquanqiuzaimaiwomendeguangfuchanye。bandaotilingyuwomenyoushimaiquanqiu，yinweiwomenzijizheigexingyedefazhanyouyidingzhouqi，suoyimeiyoubanfazhinengmaiquanqiu。qichechanyezaiyuanlaimaiquanqiudeqingkuangxiadaoxianzaimaiquanqiudezhuanbianguochengzhong。

birubandaotilingyu，womenzaigegehuanjiezhongdoushiqianquede，anzhao2022niantongjishujulaikan，womenzaibandaotiziyouhualvzhan19%。xianzaihuaweikeyizijixiaopiliangshengchan，zhenggeliantiaoliwomengenchuantongguojiabaokuowomendetaiwandiqu、rihan，yiranshixuexixiaohuaguocheng。zheishiwomenzijidehuizong，baokuohuapianji、xianyingshebei、guangkejideng。2019nianzhiqianhuozhe2017nian，women2015nianfabu2025zhinengzhizaodeshihou，womendexinpianguoyouhualvgengdi。dangshiwomenzuoleyigebinggouzhongzujihua，2014nianzuoleyigeshougou，dangshizhengjianhuishuoyaoduibiquanxingyepingjunshougoushuju，womendangshizhaoduibiaoqiyedeshihou，quanshichangzhiyouyijiazuoxinpianshejideqiyejiaoguominjishu。xianzailaishuo，womentongguokechuangbandetuichu，zaibandaotideshejilingyulimian，xianzaiyijingyoule346jiabandaotideshejiqiye，guoqianyishizhideyeyoushijiazuoyou，xiangzhongxinguoji、weiergufendeng，zheigexingyetongguowomenshinianzhefu，xianzaiyijingyouzijidechubudechanyeguimo。

zaichanyefazhanguochengzhong，suoyoukejiqiyeshiyiyanfaweizhudaoxinggouchengde。qiyeyanfahezhengfuyanfazaizhenggechanyezhongqidaotuidongzuoyong。qiyeyanfakeyikandao，meiguoshiyaoyaolingxiande，yeshuomingkejichanyeyizhiyouzijineiyanfazhanfangxiang。haodekejiqiyejibenzaimeiguo，meiguoyeyonglequanqiuzibenzaifazhanzijidekejiqiye。

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chanyegouchenglaishuo，zhengfuduixingyedezhichengyouhenduogouchengyinsu，birushuoxindaiyouhui、rencaibutie、zhengfubutie。zhengfuchanyezhengcezhongyouhuilidubutong，meigeguojiayouzijidutedeyoushi，meiguogengduoyuanhuayidian，suoyiyougezichanyezhengcezhichi、xindaiyouhui、zhengfuchanyejijindeng。zaiwomenwenhuashuxinghejingjijiegougouchengfeichangxiangsiderihanbaokuotaiwandiqu，yanfazhichiwangwangshitongguozhengfuchanyejijinfangshitouzicujinchanyegoucheng。

qierudaowomenzijidezhuti，womenshizuozhengfuchanyejijinguanlide，zhuyaoshitouzikejileiqiye。womenxuanzelexingyetouzifangxiangdeqingkuangxia，genzhengfulianheyiqizuozhengfuchanyejijin，zheizhongtouzimoshiwomenyouruxiadetouzibihuan，diyi，shouxianzhongguoyaoqiuniyaoyousimupaizhao，biruhuachenzibenzheiyangde。dierxuanzetouzifangxiang，biruwomenjiuyizhinengzhizao2025weizhuyaofangxiang，yindaoyixiechanyeqiyezongbuheyanfazhongxinluodidaowomenguanlidedifangzhengfujijinsuozaidi。disanshilianhedifangzhengfu，zhongguoshiyigedianxingdeguanbenweiguojia，suoyoutouzilibukaizhengfuzhudaoxingtuidongde，dabufendetouzijigoulimiandouyouzhengfuchanyetouzizailimianzuoyixietuidonghezhudaoxingzuoyong。tongshi，womenyehuibangzhutouziqiyeshenqingdifangzhengfuchanyezhengce，birujifang、jidi、jizhengcedeshiqingzhengfuweizhudao。disi，womentouziyixiexinxinglingyu，birushuozhinengzhizao、xinpianbandaoti、shengwuyiyaodeng，womenshiyishangshiweimudede，shixianzibentuichu。diwu，ranhoujixulianhechanyejituan，zaidangdizuochanyebuju，chixubangzhuqiyezuochanyetouzi、zhongzubinggou、shougouzichandenggongzuo。

guquantouzijijin，duizhenggeshehuilaishuohuizongle6ge“ye”，duigudonglaishuojianye、duituanduilaishuoshiye、duijijinlaishuojianliyigejiye、duidifanglaishuowanchengxiangduigaoduandejiuye、duidifangzhengfujianchenglechanye、duizhenggeshehuilaishuowanchenglechanye。youqishiwomengendifangzhengfuhezuo，xianzaiquanguozhengfuzaizuochanyezhuanxing，zhuanxingzuihaodeshiyishanghaiweizhongxindezhangsanjiaodiqu，queqiedeshuoyishanghaihongqiaoweizhongxindezhangsanjiaodiqu，fusheyixiaoshijingjiquan，xingchenglefeichanghaodechanyejiqun。shanghaigenbeijingbutong，beijingjiaohuanbeijingpinqiongquan，libeijingyuejinyueqiong，quanbeibeijingxijinqule。danshishanghaihezhangsanjiaodiquwanquanshichanyeshifangguocheng，wanchengxingchenglechanyejiqun，zheigechanyejiqunguochengzhongzibenjiuqidaoleyidingzuoyong。womenjingchanghuizaibei、shang、shenwaqiyedaozhangsanjiaoquyuzuotouziheluodi。zheishiwomenzijidetouzigoucheng，womenjijinyededaoleqinghuagenfudanlianggegaoxiaodechanxueyanzhichi，zaidangdizuoletouziluodideshiqing。

huachenzibenxianzaizhuyaoguanlijiaxingdifangzhengfudechanyejijin，jiaxingshilishanghaizuijindexingzhengquyu，pingjunershijifenzhongnenggoudaojiaxing。bujinshijiaxingdiqu，zhenggezhejiangdiqu、jiangsudiqushizhongguojingjizuihuoyuediqu。zhengfuyoudadetouziliducujinchuantongqiyezhuanxing。huachenzibenzheixienianyewanchengleshijijiagongsidedeshangshi，womenweiraokejichanyezuodebuju，bujinzuoguquantouzi，haizuotouzishichangbinggou，xiwangzaihouxudefazhanguochengzhongjixudedaodajiadezhichi，yudajiaxingchenggengduodehudong。

谢谢！

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【jiemiancaijingshengdian】zuweihuilianxifangshi huodong@jiemian.com

【关于梅赛德斯-奔驰】

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