zuoweiguoneilingxiandeyuanchuangcaijingmeiti，shanghaibaoyejituan | jiemianxinwenyu2023nian12yue13rixingqisanzaishanghaizhongxindasha2loudayanhuiting3（pudongxinqulujiazuiyinchengzhonglu501hao）jubanle2023【jiemiancaijingshengdian】。shangdaozixundongshi、hehuorenlanghuafabiaozhutiyanjiang：cuxiaofeibeijingxiadeditanxiaofeiqushi。tebiemingxiebencishengdianzhanlvehezuohuobanmeisaidesi-benchi、xueshuzhichishanghaijiaotongdaxueshanghaigaojijinrongxueyuan。

以下为商道咨询董事、合伙人郎华主旨演讲实录：

xiexiezhuchiren。feichangrongxingnengcanjia2023【jiemiancaijingshengdian】，jinnianyeshishangdaozixunlianxudibacicanyujiemiancaijingshengdian，meiyiniandouzaizheigeshijianhezuofabu《zhongguokechixuxiaofeibaogao》。guoqubanianli，shangdaozixunhejiemianxinwenchixugenzongzhongguokechixuxiaofeizoushi，tongguoyanjiujishangyeqiyejiqitaxiangguandejigou，liruzhengfuxiangguanbumentigongdongchahejuecezhichi。womenyexiwang，jiexialaifabudedongchabaogao，yekeyijiguoneidecuxiaofeigengjiji、gengzhengmiandecujinxiaoyi。

tongguoyujiemianxinwenkaizhanzhanlvehezuo，womenchixugenjinguoneigongzhongduikechixuxiaofei、lvsexiaofei、ditanxiaofeiderenzhi、taiduhexingwei。womenyehuigenjushixiaredian，baxiaofeiqushifangzaizhenggeshidaibeijingxiazuozhengtiyanjiu。qunian，jieheershidadexinfangxiang，womenbayanjiuketidingwei“gaozhiliangfazhanxiadeditanfazhanyanjiu”。jinnianlaikan，cuxiaofeishifeichangzhongyaodezhengcedaoxiang，guoneiquanniandouzaichixutuidongxiaofeishengjihecujin，jinniandeyanjiuyehuizaixindezhengcebeijingxialaikanditanhekechixuxiaofeidefazhanyanjin。jinniandekechixuxiaofeiwomenyouxinghuodelemeizanchendezanzhu。meizanchenchixuguanzhuxiaofeilingyudekechixuxiaofei，zaiyanjiudeguochengzhongyejilewomenhenduoguanchahecelvezhicheng。

shouxianwomenlaikanyikanweishenmeguanzhukechixuxiaofeihuati？guoqujinianqihoubianhuayuelaiyuechengweiquanqiufeichangzhongyaodefengxian，genjushijiejingjiluntan《2023quanqiufengxianbaogao》，jiduantianqi、qihoubianhuadengjiangchengweiweilaishinianzhizuizhongdadefengxianlingyu。jinnian，guojiqixiangzuzhiyeyuce，2023nianhenkenengchengweiyoujiluyilaizuiredeyinian，guoqu10yuefenyoukenengshizuireyigeyue。jinnian7yuefen，huabeichuxianlefeichangzhongdadeziranzaihai，baokuogaore、hongshuideng。jiduantianqiyuelaiyueshenkediyingxiangmeigerenderichangshenghuo。

meiyinianlianheguohuanjingshuyehuifabupaifangchajubaogao。jinnianfabudetanpaifangchajubaogaoli，yuce2030nianquanqiutanpaifangliangbixuxiajiang28%-42%，cainenggoushixianbalixieding，daobenshijimoshixian1.5dudao2dudekongwenmubiao。kongzhitanpaifangliangxiajiangyiweizheshengchanshenghuofangshiquanmianzhuanxing，duimeigerenlaishuodouyiweizhexinbianhua。womenyezhidao，xiaofeizaicujinxitongxingdeyingduiqihoufengxianzhongyoufeichangzhongyaodezuoyong。ipccdiliucipinggubaogaoli，tebiepinggulexuqiuceduiyingduiqihoubianhuadezhongyaojiazhi，baogaozhongtidao2050niangaibianshengchanhexiaofeimoshi，jiukeyirangwenshiqitijianpai40%dao70%。ruguozheigemubiaokeyishixian，duibalixiedingdezhengtikongwenmubiaoyoufeichangdadecujinzuoyong。

zaihongguanzhengcefangmian，guojiayezaiquanlicujinlvsexiaofei，baokuo《cujinlvsexiaofeishishifangan》，zheishi2022nianchuyouguojiafaganweizhudaofabude，2023nian7yuefenfabude《guanyuhuifuhekuodaxiaofeidecuoshi》，yejianglvsexiaofeizuoweifeichangzhongyaodecuxiaofeishouduan。

esgtouzilinianyeshoudaoyuelaiyuebeitouzizhedeqinglai，zaitamendetouzijiazhiquxiangli，huibaqiyezaihuanjingshehuihezhilifangmiandebiaoxianzuoweifeichangzhongyaodekaochafangxiang。duiyuqiyelaishuo，zaikechixufazhanfangmianbiaoxianyouyihuihuodeqianzaidetouzijihui。dangranruguonenggoudachengladonglvsexiaofeidemubiao，duiyuqiyejitouzizhelaishuo，zaikechixufazhanfangmiandetouzihuibaolvyekeyihuodegengyouxiaodebaozhang。

womenyekandao，nianqingyidaidexiaofeizheduiyulvseqihoubianhua、shengwuduoyangxingdengquanqiuxingyitideguanzhudu，yezaibutingditisheng。yuelaiyueduodeqiyezaichengdanshimingheshehuizerenfangmian，yezaizuochujijidexiangying。

womenmeiyiniandeyanjiudouhuiyingyongxiaofeizhexingweiyanjiufangfa，zaikechixuxiaofeiyanjiuzhongwomenyonglesicasmoxing，jiushixiaofeizhecongrenzhijianlidaoxingweichanshengzaidaoxiaofeihoudefenxiangzhengtiguocheng。womenyexiwangtongguozheiyimoxingdeshiyong，keyikandaocongganzhi，xingquchansheng，daojianlilianjieyijigoumaixingweidengxiaofeizhelvchengquancheng，daodishishenmezuaixiaofeizhekaizhanditanxiaofei，youyounaxiequdongyaosu？womenxiwangkeyidongchazheixiefangxiang，congergengyouxiaodicujinxiaofeizhekaizhankechixujiditanxiaofei。

jinnianyanjiushoujidaole4000fenyangben，yangbenliangxiangduijiaoda，renqunfenbuyebijiaojunheng，wulunshicongxingbie、nianling，hunlian、yuer，yijixuelishourushuipingyijishoufangquyufenbulaikan，douhuiyouyigebijiaojunyundefugai，yincifenxijieguojueyoutongjiyiyishangdexianzhuxing。

zaijieguofangmian，shouxianwomenyaokanyixiasheizaiyinlingditanxiaofei。womenhuibaditanxiaofeidequntifenweisanleiqunti，shouxianshimeiyourenheditanxiaofei，muqianyequefaxingqudequnti，womenbazheiyangdequntidingyiweiqianliqunti。diergequntishiyijingduoduoshaoshaocanyule，danshimeiyouxingchengxiguan，womenchengzhiweicanyuqunti。disanleishibujinzijijianxingditanxiaofeiyedaidongzhouweirencanyuditanxiaofeidechuangbianqunti。zhengtiyanjiuzhongyou80%yishangdequntishicanyuhechuangbianqunti，tamenrenweizijizairichangshenghuozhongduoduoshaoshaozaikaizhanditanxiaofei。tongguoyixiejiaochafenxihuifaxian，qihoucanyudexingdongquntizaixingbieshangmeiyoutaidachayi，nvxingchuyucanyuhechuangbianjieduandeshoufangzhe（86%）lvegaoyunanxing（83%）。congyuerqingkuanglaikan，womenfaxianyouhaizidequnti，tebieshilianggehaiziyishangdejiating，ditanxingdonghuigengduoyixie。hunlianqingkuangfangmian，keyikandaoyihundequntihuigengduocanyuqihouxingdong。ciwai，xueliyuegao、shouruyuegao，ditanxingdonggengjijizhudongyixie。

dierleiditanxiaofeiyinlingzhewomenchengzhiweiqihouganzhizhe。meigerenzairichangshenghuozhongyijingganshoudaoleqihoubianhuasuodailaideyingxiang，womenxiangxinyueshenkediganzhidaobianhuaderen，zaixingdongyiyuanshangyehuibimeiyouganzhidaodequntigengqiangyixie。jinniandeyanjiuzhong，youchaoguoyibandeshoufangqunti（56.64%）yijingganzhidaoqihoubianhuasuodailaideyingxiang。womenshoujidaoledagai2000duogelaizixiaofeizhedefankui，keyikandaolianxugaowen、eerninuo、ganhan、wenshixiaoying、ziranzaihaidengdouchengweilexiaofeizhetijilvhengaodeguanjianci，baokuobeijingtedabaoyu，yechengweigongzhongyanzhongqihoubianhuasuolaideyingxiang。

zailaikanrenqunfenbu，dajiakeyikandaozaichuangbianquntili，ganzhidaodeqihoubianhuaquntigengduo，zheiyezhengshuomingleganzhichengduyuegao，xingdongdeyiyuanhecanyudugengqiang。tongshikeyikandao，yuerquntizhong，yanghaizideshoufangdeduiyuqihoubianhuadeganzhigengshenkeyixie。nianlingcengmianshang，womenkeyifaxianbijiaocuiruodequnti，ru51suiyishangdequntiduiqihouganzhigengjiaqianglie。ciwai，chengshiyuefada，ganzhiyueduo；shouruyuegao，ganzhichengduyuegao；xueliyuegao，ganzhiyuegao。

womenyefaxian，henduoxiaofeizhenenggoumingquetichucuxiaofeiheditanxiaofeizhijiandeguanxi。dagaiyou61%dequntirenwei，cujinditanxiaofeiyouyiyujianshaoxiaofeidailaidehuanjingyingxiang。womenyekeyikandaohenduoxiaofeizheyijingrenshidaoxiaofeikenenghuijihuanjingheqihoudailaiqianzaideyingxiang。lingwai，you3chengdexiaofeizherenweiditanxiaofeishicuxiaofeidezhongyaozhuashou。

womenmeiniandouhuirangxiaofeizhelaisikaoditanxiaofeiyukechixufazhanmubiaozhiqiandeguanxi，rangdajiaxuanzeditanxiaofeihelianheguo17xiangkechixufazhanmubiaodeguanlian。wangnianwomenhuifaxian，gengduoxiaofeizherenweiqihouyuditanxiaofeihuigenqihoudemubiaozhijiexiangguan。jinnianbijiaodadebianhuashi，yuelaiyueduoxiaofeizhekandaoditanxiaofeiyubaokuojichusheshijianshe、kechixudegongyehechuangxindengjingjilingyudemubiao，jiquebaojiankangyufuzhi、weimeigerentigongganjingdeshuiheweishengdehuanjingdengshehuilingyudemubiaozhiqiandeguanlian。jiuxuanxiangfenbulaikan，ditanxiaofeizheduiyubutongxuanxiangdeyingxiangligengweijunhengdifenbu，ruyingduiqihoubianhuayixiangcongquniande70.25%jiangzhi58.75%。

womenyerangdajiazijidingyizenmeyangsuanditanxiaofei。ruguoxiaofeizhebuzhidaoshenmeshiditanxiaofei，neimexianeryijianditanxiaofeiyehennanbeidiaodong。guanchadajiadefankuihuifaxian，jiangjin70%dexiaofeizherenweitongguochanpinshangdekechixurenzhengbiaoshi/biaoqiankeyibeirendingweishiditanchanpin。suoyiditan/kechixuchanpinderenzhengbiaoqianduiyuxiaofeizhelaishuoshiyigefeichangzhongyaodebiaozhun，weilaiwulunshicongguojiadecengmian，haishiduipinpailaishuo，kenengdouxuyaoqianghuaguanzhu。ciwai，xiaofeizheyehuiguanzhuqiyezaiesghekechixufazhanfangmiandexuanchuanyijiqiyeditanzhutideyingxiaohuodongyijiqitaxiaofeizhedefankuideng，zheixiedoushitamenbianbiezijidexiaofeishibushiditanxiaofeidezhongyaofangshi，danshouyaohaishikanbiaoqian。

womenyekandao，xiaofeizhehuoquditanchanpinhuozhefuwudexinxi，zhuyaoshitongguochuantongdemeijie。birushuoxianggonggongchangsuodeyixiechuanbomeijie，baokuodianshi、guangbo、baokandengfeichangzhuliudemeijie。chucizhiwai，yebaokuoshejiaopingtaihezaixiandedianshangpingtai、youshejiaoshuxingdehulianwangpingtaideng。womenyerangxiaofeizhetichujutidechuanboqudaoqudao，youguanyushejiaopingtai、zaixianlingshoudianshang、chanpinpinpai、mingxing、zongyidengwomendoushoujidaolexiaofeizhedefankui。tebiexuyaotichudeshi，xiaofeizhetijilehenduozaikechixu、ditanxiaofeichuanboshangbiaoxianjijideqiyepinpai，zheixiepinpaiqueshizaiditanfangmianyijingzuolefeichanghaodexuandaogongzuo，yeyingxiangdaolexiaofeizheduitamenderenzhi，zaiyidingchengdushangyetishenglexiaofeizheduitamenderenke。

womenyexunwenlexiaofeizherenweiditandexiaofeixinxishifoukeyiyouxiaoyindaotamendexiaofeixingwei？keyikandaochaoguo80%dexiaofeizherenwei，tamenkandaoleditanchanpindetuijianxinxiduitamenxiaofeijuecefeichangyoubangzhu。

kechixurenzhengbiaoshi/biaoqianzuoweixiaofeizhebianbiekechixuchanpindezhongyaotujing，zhengtilaikan，biaoshi/biaoqiandepujichengduhaibushifeichanggao，weilaihaixuyaogegebutongdejigoucujinbiaoqianchuanbo。ruguokanchanpindexifenpinlei，birushuoyishizhudengbutonglingyu，womenhuifaxianguojiacengmianzhudaodebiaoshi/biaoqianzaixiaofeizhezhongderenkedufeichanggao。biruyoujichanpinrenzheng、zhongguonengxiaobiaoshi，zheixieyijingzaishichangcengmianyoufeichangduoniandexuandao，xiangyingdejieshouduyefeichanggao。chucizhiwai，womenkandaozaishipin、jiajuriyongpin、fuzhuanglingyuyouyixiebiaoqianrenzhidubijiaogao，birulvsexianwei、youjifangzhipin、lvsechanpinrenzheng、lvsejianzhubiaoshi、suliaofenleibiaoshideng，zheixiedoushixiaofeizherenkedubijiaogaodeyixiebiaoqian。

womenyewenxiaofeizhe，tidaoditanchanpindeshihou，tamenhuishouxianxiangdaoshenmeyangdechanpinpinlei？paiqianwudadepinleibaokuozhipin、dianzidianqi、qichepeishi、shipinjiushuiyinliao、jiajuriyong。zheixiepinleiburanshirichangjiechudufeichanggaode，baokuozhipin、dianzidianqiheqichepeishi，buranshigenshengtaihuanjingyouqianzaiguanliande，birushuosenlinxiangguanyuancailiaochanpin，kenengyoutanhuidelianxiang；haiyoujiushiyongnengdesheshi，henrongyiheqihoubianhuahejianpaichanshengyingxiang，birudianzidianqideng。zheiyeshiweishenmetidaoditanchanpindeshihouxiaofeizhehuishouxianxiangdaozheixiepinlei。

naxieyinsuhuicushixiaofeizhegoumaiditanchanpinni？yifangmianshiguojiachangdao，yifangmianshijiazhiguancujin，haiyouxiaofeizheduiyugengkekaolaiyuanhegengyouzhichanpindesuqiu，xiaofeizhebujinguanzhuditanchanpinbeihoudehuanjingxiaoying，tongshiguanzhuchanpindezhiliangbiaoxian。bumaideyuanyinshinanyibianren，zheigegenbiaoqianpujiduyouzhijieguanxi，weilaiyaojixucujinbianshidudetisheng。haiyoujiagegaodekebanyinxiang，yijiditanchanpinxuanzeyouxian，biruchengbengulv、xiaofeizhejiechududegulv，zheixiedouxuyaoqiyezhidingxiangyingcelve，zhichituidongditanxiaofeixingweidefasheng。

shenmexinxikeyidadongxiaofeizhezheigewentidejieguoxianshi，qiyeyaotigonggengjiaqingxide、lianghuade、kekaodeditanchanpinxinxi，yaobachanpintanzujigengqingxidigongbujixiaofeizhe，shijishangjiazhiliankezhuisuzaiyidingchengdushangkeyibaozhengchanpinpinzhi，ciwai，xiaofeizheyefeichangkanzhongrenzhengdeyuancailiao。

haoxiaoxihehuaixiaoxi，xiaofeizhegengyuanyixiangxinnayige？dabufenxiaofeizhekandaoqiyezhengmianxiaoxihuigengyuanyigoumai，danshiwomenyekandaoleyoulefumianxiaoxihou，40%duodexiaofeizhehuixuanzebugoumai。ruguoqiyekeyigengzhudongdejinxingzhenggaidehua，huiyou40%dexiaofeizheyuanyixuanzexiangxinqiyebingqiejixugoumai。suoyixiangduiyuzhengmianxinxiduiyuxiaofeizhegoumaijuecedeyingxianglaishuo，，xiaofeizheduifumianxinxidedemingandugenggao，qiyeruguonenggougengzhengmianyingduifumianxinxijijizhenggai，yehuishoudaoxiaofeizheqinglai。

jinnianyigebijiaoyouyisidefaxianshi，ruguowomenduiditanchanpinsuoyougoumaiyinsujinxingzonghepingjia，birupinzhi、jiage、xinren、baozhuang、lvsebiaoxiandeng，huifaxianzaiyishizhuxingsuoyoupinleilimian，lvsehuanbaoditandoushifeichangzhongyaodegoumaiyinsu。lingwaiwomenfaxian，xiaofeizhejinnianduiyuditanchanpindeyijiachengdujieshouduyuelaiyuedi。shuominglianggewenti，yishiqueshicuxiaofeizaijinxingzhong，xiaofeizhejinglile3nianyiqinghou，xiaofeiheduiyuyijiadejieshouyiyuandouhuiyousuoxiajiang。lingwai，dangshichangshangyouyuelaiyueduodeditanchanpinhepinleixuanzehou，jiageyehuichixuhuiluo，zheiyeshixiaofeizheduiyuyijiajieshouchengduyousuoxiajiangdeyuanyin。zaijutilaikan，butongnianlingdequnti，birushuozhulidexiaofeiqunti，21suidao40suikeyigengjiajieshouyijia，shouruyuegaoyuenengjieshouyijia，xinyixianheyixianyeyuanyijieshouyijia。duiyuershouchanpineryan，dabufenxiaofeizheyuanyi4-6zhe，nianjiyuedadexiaofeizhebuyuanyijieshouershouchanpin。nvxingxiaofeizheduiershouchanpinjiageqidaigengdiyixie。haiziyangyuyueduo，duiershoujiageyuebumingan，huigengkanzhongershouchanpinzhilianghezijidehexinxuqiu。

gegepinpaidouzuolehenduoditanyingxiao，naxieshibeixiaofeizhejizhude？baokuomeide、biyadi、alibabadengpinpaizaishoufangzhezhongdouyouhengaodetijidu。duiyuzheixiepinpaieryan，ditanyingxiaoyijingkaishijianlizaixiaofeizhezhongderenkeyuyingxianglile。 womenyehuifaxian，yuelaiyueduodexiaofeizherenwei，tanzhanghushiyouxiaodiaodongtamenkaizhanditanxiaofeideyouxiaoqudong。womenwendao，ruguojitamenzhijiejianjiahuozhehuodetanjifen，xiaofeizhehuigengjieshounayige？huifaxianxiaofeizhegengjieshouzhijiejiangjia。qiyeweilaizuoditanyingxiaodeshihouyekeyikaolvzhijiedejiangjiahuozhezhekouyouhui，xiaofeizhedejieshouduyehuigengqiangyixie。。

henduopinpaizaizuochanpinhuishou，danxiaoguobingbushihenhao。womenyeshitutanjiu，daodizenyangcijixiaofeizhechanpinhuishoudexingwei？dabufenxiaofeizhexiwangzhijiefanxian。henduonianjidadequnti，xihuanzanyixiefeipinjinxingshoumai。ciwai，yidingyaoranghuishougengbianjie，keyizaiyigonglihuodongquneishezhihuishoudianhuoshangmenhuishou。wuzhihejingshencijiyefeichangzhongyao，keyitigongzengpinjixunzhangjianglideng。meizanchendeguangaixinshengjiushiyigetongguoxianshangxianxiaqudao，zuodefeichangyouxiaodehuishouxiangmu。

zaiyishizhuxingbutonglingyudeditanxingweiyegeyoubutong，youguanyu“yi”deditanxingwei，yifuzanyizanzaixi，zhongfushiyongbaozhuangdai，goumaizhilianghaode、naiyongfuzhuang，zheishixiaofeizhefeichangxihuandeditanxingwei。“shi”delingyuzhuyaoshixuanxiaofencai，bulangfeishiwu。“zhu”he“yong”delingyu，xiaofeizhezhuyaoxuanzejieshuijiedian、kongdiaodiaogaowendudeng。“xing”shipincheheshunfengche，yekandaozijiahechuzuchexuanzedehenduo，zheishiwomenshezhidexianjingti，henduoxiaofeizhehaishibuyuanyifangqibianjiexing，xiwangzijiachuxing。weilaiwomenxiwangyexiwangqiyenenggouzaijishushangcujingengdaguimodeditankezaishengnengyuandechuxingfangshi，congerkuodalvsechuxingxiaofei。

zaijinniandediaoyanzhong，womenkandaoyou62%deshoufangzheyouchaoguoyiniandeditanxiaofeijingli，xiangduiyuquniandejieguoyouxianzhudetisheng。duiyuditanxiaofeidefenxiangyefeichangguanjian，suizheyuelaiyueduocanyufenxiang，yehuiranghenduoderencanyudaoditanxiaofeizhong，womenjianyiyijingkaizhanditancujinxiaofeideqiyekaizhangengduodefenxiangxingdong。

zuihoujidajiayixietongguoyanjiuhuodedeqishi。tongguojinniandeyanjiu，womenjianyiqiyeyaoshouxianlejieditanrenqundingwei，womenyizhijiangcanyuchuangbianheganzhiqunti，xuyaodiaodongxiaofeiquntizhongdelingxianrenqun，tongguotamendeyingxianglidaidonggengduorencanyudaoditanxiaofei。ciwai，jutilaikansicasmoxing，kaizhangengduotuidongditanxiaofeixingweidecelve，birushuokuodabiaoqianbiaoshiyingyong，jijicanyuguojiadebiaozhunzhidingyijitongguobaozhuangmeijiekaizhanditanxinxichuandi，keyitishengxiaofeizheduiyuditanchanpindeganzhi。jianligaoxiaochuanbo，baokuojiqiangdiaoditanxiaofeilitayeqiangdiaolijidexinxichuandi；bujinguanzhuhuanjingxiaoyi，yeguanzhupinzhi、waiguandengjiazhidechuanbo，jiguanzhuzhengmian，yeguanzhufumianxinxidejijiyingdui。lingwaixuyaogenghaodelianjiexiaofeizhe，tongguoqudaohemeiticelvegengyouxiaodichudaxiaofeizhe。zuihouzaixingdongfangmian，keyikuodachanpinyanfajishangshilidu、bingtishengtishengxingjiabi。ditanchanpinkaifaxuyaohenduochengben，tongguokaizhanshidianhec2mxiaofeizhecanyuchanpindingzhidefangshi，jitongguohejiazhilianhuobanxietong，jiangdicaigouchengbenfangshi，chixushixianjiangbenzengxiao。zuihoushifenxiang，qiyekeyijianligengduoshequnbangzhuxiaofeizhekuodafenxiangyiyuan。

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